The utility of the rapid emergency medicine score (REMS) compared with SIRS, qSOFA and NEWS for Predicting in-hospital Mortality among Patients with suspicion of Sepsis in an emergency department

Risk Factors and Scoring Systems to Predict the Mortality Risk of Afebrile Adult Patients with Monomicrobial Gram-Negative Bacteremia: A 10-Year Observational Study in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

The mortality rate of afebrile bacteremia has been reported to be as high as 45%. This investigation focused on the risk factors and predictive performance of scoring systems for the clinical outcomes of afebrile patients with monomicrobial gram-negative bacteria (GNB) in the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of afebrile adult ED patients with monomicrobial GNB bacteremia from January 2012 to December 2021. We dissected the demographics, clinical pictures, and laboratory investigations. We applied five scoring systems and three revised systems to predict the clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

There were 600 patients included (358 males and 242 females), with a mean age of 69.6 ± 15.4 years. The overall mortality rate was 50.17%, reaching 68.52% (74/108) in cirrhotic patients. Escherichia coli was the leading pathogen (42.83%). The non-survivors had higher scores of the original MEDS (p < 0.001), NEWS (p < 0.001), MEWS (p < 0.001), qSOFA (p < 0.001), and REMS (p = 0.030). In univariate logistic regression analyses, several risk factors had a higher odds ratio (OR) for mortality, including liver cirrhosis (OR 2.541, p < 0.001), malignancy (OR 2.259, p < 0.001), septic shock (OR 2.077, p = 0.002), and male gender (OR 0.535, p < 0.001). The MEDS demonstrated that the best predictive power with the maximum area under the curve (AUC) was measured at 0.773 at the cut-off point of 11. The AUCs of the original NEWS, MEWS, qSOFA, and REMS were 0.663, 0.584, 0.572, and 0.553, respectively. We revised the original MEDS, NEWS, and qSOFA by adding red cell distribution width, albumin, and lactate scores and found a better predictive power of the AUC of 0.797, 0.719, and 0.694 on the revised MEDS ≥11, revised qSOFA ≥ 3, and revised NEWS ≥ 6, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The original MEDS, revised MEDS, revised qSOFA, and revised NEWS were valuable tools for predicting the mortality risk in afebrile patients with monomicrobial GNB bacteremia. We suggested that clinicians should explore patients with the risk factors mentioned above for possible severe infection, even in the absence of fever and initiate hemodynamic support and early adequate antibiotic therapy in patients with higher scores of the original MEDS (≥11), revised MEDS (≥11), revised NEWS (≥6), and revised qSOFA (≥3).

Better Performance of Modified Scoring Systems to Predict the Clinical Outcomes of Vibrio Bacteremia in the Emergency Department: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Vibrio is a genus of Gram-negative bacteria found in various aquatic environments, including saltwater and freshwater. Vibrio bacteremia can lead to sepsis, a potentially life-threatening condition in which the immune system enters overdrive in response to the disease, causing widespread inflammation and damage to tissues and organs. V. vulnificus had the highest case fatality rate (39%) of all reported foodborne infections in the United States and a high mortality rate in Asia, including Taiwan. Numerous scoring systems have been created to estimate the mortality risk in the emergency department (ED). However, there are no specific scoring systems to predict the mortality risk of Vibrio bacteremia. Therefore, this study modified the existing scoring systems to better predict the mortality risk of Vibrio bacteremia.

METHODS

Cases of Vibrio bacteremia were diagnosed based on the results from at least one blood culture in the ED. Patient data were extracted from the electronic clinical database, covering January 2012 to December 2021. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.This study used univariate and multivariate analyses to evaluate the mortality risk.

