Estimating the burden of influenza-attributable severe acute respiratory infections on the hospital system in Metropolitan France, 2012-2018

Impact of influenza related hospitalization in Spain: characteristics and risk factor of mortality during five influenza seasons (2016 to 2021)

Background

Estimating the global influenza burden in terms of hospitalization and death is important for optimizing prevention policies. Identifying risk factors for mortality allows for the design of strategies tailored to groups at the highest risk. This study aims to (a) describe the clinical characteristics of hospitalizations with a diagnosis of influenza over five flu seasons (2016-2017 to 2020-2021), (b) assess the associated morbidity (hospitalization rates and ICU admissions rate), mortality and cost of influenza hospitalizations in different age groups and (c) analyze the risk factors for mortality.

Methods

This retrospective study included all hospital admissions with a diagnosis of influenza in Spain for five influenza seasons. Data were extracted from the Spanish National Surveillance System for Hospital Data from 1 July 2016 to 30 June 2021. We identified cases coded as having influenza as a primary or secondary diagnosis (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, J09-J11). The hospitalization rate was calculated relative to the general population. Independent predictors of mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Over the five seasons, there were 127,160 hospitalizations with a diagnosis of influenza. The mean influenza hospitalization rate varied from 5/100,000 in 2020-2021 (COVID-19 pandemic) to 92.9/100,000 in 2017-2018. The proportion of influenza hospitalizations with ICU admission was 7.4% and was highest in people aged 40-59 years (13.9%). The case fatality rate was 5.8% overall and 9.4% in those aged 80 years or older. Median length of stay was 5 days (and 6 days in the oldest age group). In the multivariable analysis, independent risk factors for mortality were male sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.08-1.20), age (<5 years: OR 1; 5-19 years: OR 2.02, 95%CI 1.17-3.49; 20-39 years: OR 4.11, 95% CI 2.67-6.32; 40-59 years: OR 8.15, 95% CI 5.60-11.87; 60-79 years: OR 15.10, 95% CI 10.44-21.84; ≥80 years: OR 33.41, 95% CI 23.10-48.34), neurological disorder (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.83-2.11), heart failure (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.74-1.96), chronic kidney disease (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.25-1.41), chronic liver disease (OR 2.95, 95% CI 2.68-3.27), cancer (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.48-2.24), coinfection with SARS-CoV2 (OR 3.17, 95% CI 2.34-4.28), influenza pneumonia (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.66-1.86) and admission to intensive care (OR 7.81, 95% CI 7.31-8.36).

Conclusion

Influenza entails a major public health burden. People aged over 60-and especially those over 80-show the longest hospital stays. Age is also the most significant risk factor for mortality, along with certain associated comorbidities.

Respiratory syncytial virus-related hospital stays in adults in France from 2012 to 2021: A national hospital database study

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) that may lead to hospitalization or death. The present study aimed to assess the burden of RSV infections in hospitalized adults.

METHODS

RSV-related hospitalizations were identified from the nationwide hospital claims database in France (PMSI) from 2012 to 2021 using ICD-10 codes J12.1, J20.5, J21.0 or B97.4, and outcomes assessment focused on 2016-2020. In-hospital outcomes included length of stay, need for intensive care (ICU) and in-hospital all-cause mortality. Post-discharge outcomes included 30-day readmission for decompensation, 90-day RSV-related readmission, and 30 and 60-day in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A cumulated number of 17 483 RSV-related stays were identified representing a rate of 72.0 cases per million stays. The outcomes assessment included 12,987 patients: 55.8 % were females and the mean age was 74.1 ± 16.4 years, with 57 % ≥ 75 years. Most of patients (78.6 %) had at least one comorbidity, mainly chronic respiratory (56.3 %) and cardiovascular diseases (41.3 %), or diabetes (23.5 %). A co-infection was found in 22.4 %, primarily bacterial (12 %). The mean length of stay was 12.3 ± 13.1 days. Overall, 10.9 % were admitted to an ICU and in-hospital mortality was 7.3 %. In-hospital outcomes were higher in cases of co-infection. Among 12 033 patients alive at discharge from the index stay, 6.5 % were readmitted with RSV within 90 days, 8.1 % for decompensation within 30 days, and 5.6 % died within 60-day.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the high burden of RSV infections in older adults and those with chronic conditions, and the need for preventive strategies.

Influenza Hospitalization Burden by Subtype, Age, Comorbidity, and Vaccination Status: 2012-2013 to 2018-2019 Seasons, Quebec, Canada

BACKGROUND

Influenza immunization programs aim to reduce the risk and burden of severe outcomes. To inform optimal program strategies, we monitored influenza hospitalizations over 7 seasons, stratified by age, comorbidity, and vaccination status.

