Predictive models for personalized asthma attacks based on patient's biosignals and environmental factors: a systematic review

Applications of machine learning approaches for pediatric asthma exacerbation management: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Pediatric asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease worldwide, and its acute exacerbation events significantly impact children's health and quality of life. Machine learning, an advanced data analysis technique, has shown great potential in healthcare applications in recent years. This systematic review aims to assess the application of ML techniques in pediatric asthma exacerbation and explore their effectiveness and potential value.

METHODS

Studies from four electronic databases, including PubMed, EBSCO, Elsevier, and Web of Science, from Jan 2000 to Jan 2025, were searched. Studies applying the ML methods for pediatric asthma exacerbation and published in English were eligible. The risk of bias and applicability of the included studies was assessed using the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) quality assessment tool.

RESULTS

A total of 23 studies were selected for inclusion in this review, covering different ML models such as decision trees, neural networks, and support vector machines. These studies focused on analyzing risk factors for asthma exacerbation, diagnosing and predicting, optimizing and allocating healthcare resources, and comprehensive asthma management. The results show that ML techniques have significant advantages in the application of pediatric asthma exacerbation and in the provision of personalized health care.

CONCLUSIONS

ML techniques show great promise for application in pediatric asthma exacerbations. With further research and clinical validation, these techniques are expected to provide strong support for diagnosis, personalized treatment, and long-term management of pediatric asthma exacerbation.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not applicable, Prospero registration number CRD42024559232.

Digital markers of asthma exacerbations: a systematic review

Background and objective

With the increase in use of digital technologies, there is growing interest in digital markers, where technology is used to detect early markers of disease deterioration. The aim of this systematic review is to summarise the evidence relating to digital markers of asthma exacerbations.

Methods

A systematic search of the following databases was conducted, using key search terms relating to asthma, digital and exacerbations: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Psycinfo, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Studies that aimed to explore the relationship between any digitally measured marker and asthma exacerbations using any form of portable digital sensor technology were included.

Results

23 papers were included. The digital markers related to five key categories: environmental, physiological, medication, lung function and breath-related parameters. The most commonly studied marker was lung function, which was reported in over half (13 out of 23) of the papers. However, studies were conflicting in terms of the use of lung function parameters as a predictor of asthma exacerbations. Medication parameters were measured in over a third of the studies (10 out of 23) with a focus on short-acting β-agonist (SABA) use as a marker of exacerbations. Only four and two studies measured heart rate and cough, respectively; however, both parameters were positively associated with exacerbations in all reported studies.

Conclusion

Several digital markers are associated with asthma exacerbations. This suggests a potential role for using parameters such as heart rate, SABA use and, potentially, cough as digital markers of asthma exacerbations.

Perceptions Toward Using Artificial Intelligence and Technology for Asthma Attack Risk Prediction: Qualitative Exploration of Māori Views

BACKGROUND

Asthma is a significant global health issue, impacting over 500,000 individuals in New Zealand and disproportionately affecting Māori communities in New Zealand, who experience worse asthma symptoms and attacks. Digital technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models, are increasingly popular for asthma risk prediction. However, these AI models may underrepresent minority ethnic groups and introduce bias, potentially exacerbating disparities.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the views and perceptions that Māori have toward using AI and ML technologies for asthma self-management, identify key considerations for developing asthma attack risk prediction models, and ensure Māori are represented in ML models without worsening existing health inequities.

METHODS

Semistructured interviews were conducted with 20 Māori participants with asthma, 3 male and 17 female, aged 18-76 years. All the interviews were conducted one-on-one, except for 1 interview, which was conducted with 2 participants. Altogether, 10 web-based interviews were conducted, while the rest were kanohi ki te kanohi (face-to-face). A thematic analysis was conducted to identify the themes. Further, sentiment analysis was carried out to identify the sentiments using a pretrained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers model.

RESULTS

We identified four key themes: (1) concerns about AI use, (2) interest in using technology to support asthma, (3) desired characteristics of AI-based systems, and (4) experience with asthma management and opportunities for technology to improve care. AI was relatively unfamiliar to many participants, and some of them expressed concerns about whether AI technology could be trusted, kanohi ki te kanohi interaction, and inadequate knowledge of AI and technology. These concerns are exacerbated by the Māori experience of colonization. Most of the participants were interested in using technology to support their asthma management, and we gained insights into user preferences regarding computer-based health care applications. Participants discussed their experiences, highlighting problems with health care quality and limited access to resources. They also mentioned the factors that trigger their asthma control level.

