Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model

Impact of Digital Navigation on Screening Adherence With the Multi-Target Stool DNA Test

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most frequently diagnosed cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States. Screening can prevent CRC by detecting advanced precancerous lesions. Adherence to screening is crucial in reducing CRC disease burden; however, there is limited research on the impact of digital outreach screening uptake and adherence. Objective: This study evaluated the impact of different digital outreach channels on patient adherence to CRC screening with a multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA) test in a real-world setting. Methods: Patients were individuals aged 45 to 85 years with a valid mt-sDNA test order from Exact Sciences Laboratories, LLC (Jan. 1, 2023-Sept. 23, 2023). All patients received letters and phone calls; some received short message service (SMS), email, or both. Adherence and time to test return were compared across digital outreach categories stratified by patient characteristics. Multivariable regression evaluated the association of digital outreach methods with adherence and time to test return. Results: Among 2 425 308 patients (43.5% between 50 and 64 years, 58.2% female), digital SMS only (62.7%) was the most common outreach method. Overall adherence was 70.1%, with highest adherence in the digital SMS-plus-email group (72.9%). Mean time to test return from shipment of mt-sDNA kit to receipt of valid test was 25.8 days. In adjusted analyses, patients receiving digital SMS plus email had the highest odds of test return (odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.73-1.78; P<.001) and had return times 8.7% shorter than the no-digital-outreach group (95% CI, 8.2-9.2; P<.001). Discussion: Among nationally insured individuals within the recommended age range for CRC screening, overall adherence to the mt-sDNA test was in the 70s, with the highest rates in the digital (SMS and email) outreach group and the lowest in the no-digital-outreach group. Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of multichannel navigation in facilitating completion of CRC screening with the mt-sDNA test.

Costs of colorectal cancer screening in Sweden: an observational, longitudinal cost description

OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes have been implemented worldwide, but the evidence of the economic consequences of screening programmes relies on data from short-term trials. The aim of this paper was to describe the costs of CRC screening in a population-based screening programme, using administrative real-world data. Specifically, we aimed to estimate the annual costs of the screening programme and the total costs of the full programme over five consecutive screening rounds.

METHODS

The CRC screening programme of Stockholm-Gotland, Sweden, targeted all resident men and women aged 60-69 years for biennial screening. The screening strategy was faecal occult blood testing (FOBT) sent to individuals' home addresses, with a positive test result leading to an invitation to diagnostic colonoscopy. The cost description was conducted with a retrospective, bottom-up costing design from a healthcare perspective using (1) a prevalence-based approach and (2) an incidence-based approach, with two different study samples.

RESULTS

Annual healthcare costs were estimated using a sample of 124 608 individuals who were affected by the screening programme in 2017. Annual healthcare costs of the screening programme summed up to €273 758 per 10 000 people, equivalent to €27.4 per eligible individual. The sum of costs for colonoscopy procedures was more than two times as high as the costs for FOBT. The costs of the full screening programme were estimated using a cohort of 92 689 individuals who were invited to five consecutive rounds of screening between 2009 and 2021. Total healthcare costs over five screening rounds were €960 654 per 10 000 people, equivalent to €96.1 per individual.

CONCLUSION

The costs of diagnostic colonoscopies for a minority of participants were driving the costs of the CRC screening programme. The ongoing population-based screening programme and high-quality individual level data with long-term follow-up provide the opportunity to thoroughly describe the costs of CRC screening.

The absolute number of small and diminutive adenomas with high-grade dysplasia is substantially higher compared with large adenomas: a retrospective pooled study

Introduction

The risk that a large polyp (≥10 mm) evolves into high-grade dysplasia (HGD) is relatively high compared with that of a small/diminutive polyp (<10 mm). Recently, the detection of small and diminutive polyps has been substantially improved with the advancement of endoscopy. However, further research is needed on the role of the incidence of HGD caused by the co-occurrence of small and diminutive polyps in the progression of HGD. In this study, we aim to investigate whether and how the small and diminutive polyps correlate with the incidence of HGD in the population.

