Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care--a scoping review

Impact of health conditions on daily functioning in Kenyan populations: A scoping review

Background

Kenya faces significant challenges in addressing the impact of various health conditions. Understanding the functioning problems associated with these conditions is crucial for informing targeted interventions and improving overall healthcare outcomes.

Objectives

This study aimed to determine the prevalence and types of functioning problems associated with health conditions contributing most to Years Lived with Disability in the adult Kenyan population and to identify the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) domains and categories most affected.

Method

A scoping review was conducted. Searches were performed across multiple databases using relevant keywords and inclusion criteria. Studies published between January 2006 and December 2023 were eligible. Data were extracted from 39 eligible studies using a web-based software application (Rehab4all).

Results

Major depressive disorder, human immunodeficiency virus, low back pain and fractures were identified as the leading conditions contributing to functioning problems in Kenya. The most prevalent problems included walking difficulties, paraesthesia, various forms of pain and depression. The most affected ICF domains were mobility (d4), sensory function and pain (b2) and mental (b1).

Conclusion

The comprehensive description of functioning problems associated with priority health conditions in Kenya can be used to develop targeted interventions to improve health outcomes across affected domains.

Contribution

This research enhances comprehension of disability burden guiding intervention development and policy formulation for improved rehabilitation and offers a platform for further evidence-based strategies to tackle the country's complex health challenges.

Study Protocol for Applying Trend Impact Analysis in Health Futures Studies: A Methodological Approach Illustrated by HIV/AIDS Forecasting in Iran

Background

Future planning is critical in the health sector. Data-driven strategies, such as forecasting, assume that past influential forces will persist under similar conditions. Acknowledging significant events and examining their effects can enhance understanding of potential consequences, improving health system planning. This study elucidates the trend impact analysis (TIA) protocol for forecasting and scenario planning in health systems, focusing on the future of HIV/AIDS in Iran.

Methods

We utilized the TIA approach, which effectively combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies to enhance the precision of forecasting. TIA is specifically designed to account for the influence of unforeseen events and their potential future occurrences on existing trends, thereby facilitating more reliable and comprehensive projections. The methodology uses historical data to extrapolate and forecast future trends quantitatively. Concurrently, qualitative tools identify potential disruptive or influential events that may impact these trends. The approach generates two principal indices: the Impact Rate, which evaluates both the probability of an event's occurrence and the intensity of its effects on existing trends, and the Corrected Estimate Value, which integrates the Impact Rate with the baseline values based on quantitative forecasting. Researchers incorporate events' impacts into the trend projections by systematically analyzing their nature and magnitude. These methodological steps collectively contribute to formulating well-informed and plausible future scenarios.

Conclusions

The limitations in forecasting the future using quantitative methods and ignoring the effects of unexpected events can lead to "surprises-free" predictions and cause deviations from estimates and plans. To address this, using innovative approaches in the methodology of studies is crucial. It provides the groundwork for intelligent planning to face the future, ensuring the health field remains dynamic and responsive to change and fostering an optimistic outlook.

Practical insights for enhancing primary care rehabilitation services in low-resource contexts

BACKGROUND

 Rehabilitation services are crucial for addressing the growing burden of functioning problems related to chronic conditions in low and middle-income countries. These services, however, remain limited in South Africa and Zimbabwe's primary health care (PHC) settings.

AIM

 To identify recommendations for enhancing the accessibility and quality of rehabilitation services in PHC in South Africa and Zimbabwe from the perspectives of primary care providers (PCPs) and patients.

SETTING

 Ten PHC facilities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa and in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

METHODS

 A qualitative descriptive study was conducted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 37 PCPs and 40 patients. Thematic analysis of transcribed and translated data was done in ATLAS.ti version 22.2.4.