RESULTS

This study enrolled 36 patients diagnosed with Vibrio bacteremia, including 23 males (63.9%) and 13 females (36.1%), with a mean age of 65.1 ± 15.7 years. The in-hospital mortality rate amounted to 25% (9/36), with 31.5% in V. vulnificus (6/19) and 17.6% in V. non-vulnificus (3/17). The non-survivors demonstrated higher MEDS (10.3 ± 2.4) than the survivors (6.2 ± 4.1) (p = 0.002). Concerning the qSOFA, the survivors scored 0.3 ± 0.5, and the non-survivors displayed a score of 0.6 ± 0.7 (p = 0.387). The AUC of the ROC for the MEDS and qSOFA was 0.833 and 0.599, respectively. This study modified the scoring systems with other predictive factors, including BUN and pH. The AUC of the ROC for the modified MEDS and qSOFA reached up to 0.852 and 0.802, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The MEDS could serve as reliable indicators for forecasting the mortality rate of patients grappling with Vibrio bacteremia. This study modified the MEDS and qSOFA to strengthen the predictive performance of mortality risk for Vibrio bacteremia. We advocate the prompt initiation of targeted therapeutic interventions and judicious antibiotic treatments to curb fatality rates.

Prognostic accuracy of SOFA, MEWS, and SIRS criteria in predicting the mortality rate of patients with sepsis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In recent years, some studies classified patients with sepsis and predicted their mortality by using some evaluation scales. Several studies reported significant differences in the predictive values of several tools, and the non-uniformity of the cut-off value.

OBJECTIVE

To determine and compare the prognostic accuracy of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria in predicting the mortality of patients with sepsis.

METHODS

This study comprised of systematic literature review and meta-analysis according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library databases from their establishment to July 31, 2022. The research articles published in the index journals provide sufficient data (true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative results) for patients with sepsis. The combined sensitivity and specificity of the 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using the bivariate random effect model (BRM). The hierarchical overall subject working characteristics (HSROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the accuracy of the overall prognosis.

RESULTS

Data of 55 088 patients from 32 studies were included in this meta-analysis. SOFA had an intermediate sensitivity of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78) and a specificity of 0.70 (0.63-0.76). SIRS criteria had the highest sensitivity of 0.75 (0.66-0.82) and the lowest specificity of 0.40 (0.29-0.52). MEWS had the lowest sensitivity of 0.49 (0.40-0.59) and the highest specificity of 0.82 (0.78-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Among SOFA, MEWS, and SIRS criteria, SOFA showed moderate sensitivity and specificity for predicting mortality in patients with sepsis, the highest sensitivity of SIRS and the strongest specificity of MEWS for predicting mortality in patients with sepsis. The future research direction is to combine the relevant indicators of MEWS and SIRS to develop a measurement tool with high reliability and validity.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

The review provides useful insights into the prognostic accuracy of different assessment tools in predicting mortality in sepsis patients, which will help clinicians choose the most appropriate tool for early identification and treatment of sepsis. The findings may also contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable prognostic models for sepsis.

Comparison of different scores as predictors of mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit admission in acute theophylline poisoning

Background

Theophylline is commonly used to control respiratory diseases, especially in developing countries. Theophylline has a narrowed therapeutic index, and its toxicity is associated with morbidity and mortality. Physicians should be aware of the early prediction of the need for intensive care unit admission (ICU) and mechanical ventilation (MV).

Aim

This study aimed to assess the power of the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and Simple Clinical Score (SCS) in predicting the need for ICU admission and/or MV in acute theophylline-poisoned patients.

Patients and methods

This cross-sectional study included 58 patients with acute theophylline poisoning who were admitted to our Poison Control Center from the 1st of July 2022 to the 31st of January 2023. The REMS, MEWS and SCS were calculated for all patients on arrival at the hospital. The area under the curve (AUC) and receiver operating characteristics were tested to compare scores.

Results

The median values of all studied scores were significantly high among patients who needed MV and/or ICU admission. The AUC of SCS was >0.9, with a sensitivity of 92.9% and specificity of 90.9% for the prediction of ICU admission. Meanwhile, MEWS was an excellent predictor of the need for MV (AUC = 0.996, 95% CI = 0.983-1.000).

Conclusions

We recommend using SCS as an early predictor for ICU admission in acute theophylline-poisoned patients. However, MEWS could effectively predict MV requirements in acute theophylline-poisoned patients.

SIRS, SOFA, qSOFA, and NEWS in the diagnosis of sepsis and prediction of adverse outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

We compared Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for sepsis diagnosis and adverse outcomes prediction.