METHODS

We assembled data from 4 hospitals involved in an active surveillance network with systematic collection of nasal samples and polymerase chain reaction testing for influenza virus in all patients admitted through the emergency department with acute respiratory infection during the 2012-2013 to 2018-2019 influenza seasons in Quebec, Canada. We estimated seasonal, population-based incidence of influenza-associated hospitalizations by subtype predominance, age, comorbidity, and vaccine status, and derived the number needed to vaccinate to prevent 1 hospitalization per stratum.

RESULTS

The average seasonal incidence of influenza-associated hospitalization was 89/100 000 (95% confidence interval, 86-93), lower during A(H1N1) (49-82/100 000) than A(H3N2) seasons (73-143/100 000). Overall risk followed a J-shaped age pattern, highest among infants 0-5 months and adults ≥75 years old. Hospitalization risks were highest for children <5 years old during A(H1N1) but for highest adults aged ≥75 years during A(H3N2) seasons. Age-adjusted hospitalization risks were 7-fold higher among individuals with versus without comorbid conditions (214 vs 30/100 000, respectively). The number needed to vaccinate to prevent hospitalization was 82-fold lower for ≥75-years-olds with comorbid conditions (n = 1995), who comprised 39% of all hospitalizations, than for healthy 18-64-year-olds (n = 163 488), who comprised just 6% of all hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of broad-based influenza immunization programs (targeted or universal), severe outcome risks should be simultaneously examined by subtype, age, comorbidity, and vaccine status. Policymakers require such detail to prioritize promotional efforts and expenditures toward the greatest and most efficient program impact.

Uncertain SEIAR system dynamics modeling for improved community health management of respiratory virus diseases: A COVID-19 case study

The study investigates the significance of employing advanced systemic models in community health management, with a focus on COVID-19 as a respiratory virus. Through the development of a system dynamics model integrating an uncertain SEIAR model, our research addresses the critical issue of parameter uncertainty using Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms. We present a case study using real COVID-19 outbreaks in Iran, offering insights into effective outbreak control scenarios and considering the global impact of respiratory viruses. The research yields distinctive results, showcasing variable mortality rates (40,500 to 436,500) across scenarios in Iran. Model accuracy is rigorously evaluated using the Normalized Root-Mean-Square Deviation (NRMSD) for new cases, deaths, and recoveries (0.2 %, 1.2 %, and 0.6 % respectively). The outcomes not only contribute to the existing body of knowledge but also offer practical implications for healthcare policies, economic considerations, and sensitivity assessments related to respiratory diseases. This study stands out from others in its approach to modeling and addressing uncertainty within a system dynamics framework. The integration of EnKF and MH algorithms provides a nuanced understanding of parameter uncertainty, adding a layer of sophistication to the analysis. The application of the model to real-world COVID-19 outbreaks in Iran further enhances the study's relevance and applicability. In conclusion, the research introduces an uncertain SEIAR system dynamics model with unique contributions to policymaking, economic considerations, and sensitivity assessments for respiratory diseases. The outcomes and insights derived from the study not only advance our understanding of disease dynamics but also provide actionable information for effective public health management.

Risk factors for death associated with severe influenza in children and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical characteristics

Background

To summarize the clinical features of severe influenza in children and the high-risk factors for influenza-related deaths and to raise awareness among pediatricians.

Methods

A retrospective study of clinical manifestations, laboratory tests, and diagnosis and treatment of 243 children with severe influenza admitted to Shenzhen Children's Hospital from January 2009 to December 2022 was conducted. Univariate logistic regression analysis and Boruta analysis were also performed to identify potentially critical clinical characteristics associated with death, and clinically significant were used in further multivariate logistic regression analysis. Subject receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to assess the efficacy of death-related independent risk factors to predict death from severe influenza.

Results

There were 169 male and 74 female patients with severe influenza, with a median age of 3 years and 2 months and 77.4% of patients under six. There were 46 cases (18.9%) in the death group. The most common pathogen was Influenza A virus (IAV) (81.5%). The most common complication in the death group was influenza-associated acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE [52.2%]). Severe influenza in children decreased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a median age of 5 years, a high predominance of neurological symptoms such as ANE (P = 0.001), and the most common pathogen being H3N2 (P < 0.001). D-dimer, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE) were significant independent risk factors for severe influenza-associated death. Furthermore, the ROC curves showed that the combined diagnosis of independent risk factors had significant early diagnostic value for severe influenza-related deaths.

Conclusion

Neurological disorders such as ANE are more significant in children with severe influenza after the COVID-19 pandemic. Influenza virus infection can cause serious multisystem complications such as ARDS and ANE, and D-dimer has predictive value for early diagnosis and determination of the prognosis of children with severe influenza.