Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland under mitigation

Temporal trends of ambulance time intervals for suspected stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland: a quasi-experimental study

OBJECTIVES

Time is a fundamental component of acute stroke and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) care, thus minimising prehospital delays is a crucial part of the stroke chain of survival. COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in Ireland in response to the pandemic, which resulted in major societal changes. However, current research on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on prehospital care for stroke/TIA is limited to early COVID-19 waves. Thus, we aimed to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on ambulance time intervals and suspected stroke/TIA call volume for adults with suspected stroke and TIA in Ireland, from 2018 to 2021.

DESIGN

We conducted a secondary data analysis with a quasi-experimental design.

SETTING

We used data from the National Ambulance Service in Ireland. We defined the COVID-19 period as '1 March 2020-31 December 2021' and the pre-COVID-19 period '1 January 2018-29 February 2020'.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We compared five ambulance time intervals: 'allocation performance', 'mobilisation performance', 'response time', 'on scene time' and 'conveyance time' between the two periods using descriptive and regression analyses. We also compared call volume for suspected stroke/TIA between the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods using interrupted time series analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

We included all suspected stroke/TIA cases ≥18 years who called the National Ambulance Service from 2018 to 2021.

RESULTS

40 004 cases were included: 19 826 in the pre-COVID-19 period and 19 731 in the COVID-19 period. All ambulance time intervals increased during the pandemic period compared with pre-COVID-19 (p<0.001). Call volume increased during the COVID-19-period compared with the pre-COVID-19 period (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A 'shock' like a pandemic has a negative impact on the prehospital phase of care for time-sensitive conditions like stroke/TIA. System evaluation and public awareness campaigns are required to ensure maintenance of prehospital stroke pathways amidst future healthcare crises. Thus, this research is relevant to routine and extraordinary prehospital service planning.

Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The interaction between modelers and policymakers is becoming more common due to the increase in computing speed seen in recent decades. The recent pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was no exception. Thus, this study aims to identify and assess epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data, including immunization for coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODOLOGY

PubMed, JSTOR, medRxiv, LILACS, EconLit, and other databases were searched for studies employing epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data. We summarized the information qualitatively, and each article included was assessed for bias risk using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) and PROBAST checklist tool. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42022344542.

FINDINGS

In total, 5646 articles were retrieved, of which 411 were included. Most of the information was published in 2021. The countries with the highest number of studies were the United States, Canada, China, and the United Kingdom; no studies were found in low-income countries. The SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) was the most frequently used approach, followed by agent-based modeling. Moreover, the most commonly used software were R, Matlab, and Python, with the most recurring health outcomes being death and recovery. According to the JBI assessment, 61.4% of articles were considered to have a low risk of bias.

INTERPRETATION

The utilization of mathematical models increased following the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Stakeholders have begun to incorporate these analytical tools more extensively into public policy, enabling the construction of various scenarios for public health. This contribution adds value to informed decision-making. Therefore, understanding their advancements, strengths, and limitations is essential.

Estimating time-dependent contact: a multi-strain epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 on the island of Ireland

Mathematical modelling plays a key role in understanding and predicting the epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases. We construct a flexible discrete-time model that incorporates multiple viral strains with different transmissibilities to estimate the changing patterns of human contact that generates new infections. Using a Bayesian approach, we fit the model to longitudinal data on hospitalisation with COVID-19 from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland during the first year of the pandemic. We describe the estimated change in human contact in the context of government-mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions in the two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland. We take advantage of the fitted model to conduct counterfactual analyses exploring the impact of lockdown timing and introducing a novel, more transmissible variant. We found substantial differences in human contact between the two jurisdictions during periods of varied restriction easing and December holidays. Our counterfactual analyses reveal that implementing lockdowns earlier would have decreased subsequent hospitalisation substantially in most, but not all cases, and that an introduction of a more transmissible variant - without necessarily being more severe - can cause a large impact on the health care burden.