METHODS

Clinical studies that used SIRS, SOFA, qSOFA, and NEWS for sepsis diagnosis and prognosis assessment were included. Data were extracted, and meta-analysis was performed for outcome measures, including sepsis diagnosis, in-hospital mortality, 7/10/14-day mortality, 28/30-day mortality, and ICU admission.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven included studies showed good overall quality. Regarding sepsis prediction, SIRS demonstrated high sensitivity (0.85) but low specificity (0.41), qSOFA showed low sensitivity (0.42) but high specificity (0.98), and NEWS exhibited high sensitivity (0.71) and specificity (0.85). For predicting in-hospital mortality, SOFA demonstrated the highest sensitivity (0.89) and specificity (0.69). In terms of predicting 7/10/14-day mortality, SIRS exhibited high sensitivity (0.87), while qSOFA had high specificity (0.75). For predicting 28/30-day mortality, SOFA showed high sensitivity (0.97) but low specificity (0.14), whereas qSOFA displayed low sensitivity (0.41) but high specificity (0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

NEWS independently demonstrates good diagnostic capability for sepsis, especially in high-income countries. SOFA emerges as the optimal choice for predicting in-hospital mortality and can be employed as a screening tool for 28/30-day mortality in low-income countries.

The utility of the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) compared with three other early warning scores in predicting in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: a multicenter validation study

BACKGROUND

Many early warning scores (EWSs) have been validated to prognosticate adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in the Emergency Department (ED), including the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). However, the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) has not been widely validated for this purpose. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic utility of REMS with that of qSOFA, MEWS, and NEWS for predicting mortality in emergency COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-center retrospective study at five EDs of various levels of care in Thailand. Adult patients visiting the ED who tested positive for COVID-19 prior to ED arrival or within the index hospital visit between January and December 2021 were included. Their EWSs at ED arrival were calculated and analysed. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcome was mechanical ventilation.

RESULTS

A total of 978 patients were included in the study; 254 (26%) died at hospital discharge, and 155 (15.8%) were intubated. REMS yielded the highest discrimination capacity for in-hospital mortality (the area under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUROC) 0.771 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.738, 0.804)), which was significantly higher than qSOFA (AUROC 0.620 (95%CI 0.589, 0.651); p < 0.001), MEWS (AUROC 0.657 (95%CI 0.619, 0.694); p < 0.001), and NEWS (AUROC 0.732 (95%CI 0.697, 0.767); p = 0.037). REMS was also the best EWS in terms of calibration, overall model performance, and balanced diagnostic accuracy indices at its optimal cutoff. REMS also performed better than other EWSs for mechanical ventilation.

CONCLUSION

REMS was the early warning score with the highest prognostic utility as it outperformed qSOFA, MEWS, and NEWS in predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in the ED.

30 Days Mortality Prognostic Value of POCT Bio-Adrenomedullin and Proenkephalin in Patients with Sepsis in the Emergency Department

Background and Objective: Sepsis is a worldwide severe disease with a high incidence and mortality rate. Sepsis is a frequent cause of admission to the emergency department (ED). Although prognostic scores (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, SOFA; New Early Warning Score, NEWS; Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, REMS) are commonly used for risk stratification in septic patients, many of these scores are of poor utility in the ED. In this setting, biomarkers are promising alternatives, easier to perform and potentially more specific. Bio-adrenomedullin (Bio-ADM) and Proenkephalin (PenKid) seem to have a key role in the development of organ dysfunctions induced by sepsis and, therefore, could help in the risk stratification of patients with sepsis at ED admission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of Bio-ADM and PenKid, obtained through a point of care (POCT) device, in predicting 30 days mortality for patients presenting to the ED with sepsis. Methods and Results: In total, 177 consecutive adult patients with a diagnosis of sepsis presenting to the ED of San Giovanni Addolorata Hospital in Rome, Italy, between May 2021 and April 2022 were enrolled in this prospective observational study. For each patient, Bio-ADM and PenKid were obtained at ED admission together with SOFA, NEWS and REMS scores. Next, 30 days follow-up data were collected to evaluate patient mortality. Both biomarkers (Bio-ADM and PenKid) and clinical scores (SOFA, NEWS and REMS) were good predictors of mortality at 30 days, with Bio-ADM and REMS outperforming the others. Moreover, PenKid resulted in being linked with the worsening of kidney function. Conclusions: In patients presenting with sepsis in the ED, Bio-ADM and PenKid, evaluated with a POCT device, predicted 30-day mortality. These two biomarkers seem even more useful when integrated with clinical risk scores at ED admission.

