The burden of non-communicable diseases and their related risk factors in the country of Georgia, 2015

Machine learning models for prediction of double and triple burdens of non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh

Increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has become the leading cause of death and disability in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study aimed to measure the prevalence of and risk factors for double and triple burden of NCDs (DBNCDs and TBNCDs), considering diabetes, hypertension, and overweight and obesity as well as establish a machine learning approach for predicting DBNCDs and TBNCDs. A total of 12,151 respondents from the 2017 to 2018 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey were included in this analysis, where 10%, 27.4%, and 24.3% of respondents had diabetes, hypertension, and overweight and obesity, respectively. Chi-square test and multilevel logistic regression (LR) analysis were applied to select factors associated with DBNCDs and TBNCDs. Furthermore, six classifiers including decision tree (DT), LR, naïve Bayes (NB), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with three cross-validation protocols (K2, K5, and K10) were adopted to predict the status of DBNCDs and TBNCDs. The classification accuracy (ACC) and area under the curve (AUC) were computed for each protocol and repeated 10 times to make them more robust, and then the average ACC and AUC were computed. The prevalence of DBNCDs and TBNCDs was 14.3% and 2.3%, respectively. The findings of this study revealed that DBNCDs and TBNCDs were significantly influenced by age, sex, marital status, wealth index, education and geographic region. Compared to other classifiers, the RF-based classifier provides the highest ACC and AUC for both DBNCDs (ACC = 81.06% and AUC = 0.93) and TBNCDs (ACC = 88.61% and AUC = 0.97) for the K10 protocol. A combination of considered two-step factor selections and RF-based classifier can better predict the burden of NCDs. The findings of this study suggested that decision-makers might adopt suitable decisions to control and prevent the burden of NCDs using RF classifiers.

Standardized Criteria to Initiate External Ventricular Drain (EVD) Weaning in a Neurological Intensive Care Unit to Increase the Safety of EVD Discontinuation and Reduce the Need for a Shunt

Introduction Patients with subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAH) with external ventricular drains (EVD) can develop chronic hydrocephalus (HCP), requiring permanent cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion via an external shunt. Two different strategies have been used to assess for dependence on EVD: 1) prompt closure, and 2) gradual weaning. Gradual weaning of EVDs is performed by increasing drainage resistance to outflow over days. However, when to start one strategy or the other is up to the physician. No uniform guidelines exist raising a question: Are standardized criteria necessary to initiate the EVD weaning process for SAH patients to increase the safety of EVD discontinuation and reduce the need for a shunt? This study shares criteria used to initiate EVD weaning that displayed increased safety of EVD discontinuation for patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage requiring EVD, particularly with regards to length of hospital stay (LOS), hospital-acquired infection rates, and ventriculoperitoneal shunt/endoscopic third ventriculostomy (VPS/ETV) placement. Methods One hundred and fifty-one SAH patients from January 2016 to January 2019 were analyzed. 60 aneurysmal SAH (aSAH) and 18 non-aneurysmal nontraumatic SAH (naSAH) patients required EVD placement. A gradual EVD weaning protocol was initiated if patients met the following criteria: 1. The reason for EVD placement has resolved or is resolving, 2. The quantity of CSF output is <250mL over 24 hours, 3. Quality of CSF is nonbloody, 4. Intracranial Pressure (ICP) must be within normal limits, and 5. The patient must be neurologically stable. It was acceptable to initiate the weaning process when the patient had mild cerebral vasospasm, but not moderate to severe cerebral vasospasm. EVD weaning was performed by increasing the drain (chamber) height by 5 millimeters of mercury every 24 hours if the criteria were met. Charts were reviewed for LOS, infection rates, and rate of VPS/ETV. Gender, age, race, wean failure incidence, Hunt-Hess scores, modified Fisher scores, and syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone/cerebral salt wasting (SIADH/CSW) rates were obtained. Results The average LOS for aSAH patients with EVD was 20.35 days. The incidence of VPS/ETV was 11%. A chi-square analysis revealed that aSAH patients had higher rates of VPS/ETV placement (p<0.001) and EVD wean failures (p<0.001) than naSAH patients. aSAH patients had a lower incidence of VPS/ETV placement of 11% compared to 21% nationally. Conclusions Standardized criteria to initiate EVD weaning provided a reduction in VPS/ETV placement among aSAH patients compared to national averages and provided a uniform approach to EVD management. Comparable infection rates and LOS for SAH patients requiring EVDs compared to national averages were found.