RESULTS

 Five key recommendations emerged: (1) provide rehabilitation services closer to home through facility-based services, outreach, home visits and telerehabilitation; (2) improve patient awareness of rehabilitation through patient education, community engagement and patients actively seeking information; (3) enhance PCPs' knowledge and basic skills in rehabilitation through training and guideline development; (4) improve communication among PHC stakeholders; and (5) advocate for rehabilitation inclusion in leadership, resource allocation and multi-disciplinary teams.

CONCLUSION

 Implementing the identified recommendations could significantly improve the accessibility and quality of rehabilitation services in PHC, aligning with global initiatives to scale up rehabilitation in health systems. Future research should focus on evaluating the implementation and impact of these recommendations.Contribution: The study emphasises the inclusion of PCPs' and end-users' voices in providing practical, context-specific strategies for establishing or strengthening rehabilitation services in low-resource PHC settings.

Future scenarios of palliative care in health system of Iran: a multi-method study

Background

Paying attention to palliative care has accelerated in Iran in the last 10 years. Considering the trend of aging, increasing burden of chronic diseases and increasing health costs, planning and development of palliative care is necessary in the future. This study was conducted with the aim of explaining the alternative scenarios of palliative care in the health system of Iran until the horizon of 2030.

Methods

This study was a multi-method scenario planning with a qualitative using multiple methods design, which was conducted in 3 phases in 2018-2020. In the first phase, a list of driving forces was extracted using qualitative interviews and literature review. In the second phase, all factors identified in the previous phase were examined in terms of degree of uncertainty and cross-impact analysis, and two key uncertainties were extracted. In the third phase, based on two key uncertainties, four future scenarios of palliative care were formulated, validated and scenario strategies were presented.

Results

The results indicate two uncertainties, including "governance of palliative care in the health system" and "acceptance of palliative care by society," based on which, four scenarios with the names "climbing to the top," "excruciating climb," "edge of the abyss" and "The bottom of the valley" were compiled.

Conclusion

The development of palliative care in health system of Iran is faced with serious uncertainties that it is necessary to focus the developmental activities of palliative care on the two axes of acceptance by society and need for coherent governance by considering all the dimensions and influential components by ministry of health. The application of the results of this research can provide reasonable options for effective interventions and implementation of this category of services to the beneficiaries of palliative care.

Impact on Hospital Resource Utilization of Endoluminal Bypass Using the Viabahn Endoprosthesis with Heparin Bioactive Surface Compared With Surgical Femoropopliteal Bypass

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of heparin-bonded endoprosthesis compared with femoropopliteal bypass on key hospital resources and revenues up to 1-year follow-up.

DESIGN

A 2-arm scenario resource consumption data analysis was modeled based on a multicentre prospective randomized controlled trial.

SETTING

Six centers in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 100 patients were assigned to 2 arms (50 each arm). The first arm evaluated endovascular treatment using the heparin-bonded Viabahn endoprosthesis and the second the femoropopliteal bypass. Resource consumption rates were compared between arms.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES

Resource consumption rates, including hospital stay for bypass procedure, operating room time, type of anesthesia, number of used (endo)grafts, use of different types of bed locations (vascular ward, medium or intensive care), readmission for wound infections, and reinterventions over a period of 12 months.

RESULTS

Endovascular repair used fewer hospital resources, with an overall difference of €149.983. Hospital stay was 118 days less (261 vs 379), including 21 fewer days in medium/intensive care (5 vs 26) and 50 fewer operating room hours (100 vs 150). Fewer patients required general anesthesia (31 vs 39), and there were less surgical site infections (3 vs 12). In the surgical bypass group, there were 18 fewer days of hospital stay related to reinterventions (80 vs 62), and the cost of the devices was €309.996, cheaper. The total monetary difference was € 160.013, in favor of the femoropopliteal bypass (€3.200, per patient).