Healthcare Worker Characteristics Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Uptake in Ireland; a Multicentre Cross-Sectional Study

The prevention of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and transmission among healthcare workers is an ongoing challenge. Vaccination has been introduced to mitigate these risks. Vaccine uptake varies among healthcare workers in the absence of vaccine mandates. We investigated engagement with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among healthcare workers and identified characteristics associated with lower vaccine uptake. This multi-site cross-sectional study recruited n = 1260 healthcare workers in both clinical and non-clinical roles over a three-month period from November 2022. Participants reported their engagement with the primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination programme and subsequent booster programmes, as well as providing demographic, occupational and personal medical history information. Multivariable linear regression identified characteristics associated with vaccine uptake. Engagement with vaccination programmes was high, with 88% of participants receiving at least one booster dose after primary vaccination course. Younger age and female sex were associated with reduced vaccine uptake. Healthcare workers in non-clinical roles also had reduced vaccine uptake. These findings should inform vaccination strategies across healthcare settings and target populations with reduced vaccine uptake directly, in particular young, female, and non-clinical healthcare workers, both for SARS-CoV-2 and other healthcare-associated vaccine-preventable infections.

Room to Improve: An Audit of In-Hospital End-of-Life Care for Oncology Patients in a Tertiary Cancer Centre in Ireland During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic compounded isolation for patients through social distancing measures and staff shortages. We were concerned about the impact of COVID-19 on the quality of care provided at end-of-life in 2021 in a national cancer centre, and instigated the first ever review of the care of the dying. Quality of care was assessed retrospectively using a validated instrument developed by the United Kingdom's National Quality Board. Sixty-six patient deaths occurred in our cancer centre in 2021. The 'risk of dying' was documented in 65.2% of records. Palliative care services were involved in 77%, and pastoral care in 10.6%. What was important to the patient was documented in 24.2%. The 'quality-of-death' score was satisfactory for most but poor in 21.2%. Our study prompted change, including appointment of an end-of-life coordinator, development of a checklist to ensure comprehensive communication, expansion of the end-of-life committee to include junior doctors, and regular audit.

Understanding the role of mask-wearing during COVID-19 on the island of Ireland

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have played a key role in managing the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is challenging to estimate their impacts on disease spread and outcomes. On the island of Ireland, population mobility restrictions were imposed during the first wave, but mask-wearing was not mandated until about six months into the pandemic. We use data on mask-wearing, mobility, and season, over the first year of the pandemic to predict independently the weekly infectious contact estimated by an epidemiological model. Using our models, we make counterfactual predictions of infectious contact, and ensuing hospitalizations, under a hypothetical intervention where 90% of the population wore masks from the beginning of community spread until the dates of the mask mandates. Over periods including the first wave of the pandemic, there were 1601 hospitalizations with COVID-19 in Northern Ireland and 1521 in the Republic of Ireland. Under the counterfactual mask-wearing scenario, we estimate 512 (95% CI 400, 730) and 344 (95% CI 266, 526) hospitalizations in the respective jurisdictions during the same periods. This could be partly due to other factors that were also changing over time.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care in Ireland - Perspectives from a COVID-19 and Cancer Working Group