Patterns and trends of in-hospital mortality due to non-communicable diseases and injuries in Tanzania, 2006-2015

BACKGROUND

Globally, non-communicable diseases (NCD) kill about 40 million people annually, with about three-quarters of the deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries. This study was carried out to determine the patterns, trends, and causes of in-hospital non-communicable disease (NCD) and injury deaths in Tanzania from 2006-2015.

METHODS

This retrospective study involved primary, secondary, tertiary, and specialized hospitals. Death statistics were extracted from inpatient department registers, death registers, and International Classification of Diseases (ICD) report forms. The ICD-10 coding system was used to assign each death to its underlying cause. The analysis determined leading causes by age, sex, annual trend and calculate hospital-based mortality rates.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine hospitals were involved in this study. A total of 247,976 deaths (all causes) were reported during the 10-year period. Of the total deaths, 67,711 (27.3%) were due to NCD and injuries. The most (53.4%) affected age group was 15-59 years. Cardio-circulatory diseases (31.9%), cancers (18.6%), chronic respiratory diseases (18.4%), and injuries (17.9%) accounted for the largest proportion (86.8%) of NCD and injuries deaths. The overall 10-year hospital-based age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for all NCDs and injuries was 559.9 per 100,000 population. It was higher for males (638.8/100,000) than for females (444.6/100,000). The hospital-based annual ASMR significantly increased from 11.0 in 2006 to 62.8 per 100,000 populations in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a substantial increase in hospital-based ASMR due to NCDs and injuries in Tanzania from 2006 to 2015. Most of the deaths affected the productive young adult group. This burden indicates that families, communities, and the nation at large suffer from premature deaths. The government of Tanzania should invest in early detection and timely management of NCDs and injuries to reduce premature deaths. This should go hand-in-hand with continuous efforts to improve the quality of health data and its utilization.

Readiness of the primary health care units and associated factors for the management of hypertension and type II diabetes mellitus in Sidama, Ethiopia

Background

In low-income nations such as Ethiopia, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are becoming more common. The Ethiopian Ministry of Health has prioritized NCD prevention, early diagnosis, and management. However, research on the readiness of public health facilities to address NCDs, particularly hypertension and type II diabetes mellitus, is limited.

Methods

The study used a multistage cluster sampling method and a health facility-based cross-sectional study design. A total of 83 health facilities were evaluated based on WHO's Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) tool to investigate the availability of services and the readiness of the primary health care unit (PHCU) to manage type II diabetes and Hypertension. Trained data collectors interviewed with PHCU head or NCD focal persons. The study tried to investigate (1) the availability of basic amenities and the four domains: staff and guidelines, basic equipment, diagnostic materials, and essential medicines used to manage DM and HPN, (2) the readiness of the PHCU to manage DM and HPN. The data were processed by using SPSS version 24. Descriptive statistics, including frequency and percentage, inferential statistics like the chi-square test, and logistic regression models were used to analyze the data.

Results

Of the 82 health facilities, only 29% and 28% of the PHCU identified as ready to manage HPN and DM. Facility type, facility location, presence of guidelines, trained staff, groups of antihypertensive and antidiabetic medicines had a significant impact (P < 0.05) on the readiness of the PHCU to manage HPN and DM at a 0.05 level of significance. Facilities located in urban were 8.2 times more likely to be ready to manage HPN cases than facilities located in rural (AOR = 8.2, 95% CI [2.4-28.5]) and P < 0.05.

Conclusion and recommendation

The results identified comparatively poor and deprived readiness to offer HPN and DM services at lower-level health facilities(health centers). Equipping the lower-level health facilities with screening and diagnostic materials, essential medicines, and provision of basic training for the health care providers and NCD guidelines should be available, especially in the lower health care facilities.