Methods

The pooled data were deeply analyzed from four published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarding colon polyp detection. All polyps detected were examined and confirmed by pathologists. The primary outcome was the composition ratio of the HGD polyps in each polyp size category.

Results

Among a total of 3,179 patients with 2,730 polyps identified, there were 83 HGD polyps confirmed, and 68 patients had at least one polyp with HGD. The risk of development of HGD was lower for a single small and diminutive polyp than for one large polyp (2.18% vs. 22.22%, P < 0.0001). On the contrary, the composition ratio for HGD from small and diminutive polyps was significantly higher than that from the large ones (68.67% vs. 31.33%, P < 0.0001). The combined number of HGD presented a trend negatively correlated to size.

Conclusions

Our data demonstrated that the absolute number of HGD significantly derives more from small and diminutive polyps than from the large ones, and the collective number of small and diminutive polyps per patient is indicative of his/her HGD exposure. These findings positively provide novel perspectives on the management of polyps and may further optimize the prevention of colorectal cancer.

Systematic Review Registration

http://www.chictr.org.cn, identifier ChiCTR1900025235, ChiCTR1800017675, ChiCTR1800018058, and ChiCTR1900023086.

A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Europe: Have Studies Included Optimal Screening Intensities?

OBJECTIVE

To assess the range of strategies analysed in European cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with respect to the screening intervals, age ranges and test cut-offs used to define positivity, to examine how this might influence what strategies are found to be optimal, and compare them with the current screening policies with a focus on the screening interval.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus for peer-reviewed, model-based CEAs of CRC screening. We included studies on average-risk European populations using the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) or faecal immunochemical test (FIT). We adapted Drummond's ten-point checklist to appraise study quality.

RESULTS

We included 39 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Biennial screening was the most frequently used interval which was analysed in 37 studies. Annual screening was assessed in 13 studies, all of which found it optimally cost-effective. Despite this, 25 of 26 European stool-based programmes use biennial screening. Many CEAs did not vary the age range, but the 14 that did generally found broader ranges optimal. Only 11 studies considered alternative FIT cut-offs, 9 of which found lower cut-offs superior. Conflicts between current policy and CEA evidence are less clear regarding age ranges and cut-offs.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing CEA evidence indicates that the widely adopted biennial frequency of stool-based testing in Europe is suboptimal. It is likely that many more lives could be saved throughout Europe if programmes could be offered with more intensive annual screening.

Budget impact analysis of a home-based colorectal cancer screening programme in Malaysia

OBJECTIVES

The 2020-2022 research project 'Colorectal Cancer Screening Intervention for Malaysia' (CRC-SIM) evaluated the implementation of a home-based CRC screening pilot in Segamat District. This budget impact analysis (BIA) assessed the expected changes in health expenditure of the Malaysian Ministry of Health budget in the scenario where the pilot programme was implemented nationwide vs current opportunistic screening.

DESIGN

Budget impact analysis. Assumptions and costs in the opportunistic and novel CRC screening scenarios were derived from a previous evaluation of opportunistic CRC screening in community health clinics across Malaysia and the CRC-SIM research project, respectively.

SETTING

National level (with supplement analysis for district level). The BIA was conducted from the viewpoint of the federal government and estimated the annual financial impact over a period of 5 years.

RESULTS

The total annual cost of the current practice of opportunistic screening was RM1 584 321 (~I$1 099 460) of which 80% (RM1 274 690 or ~I$884 587) was expended on the provision of opportunistic CRC to adults who availed of the service. Regarding the implementation of national CRC screening programme, the net budget impact in the first year was estimated to be RM107 631 959 (~I$74 692 546) and to reach RM148 485 812 (~I$103 043 589) in the fifth year based on an assumed increased uptake of 5% annually. The costs were calculated to be sensitive to the probability of adults who were contactable, eligible and agreeable to participating in the programme.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from the BIA provided direct and explicit estimates of the budget changes to when implementing a population-based national CRC screening programme to aid decision making by health services planners and commissioners in Malaysia about whether such programme is affordable within given their budget constraint. The study also illustrates the use and value of the BIA approach in low-income and middle-income countries and resource-constrained settings.