Upon the COVID-19 pandemic onset in Ireland, cancer service disruptions occurred due to prioritisation of COVID-19 related care, redeployment of staff, initial pausing of screening, diagnostic, medical and surgical oncology procedures, staff shortages due to COVID-19 infection and impacts on the physical and mental health of cancer healthcare workers. This was coupled with reluctance among people with symptoms suspicious for cancer to attend for clinical evaluation, due to concerns of contracting the virus. This was further compounded by a cyber-attack on national health service IT systems on May 14th 2021. The Irish Cancer Society, a national cancer charity with a role in advocacy, research and patient supports, convened a multi-disciplinary stakeholder group (COVID-19 and Cancer Working Group) to reflect on and understand the impact of the pandemic on cancer patients and services in Ireland, and discuss potential mitigation strategies. Perspectives on experiences were gathered across domains including timeliness of data acquisition and its conversion into intelligence, and the resourcing of cancer care to address cancer service impacts. The group highlighted aspects for future research to understand the long-term pandemic impact on cancer outcomes, while also highlighting potential strategies to support cancer services, build resilience and address delayed diagnosis. Additional measures include the need for cancer workforce recruitment and retention, increased mental health supports for both patients and oncology professionals, improvements to public health messaging, a near real-time multimodal national cancer database, and robust digital and physical infrastructure to mitigate impacts of the current pandemic and future challenges to cancer care systems.

The Divergent Pattern of SARS-CoV-2 Variant Predominance and Transmission Dynamics in the Brazilian Island of Ilhabela

Our effort in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in Brazil has detected the Alpha Variant of Concern with a predominance higher than 75% in the population of Ilhabela island (São Paulo State) at a time when the Gamma VOC was already predominating the mainland raised concerns for closer surveillance on this island. Therefore, we intensified the surveillance for 24 weeks by generating data from 34% of local positive cases. Our data show that the patterns of VOC predominance dynamics and infection rates were in general distinct from the mainland. We report here the first known case of Alpha predominance in a Brazilian population, a delay greater than 3 months for the Gamma to dominate the previous variants compared to the mainland, and a faster dispersion rate of Gamma and Delta VOCs compared to the mainland. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Ilhabela were characterized by multiple independent introduction events of Gamma and Delta, with a few events of Alpha introduction, two of them followed by community transmission. This study evidenced the peculiar behavior of SARS-CoV-2 variants in an isolated population and brought to light the importance of specific programs for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in isolated populations.

The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Cancer Trials Ireland: Impact, Resolution and Legacy

BACKGROUND

Cancer Trials Ireland (CTI) is the national cooperative group in Ireland. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic led to significant ongoing disruptive change in healthcare from March 2020 to the present day. Its impact and legacy on a national clinical trials organisation was assessed.

METHODS

A review was conducted of prospectively acquired communications, team logs and time sheets, trial activation, closure and accrual, for the period 2019 to September 2021. An online survey of the impact of the pandemic on clinical investigators and of clinical trials units was performed. A National Cancer Retreat was organised on 21 May 2021 to identify and address pandemic related disruption and develop adaptive strategies.

RESULTS

In the weeks after the pandemic was declared, remote working was initiated by all central office staff. Nationally, clinical trial accrual fell by 54% compared to the same period in 2019, radiotherapy trial accrual by 90%, and translational studies by 36%. Staff reassignment of research nurse staff occurred in 60% of units, trial monitoring was reduced in 42%, and trial initiations fell by 67%. Extreme fluctuations in monitoring hours were noted paralleling lockdown measures. Significant impact on all clinical trials units was noted including staff reassignments, reduced access to diagnostic imaging and reduced institutional supports. Remote clinic visits and remote monitoring was widely adopted. The National Cancer Retreat identified flexibility in trial conduct, staff recruitment and retention, the need for harmonisation of processes, and research staff support in the context of remote working as priorities.

CONCLUSION

The pandemic has had a significant ongoing negative impact on cancer clinical trial activity in Ireland. Adaptive strategies including trial flexibility, expanded telehealth and remote monitoring, harmonisation of processes and staff support have been identified as priorities to ameliorate this impact, and develop a more sustainable clinical trial ecosystem.

Quality improvement in a crisis: a qualitative study of experiences and lessons learned from the Irish National Ambulance Service response to the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced radical changes in international health services. In Ireland, the National Ambulance Service established a novel home and community testing service that was central to the national COVID-19 screening programme. This service was overseen by a multidisciplinary response room. This research examined the response room service, particularly areas that performed well and areas requiring improvement, using a quality improvement (QI) framework.