The Ten-Year Risk Prediction for Cardiovascular Disease for Malaysian Adults Using the Laboratory-Based and Office-Based (Globorisk) Prediction Model

Background and Objectives: Globorisk is a well-validated risk prediction model that predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the national population of all countries. We aim to apply the Globorisk calculator and provide the overall, sex-specific, ethnic-specific, region-specific, and state-specific 10-year risk for CVD among Malaysian adults. Materials and Methods: Using Malaysia’s risk factor levels and CVD event rates, we calculated the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores to predict the 10-year risk for fatal CVD and fatal plus non-fatal CVD for the Malaysian adult population. We analysed data from 8253 participants from the 2015 nationwide Malaysian National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS 2015). The average risk for the 10-year fatal and fatal plus non-fatal CVD was calculated, and participants were further grouped into four categories: low risk (<10% risk for CVD), high risk A (≥10%), high risk B (≥20%), and high risk C (≥30%). Results: Results were reported for all participants and were then stratified by sex, ethnicity, region, and state. The average risks for laboratory-based fatal CVD, laboratory-based fatal plus non-fatal CVD, and office-based fatal plus non-fatal CVD were 0.07 (SD = 0.10), 0.14 (SD = 0.12), and 0.11 (SD = 0.09), respectively. Conclusions: There were substantial differences in terms of the sex-, ethnicity- and state-specific Globorisk risk scores obtained.

Malnutrition in all its forms and associated factors affecting the nutritional status of adult rural population in Bangladesh: results from a cross-sectional survey

INTRODUCTION

The burden of malnutrition is widely evaluated in Bangladesh in different contexts. However, most of them determine the influence of sociodemographic factors, which have limited scope for modification and design intervention. This study attempted to determine the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity and their modifiable lifestyle predictors in a rural population of Bangladesh.

METHODS

This study was part of a cross-sectional study that applied the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions in a rural area of Bangladesh to assess the burden of diabetes, hypertension and their associated risk factors. Census was used as the sampling technique. Anthropometric measurement and data on sociodemographic characteristics and behavioural risk factors were collected following the standard protocol described in the WHO STEP-wise approach. Analysis included means of continuous variables and multinomial regression of factors.

RESULTS

The mean body mass index of the study population was 21.9 kg/m². About 20.9% were underweight, 16.4% were overweight and 3.5% were obese. Underweight was most predominant among people above 60 years, while overweight and obesity were predominant among people between 31 and 40 years. Higher overweight and obesity were noted among women. Employment, consumption of added salt and inactivity increased the odds of being underweight by 0.32, 0.33 and 0.14, respectively. On the other hand, the odds of being overweight or obese increased by 0.58, 0.55, 0.78, 0.21 and 0.25 if a respondent was female, literate, married, housewife and consumed red meat, and decreased by 0.38 and 0.18 if a respondent consumed added salt and inadequate amounts of fruits and vegetables, respectively. Consumption of added salt decreases the odds of being overweight or obese by 0.37.

CONCLUSION

The study emphasised malnutrition to be a public health concern in spite of the dynamic sociodemographic scenario. Specific health messages for targeted population may help improve the nutritional status. Findings from further explorations may support policies and programmes in the future.

Double and triple burden of non-communicable diseases and its determinants among adults in Bangladesh: Evidence from a recent demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Globally, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a significant public health problem. NCDs are the leading cause of death in Bangladesh. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of double burden of NCDs (DBNCDs) and triple burden of NCDs (TBNCDs) such as hypertension, diabetes and overweight or obesity and to explore the risk factors of DBNCDs and TBNCDs in Bangladesh.

MATERAILS AND METHODS

This study included 12 685 participants (5465 male and 7220 female) from 2017 - 2018 nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the distribution and prevalence of DBNCDs and TBNCDs. Bivariate and multilevel logistic regression analyses were used to assess the individual- and community-level determinants of DBNCDs and TBNCDs.

RESULTS

The prevalence of DBNCDs and TBNCDs was 21.4% and 6.1%, respectively. At individual-level, higher age, female, currently and formerly/ever married, richest, higher education were more likely to suffer from the DBNCDs and TBNCDs. Furthermore, at the community level, the division had a significant association with DBNCDs and TBNCDs. In addition, family size had a significant effect on DBNCDs, and caffeinate drinks and poverty significantly affected TBNCDs.