Costs and outcomes of colorectal cancer screening program in Isfahan, Iran

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is one of the most prevalent gastrointestinal cancers in Iran i.e., the fourth and the second prevalent cancer among Iranian males and females, respectively. A routine screening program is effective in the early detection of disease which can reduce the cancer burden both for individuals and society. In 2015, Iran's Package of Essential Non- communicable Diseases program had been piloted in Shahreza city in Isfahan province. Colorectal cancer screening for the population aged 50-70 was a part of this program. So far, there was no study about the cost and outcomes of that program. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the costs and outcomes of colorectal cancer screening done from 2016 to 2019 in Shahreza.

METHODS

This cost-outcome description study used the data of 19,392 individuals who were 50-70 years old experienced a fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and had an electronic health record. All direct costs including personnel, building space, equipment, training, etc. were extracted from the financial documents existing in the Isfahan province Health Center. The outcome was defined as positive FIT, detection of adenoma or malignancy as recorded in the E-integrated health system.

RESULTS

The results of this study indicated that the direct costs of the colorectal cancer screening program during the years 2016-2019 were 7,368,707,574 Rials (321,029 PPP$) in Shahreza, Isfahan province. These costs resulted in identifying 821 people with a positive FIT test, of those 367 individuals were undergone colonoscopy. Of whom 8 cases of colorectal cancer, and 151 cases with polyps were diagnosed.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that by paying a small amount of 320 thousand international dollars we could prevent 151 cases of polyps to be progressed to colorectal cancer,resulting in a significant reduction in colorectal cancer incidence.

Breast, cervical, and lung cancer: A comparison of real healthcare costs and INA-CBGs rates in the era of national health insurance

Background

In Indonesia, the cost of cancer treatment has been determined by the Indonesian Case Base Groups (INA-CBGs) based on a code called the INA-CBG's rates. However, a fair claim should be based on the severity of the disease and the class of treatment in the hospital, not on the rates of code. In fact, the real cost of therapy for cancer is influenced by several factors including stage, comorbidity, and severity (INA-CBGs coding, type of hospital, hospital class, treatment grade, side effects, and length of stay), so in many cases, there are reported differences between the real costs and the INA-CBGs rates charged to patients.

Objective

This study aims to investigate the difference between real treatment costs and INA-CBG's rates for cases of lung cancer, cervical cancer, and breast cancer at a cancer center hospital in Indonesia.

Methods

This work uses an observational study, and the data were taken retrospectively from hospital financial data and patient medical records. The data were then analyzed using a one-sample t-test to determine the difference between real costs and INA-CBGs costs.

Results

The results showed that there was no significant difference between real costs and INA-CBG's cost on stage II lung cancer treatment in grade 2 with a sig. value of 0.683; code C-4-13-II in grade 3 with a sig. value of 0.151; and code C-4-13-III in grade 3 with a sig. value of 0.650; where the significance level (t alpha) is more than 0.05. Furthermore, the treatment costs for cervical cancer with codes C-4-13-I and C-4-13-II in grade 1 had sig. values of 0.155 and 0.720 respectively. Lastly, the treatment cost for breast cancer patients with codes C-4-12-II in grade 3 had a sig. value of 0.145 and code C-4-13-II in grade 3 showed a sig. value of 0.091.

Conclusion

Although statistical evaluation showed a significant difference for some cases and not significant for other cases, in real conditions, there is a difference between the INA-CBGs and the real costs that must be evaluated by the government and stakeholders to provide justice for cancer patients.

