Activity limitations predict health care expenditures in the general population in Belgium

Predictive value of the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) on all-cause mortality

OBJECTIVES

The Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) is an instrument that measures long-term overall disability. The objective of this study was to evaluate GALI's predictive value on mortality while examining variations according to sex, age, and educational level.

STUDY DESIGN

Longitudinal study.

METHODS

This longitudinal study was based on 42,991 individuals aged ≥15 years who participated in the 2011-2012 National Health Survey and the 2014 European Health Survey in Spain. These records were linked to mortality data up to December 2021. GALI assessed self-reported functional limitation in the past 6 months and classified individuals into three categories: severely limited, limited but not severely, and not limited. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using Poisson regression models, adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health status variables.

RESULTS

Compared to individuals with no limitations, those with non-severe limitations had an IRR for mortality of 1.27 (95% CI: 1.16-1.38), and 2.04 (95% CI: 1.81-2.31) in those with severe limitations. Women with severe limitations exhibited a higher IRR (2.32; 95% CI: 1.98-2.71) compared to men (1.73; 95% CI: 1.45-2.08) (P for interaction = 0.005). Individuals <65 years with severe limitations showed a greater association (2.22; 95% CI: 1.58-3.10) than those ≥65 (1.49; 95% CI: 1.32-1.69) (P for interaction <0.001). Among individuals with lower educational attainment, the IRR was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.83-2.37), and 1.87 (95% CI: 1.37-2.56) for the higher education group (P for interaction = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

GALI is a robust predictor of all-cause mortality in the general population and subgroups. The association is stronger in women, individuals <65 years, and those with lower educational levels.

Linking health survey data with health insurance data: methodology, challenges, opportunities and recommendations for public health research. An experience from the HISlink project in Belgium

In recent years, the linkage of survey data to health administrative data has increased. This offers new opportunities for research into the use of health services and public health. Building on the HISlink use case, the linkage of Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) data and Belgian Compulsory Health Insurance (BCHI) data, this paper provides an overview of the practical implementation of linking data, the outcomes in terms of a linked dataset and of the studies conducted as well as the lessons learned and recommendations for future links.Individual BHIS 2013 and 2018 data was linked to BCHI data using the national register number. The overall linkage rate was 92.3% and 94.2% for HISlink 2013 and HISlink 2018, respectively. Linked BHIS-BCHI data were used in validation studies (e.g. self-reported breast cancer screening; chronic diseases, polypharmacy), in policy-driven research (e.g., mediation effect of health literacy in the relationship between socioeconomic status and health related outcomes, and in longitudinal study (e.g. identifying predictors of nursing home admission among older BHIS participants). The linkage of both data sources combines their strengths but does not overcome all weaknesses.The availability of a national register number was an asset for HISlink. Policy-makers and researchers must take initiatives to find a better balance between the right to privacy of respondents and society's right to evidence-based information to improve health. Researchers should be aware that the procedures necessary to implement a link may have an impact on the timeliness of their research. Although some aspects of HISlink are specific to the Belgian context, we believe that some lessons learned are useful in an international context, especially for other European Union member states that collect similar data.

Out-of-Pocket Health Care Spending at Older Ages: Do Caregiving Arrangements Matter?

Identifying the correlates of out-of-pocket (OOP) health care spending is an important step for ensuring the financial security of older adults. Whether or not someone has a family member providing assistance is one such factor that could be associated with OOP spending. If family caregivers facilitate better health, health care spending could be reduced. On the other hand, costs would be higher if family members facilitate more (or more costly) care for loved ones. This paper explores the relationship between caregiving arrangements and OOP spending using data from 5045 individuals in the 2000-2016 Health and Retirement Study with Medicare coverage and caregiving needs. We do not find a relationship between family caregiving and OOP health care costs, overall. However, among those with Medicare HMO insurance, having a family caregiver is associated with more spending than having no helper. This is mainly due to differences in spending on prescription medications.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults

Background

Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland.

Methods

We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health – Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982).

Results

Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026.