CONCLUSION

Overall, there is a low prevalence of TBNCDs compared with DBNCDs in Bangladesh. Age, gender, marital status, wealth index, education level and division are significantly associated with DBNCDs and TBNCDs. The government and non-government health organisations should pay proper attention to handle the burden of NCDs in Bangladesh.

Quit attempts among current tobacco users attending the outpatient department of Dr Yusuf Dadoo district hospital, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Implementing effective tobacco cessation programmes requires an understanding of the factors that influence quit attempts in a given context. In this study, we explored these factors among current tobacco users attending the outpatient department (OPD) of Dr Yusuf Dadoo Hospital, South Africa.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study involving 275 tobacco users, a researcher-administered questionnaire collected socio-demographic, clinical, tobacco use and quit attempt information. Outcomes of data analysis included the proportion of participants who made quit attempts, the motivations and barriers, and the factors significantly associated with quit attempts.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 46.5 years. Most of them were black (61.8%), male (65.8%), and had at least one chronic disease (52.7%) - of which 55.2% had a cardiovascular disease. About 87% of participants smoked cigarettes while 10% used snuff. Most participants made a quit attempt in the past year (74%), perceived it important to quit (92.0%) and felt confident to do so (75.0%). Health concern was the most common motivation for making a quit attempt, while advice from a healthcare provider was the least. Stress and cravings were the top two barriers to make a quit attempt. In regression analysis, being married was the only factor independently associated with making a quit attempt (odds ratio [OR]: 2.13; confidence interval [CI]: 1.17-3.86, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Most participants showed readiness to quit. However, healthcare professionals failed to leverage on participants' motivations about their health to scale up the provision of quit advice to promote smoking cessation.

Decomposition of Gender Differences in Body Mass Index in Saudi Arabia using Unconditional Quantile Regression: Analysis of National-Level Survey Data

Understanding gender differences in body mass index (BMI) between males and females has been much debated and received considerable attention. This study aims to decompose gender differentials in the BMI of people of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The study decomposed the BMI gender gap into its associated factors across the entire BMI distribution by using counterfactual regression methods. The main method of analysis was newly developed unconditional quantile regression-based decomposition, which applied Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition using data from the Saudi Health Interview Survey. Gender differentials were found in the BMI, with females showing a higher BMI than males. The aggregate decomposition showed that both the covariate effect and the structural effect were significant at the 25th and 50th quantiles. Detailed decomposition indicated that income level and employment status as well as soda consumption and the consumption of red meat were significantly correlated in explaining gender differentials in BMI across various quantiles, but the magnitude varied by quantile. Our study suggests the government should consider introducing programs that specifically target women to help them reduce BMI. These programs could include organizing sporting events at the workplace and at the national level. Furthermore, the effect of soda consumption could be reduced by levying a tax on beverages, which might reduce the demand for soda due to the increased price.

Cigarette Affordability and Cigarette Consumption among Adult and Elderly Chinese Smokers: Evidence from A Longitudinal Study

China is in the midst of an epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which has increasingly accounted for a growing share of disease burden, due in part to China's ongoing rapid socioeconomic changes and population aging. Smoking, the second leading health risk factors associated with NCDs in China, disproportionately affects the old population more than their younger counterparts. Using survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this study evaluated the impact of changes in cigarette affordability on smoking behavior among middle-aged and elderly (age 45 and older) smokers. Self-reported cigarette price and disposable income were used to calculate cigarette affordability. Cigarette consumption was measured using the number of cigarettes smoked per day reported by the survey respondents. The correlation between cigarette affordability and cigarette consumption was estimated using generalized estimating equations adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic status, geolocations, and cigarette price tiers, as well as year fixed effects. The estimated overall conditional cigarette affordability elasticity of demand was -0.165, implying a 10% decrease in cigarette affordability would result in a reduction in cigarette consumption by 1.65%. The cigarette affordability responsiveness differs by demographics, socioeconomic status, geolocations, and cigarette price tiers. This study provides evidence that tax/price policies that reduce cigarette affordability could lead to a decrease in cigarette consumption among middle-aged and elderly smokers in China. Smoke-free laws, as well as minimum price regulations, may be needed to compliment excise tax policy to target specific smoking subgroups whose cigarette consumption is less sensitive to changes in cigarette affordability.