Health-related quality of life by household income in Chile: a concentration index decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

Health inequities have a profound impact on all dimensions of people's lives, with invariably worse results among the most disadvantaged, transforming them into a more fragile and vulnerable population. These unfair inequalities also affect dimensions focused on subjectivity, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL), which has been positioned, in recent decades, as an important outcome in health decision-making. The main objective of this study is to estimate socioeconomic inequality in HRQoL of Chilean by household income.  METHODS: Secondary analysis of the National Health Survey (ENS 2016-2017, Chile). This survey includes a nationally representative, stratified, and multistage household sample of people aged 15 and above. Socioeconomic inequality in HRQoL (EQ5D) is estimated by the concentration index (CI) ranked by household income. Decomposition analysis is conducted to examine potential explanatory sociodemographic factors.  RESULTS: The CI for household income inequality in HRQoL was -0.063. The lower the household income, the worse the HRQoL reported by in Chile. The decomposition analysis revealed that socioeconomic position contributes 75,7% to inequality in the quality of life, followed by educational level (21.8%), female gender (17.3%), and type of Health Insurance (15%), age (-19.7%) and residence (-10.8%). Less than 1% corresponds to the unexplained residual component.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest the existence of a disproportionate concentration of worse HRQoL in the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups in Chile. This inequality is largely, yet not completely, associated with household income. Other significant factors associated with this inequality are education, gender, and healthcare insurance. These results suggest the need of strengthening efforts to reducing socioeconomic gaps in health outcomes in Chile, as a means to achieve social justice and equity in health and healthcare.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening in Shanghai, China: a modelling study

•

The current Shanghai CRC screening program is cost-effective.

•

Changing to a validated FIT would make the program more efficient.

•

The results were sensitive to an increase in the cost of the validated FIT.

•

The results were sensitive to more participation in screening and colonoscopy.

Background

The current community-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program in Shanghai, launched in 2013, invited individuals aged 50–74 years to triennial screening with a qualitative faecal immunochemical test (FIT) and questionnaire-based risk assessment (RA). We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the existing Shanghai screening program and compare it to using a validated two-sample quantitative FIT.

Methods

We simulated four strategies (no screening, Shanghai FIT, Shanghai FIT + RA and validated FIT) for the Shanghai screening program and evaluated CRC incidence, CRC mortality, the number of life years gained (LYG), the number of FITs, and colonoscopies required for each. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to assess the cost- effectiveness of each strategy.

Results

All screening modalities reduced CRC incidence and CRC mortality, gained extra number of LYG compared to no screening. Screening using the Shanghai FIT and validated FIT reduced CRC incidence from 45 cases to 43 per 1,000 simulated individuals (4.4%). Incidence was reduced to 42 cases (6.7%) using the Shanghai FIT + RA. All screening strategies reduced CRC mortality by 10.0% (from 10 to 9 deaths) and resulted in 6 to 7 LYG. The validated FIT was the most cost-effective among the evaluated strategies (ICER ¥26,461 per LYG).

Conclusions

Our findings show that the current Shanghai screening program is (cost-) effective compared to no screening, but changing to a validated FIT would make the program more efficient.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a lung cancer screening programme in Spain

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the implementation of national lung cancer (LC) screening programme (SP) in a high-risk population from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System (NHS).

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis for a LC SP was carried out on a lifetime horizon. A Markov model was designed that assumed two scenarios, one with the implementation of the SP and another one without it. Effectiveness and cost of LC management, diagnosis and screening were included in the different health states. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate its robustness. A discount rate was set at 3% both for effectiveness and cost.

RESULTS

In the base-case, an increase of 4.80 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) per patient was obtained, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €2345/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed the national LC SP to be cost-effective in 80% of cases (probability=0.8) for a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to the gross domestic product per capita in Spain, which was set at €25 854/QALY in 2018 based on the per capita income of Spain. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the obtained results are robust in terms of changes in the presentation rates and costs, and the cost-effectiveness thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis suggests that the implementation of a LC SP in the high-risk Spanish population would be a cost-effective strategy for the Spanish NHS.

Health economic studies of colorectal cancer and the contribution of administrative data: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Several forces are contributing to an increase in the number of people living with and surviving colorectal cancer (CRC). However, due to the lack of available data, little is known about the implications of these forces. In recent years, the use of administrative records to inform research has been increasing. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential contribution that administrative data could have on the health economic research of CRC.