CONCLUSIONS

Endovascular repair of the superficial femoral artery reduces the use of valuable hospital resources. Its major limitation is the cost of the devices, which should be balanced against the reduction in peri-procedural morbidity and faster recovery. In the context of shortage of hospital beds, it offers capacity benefits, allowing for the treatment of more patients overall. These benefits may outweigh the fewer reinterventions in the surgical bypass group.

REGISTRATION

The SuperB Trial was registered in clinicaltrials.gov; NCT-ID: NCT01220245.

CLINICAL IMPACT

Modeling is a useful technique to predict the impact of treatment modalities on hospital resources and revenue. This study uses real-world data from the SuperB Trial to compare two treatment strategies of superficial femoral artery disease, reflecting actual clinical practice and patient outcomes. The analysis focused on direct costs associated with hospital resources and device usage without considering indirect costs or long-term cost-effectiveness. The analysis showed that endovascular repair reduces the use of valuable hospital resources. Its major limitation is device costs, which should be balanced against the reduction in peri-procedural morbidity and faster recovery. In the context of shortage of hospital beds, it offers capacity benefits, allowing for the treatment of more patients overall.

Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, scenario modeling played a crucial role in shaping the decision-making process of public health policies. Unlike forecasts, scenario projections rely on specific assumptions about the future that consider different plausible states-of-the-world that may or may not be realized and that depend on policy interventions, unpredictable changes in the epidemic outlook, etc. As a consequence, long-term scenario projections require different evaluation criteria than the ones used for traditional short-term epidemic forecasts. Here, we propose a novel ensemble procedure for assessing pandemic scenario projections using the results of the Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) for COVID-19 in the United States (US). By defining a "scenario ensemble" for each model and the ensemble of models, termed "Ensemble2", we provide a synthesis of potential epidemic outcomes, which we use to assess projections' performance, bypassing the identification of the most plausible scenario. We find that overall the Ensemble2 models are well-calibrated and provide better performance than the scenario ensemble of individual models. The ensemble procedure accounts for the full range of plausible outcomes and highlights the importance of scenario design and effective communication. The scenario ensembling approach can be extended to any scenario design strategy, with potential refinements including weighting scenarios and allowing the ensembling process to evolve over time.

The Importance of Uncertainty in Health Scenarios: A Scoping Review on COVID-19 Scenarios

Background

Scenarios are the most efficient methods to explore our uncertainty about the future. Even with increasing utilization, the majority of scenarios still fall short of meeting the future "uncertainties" in health. This article examines one of the most sensitive encounters of the health system with uncertainties-COVID-19 pandemic-and the type of uncertainty analysis in health scenarios to discuss the importance and determine the existing gaps while providing a better mechanism for scenario planning in the health system.

Methods

To examine the extent, range, and nature of scenario research, a preliminary mapping of the existing literature, summarizing research findings, and identifying research gaps, we have taken help from the Arksey and O'Malley (2005) model and to improve the quality of the results, we have also used the PRISMA framework. To identify the studies relevant to the issue, the PubMed and Embase databases were searched for peer-reviewed published articles. All peer reviewed articles from January 01, 2020, to December 31, 2020, were included in this review. The search strategy was mainly the systematic use of English keywords such as "coronavirus," "covid-19," "SARS-CoV-2," "2019-ncov," and scenario. To improve the search sensitivity, subject searching based on MeSh and Emtree keywords was used.

Results

It is crucial to identify the health domains where the scenarios can be used. The major ideas that were covered and their variations would also be identified using these different scenarios. Based on the selected articles, we can answer some critical questions. First, in which health fields is the scenario method used? Second, what are the key concepts in these studies, and third, what is the difference between them? Policy, epidemiology, and economics use futures studies scenarios more than other social science disciplines in health. Furthermore, we have looked at the fact that selecting the appropriate kind, utilizing new methodologies, and emphasizing uncertainty analysis are the core difficulties associated with health case scenarios.

Conclusion

Based on examining the existing indicators in the health scenarios, establishing the "uncertainty analysis" as the basis can improve scenario planning in this field. Also, if scenario planning is done as a process based on uncertainty analysis, it is more accurate and helps make better decisions in the field of health.