Conclusions

A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

Association Between Dynamic Trends of Functional Disability and Poverty Among People Aged 45 and Over

Background

The disability problem has become prominent with the acceleration of the global aging process. Individual disability is associated with economic conditions and contributes to family poverty. As disability will change over a long period of time and may even show distinct dynamic trends, we aimed to focus on activities of daily living (ADL) and classify functional disability trends. Moreover, we aimed to highlight and analyze the association between functional disability trends and economic conditions and explore the influencing factors.

Materials and Methods

A total of 11,222 individuals who were 45 years old or older were included in four surveys conducted by the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018. Samples were analyzed after excluding those with missing key variables. The latent class growth model was used to classify the ADL trends. Two binary logistic regressions were established to observe the association between the ADL trends and follow-up economic conditions or catastrophic health expenditure trends.

Results

ADL trends of older adults were classified into improving (25.4%), stabilizing (57.0%), and weakening ADL (17.6%). ADL trend was associated with follow-up poverty (p = 0.002) and catastrophic health expenditure trends (p < 0.001). Compared with the improving ADL trend, the stabilizing ADL may have a negative influence on individuals' economic conditions (OR = 1.175, 95%CI = 1.060–1.303). However, a stabilizing ADL trend was less likely to bring about catastrophic health expenditures (OR = 0.746, 95%CI = 0.678–0.820) compared with an improving ADL trend.

Conclusion

The improvement of functional disability would make the medical expense burden heavier but would still be beneficial for the prevention of poverty. A significant association was found between socioeconomic factors and poverty. Preventing the older adults from developing disability and illness, improving the compensation level of medical insurance, and optimizing the long-term care insurance and the primary healthcare system can potentially contribute to the prevention of poverty. Meanwhile, focusing on people who are poor at early stages, women, middle-aged, low-educated, and in rural areas is important.

Methodological guidelines to estimate population-based health indicators using linked data and/or machine learning techniques

BACKGROUND

The capacity to use data linkage and artificial intelligence to estimate and predict health indicators varies across European countries. However, the estimation of health indicators from linked administrative data is challenging due to several reasons such as variability in data sources and data collection methods resulting in reduced interoperability at various levels and timeliness, availability of a large number of variables, lack of skills and capacity to link and analyze big data. The main objective of this study is to develop the methodological guidelines calculating population-based health indicators to guide European countries using linked data and/or machine learning (ML) techniques with new methods.

METHOD

We have performed the following step-wise approach systematically to develop the methodological guidelines: i. Scientific literature review, ii. Identification of inspiring examples from European countries, and iii. Developing the checklist of guidelines contents.

RESULTS

We have developed the methodological guidelines, which provide a systematic approach for studies using linked data and/or ML-techniques to produce population-based health indicators. These guidelines include a detailed checklist of the following items: rationale and objective of the study (i.e., research question), study design, linked data sources, study population/sample size, study outcomes, data preparation, data analysis (i.e., statistical techniques, sensitivity analysis and potential issues during data analysis) and study limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to develop the methodological guidelines for studies focused on population health using linked data and/or machine learning techniques. These guidelines would support researchers to adopt and develop a systematic approach for high-quality research methods. There is a need for high-quality research methodologies using more linked data and ML-techniques to develop a structured cross-disciplinary approach for improving the population health information and thereby the population health.

Validity of the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) to evaluate severity of disability

Our aim was to estimate the validity of the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) when measuring the severity level of disability. Data came from 153 residents of Spain, who requested an evaluation of their degree of disability. We compared disability classifications (severe vs. non-severe) from GALI against those from the 36-item questionnaire WHODAS 2.0, the current gold standard measure of disability. The sensitivity of GALI to detect severe disability was 58.3% [95% confidence interval (CI):43.2-72.4], and the specificity was 84.8% (95% CI: 76.4-91.0). Thus, the validity of GALI to accurately categorize the degree of severity of an individual's disability is not high, this in great part due to its limited sensitivity.