METHODS

To achieve this aim, we conducted a systematic review of the health economic CRC literature published in the United Kingdom and Europe within the last decade (2009-2019).

RESULTS

Thirty-seven relevant studies were identified and divided into economic evaluations, cost of illness studies and cost consequence analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of administrative data, including cancer registry, screening and hospital records, within the health economic research of CRC is commonplace. However, we found that this data often come from regional databases, which reduces the generalisability of results. Further, administrative data appear less able to contribute towards understanding the wider and indirect costs associated with the disease. We explore several ways in which various sources of administrative data could enhance future research in this area.

Aspects of colorectal cancer screening, methods, age and gender

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is, besides breast, prostate, lung and skin cancers, the most common cancer worldwide and is suitable for screening. The incidence of CRC varies considerably in different parts of the world: in well-developed countries, the incidence is between 30 and 70 per 100 000 inhabitants, whereas in less-developed countries such as sub-Saharan Africa, it is 10-20/100 000 inhabitants. Women have a lower incidence of CRC, which is usually one-third of total incidence. Several studies have shown that it is possible to decrease mortality from CRC with about 20%, which is evidenced through the data from countries with screening programmes. Though the method of choice to identify blood samples in faecal matter is under debate, the most feasible way is to perform colonoscopy. Other methods include more advanced faecal analyses, testing for mutations from CRC, sigmoidoscopy, CT colonoscopy or optical colonoscopy. Colonoscopy is in most countries not available in sufficient amount and has to be carried out with great accuracy; otherwise, lesions will be missed to identify, thus leading to complications. Gender is an issue in CRC screening, as women have about 20% fewer colorectal adenomas and CRCs, but they also have more right-sided lesions, which are more difficult to detect with tests for faecal blood since they create less blood in faeces. Thus, other strategies may have to be developed for women in order for screening to have the same effect. It is essential to introduce colorectal cancer screening in all countries together with other clinical pieces of advice such as information on smoking, obesity and exercise in order to reduce one of the most dangerous cancers.

Health care costs of breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancer care by clinical stage and cost component

OBJECTIVE

To measure 3-year care costs of breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancers disaggregated by site and clinical stage.

METHOD

A retrospective observational design was employed to investigate care costs of cases recorded in the Registry of the Basque Country between 2010 and 2015. Data gathered included TNM stage and demographic, clinical and resource use variables. Total costs per patient with stage IV disease were calculated by combining generalized linear models with parametric survival analysis. Unit costs were obtained from the analytical accounting system of the Basque Health Service.

RESULTS

The sample comprised 23,782 cancer cases (7801 colorectal, 5530 breast, 4802 prostate and 5649 lung cancer). The mean 3-year costs per patient with stage I to III disease were €11,323, €13,727, €8,651 and €12,023 for colorectal, breast, prostate and lung cancer, respectively. The most important cost components were surgery and chemotherapy. Total survival-adjusted costs until death for patients with stage IV disease (€27,568, €26,296, €16,151 and €15,931 for breast, colorectal, lung and prostate cancer, respectively) were higher than the 3-year costs for those with earlier-stage disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study quantitatively shows the pattern of changes in the economic burden of cancer throughout its natural history and the great magnitude of this burden for the health system. The use of indicators based on real-world data from each regional health service would allow cancer care in each region to be tailored to local population needs.

A predictive model for early recurrence of colorectal-cancer liver metastases based on clinical parameters

Background

The prognosis for patients with colorectal-cancer liver metastases (CRLM) after curative surgery remains poor and shows great heterogeneity. Early recurrence, defined as tumor recurrence within 6 months of curative surgery, is associated with poor survival, requiring earlier detection and intervention. This study aimed to develop and validate a bedside model based on clinical parameters to predict early recurrence in CRLM patients and provide insight into post-operative surveillance strategies.