Machine learning models for predicting in-hospital mortality in patient with sepsis: Analysis of vital sign dynamics

Purpose

To build machine learning models for predicting the risk of in-hospital death in patients with sepsis within 48 h, using only dynamic changes in the patient's vital signs.

Methods

This retrospective observational cohort study enrolled septic patients from five emergency departments (ED) in Taiwan. We adopted seven variables, i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, and body temperature.

Results

Among all 353,253 visits, after excluding 159,607 visits (45%), the study group consisted of 193,646 ED visits. With a leading time of 6 h, the convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), and random forest (RF) had accuracy rates of 0.905, 0.817, and 0.835, respectively, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.840, 0.761, and 0.770, respectively. With a leading time of 48 h, the CNN, LSTM, and RF achieved accuracy rates of 0.828, 0759, and 0.805, respectively, and an AUC of 0.811, 0.734, and 0.776, respectively.

Conclusion

By analyzing dynamic vital sign data, machine learning models can predict mortality in septic patients within 6 to 48 h of admission. The performance of the testing models is more accurate if the lead time is closer to the event.

Comparison of national early warning score-2 and qSOFA in predicting the prognosis of older adults with altered mental status

BACKGROUND

Altered mental status occurs in one in four older adults, and the risk increases with age. Numerous scoring systems have been improved to predict mortality, but data are limited for these scoring systems to interpret older adult patients.

AIM

We aimed to compare qSOFA and National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS2) scores in predicting the prognosis of older adults with altered mental status.

METHOD

We included 500 older adults with altered mental status. We noted the qSOFA and NEWS2 scores of the patients. We compared the qSOFA and NEWS2 scores for the prediction of 30-day mortality, 48-h mortality, hospitalization clinic, outcome, and hospitalization length.

RESULTS

The mean NEWS2 score was 6.4, and the mean qSOFA score was 1.3. For 30-day mortality, the sensitivity and specificity of the NEWS2 score ≥ 5 were 68.29% and 69.6%, respectively, and those of qSOFA score > 1 were 47.14% and 78.75%, respectively. AUC values for 30-day mortality prediction were 0,725 (CI: 0.683-0.763) and 0.631 (CI: 0.587-0.673). For intensive care unit hospitalization prediction, the sensitivity and specificity of the NEWS2 score ≥ 5 were 52.73% and 77.67%, respectively, and those of qSOFA score > 1 were 35.32% and 81.55%, respectively. In patients with a NEWS2 score > 10 points, the predicted 48-h mortality had a specificity of 80.6%, which was higher than the qSOFA score.

CONCLUSION

NEWS2 score can be used to predict 48-h mortality, 30-day mortality, and intensive care unit hospitalization compared with qSOFA in older adults with altered mental status.

Investigation of the usability of the REMS, RAPS, and MPM II0 scoring systems in the prediction of short-term and long-term mortality in patients presenting to the emergency department triage

BACKGROUND

Appropriate triage is an important component of patient management in emergency departments. The risk scoring system used for triage purposes in emergency departments should be obtained quickly and based on parameters directly related to prognosis.

AIMS

To investigate the success of the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS) as triage scoring systems and the Mortality Probability Model (MPM II₀) as an intensive care scoring system in identifying critical patients visited to the emergency department (ED) triage and predicting mortality, and to evaluate their superiority over each other, if any.

METHODS

This research was planned as a single-center and prospectively. The data of the study were obtained by screening the medical records of all patients who presented to the ED triage between January 1, 2020 and January 31, 2020. Patients under the age of 18 years, those with missing information in their files and pregnant women were not included in the study. Only the patients for whom the REMS, RAPS, and MPM II₀ scores could be calculated were included in the sample.