Cardiometabolic diseases, frailty, and healthcare utilization and expenditure in community-dwelling Chinese older adults

This study investigated associations between cardiometabolic diseases, frailty, and healthcare utilization and expenditure among Chinese older adults. The participants were 5204 community-dwelling adults aged at least 60 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Five cardiometabolic diseases were assessed including hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, cardiac diseases and stroke. Frailty status was based on five criteria: slowness, weakness, exhaustion, inactivity, and shrinking. Participants were deemed frailty if they met at least three criteria. As the number of cardiometabolic diseases increased, so did the prevalence of frailty, and the proportion of healthcare utilization, including outpatient visit and inpatient visit. Moreover, the total healthcare expenditure and the odds of catastrophic health expenditure were increased with the number of cardiometabolic disorders. After adjusting for covariates, cardiometabolic diseases were positively associated with higher odds of frailty, incurring outpatient and inpatient visit. And individuals with 2 or more cardiometabolic diseases had a higher odds of catastrophic health expenditure than persons with non-cardiometabolic disease. Participants who were frailty were more likely to report higher odds of healthcare utilization. These findings suggest that both cardiometabolic diseases and frailty assessment may improve identification of older adults likely to require costly, extensive healthcare.

The Perceived Health Status from Young Adults to Elderly: Results of the MEHM Questionnaire within the CUORE Project Survey 2008-2012

Improving healthy life years requires an effective understanding and management of the process of healthy ageing. Assessing the perceived health status and its determinants is a relevant step in this process. This study explored the potentialities of the Minimum European Health Module (MEHM) to cope with this critical issue. Investigation was conducted on 4798 Italian residents (49.7% women, aged 35-79 years), participating in the CUORE Project Health Examination Survey 2008-2012. The three MEHM questions-perceived health status, chronic morbidity and activity limitations-were examined also in association with living context, seasonality, marital status and level of education. A higher prevalence of health status negative perception was associated with older age (9% and 24% respectively in men and women aged 35-44 years; 46% and 61% respectively in men and women aged 75-79 years). In women, this negative perception was higher than in men in any age group, and reached 50% in the 65-69 age group, 10 years earlier than in men. For both sexes, the level of education had a strong impact on this negative perception (odds ratio 2.32 and 2.72 in men and women respectively), while "living alone" played a greater impact in women than in men. MEHM activity limitations subscale was as much as 30% higher for questionnaires answered during the hottest months. This study identified potential predictors of perceived health status in adults aged 35-79 years, which can be used to target interventions aimed at improving self-perceived health status.

Longitudinal associations of multimorbidity, disability and out-of-pocket health expenditures in households with older adults in Mexico: The study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE)

BACKGROUND

Empirical evidence suggests that multimorbidity and disability are each significantly associated with out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures; however few efforts have been made to explore their joint association with OOP health expenditures.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the association of multimorbidity and disability with OOP health expenditures in households with older adults in Mexico, as well as the potential interaction effects of multimorbidity and disability on OOP health expenditures.

METHODS

Longitudinal study based on data collected as part of the Study on global AGEing and adult health Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2014), a nationally representative study in Mexico with a sample of older adults aged 50 and older. The dependent variable was OOP health expenditures, and main exposure variables were multimorbidity and disability. Two-Part regression models were used to analyze the relation between multimorbidity, disability and OOP health expenditures.

RESULTS

Multimorbidity was associated with the probability of incurring OOP health expenditures (OR = 1.28, CI_95% 1.11-1.48), and also the tertiles of disability (2nd tertile: OR = 1.45, CI_95% 1.23-1.70; 3rd tertile: OR = 2.19, CI_95% 1.81-2.66). The presence of multimorbidity was associated with an increase of 13% in average OOP health costs (β = 0.13, CI_95% 0.01-0.25), and 16% for the 3rd tertile of disability (β = 0.16, CI_95% 0.01-0.31). We did not find significant interaction effects of multimorbidity and disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity and disability appear to be important determinants of OOP health expenditures. The economic implications for the households and the health system should be highlighted, particularly in low- and middle-income countries because of the rapid growth of their aging populations.

Estimating the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and thyroid disorders using medication data in Flanders, Belgium

Background

Various methods exist to estimate disease prevalences. The aim of this study was to determine whether dispensed, self-reported and prescribed medication data could be used to estimate the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and thyroid disorders. Second, these pharmaco-epidemiological estimates were compared with prevalences based on self-reported diagnoses and doctor-registered diagnoses.

