Modelling stunting in LiST: the effect of applying smoothing to linear growth data

The Potential Contribution of the Health System to Reducing Stunting in SUN Countries

BACKGROUND

The global nutrition community has called for a multisectoral approach to improve nutritional outcomes. While most essential nutrition interventions are delivered through the health system, nutrition-sensitive interventions from other sectors are critical.

OBJECTIVE

We modeled the potential impact that Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) interventions delivered by the health system would have on reaching World Health Assembly (WHA) stunting targets. We also included results for targets 2, 3, and 5.

METHODS

Using all available countries enrolled in the SUN movement, we identified nutrition interventions that are delivered by the health system available in the Lives Saved Tool. We then scaled these interventions linearly from 2012 up to nearly universal coverage (90%) in 2025 and estimated the potential impact that this increase would have with regard to the WHA targets.

RESULTS

Our results show that only 16 countries out of 56 would reach the 40% reduction in the number of stunted children by 2025, with a combined total reduction of 32% across all countries. Similarly, only 2 countries would achieve the 50% reduction in anemia for women of reproductive age, 41 countries would reach at least 50% exclusive breastfeeding in children under 6 months of age, and 0 countries would reach the 30% reduction in low birth weight.

CONCLUSIONS

While the health system has an important role to play in the delivery of health interventions, focusing investments and efforts on the health system alone will not allow countries to reach the WHA targets by 2025. Concerted efforts across multiple sectors are necessary.

Stunting at birth and associated factors among newborns delivered at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Referral Hospital

Background

Stunting at birth is a chronic form of undernutrition majorly attributable to poor prenatal nutrition, which could persist in children’s later life and impact their physical and cognitive health. Although multiple studies have been conducted in Ethiopia to show the magnitude of stunting and factors, all are concentrated on children aged between 6 to 59 months. Therefore, this study was done to determine the prevalence and associated factors of stunting at birth among newborns delivered at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Referral Hospital, Northwest, Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from February 26^th to April 25^th/2020. A systematic random sampling technique was used, to select a total of 422 newborn-mother pairs. The binary logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with stunting and all independent variables were entered into the multivariable logistic regression model to adjust for confounders. Variables that had significant association were identified based on p-value < 0.05 and the adjusted odds ratio with its respective 95% confidence interval was applied to determine the strength as well as the direction of the association.

Results

About 30.5% (95% CI: 26.3%, 35.1%) of newborns were stunted at birth. Being male [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.9(1.62, 5.21)], newborns conceived in Kiremt(rainy season) [AOR = 2.7(1.49, 4.97)], being low birth weight [AOR = 3.1(1.64, 6.06)] were factors associated with stunting at birth. Likewise, newborns born to short stature mothers [AOR = 2.8(1.21, 6.62)] and chronically malnourished mothers [AOR = 15.3(8.12, 29.1)] were at greater risk of being stunted.

Conclusion

Just under a third of newborns are stunted at birth, implying a pressing public health problem. Newborns born to chronically malnourished and short stature mothers were more stunted. Besides, stunting was prevalently observed among male neonates, newborns conceived in Kiremet, and being low birth weight. Thus, policymakers and nutrition programmers should work on preventing maternal undernutrition through nutrition education to reduce the burden of low birth weight and stunting. Further, paying due attention to newborns conceived in Kiremet season to improve nutritional status is recommended.

The Stunting Tool for Early Prevention: development and external validation of a novel tool to predict risk of stunting in children at 3 years of age

INTRODUCTION

Globally, an estimated 151 million children under 5 years of age still suffer from the adverse effects of stunting. We sought to develop and externally validate an early life predictive model that could be applied in infancy to accurately predict risk of stunting in preschool children.

METHODS

We conducted two separate prospective cohort studies in Vietnam that intensively monitored children from early pregnancy until 3 years of age. They included 1168 and 475 live-born infants for model development and validation, respectively. Logistic regression on child stunting at 3 years of age was performed for model development, and the predicted probabilities for stunting were used to evaluate the performance of this model in the validation data set.

RESULTS

Stunting prevalence was 16.9% (172 of 1015) in the development data set and 16.4% (70 of 426) in the validation data set. Key predictors included in the final model were paternal and maternal height, maternal weekly weight gain during pregnancy, infant sex, gestational age at birth, and infant weight and length at 6 months of age. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the validation data set was 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.80-0.90).

CONCLUSION

This tool applied to infants at 6 months of age provided valid prediction of risk of stunting at 3 years of age using a readily available set of parental and infant measures. Further research is required to examine the impact of preventive measures introduced at 6 months of age on those identified as being at risk of growth faltering at 3 years of age.