Material and methods

A total of 202 consecutive CRLM patients undergoing curative surgeries between 2012 and 2019 were retrospectively enrolled and randomly assigned to the training (n = 150) and validation (n = 52) sets. Baseline information and radiological, pathological, and laboratory findings were extracted from medical records. Predictive factors for early recurrence were identified via a multivariate logistic-regression model to develop a predictive nomogram, which was validated for discrimination, calibration, and clinical application.

Results

Liver-metastases number, lymph-node suspicion, neurovascular invasion, colon/rectum location, albumin and post-operative carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19–9 levels (CA19–9) were independent predictive factors and were used to construct the nomogram for early recurrence after curative surgery. The area under the curve was 0.866 and 0.792 for internal and external validation, respectively. The model significantly outperformed the clinical risk score and Beppu’s model in our data set. In the lift curve, the nomogram boosted the detection rate in post-operative surveillance by two-fold in the top 30% high-risk patients.

Conclusion

Our model for early recurrence in CRLM patients after curative surgeries showed superior performance and could aid in the decision-making for selective follow-up strategies.

The health economic impact of varying levels of adherence to colorectal screening on providers and payers

AIMS

To examine the impact of increasing multi-target stool DNA test (mt-sDNA [Cologuard]) utilization for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in cohorts aged 50-75 and 45-75 years old with varying levels of adherence from the perspectives of integrated delivery networks (IDNs) and payers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We developed a budget impact model that simulates CRC screening with colonoscopy over a 10-year time horizon, fecal immunochemical test (FIT), and mt-sDNA according to the United States Preventive Services Task Force and American Cancer Society guidelines for average risk adults. We evaluated varying levels of screening adherence for a status quo scenario and for an increased mt-sDNA utilization scenario, from the IDN and payer perspectives. The IDN perspective included CRC screening program costs, whereas the payer perspective did not. Conversely, stool-based screening test and bowel preparation costs were unique to the payer perspective.

RESULTS

The increased mt-sDNA scenarios yielded cost savings relative to the status quo under all adherence scenarios due to a decrease in screening and surveillance colonoscopies. For ages 50-75, in high and low adherence scenarios, savings were $19.8 M ($0.16 per-person-per-month (PPPM)) and $33.3 M ($0.28 PPPM) from the IDN perspective. From the payer perspective, savings were $4.2 M ($0.03 PPPM) and $6.7 M ($0.06 PPPM). For ages 45-75, in high and low adherence scenarios, cost savings were $19.3 M ($0.16 PPPM) and $33.0 M ($0.28 PPPM) from the IDN perspective and $3.9 M ($0.03 PPPM) and $6.2 M ($0.05 PPPM) from the payer perspective. In all imperfect adherence scenarios, the degree of cost-savings with increased mt-sDNA utilization correlated with the aggregate decrease in screening and surveillance colonoscopies.

LIMITATIONS

Estimates of real-world adherence levels were based on cross-sectional screening data from the literature, and assumptions were applied to individual screening modalities and screening scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

Among all adherence scenarios, perspectives, and age ranges, increased mt-sDNA utilization yielded cost-savings.

Modeling costs and benefits of the organized colorectal cancer screening programme and its potential future improvements in Hungary

OBJECTIVE

The national population-based colorectal cancer screening programme in Hungary was initiated in December 2018. We aimed to evaluate the current programme and investigate the costs and benefits of potential future changes to overcome the low coverage of the target population.

METHODS

We performed an economic evaluation from a healthcare payer perspective using an established micro-simulation model (Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon). We simulated costs and benefits of screening with fecal immunochemical test in the Hungarian population aged 50-100, investigating also the impact of potential future scenarios which were assumed to increase invitation coverage: improvement of the IT platform currently used by GPs or distributing the tests through pharmacies instead of GPs.