Future of myocardial infarction mortality in Iran: a scenario-based study

This study defines futures myocardial infarction landscapes and proposes a few policy options to reduce the burden of cardiovascular diseases using the scenario development method. We identified the effective drivers of myocardial infarction by reviewing the literature and completed the returned list with "experts" opinions. The results were classified using the STEEP (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political) framework. We plotted the critical uncertainties in a two-dimensional ranking of "effect" and "uncertainty" levels. Eleven drivers with uncertainty and high potential impact were selected and categorized into three groups: Political Development, Access to health services, and Self-Care. Scenarios were developed, and 3 scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and possible) were selected based on scoring. For each scenario, policy options were formulated. Utilizing the capacity of Non-Governmental Organizations and charities and strengthening restrictive and punitive legislation was chosen as policy options for addressing possible scenarios. Building infrastructure and improving prevention services, designing and regenerating curative infrastructure were selected as optimal strategies for addressing issues related to the optimistic scenario. Strengthening restrictive and punitive legislation related to community health and population empowerment were proposed as critical policy options for health improvement regarding the pessimistic scenario. Increasing people's participation, strengthening infrastructure and punitive policies can be effective in Myocardial infarction mortality prevention policies in Iran.

Perspective: Coping with Covid-19: An isolation risk assessment and management guideline for healthcare staff

The mental health consequences of pandemic isolation have been well documented extending from psychological conditions such as anxiety and depression to increased falls risk, medication errors and delirium. Whilst risk factors associated with isolation are known, there remains a gap in the guidance for healthcare staff on how to assess for these risks and develop effective management plans. Using a structured professional judgement (SPJ) approach and the author's recent experience providing consultation and leadership to clinical staff working with at-risk patients during the pandemic, an isolation risk assessment and management guideline was developed. SPJ is an evidenced-based analytical method used to understand and mitigate risk that was primarily developed for the assessment and management of aggression and violence. This paper discusses an evidenced-based process used to develop the guideline and the application of its use from the author's clinical experience.

Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology

Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust predictions of outcomes and associated uncertainty. While the selection of an aggregation method can be guided by retrospective performance evaluations, this is not always possible. For example, if predictions are conditional on assumptions about how the future will unfold (e.g. possible interventions), these assumptions may never materialize, precluding any direct comparison between predictions and observations. Here, we summarize literature on aggregating probabilistic predictions, illustrate various methods for infectious disease predictions via simulation, and present a strategy for choosing an aggregation method when empirical validation cannot be used. We focus on the linear opinion pool (LOP) and Vincent average, common methods that make different assumptions about between-prediction uncertainty. We contend that assumptions of the aggregation method should align with a hypothesis about how uncertainty is expressed within and between predictions from different sources. The LOP assumes that between-prediction uncertainty is meaningful and should be retained, while the Vincent average assumes that between-prediction uncertainty is akin to sampling error and should not be preserved. We provide an R package for implementation. Given the rising importance of multi-model infectious disease hubs, our work provides useful guidance on aggregation and a deeper understanding of the benefits and risks of different approaches.

Functioning Problems Associated with Health Conditions with Greatest Disease Burden in South Africa: A Scoping Review

A notable rise in health-related disability for which evidence-based rehabilitation is beneficial is evident in low-to-middle income countries. This scoping review aimed to systematically identify and map the most common functioning problems associated with health conditions that contribute most to disability in South Africa using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) framework. Peer-reviewed evidence published from January 2006 to December 2021 was systematically searched from five databases. Some 268 studies reporting on functioning problems (impairments, activity limitations, and participation restrictions) in South African adults (>18 years) related to 10 health conditions were included. A total of 130 different functioning problems were mapped to the ICF. The most prevalent problems (top 20) were related to mobility, pain, and mental health but spanned across several ICF domains and were mostly in patients at primary care. The high prevalence and wide range of functioning problems may be particularly burdensome on an already strained primary health care (PHC) system. This points towards targeted planning of innovative strategies towards strengthening rehabilitation service delivery at primary care to address these complexities where there is an inadequate rehabilitation workforce.