RESULTS

After excluding the patients who did not meet the inclusion criteria, the study was completed with 12,210 patients. The mean age of these patients was 44.7 ± 18.7 years, and 47.3% were male. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values for the prediction of 24-h, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality were determined as 0.979, 0.921, 0.904, and 0.897, respectively, for REMS; 0.929, 0.778, 0.75, and 0.725, respectively, for RAPS; and 0.925, 0.888, 0.866, and 0.861, respectively, for MPM II₀.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, it was concluded that the REMS score was superior to the MPM II₀ and RAPS scores in predicting the short-term and long-term mortality status of patients and determining the discharge and hospitalization status of the patients.

Perspectives on the Immune System in Sepsis

Beyond the modifications shown by the biochemistry labs, profound and ample modifications are seen in septic patients at a molecular level stemming from DNA translation and gene expression, manifested as unique profiles of mRNA (messenger), as well as non-coding, functional RNAs: miRNA (micro) and lncRNAs (long non-coding). Counteracting these modifications requires treatment with pleiotropic molecules and/or combination of molecules and opens the possibility of future treatments with arrays of siRNAs and/or specific panels of small molecules tailored for each patient subpopulation.

A comparison of qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS in predicting the accuracy of mortality in patients with suspected sepsis: A meta-analysis

Objective

To identify and compare prognostic accuracy of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria, and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) to predict mortality in patients with suspected sepsis.

Methods

This meta-analysis followed accordance with the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library databases from establishment of the database to November 29, 2021. The pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% CIs were calculated using a bivariate random-effects model (BRM). Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curves were generated to assess the overall prognostic accuracy.

Results

Data of 62338 patients from 26 studies were included in this meta-analysis. qSOFA had the highest specificity and the lowest sensitivity with a specificity of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76–0.86) and a sensitivity of 0.46 (95% CI: 0.39–0.53). SIRS had the highest sensitivity and the lowest specificity with a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78–0.85) and a specificity 0.24 (95% CI: 0.19–0.29). NEWS had both an intermediate sensitivity and specificity with a sensitivity of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.63–0.81) and a specificity 0.52 (95% CI: 0.39–0.65). qSOFA showed higher overall prognostic accuracy than SIRS and NEWS by comparing HSROC curves.

Conclusions

Among qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS, qSOFA showed higher overall prognostic accuracy than SIRS and NEWS. However, no scoring system has both high sensitivity and specificity for predicting the accuracy of mortality in patients with suspected sepsis.

A systematic review of the discrimination and absolute mortality predicted by the National Early Warning Scores according to different cut-off values and prediction windows

BACKGROUND

Although early warning scores were intended to simply identify patients in need of life-saving interventions, prediction has become their commonest metric. This review examined variation in the ability of the National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) in adult patients to predict absolute mortality at different times and cut-offs values.

METHOD

Following PRISMA guidelines, all studies reporting NEWS and NEWS2 providing enough information to fulfil the review's aims were included.

RESULTS

From 121 papers identified, the average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality declined from 0.90 at 24-hours to 0.76 at 30-days. Studies with a low overall mortality had a higher AUC for 24-hour mortality, as did general ward patients compared to patients seen earlier in their treatment. 24-hour mortality increased from 1.8% for a NEWS ≥3 to 7.8% for NEWS ≥7. Although 24-hour mortality for NEWS <3 was only 0.07% these deaths accounted for 9% of all deaths within 24-hours; for NEWS <7 24-hour mortality was 0.23%, which accounted for 44% of all 24-hour deaths. Within 30-days of a NEWS recording 22% of all deaths occurred in patients with a NEWS <3, 52% in patients with a NEWS <5, and 75% in patient with a NEWS <7.

CONCLUSION

NEWS reliably identifies patients most and least likely to die within 24-hours, which is what it was designed to do. However, many patients identified to have a low risk of imminent death die within 30-days. NEWS mortality predictions beyond 24-hours are unreliable.