RESULTS

The model predicted that the current screening programme could lead to 6.2% colorectal cancer mortality reduction between 2018 and 2050 compared to no screening. Even higher reductions, up to 16.6%, were estimated when tests were distributed through pharmacies and higher coverage was assumed. This change in the programme was estimated to require up to 26 million performed fecal immunochemical tests and 1 million colonoscopies for the simulated period. These future scenarios have acceptable cost-benefit ratios of €8000-€8700 per life-years gained depending on the assumed adherence of invited individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

With its limitations, the current colorectal cancer screening programme in Hungary will have a modest impact on colorectal cancer mortality. Significant improvements in mortality reduction could be made at acceptable costs, if the tests were to be distributed by pharmacies allowing the entire target population to be invited.

Simulation modeling validity and utility in colorectal cancer screening delivery: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to assess the impact and validity of simulation modeling in informing decision making in a complex area of healthcare delivery: colorectal cancer (CRC) screening.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched 10 electronic databases for English-language articles published between January 1, 2008, and March 1, 2019, that described the development of a simulation model with a focus on average-risk CRC screening delivery. Included articles were reviewed for evidence that the model was validated, and provided real or potential contribution to informed decision making using the GRADE EtD (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Evidence to Decision) framework.

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies met criteria. The majority used Markov modeling (n = 31 [72%]) and sought to determine cost-effectiveness, compare screening modalities, or assess effectiveness of screening. No study reported full model validation and only (58%) reported conducting any validation. Majority of models were developed to address a specific health systems or policy question; few articles report the model's impact on this decision (n = 39 [91%] vs. n = 5 [12%]). Overall, models provided evidence relevant to every element important to decision makers as outlined in the GRADE EtD framework.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Simulation modeling contributes evidence that is considered valuable to decision making in CRC screening delivery, particularly in assessing cost-effectiveness and comparing screening modalities. However, the actual impact on decisions and validity of models is lacking in the literature. Greater validity testing, impact assessment, and standardized reporting of both is needed to understand and demonstrate the reliability and utility of simulation modeling.

Individual feedback and monitoring of endoscopist performance improves the adenoma detection rate in screening colonoscopy: a prospective case-control study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Previous reports have suggested that a longer withdrawal time (WT) during colonoscopy led to an improved adenoma detection rate (ADR); however, there are few controlled studies that substantiated monitoring WT as an educational method. We aimed to validate a feedback and monitoring system to improve the ADR in screening colonoscopy in a prospective case-control setting.

METHODS

After collecting data in the pre-feedback period (3.5 months), the individual performance and the average ADR and WT values of the facility were provided to 6 endoscopists in the intervention group, while 3 endoscopists were isolated as the control group during the feedback period (2 weeks). The intervention group consisted of two subgroups, the Fast and Slow WT groups, according to the results from the pre-feedback period. The endoscopists in the intervention group were instructed to be aware of their own WT in each examination during the post-feedback period (4 months). The performances of all endoscopists in the post-feedback period were analyzed and compared with those in the pre-feedback period.

RESULTS

Among the initial analyses, the correlation analysis and multivariate analysis revealed that WT was an independent predictor for the ADR (P = 0.0101). After providing individual performance feedback and instruction regarding real-time WT monitoring, the WT was significantly prolonged in the Fast WT group (P = 0.0346) but did not change in the Slow WT and control groups. In addition, the ADR of the Fast WT group significantly improved after the intervention (P = 0.024), whereas the ADR of the Slow WT and control groups did not change.

CONCLUSION

Providing individual feedback on ADR and WT and monitoring WT helped improve the endoscopists' ADRs.

Impact of an organised population screening programme for colorectal cancer: Measurement after first and second rounds

OBJECTIVE

The first and second rounds of the Basque programme for organised colorectal cancer screening were implemented between 2009 and 2014. Our objective was to measure the changes in incidence, tumour, node, metastasis staging distribution and tumour, node, metastasis-adjusted survival of patients with colorectal cancer from 2003 to 2014.