Drivers, uncertainties, and future scenarios of the Iranian health system

BACKGROUND

Health promotion is an essential dimension of sustainable development in any country. It has a high degree of complexity, with numerous components interacting both inside and outside of the system, so having a systemic and forward-looking approach is essential to planning for the future.

METHODS

The research has been designed based on scenario-based planning in three main stages. The data gathering was qualitative by working group meetings and compiling an importance-uncertainty questionnaire to complete the cross-impact analysis matrix. The MicMac and scenario Wizard has been used for data analysis.

RESULTS

The scoping review and upstream document evaluation lead to 54 key variables for analyzing the Iranian health system (HS). The MicMac analysis ends by determining seven key variables: power, politics, and communication network; lifestyle and behavioral factors; quality of human resources training and education; environmental and occupational risk factors, payment and tariff system, and allocation pattern; support society / individuals health; and services effectiveness, especially para-clinical and outpatient ones. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. collective equity was the priority of the HS vision in the desirable scenario, consisting of the most favorable state of the uncertainties. The second, third, and fourth scenarios are also considered desirable. In the disaster scenario, which is the most pessimistic type of consistent scenario in this study, health and equity are not significant either in the social or individual dimensions. In the sixth scenario, the individual dimension of health and equity is the most critical perspective of the HS.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the unsustainability and high complexity of the Iran's HS, the development and excellence of the HS governance based on the Iran context and health advocacy improvement (applying good governance); creating sustainable financial resources and rational consumption; and human resources training and education are three main principles leading the HS to the images of the desired scenarios.

Progress towards achieving child survival goals in Kenya after devolution: Geospatial analysis with scenario-based projections, 2015-2025

Subnational projections of under-5 mortality (U5M) have increasingly become an essential planning tool to support Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda and strategies for improving child survival. To support child health policy, planning, and tracking child development goals in Kenya, we projected U5M at units of health decision making. County-specific annual U5M were estimated using a multivariable Bayesian space-time hierarchical model based on intervention coverage from four alternate intervention scale-up scenarios assuming 1) the highest subnational intervention coverage in 2014, 2) projected coverage based on the fastest county-specific rate of change observed in the period between 2003-2014 for each intervention, 3) the projected national coverage based on 2003-2014 trends and 4) the country-specific targets of intervention coverage relative to business as usual (BAU) scenario. We compared the percentage change in U5M based on the four scale-up scenarios relative to BAU and examined the likelihood of reaching SDG 3.2 target of at least 25 deaths/1,000 livebirths by 2022 and 2025. Projections based on 10 factors assuming BAU, showed marginal reductions in U5M across counties with all the counties except Mandera county not achieving the SDG 3.2 target by 2025. Further, substantial reductions in U5M would be achieved based on the various intervention scale-up scenarios, with 63.8% (30), 74.5% (35), 46.8% (22) and 61.7% (29) counties achieving SDG target for scenarios 1,2,3 and 4 respectively by 2025. Scenario 2 yielded the highest reductions of U5M with individual scale-up of access to improved water, recommended treatment of fever and accelerated HIV prevalence reduction showing considerable impact on U5M reduction (≥ 20%) relative to BAU. Our results indicate that sustaining an ambitious intervention scale-up strategy matching the fastest rate observed between 2003-2014 would substantially reduce U5M in Kenya. However, despite this ambitious scale-up scenario, 25% (12 of 47) of the Kenya's counties would still not achieve SDG 3.2 target by 2025.

Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.

Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.