DESIGN

This was a qualitative study comprising semi-structured, individual interviews. Maximum variation sampling was used. The data were analysed using an established thematic analysis procedure. The analysis was guided by the framework, which comprised six QI drivers.

SETTING

Response room employees, including clinicians, dispatchers and administrators, were interviewed via telephone.

RESULTS

Leadership for quality: participants valued person-oriented leadership, including regular, open communication and consultation with staff. Person/family engagement: participants endeavoured to provide patient-centred care. Formal patient feedback mechanisms and shared decision-making could be beneficial in the future. Staff engagement: working in a response room could affect well-being, though it also provided networking and learning opportunities. Staff require support and teambuilding. Use of improvement methods: improvements were made in a relatively informal, ad hoc manner. The use of robust methods based on improvement science was not reported. Measurement for quality: data were collected to improve efficiency and accuracy. More rigorous measurement would be beneficial, especially formally collecting stakeholder feedback. Governance for quality: close alignment with collaborators and clear communication with staff are essential. Information and communications technology for quality: this seventh driver was added because the importance of information technology specially designed for pandemics was frequently highlighted.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides insights on what worked well and what required improvement in a pandemic response room. It can inform health services, particularly emergency services, in their preparation for additional COVID-19 waves, as well as future crises.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Impacts of Unvaccinated-Only Screening in Populations of Mixed Vaccination Status.. [PMID: 34909778 PMCID: PMC8669845 DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.19.21265231]

Community testing programs focused on the unvaccinated population are being enacted in populations with mixed vaccination status to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread. Presumably, these policies assume that the unvaccinated are driving transmission, though it is not well understood how viral spread occurs in mixed-status populations. Here, we analyze a model of transmission in which a variable fraction of the population is vaccinated, with unvaccinated individuals proactively screened for infection. By exploring a range of transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios, and rates of prior infection, this analysis reveals principles of viral spread in communities of mixed vaccination status, with implications for screening policies. As vaccination rates increase, the proportion of transmission driven by the unvaccinated population decreases, such that most community spread is driven by breakthrough infections once vaccine coverage exceeds 55% (omicron) or 80% (delta), with additional variation dependent on waning or boosted VE. More broadly, the potential impacts of unvaccinated-only screening fall into three distinct parameter regions: (I) “flattening the curve” with little impact on cumulative infections, (II) effectively suppressing transmission, and (III) negligible impact because herd immunity is reached without screening. By evaluating a wide range of scenarios, this work finds broadly that effective mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by unvaccinated-only screening is highly dependent on vaccination rate, population-level immunity, screening compliance, and vaccine effectiveness against the current variant.

First back-calculation and infection fatality multiplier estimate of the hidden prevalence of COVID-19 in Ireland

Background

To date computer models with multiple assumptions have focussed on predicting the incidence of symptomatic cases of COVID-19. Given emerging vaccines, the aim of this study was to provide simple methods for estimating the hidden prevalence of asymptomatic cases and levels of herd immunity to aid future immunization policy and planning. We applied the method in Ireland.

Methods

For large scale epidemics, indirect models for estimating prevalence have been developed. One such method is the benchmark multiplier method. A further method is back-calculation, which has been used successfully to produce estimates of the scale of a HIV infected population. The methods were applied from March to October 2020 and are applicable globally.

Results

Results demonstrated that the number of infected individuals was at least twice and possibly six times the number identified through testing. Our estimates ranged from ∼100 000 to 375 000 cases giving a ratio of 1–6 hidden cases for every known case within the study time frame. While both methods are subject to assumptions and limitations, it was interesting to observe that estimates corroborated government statements noting that 80% of people testing positive were asymptomatic.

Conclusions

As Europe has now endured several epidemic waves with the emergence globally of new variants, it essential that both policy makers and the public are aware of the scale of the hidden epidemic that may surround them. The need for social distancing is as important as ever as we await global immunization rollout.