CONCLUSIONS

The exploration revealed that there is a need for greater information about AI and technology for Māori communities and a need to address trust issues relating to the use of technology. Expectations in relation to computer-based applications for health purposes were expressed. The research outcomes will inform future investigations on AI and technology to enhance the health of people with asthma, in particular those designed for Indigenous populations in New Zealand.

DIGIPREDICT: physiological, behavioural and environmental predictors of asthma attacks-a prospective observational study using digital markers and artificial intelligence-study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Asthma attacks are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality but are preventable in most if detected and treated promptly. However, the changes that occur physiologically and behaviourally in the days and weeks preceding an attack are not always recognised, highlighting a potential role for technology. The aim of this study 'DIGIPREDICT' is to identify early digital markers of asthma attacks using sensors embedded in smart devices including watches and inhalers, and leverage health and environmental datasets and artificial intelligence, to develop a risk prediction model to provide an early, personalised warning of asthma attacks.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A prospective sample of 300 people, 12 years or older, with a history of a moderate or severe asthma attack in the last 12 months will be recruited in New Zealand. Each participant will be given a smart watch (to assess physiological measures such as heart and respiratory rate), peak flow meter, smart inhaler (to assess adherence and inhalation) and a cough monitoring application to use regularly over 6 months with fortnightly questionnaires on asthma control and well-being. Data on sociodemographics, asthma control, lung function, dietary intake, medical history and technology acceptance will be collected at baseline and at 6 months. Asthma attacks will be measured by self-report and confirmed with clinical records. The collected data, along with environmental data on weather and air quality, will be analysed using machine learning to develop a risk prediction model for asthma attacks.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been obtained from the New Zealand Health and Disability Ethics Committee (2023 FULL 13541). Enrolment began in August 2023. Results will be presented at local, national and international meetings, including dissemination via community groups, and submission for publication to peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12623000764639; Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry.

Investigating Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Risk of Asthma Exacerbations: A Systematic Review

Asthma, a common chronic respiratory disease among children and adults, affects more than 200 million people worldwide and causes about 450,000 deaths each year. Machine learning is increasingly applied in healthcare to assist health practitioners in decision-making. In asthma management, machine learning excels in performing well-defined tasks, such as diagnosis, prediction, medication, and management. However, there remain uncertainties about how machine learning can be applied to predict asthma exacerbation. This study aimed to systematically review recent applications of machine learning techniques in predicting the risk of asthma attacks to assist asthma control and management. A total of 860 studies were initially identified from five databases. After the screening and full-text review, 20 studies were selected for inclusion in this review. The review considered recent studies published from January 2010 to February 2023. The 20 studies used machine learning techniques to support future asthma risk prediction by using various data sources such as clinical, medical, biological, and socio-demographic data sources, as well as environmental and meteorological data. While some studies considered prediction as a category, other studies predicted the probability of exacerbation. Only a group of studies applied prediction windows. The paper proposes a conceptual model to summarise how machine learning and available data sources can be leveraged to produce effective models for the early detection of asthma attacks. The review also generated a list of data sources that other researchers may use in similar work. Furthermore, we present opportunities for further research and the limitations of the preceding studies.

Systematic reviews of machine learning in healthcare: a literature review

INTRODUCTION

The increasing availability of data and computing power has made machine learning (ML) a viable approach to faster, more efficient healthcare delivery.

METHODS

A systematic literature review (SLR) of published SLRs evaluating ML applications in healthcare settings published between1 January 2010 and 27 March 2023 was conducted.

RESULTS

In total 220 SLRs covering 10,462 ML algorithms were reviewed. The main application of AI in medicine related to the clinical prediction and disease prognosis in oncology and neurology with the use of imaging data. Accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity were provided in 56%, 28%, and 25% SLRs respectively. Internal and external validation was reported in 53% and less than 1% of the cases respectively. The most common modeling approach was neural networks (2,454 ML algorithms), followed by support vector machine and random forest/decision trees (1,578 and 1,522 ML algorithms, respectively).

EXPERT OPINION

The review indicated considerable reporting gaps in terms of the ML's performance, both internal and external validation. Greater accessibility to healthcare data for developers can ensure the faster adoption of ML algorithms into clinical practice.