Participation in Low Back Pain Management: It Is Time for the To-Be Scenarios in Digital Public Health

Low back pain (LBP) carries a high risk of chronicization and disability, greatly impacting the overall demand for care and costs, and its treatment is at risk of scarce adherence. This work introduces a new scenario based on the use of a mobile health tool, the Dress-KINESIS, to support the traditional rehabilitation approach. The tool proposes targeted self-manageable exercise plans for improving pain and disability, but it also monitors their efficacy. Since LBP prevention is the key strategy, the tool also collects real-patient syndromic information, shares valid educational messages and fosters self-determined motivation to exercise. Our analysis is based on a comparison of the performance of the traditional rehabilitation process for non-specific LBP patients and some different scenarios, designed by including the Dress-KINESIS’s support in the original process. The results of the simulations show that the integrated approach leads to a better capacity for taking on patients while maintaining the same physiotherapists’ effort and costs, and it decreases healthcare costs during the two years following LBP onset. These findings suggest that the healthcare system should shift the paradigm towards citizens’ participation and the digital support, with the aim of improving its efficiency and citizens’ quality of life.

Facing the National Recovery and Resilience Plan: Sources of Data, Indicators, and Participatory Strategies in Healthcare and Social Fields

Innovation in governance and services should be the target of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Monitoring processes, impacts, and outcomes requires a system of new indicators that are practical to collect. Secondary data sources, their availability, and their information potential should be evaluated, and primary sources should be implemented to supplement traditional disease surveillance. This work highlights the most relevant aspects for bridging the mismatching between complex community needs and current health/social supply and how those aspects could be faced. As a result, we propose a structured multi-phases process for setting the design and functionalities of a cooperative information system, built on the integration between secondary and primary data for informing policies about chronic low back pain (CLBP), a widely recognized determinant of disability and significant economic burden. In particular, we propose the Dress-KINESIS, a tool for improving community capacity development and participation that allows one to freely collect big health and social data and link it to existing secondary data. The system also may be able to monitor how the resources are distributed across different care sectors and suggest how to improve efficiency based on the patient’s CLBP risk stratification. Moreover, it is potentially customizable in other fields of health.

Public and patient involvement in health data governance (DATAGov): protocol of a people-centred, mixed-methods study on data use and sharing for rare diseases care and research

INTRODUCTION

International policy imperatives for the public and patient involvement in the governance of health data coexist with conflicting cross-border policies on data sharing. This can challenge the planning and implementation of participatory data governance in healthcare services locally. Engaging with local stakeholders and understanding how their needs, values and preferences for governing health data can be articulated with policies made at the supranational level is crucial. This paper describes a protocol for a project that aims to coproduce a people-centred model for involving patients and the public in decision-making processes about the use and sharing of health data for rare diseases care and research.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multidisciplinary project draws on an explanatory sequential mixed-methods study. A hospital-based survey with patients, informal carers, health professionals and technical staff recruited at two reference centres for rare diseases in Portugal will be conducted first. The qualitative study will follow consisting of semi-structured interviews and scenario-based workshops with a subsample of the participant groups recruited at baseline. Quantitative data will be analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Inductive and deductive approaches will be combined to analyse the qualitative interviews. Data from scenario-based workshops will be iteratively compared using the constant comparison method to identify cross-cutting themes and categories.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Ethics Committee for Health from the University Hospital Centre São João/Faculty of Medicine of University of Porto approved the study protocol (Ref. 99/19). Research findings will be disseminated at academic conferences and science promotion events, and through public meetings involving patient representatives, practitioners, policy-makers and students, a project website and peer-reviewed journal publications.

Using a scenario-based hybrid approach to understand participant health behavior

BACKGROUND

Qualitative and mixed methods approaches are commonly used to understand participants' interactions with real-world settings and can help health services researchers to obtain realistic details about patients' health behaviors. However, interviews do not easily capture data about how patients perform health-related behaviors that are not part of their daily routine. A scenario-based approach is one method that can be used prospectively to explore how patients make decisions about their health-related behaviors. This approach is comprised of a set of small tailored probable circumstances with equally plausible situations, and are presented as narrative descriptions. To understand how older adults, a group at high-risk for OTC misuse, select over-the-counter (OTC) medication qualitative methods can be used.