Methods

Data on medication for diabetes and thyroid disorders were obtained from three different sources in Flanders (Belgium) for 2008: a purely administrative database containing data on dispensed medication, the Belgian National Health Interview Survey for self-reported medication and diagnoses, and a patient record database for prescribed medication and doctor-registered diagnoses. Prevalences were estimated based on medication data and compared with each other. Cross-tabulations of dispensed medication and self-reported diagnoses, and prescribed medication and doctor-registered diagnoses, were investigated.

Results

Prevalences based on dispensed medication were the highest (4.39 and 2.98% for diabetes and thyroid disorders, respectively). The lowest prevalences were found using prescribed medication (2.39 and 1.72%, respectively). Cross-tabulating dispensed medication and self-reported diagnoses yielded a moderate to high sensitivity for diabetes (90.4%) and thyroid disorders (77.5%), while prescribed medication showed a low sensitivity for doctor-registered diagnoses (56.5 and 43.6%, respectively). The specificity remained above 99% in all cases.

Conclusions

This study was the first to perform cross-tabulations for disease prevalence estimates between different databases and within (sub)populations. Purely administrative database was shown to be a reliable source to estimate disease prevalence based on dispensed medication. Prevalence estimates based on prescribed or self-reported medication were shown to have important limitations.

Machine learning approaches for predicting high cost high need patient expenditures in health care

BACKGROUND

This paper studies the temporal consistency of health care expenditures in a large state Medicaid program. Predictive machine learning models were used to forecast the expenditures, especially for the high-cost, high-need (HCHN) patients.

RESULTS

We systematically tests temporal correlation of patient-level health care expenditures in both the short and long terms. The results suggest that medical expenditures are significantly correlated over multiple periods. Our work demonstrates a prevalent and strong temporal correlation and shows promise for predicting future health care expenditures using machine learning. Temporal correlation is stronger in HCHN patients and their expenditures can be better predicted. Including more past periods is beneficial for better predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that there is significant temporal correlation in health care expenditures. Machine learning models can help to accurately forecast the expenditures. These results could advance the field toward precise preventive care to lower overall health care costs and deliver care more efficiently.

Measuring disability: a systematic review of the validity and reliability of the Global Activity Limitations Indicator (GALI)

Background

GALI or Global Activity Limitation Indicator is a global survey instrument measuring participation restriction. GALI is the measure underlying the European indicator Healthy Life Years (HLY). Gali has a substantial policy use within the EU and its Member States. The objective of current paper is to bring together what is known from published manuscripts on the validity and the reliability of GALI.

Methods

Following the PRISMA guidelines, two search strategies (PUBMED, Google Scholar) were combined to identify manuscripts published in English with publication date 2000 or beyond. Articles were classified as reliability studies, concurrent or predictive validity studies, in national or international populations.

Results

Four cross-sectional studies (of which 2 international) studied how GALI relates to other health measures (concurrent validity). A dose-response effect by GALI severity level on the association with the other health status measures was observed in the national studies. The 2 international studies (SHARE, EHIS) concluded that the odds of reporting participation restriction was higher in subjects with self-reported or observed functional limitations. In SHARE, the size of the Odds Ratio’s (ORs) in the different countries was homogeneous, while in EHIS the size of the ORs varied more strongly. For the predictive validity, subjects were followed over time (4 studies of which one international). GALI proved, both in national and international data, to be a consistent predictor of future health outcomes both in terms of mortality and health care expenditure. As predictors of mortality, the two distinct health concepts, self-rated health and GALI, acted independently and complementary of each other. The one reliability study identified reported a sufficient reliability of GALI.

Conclusion

GALI as inclusive one question instrument fits all conceptual characteristics specified for a global measure on participation restriction. In none of the studies, included in the review, there was evidence of a failing validity. The review shows that GALI has a good and sufficient concurrent and predictive validity, and reliability.

Economic Hardship and Educational Differentials in Disability in 26 European Countries

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this article is to study to what extent European variations in differentials in disability by education level are associated to variation in poverty.