METHOD

Colorectal cancer cases with screening (patients <70 years old) and without screening (patients ≥70 years old) were compared during three four-year periods: 2003-2006, 2007-2010 and 2011-2014 (fully implemented phase). Cox regression, five-year relative survival and cancer probability of death were calculated for each four-year period, age group and tumour, node, metastasis stage. Adjusted incidence rates were analysed by joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

In an analysis of 23,301 cases of colorectal cancer, the incidence in patients younger than 70 years in 2013 showed a 17% annual decrease. The survival hazard ratios for stages I, II and III for 2003-2006 and 2007-2010 were compared to those for 2011-2014. From the first to the third period, diagnosis in the early stages (I and II) rose from 45.1% to 50.9% in the younger patient group and remained stable in the older group (49.6% and 49.4%). Additionally, the five-year relative survival rate increased significantly from 0.67 to 0.82 in those patients younger than 70 years, whereas in patients 70 years or older the rate did not change significantly (0.61 and 0.65).

CONCLUSION

The screening reduced incidence and improved survival by anticipating the diagnosis and by reducing mortality for each tumour, node, metastasis stage in the target population. The effect on survival could also be due to lead-time bias.

Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Widespread screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) has reduced its incidence and mortality. Previous studies investigated the economic effects of CRC screening. We performed a systematic review to provide up-to-date evidence of the cost effectiveness of CRC screening strategies by answering 3 research questions.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, National Institute for Health Research Economic Evaluation Database, Social Sciences Citation Index (via the Web of Science), EconLit (American Economic Association) and 3 supplemental databases for original articles published in English from January 2010 through December 2017. All monetary values were converted to US dollars (year 2016). For all research questions, we extracted, or calculated (if necessary), per-person costs and life years (LYs) and/or quality-adjusted LYs, as well as the incremental costs per LY gained or quality-adjusted LY gained compared with the baseline strategy. A cost-saving strategy was defined as one that was less costly and equally or more effective than the baseline strategy. The net monetary benefit approach was used to answer research question 2.

RESULTS

Our review comprised 33 studies (17 from Europe, 11 from North America, 4 from Asia, and 1 from Australia). Annual and biennial guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests, annual and biennial fecal immunochemical tests, colonoscopy every 10 years, and flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years were cost effective (even cost saving in most US models) compared to no screening. In addition, colonoscopy every 10 years was less costly and/or more effective than other common strategies in the United States. Newer strategies such as computed tomographic colonography, every 5 or 10 years, was cost effective compared with no screening.

CONCLUSIONS

In an updated review, we found that common CRC screening strategies and computed tomographic colonography continued to be cost effective compared to no screening. There were discrepancies among studies from different regions, which could be associated with the model types or model assumptions.

Cost-utility analysis of colonoscopy or faecal immunochemical test for population-based organised colorectal cancer screening

Background

Organised programmes for colorectal cancer screening demand a high burden of medical and economic resources. The preferred methods are the faecal immunochemical test and primary colonoscopy.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to perform an economic analysis and comparison between these tests in Europe.

Methods

We used a Markov cost-utility analysis from a societal perspective comparing biennial faecal immunochemical test or colonoscopy every 10 years screening versus non-screening in Portugal. The population was screened, aged from 50-74 years, and efficacy was evaluated in quality-adjusted life years. For the base-case scenario, the faecal immunochemical test cost was €3 with 50% acceptance and colonoscopy cost was €397 with 38% acceptance. The threshold was set at €39,760/quality-adjusted life years and the primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Results

Screening by biennial faecal immunochemical test and primary colonoscopy every 10 years resulted in incremental utilities of 0.00151 quality-adjusted life years and 0.00185 quality-adjusted life years at additional costs of €4 and €191, respectively. The faecal immunochemical test was the most cost-effective option providing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €2694/quality-adjusted life years versus €103,633/quality-adjusted life years for colonoscopy. Colonoscopy capacity would have to increase 1.3% for a faecal immunochemical test programme or 31% for colonoscopy.

Conclusion

Biennial faecal immunochemical test screening is better than colonoscopy as it is cost-effective, allows more individuals to get screened, and provides a more rational use of the endoscopic capacity available.