OBJECTIVES

This study describes a scenario-based hybrid approach that included a simulation exercise and a situational interview to understand how older adults first select and then take OTC medication.

METHODS

The scenario-based hybrid approach consisted of 1) a simulation exercise to emulate participants' real-world experiences as they selected a medication in a store, followed by 2) a situational interview to capture how participants intended to take the medication they selected. Video recordings captured interview data as well as participants' body language, navigation patterns, and other nuanced data that would not have been captured in audio recordings.

RESULTS/CONCLUSION

The scenario-based hybrid approach not only yielded detailed information about behavior, but also allowed investigators to discern participants' decision-making, influences, and the rationales they use when selecting and taking OTC medications. Studies aiming to capture participants' behavior in naturalistic situations can use these techniques to draw inferences from direct and indirect visual references that may not be captured otherwise. In this study, the goal was to understand how older adult participants select and take OTC medications. This approach allowed the research team to expediently recreate situations in which participants would purchase an OTC medication, a task that may not occur frequently and thus may not be amenable to participant observation or accurately recalled using retrospective interviewing.

'Strategy-as-practice' by hospital personnel in hospitals: a scoping review protocol

Background: Strategy in hospitals is based on distinct principles and rules which lead organisations to act on chosen priorities. Hospitals are struggling to cope with increasing service demands and activity and need to become more responsive to changing environments while demonstrating effective use of resources. Strategizing involves the active process of sensing, planning, implementing and evaluating strategy. Strategy-as-practice is concerned with what people do about strategy in an organisation, as opposed to the traditional focus on what the organisation has as a strategy. It is recognised that there is a disconnection between strategic planning and implementation, however little is known about how organisational context influences the strategic process or how hospital personnel engage in strategic activities. The aim of this scoping review is to explore the literature on strategizing by hospital personnel in hospitals, and will include literature for hospital both professional and managerial backgrounds, to establish the extent and breadth of strategizing or as it is often termed ‘strategy-as-practice’ in hospitals. Methods: The systematic scoping review will search the literature within the databases of PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, ABI/INFORM (Proquest) and OpenGrey.net to explore the scientific evidence on strategizing in hospitals. The review will be based on the Arksey & O’Malley (2005) framework of five mandatory steps which was updated (Levac et al 2010, Colquhoun et al 2014 & Peters 2015) and is published online by the Joanna Briggs Institute. It will follow the PRISMA-ScP reporting guidelines. Conclusion: A scoping review methodology will provide a framework to explore strategizing in hospitals comprehensively and map the body of literature for this subject, which has not been conducted previously. This review will summarise the evidence on the use of strategy as practice in hospitals.  Based on the findings we will identify knowledge gaps and areas for future research.

Foresight in the time of COVID-19

Foresight methodologies enable individuals and organizations to envision different future scenarios and plan for greater future resilience. However, foresight is an underused methodology in the Western Pacific region for health policy development that could be extremely beneficial, among other areas, in the context of public health emergency response. We present lessons learned from the application of foresight methodologies through remote, agile think tank sprints to inform the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Regional Office's (WPRO) response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four think tanks were set up in topic areas of interest. The think tanks used a six-step foresight methodology to develop scenarios for the pandemic in an 18-month horizon. Backcasting was used to generate recommendations for WHO response and support for countries. This case study demonstrates the value of using foresight methodologies in public health, and specifically in the context of a public health emergency, and its ability to inform more context-appropriate and future-proof responses.

FUNDING

Japan.