Comparison of the National Early Warning Scores and Rapid Emergency Medicine Scores with the APACHE II Scores as a Prediction of Mortality in Patients with Medical Emergency Team Activation: a Single-centre Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction

The medical emergency team enables the limitation of patients’ progression to critical illness in the general ward. The early warning scoring system (EWS) is one of the criteria for medical emergency team activation; however, it is not a valid criterion to predict the prognosis of patients with MET activation.

Aim

In this study, the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) was compared with that of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in predicting the prognosis of patients who had been treated a medical emergency team.

Material and Methods

In this single-centre retrospective cohort study, patients treated by a medical emergency team between April 2013 and March 2019 and the 28-day prognosis of MET-activated patients were assessed using APACHE II, NEWS, and REMS.

Results

Of the 196 patients enrolled, 152 (77.5%) were men, and 44 (22.5%) were women. Their median age was 68 years (interquartile range: 57-76 years). The most common cause of medical emergency team activation was respiratory failure (43.4%). Univariate analysis showed that APACHE II score, NEWS, and REMS were associated with 28-day prognostic mortality. There was no significant difference in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of APACHE II (0.76), NEWS (0.67), and REMS (0.70); however, the sensitivity of NEWS (0.70) was superior to that of REMS (0.47).

Conclusion

NEWS is a more sensitive screening tool like APACHE II than REMS for predicting the prognosis of patients with medical emergency team activation. However, because the accuracy of NEWS was not sufficient compared with that of APACHE II score, it is necessary to develop a screening tool with higher sensitivity and accuracy that can be easily calculated at the bedside in the general ward.

A comparison of different scores for diagnosis and mortality prediction of adults with sepsis in Low-and-Middlencome Countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinical scores for sepsis have been primarily developed for, and applied in High-Income Countries. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined the performance of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) scores for diagnosis and prediction of mortality in patients with suspected infection in Low-and-Middle-Income Countries.

METHODS

PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched until May 18, 2021. Studies reporting the performance of at least one of the above-mentioned scores for predicting mortality in patients of 15 years of age and older with suspected infection or sepsis were eligible. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was used for risk-of-bias assessment. PRISMA guidelines were followed (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020153906). The bivariate random-effects regression model was used to pool the individual sensitivities, specificities and areas-under-the-curve (AUC).

FINDINGS

Twenty-four articles (of 5669 identified) with 27,237 patients were eligible for inclusion. qSOFA pooled sensitivity was 0·70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0·60-0·78), specificity 0·73 (95% CI 0·67-0·79), and AUC 0·77 (95% CI 0·72-0·82). SIRS pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 0·88 (95% CI 0·79 -0·93), 0·34 (95% CI 0·25-0·44), and 0·69 (95% CI 0·50-0·83), respectively. MEWS pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 0·70 (95% CI 0·57 -0·81), 0·61 (95% CI 0·42-0·77), and 0·72 (95% CI 0·64-0·77), respectively. UVA pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 0·49 (95% CI 0·33 -0·65), 0·91(95% CI 0·84-0·96), and 0·76 (95% CI 0·44-0·93), respectively. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the pooled analysis.

INTERPRETATION

Individual score performances ranged from poor to acceptable. Future studies should combine selected or modified elements of different scores.

FUNDING

Partially funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (17/63/42).

A Transcriptomic Severity Metric That Predicts Clinical Outcomes in Critically Ill Surgical Sepsis Patients

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Clinically deployable methods for the rapid and accurate prediction of sepsis severity that could elicit a meaningful change in clinical practice are currently lacking. We evaluated a whole-blood, multiplex host-messenger RNA expression metric, Inflammatix-Severity-2, for identifying septic, hospitalized patients’ likelihood of 30-day mortality, development of chronic critical illness, discharge disposition, and/or secondary infections.