METHOD

Using the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for 26 countries, we measure the prevalence of activity limitation (AL) and the rate of economic hardship (EH) by level of education. We measure the increased AL prevalence (disadvantage) of the low-educated relative to the middle-educated and the reduced AL prevalence (advantage) of the high-educated groups, controlling or not for EH.

RESULTS

The rate of EH and the extent of the AL-advantage/disadvantage vary substantially across Europe. EH contributes to the AL-advantage/disadvantage but to different extent depending on its level across educational groups.

DISCUSSION

Associations between poverty, education, and disability are complex. In general, large EH goes along with increased disability differentials. Actions to reduce poverty are needed in Europe to reduce the levels and differentials in disability.

Impact of Question Wording on the Measurement of Activity Limitation: Evidence From a Randomized Test in France

OBJECTIVE

The Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI), a single question measuring disability, had been introduced in various European surveys since 2004. The complexity of its wording has been questioned. Our study compares alternative variants aiming to simplify the wording.

METHOD

We used the Health-Related Opinion Survey run in 2014 in France (N = 3,009). Its split sample design allows testing four variants of the questions. We analyzed the prevalence of activity limitation (AL) resulting from the four different constructs of the GALI using multinomial logistic regressions, adjusted for background variables and functional limitations (FLs).

RESULTS

The alternative GALI variants result in significantly different prevalences compared with the original question, in particular for people with FL. The current variant is more inclusive than the routed variants.

DISCUSSION

Our study suggests limited benefits of changing the GALI construct which do not outweigh the costs of breaking the established chronological series of the current variant.

Harmonising summary measures of population health using global survey instruments

Summary measures of population health—health expectancies in particular—have become a standard for quantifying and monitoring population health. To date, cross-national comparability of health expectancies is limited, except within the European Union (EU). To advance international comparability, the European Joint Action on Healthy Life Years (JA: EHLEIS) set up an international working group. The working group discussed the conceptual basis of summary measures of population health and made suggestions for the development of comparable health expectancies to be used across the EU and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members. In this paper, which summarises the main results, we argue that harmonised health data needed for health expectancy calculation can best be obtained from ‘global’ survey measures, which provide a snapshot of the health situation using 1 or a few survey questions. We claim that 2 global measures of health should be pursued for their high policy relevance: a global measure of participation restriction and a global measure of functional limitation. We finally provide a blueprint for the future development and implementation of the 2 global measures. The blueprint sets the basis for subsequent international collaboration, having as a core group Member States of the EU, the USA and Japan. Other countries, in particular OECD members, are invited to join the initiative.

Educational differentials in disability vary across and within welfare regimes: a comparison of 26 European countries in 2009

BACKGROUND

Social differentials in disability prevalence exist in all European countries, but their scale varies markedly. To improve understanding of this variation, the article focuses on each end of the social gradient. It compares the extent of the higher disability prevalence in low social groups (referred to as disability disadvantage) and of the lower prevalence in high social groups (disability advantage); country-specific advantages/disadvantages are discussed regarding the possible influence of welfare regimes.

METHODS

Cross-sectional disability prevalence is measured by longstanding health-related activity limitation (AL) in the 2009 European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) across 26 countries classified into four welfare regime groups. Logistic models adjusted by country, age and sex (in all 30-79 years and in three age-bands) measured the country-specific ORs across education, representing the AL-disadvantage of low-educated and AL-advantage of high-educated groups relative to middle-educated groups.

RESULTS

The relative AL-disadvantage of the low-educated groups was small in Sweden (eg, 1.2 (1.0-1.4)), Finland, Romania, Bulgaria and Spain (youngest age-band), but was large in the Czech Republic (eg, 1.9 (1.7-2.2)), Denmark, Belgium, Italy and Hungary. The high-educated groups had a small relative AL-advantage in Denmark (eg, 0.9 (0.8-1.1)), but a large AL-advantage in Lithuania (eg, 0.5 (0.4-0.6)), half of the Baltic and Eastern European countries, Norway and Germany (youngest age-band). There were notable differences within welfare regime groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The country-specific disability advantages/disadvantages across educational groups identified here could help to identify determining factors and the efficiency of national policies implemented to tackle social differentials in health.