Health workforce planning under conditions of uncertainty: identifying supportive integrated care policies using scenario analysis

Purpose

Integrated care presents health workforce planners with significant uncertainty. This results from: (1) these workforces are likely in the future to be different from the present, (2) integrated care's variable definitions and (3) workforce policy and planning is not familiar with addressing such challenges. One means to deal with uncertainty is scenario analysis. In this study we reveal some integration-supportive workforce governance and planning policies that were derived from the application of scenario analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

Through a mixed methods design that applies content analysis, scenario construction and the policy Delphi method, we analysed a set of New Zealand's older persons health sector workforce scenarios. Developed from data gathered from workforce documents and studies, the scenarios were evaluated by a suitably qualified panel, and derived policy statements were assessed for desirability and feasibility.

Findings

One scenario was found to be most favourable, based on its broad focus, inclusion of prevention and references to patient dignity, although funding changes were indicated as necessary for its realisation. The integration-supportive policies are based on promoting network-based care models, patient-centric funding that promotes collaboration and the enhancement of interprofessional education and educator involvement.

Originality/value

Scenario analysis for policy production is rare in health workforce planning. We show how it is possible to identify policies to address an integrated care workforce's development using this method. The article provides value for planners and decision-makers by identifying the pros and cons of future situations and offers guidance on how to reduce uncertainty through policy rehearsal and reflection.

The use of future scenario thinking for child public health in a local authority

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic, cultural, technological, environment and ecological changes are rapidly transforming how children and young people (CYP) grow up, yet their impacts on CYP are difficult to predict. The traditional ways that Public Health practitioners work may not capture such complex and dynamic change. To address this, Lambeth Council used future scenario thinking.

METHODS

A literature review looked at political, socioeconomic and other 'transitions' in the borough. Interviews, focus groups and workshops were held with CYP, parents, carers, local statutory and non-statutory stakeholders about the future for Lambeth CYP in the decade ahead. Themes were analysed to identify which had the potential for the biggest impact or the most uncertainty.

RESULTS

The main transitions were described, 100 stakeholders interviewed, and five 'drivers' of the future were identified: protracted austerity, technological explosion, demographic shift, 'democratic shake-up' and planetary health. From all these data, four future scenarios were developed: 'communities care for themselves', 'collaborating to care for all', 'nobody cares' and 'who cares?'

CONCLUSIONS

New insights were gained about promoting more responsibility for, and active participation of CYP. This led to Lambeth's CYP Plan and the 'Made in Lambeth' campaign aiming to enlist the community and business in creating a child-friendly borough.

Possibilities for the future of global mental health: a scenario planning approach

BACKGROUND

Global mental health is a widely used term describing initiatives in policies, research and practice to improve the mental health of people worldwide. It has been gaining momentum over the last 10 years, reflected in increasing funding opportunities, training programmes, and publications. In light of the rising importance of global mental health and the various uncertainties about its future directions, this paper explores what the future may hold for global mental health in 30 years' time.

METHOD

A scenario planning method was used, involving a workshop with experts from four continents and a range of backgrounds, including clinical and academic psychiatry, psychology, art and music therapy, service user advisory role, funder of global health research and post-graduate students.

RESULTS

Six distinct scenarios that describe potential future situations were developed: universal standards for care; worldwide coordination of research; making use of diversity; focus on social factors; globalised care through technology; mental health as a currency in global politics.

CONCLUSIONS

These scenarios consider different social, economic, scientific and technological drivers and focus on distinct aspects. Some reflect a global application of possible trends in mental health, whilst others apply general global developments to mental health care. They are not fixed forecasts, but instead may help to promote discussion and debate about further developments and decisions.

Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

Background

Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges.

Objective

This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.

Methods

A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain.

Results

Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worst-case but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities.

Conclusions

The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.

Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025

INTRODUCTION

Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025.

METHOD

The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method.

RESULTS

Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled "Access to career advancement" and "A sufficient number of radiographers", were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line.

CONCLUSION

It is suggested that "The dying profession" scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of "happy radiographers" who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by "the assembly line".