Performance of Scoring Systems in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Bacteremia of Listeria monocytogenes: A 9-Year Hospital-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Listeria monocytogenes (LM) is a facultative anaerobe, Gram-positive bacillus which is widely distributed in nature, and can be separated from soil, water, and rotten vegetables. Immunocompetent people are less likely to suffer from LM infection or may only show gastrointestinal symptoms. However, immunocompromised elderly people, pregnant women, and newborns may develop life-threatening invasive infections. The mortality rate of LM infection is as high as 25-30%. The aim of this study is to investigate clinical scores of patients with bacteremia of LM confirmed by one or more blood cultures. We analyzed their demographics and laboratory findings in relation to their clinical outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a hospital-based retrospective study on patients with bacteremia of LM. Data were collected from the electronic clinical database of Taichung Veterans General Hospital between January 2012 and December 2020. Bacteremia of LM was confirmed by at least one blood culture. Demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory data were collected for analysis. A variety of clinical scoring systems were used to predict the clinical outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 39 patients had confirmed bacteremia of LM. Among them, 1 neonatal patient was excluded. The remaining 38 patients were studied. They included 16 males (42.1%) and 22 females (57.9%), with a mean age of 59.9 ± 19.6 years. Their hospital stay averaged 23.3 ± 20.9 days. The in-hospital mortality rate was 36.8%. Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) Score was 6.6 ± 4.0 for survivors and 12.4 ± 4.4 for non-survivors (P < 0.001). The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was 3.9 ± 2.8 for survivors and 7.8 ± 3.1 for non-survivors (P = 0.001). Regarding the prediction of mortality risk, the AUC of ROC was 0.829 for MEDS and 0.815 for NEWS.

CONCLUSIONS

MEDS and NEWS were both good predictors of the clinical outcome in LM bacteremic patients. In those with higher scores of MEDS (≥10) and NEWS (≥8), we recommended an early goal-directed therapy and appropriate antibiotic treatment as early as possible to reduce mortality. Further large-scale studies are required to gain a deeper understanding of this disease and to ensure patient safety.

Assessment of earthquake casualties and comparison of accuracy of five injury triage methods: evidence from a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

The use of an injury triage method among earthquake injury patients can facilitate the reasonable allocation of resources, but the various existing injury triage methods need further confirmation. This study aims to assess the accuracy of several injury triage methods, namely, the Simple Triage and Rapid Treatment (START) technique; CareFlight Injury Triage (CareFlight); Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS); Triage Revised Trauma Score (T-RTS) and Triage Early Warning Score (TEWS), based on their effects on earthquake injury patients.

DESIGN

Data in the Huaxi Earthquake Casualty Database were analysed retrospectively.

SETTING

This study was conducted in China.

PARTICIPANTS

Data on 29 523 earthquake casualties were separately evaluated using the START technique, CareFlight, REMS, T-RTS and TEWS, with these being the five types of injury triage studied.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the five injury triages were calculated based on hospital deaths, injury severity scores greater than 15 points, and whether casualties stayed in the intensive care unit.

RESULTS

The ROC curve areas of the START technique, CareFlight, REMS, T-RTS and TEWS were 0.750, 0.737, 0.835, 0.736 and 0.797, respectively. Among the five injury triages, the most accurate in predicting hospital deaths was REMS, with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.835, with this due to the inclusion of more evaluation indicators.

CONCLUSION

All methods had an effect on the triage of earthquake mass casualties. Among them, the REMS injury triage method had the largest AUC of the five triage methods. Except for REMS, no obvious difference was found in the effect of the other four injury triage methods.

National Early Warning Score Does Not Accurately Predict Mortality for Patients With Infection Outside the Intensive Care Unit: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: The prognostic value of the national early warning score (NEWS) in patients with infections remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of NEWS for prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with infections outside the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for related articles from January 2012 to April 2021. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS in selected populations. Results: A total of 21 studies with 107,008 participants were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS were 0.71 and 0.60. The pooled AUC of NEWS was 0.70, which was similar to quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA, AUC: 0.70) and better than systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, AUC: 0.60). However, the sensitivity (0.55) and AUC (0.63) of NEWS were poor in elder patients. The NEWS of 5 was more sensitive, which was a better threshold for activating urgent assessment and treatment. Conclusions: The NEWS had good diagnostic accuracy for early prediction of mortality in patients with infections outside the ICU, and the sensitivity and specificity were more moderate when compared with qSOFA and SIRS. Insufficient sensitivity and poor performance in the elder population may have limitations as an early warning score for adverse outcomes. NEWS should be used for continuous monitoring rather than a single time point predictive tool.