Prediction of Asthma Exacerbations in Children

Asthma exacerbations are common in asthmatic children, even among those with good disease control. Asthma attacks result in the children and their parents missing school and work days; limit the patient's social and physical activities; and lead to emergency department visits, hospital admissions, or even fatal events. Thus, the prompt identification of asthmatic children at risk for exacerbation is crucial, as it may allow for proactive measures that could prevent these episodes. Children prone to asthma exacerbation are a heterogeneous group; various demographic factors such as younger age, ethnic group, low family income, clinical parameters (history of an exacerbation in the past 12 months, poor asthma control, poor adherence to treatment, comorbidities), Th2 inflammation, and environmental exposures (pollutants, stress, viral and bacterial pathogens) determine the risk of a future exacerbation and should be carefully considered. This paper aims to review the existing evidence regarding the predictors of asthma exacerbations in children and offer practical monitoring guidance for promptly recognizing patients at risk.

Machine Learning-Based Asthma Attack Prediction Models From Routinely Collected Electronic Health Records: Systematic Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

An early warning tool to predict attacks could enhance asthma management and reduce the likelihood of serious consequences. Electronic health records (EHRs) providing access to historical data about patients with asthma coupled with machine learning (ML) provide an opportunity to develop such a tool. Several studies have developed ML-based tools to predict asthma attacks.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to critically evaluate ML-based models derived using EHRs for the prediction of asthma attacks.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and Scopus (the search period was between January 1, 2012, and January 31, 2023) for papers meeting the following inclusion criteria: (1) used EHR data as the main data source, (2) used asthma attack as the outcome, and (3) compared ML-based prediction models' performance. We excluded non-English papers and nonresearch papers, such as commentary and systematic review papers. In addition, we also excluded papers that did not provide any details about the respective ML approach and its result, including protocol papers. The selected studies were then summarized across multiple dimensions including data preprocessing methods, ML algorithms, model validation, model explainability, and model implementation.

RESULTS

Overall, 17 papers were included at the end of the selection process. There was considerable heterogeneity in how asthma attacks were defined. Of the 17 studies, 8 (47%) studies used routinely collected data both from primary care and secondary care practices together. Extreme imbalanced data was a notable issue in most studies (13/17, 76%), but only 38% (5/13) of them explicitly dealt with it in their data preprocessing pipeline. The gradient boosting-based method was the best ML method in 59% (10/17) of the studies. Of the 17 studies, 14 (82%) studies used a model explanation method to identify the most important predictors. None of the studies followed the standard reporting guidelines, and none were prospectively validated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review indicates that this research field is still underdeveloped, given the limited body of evidence, heterogeneity of methods, lack of external validation, and suboptimally reported models. We highlighted several technical challenges (class imbalance, external validation, model explanation, and adherence to reporting guidelines to aid reproducibility) that need to be addressed to make progress toward clinical adoption.

Use of feature importance statistics to accurately predict asthma attacks using machine learning: A cross-sectional cohort study of the US population

BACKGROUND

Asthma attacks are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in vulnerable populations, and identification of associations with asthma attacks is necessary to improve public awareness and the timely delivery of medical interventions.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to identify feature importance of factors associated with asthma in a representative population of US adults.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using a modern, nationally representative cohort, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES 2017-2020). All adult patients greater than 18 years of age (total of 7,922 individuals) with information on asthma attacks were included in the study. Univariable regression was used to identify significant nutritional covariates to be included in a machine learning model and feature importance was reported. The acquisition and analysis of the data were authorized by the National Center for Health Statistics Ethics Review Board.

RESULTS

7,922 patients met the inclusion criteria in this study. The machine learning model had 55 out of a total of 680 features that were found to be significant on univariate analysis (P<0.0001 used). In the XGBoost model the model had an Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (AUROC) = 0.737, Sensitivity = 0.960, NPV = 0.967. The top five highest ranked features by gain, a measure of the percentage contribution of the covariate to the overall model prediction, were Octanoic Acid intake as a Saturated Fatty Acid (SFA) (gm) (Gain = 8.8%), Eosinophil percent (Gain = 7.9%), BMXHIP-Hip Circumference (cm) (Gain = 7.2%), BMXHT-standing height (cm) (Gain = 6.2%) and HS C-Reactive Protein (mg/L) (Gain 6.1%).

CONCLUSION

Machine Learning models can additionally offer feature importance and additional statistics to help identify associations with asthma attacks.