Frequent users of emergency departments and patient flow in Alberta and Ontario, Canada: an administrative data study

Potentially Avoidable Emergency Department Utilization by Persons With Psoriatic Arthritis and Radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Greater accessibility to ambulatory services may mitigate emergency department (ED) presentations for lower acuity issues. This study examined ED utilization patterns for individuals with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (r-axSpA) in a universal access healthcare setting.

METHODS

Linked population-based administrative datasets in Alberta, Canada (fiscal years 2007/2008-2017/2018) were assessed for yearly ED visit frequency, timing, triage acuity, most responsible diagnoses, and disposition for persons with PsA and r-axSpA.

RESULTS

A total of 4984 individuals with PsA and 14,690 with r-axSpA had 53,174 and 124,037 unique ED encounters, respectively. On average, 47.6% of persons with PsA and 35.7% with r-axSpA accessed the ED annually. Low acuity encounters (triaged as less urgent or nonurgent) were common, comprising 44.2% and 50.3% of visits for PsA and r-axSpA cohorts, respectively. Infection and injury were the most common responsible diagnoses. Presentations for inflammatory arthritis were infrequent (1.2% and 2% for PsA and r-axSpA cohorts, respectively), with no significant differences by sex or urbanicity. Rural patients had nearly twice the mean number of visits per year, had a higher frequency of less acute presentations, and were admitted less often in both disease cohorts. Sex differences included differential timing of presentation to EDs, and female patients with PsA had a lower frequency of admission relative to male patients with PsA.

CONCLUSION

ED use for less urgent and nonurgent health concerns was frequent for persons with PsA and r-axSpA, particularly in rural settings. These data can inform tailored health service delivery including access solutions for persons residing in rural areas.

Using machine learning to identify frequent attendance at accident and emergency services in Lanarkshire

Background

Frequent attenders to accident and emergency (A&E) services pose complex challenges for healthcare providers, often driven by critical clinical needs. Machine learning (ML) offers potential for predictive approaches to managing frequent attendance, yet its application in this area is limited. Existing studies often focus on specific populations or models, raising concerns about generalisability. Identifying risk factors for frequent attendance and high resource use is crucial for effective prevention strategies.

Objectives

This research aims to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of ML approaches in predicting frequent A&E attendance in NHS Lanarkshire, Scotland, identify associated risk factors and compare findings with existing research to uncover commonalities and differences.

Method

Health and social care data were collected from 17,437 A&E patients in NHS Lanarkshire (2021-2022), including clinical, social and demographic information. Five classification models were tested: multinomial logistic regression (LR), random forests (RF), support vector machine (SVM) classifier, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) classifier. Models were evaluated using a confusion matrix and metrics such as precision, recall, F1 and area under the curve. Shapley values were used to identify risk factors.

Results

MLP achieved the highest F1 score (0.75), followed by k-NN, RF and SVM (0.72 each), and LR (0.70). Key health conditions and risk factors consistently predicted frequent attendance across models, with some variation highlighting dataset-specific characteristics.

Conclusions

This study underscores the utility of combining ML models to enhance prediction accuracy and identify risk factors. Findings align with existing research but reveal unique insights specific to the dataset and methodology.

[Implementing a strategy to manage frequent emergency room visits in a district of Barcelona]

Visits to hospital emergency departments by patients with multimorbidity, complex chronic conditions, and frailty are becoming an increasing challenge. A territorial strategy has been developed, based on automated preselection lists, a nurse case manager with specialized experience, and a multi-level territorial referral consensus. The feasibility of this approach has been demonstrated, with 368 alerts detected, 85% of which were well-selected. Age, frailty, home care percentage, Barthel index, and cognition were progressively aligned with levels of care/referral (primary, intermediate, and specialized) according to previously agreed criteria. In 2024, there is extensive structured technical information, an expanding role for advanced nursing, and well-established inter-level service resources. Therefore, through automated selection, a consensual territorial protocol of pathways and clinical profiles, and autonomous nursing assessments managing multi-frequent cases, it would be possible to achieve, in a proactive, simple, and scalable manner, an appropriate distribution of alerts across levels, consistent with the social and healthcare needs of the patients.

Acuity of asthma exacerbations in Alberta, Canada is increasing: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Asthma is a common respiratory illness affecting 2.8 million Canadians, including 9.7% of Albertans. Prior studies showed a substantial decrease in ED visits for asthma in the decade preceding 2010, followed by a stabilization. This was attributed to improvements in the pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic treatments for asthma during that period followed by a balance between epidemiologic drivers and protective factors in the population.

METHODS

We assessed whether this trend continued in Alberta from 2010 to 2022 using population level data for the volume of daily ED visits, acuity of asthma exacerbations in the ED, and hospitalization rate.

RESULTS

The mean number of ED visits decreased from 4.5 to 2.2 per million persons per day, but the acuity of exacerbations and the proportion requiring hospitalization increased. The number of patients presenting with the highest level of acuity increased by over 300%, and the percentage of patients requiring hospitalization increased from 6.8 to 11.3%.

CONCLUSION

Total ED visits for asthma exacerbations continues to decline in Alberta. The reasons for an increase in more severe exacerbations requires further attention.

Transitions in health care settings for frequent and infrequent users of emergency departments: a population-based retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Efforts to reduce emergency department (ED) volumes often target frequent users. We examined transitions in care across ED, hospital, and community settings, and in-hospital death, for high system users (HSUs) compared to controls.

METHODS

Population-based databases provided ED visits and hospitalizations in Alberta and Ontario, Canada. The retrospective cohort included the top 10% of all the ED users during 2015/2016 (termed HSUs) and a random sample of controls (4 per each HSU) from the bottom 90% per province. Rates of transitions among ED, hospitalization, community settings, and in-hospital mortality were adjusted for sociodemographic and ED variables in a multistate statistical model.

RESULTS

There were 2,684,924 patients and 579,230 (21.6%) were HSUs. Patient characteristics associated with shorter community to ED transition times for HSUs included Alberta residence (ratio of hazard ratio [RHR] = 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11,1.12), living in areas in the lower income quintile (RHR = 1.06, 95%CI 1.06,1.06), and Ontario residents without a primary health care provider (RHR = 1.13, 95%CI 1.13,1.14). Once at the ED, characteristics associated with shorter ED to hospital transition times for HSUs included higher acuity (e.g., RHR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.61, 1.81 for emergent), and for many diagnoses including chest pain (RHR = 1.71, 95%CI 1.65,1.76) and gastrointestinal (RHR = 1.66, 95%CI 1.62,1.71). Once admitted to hospital, HSUs did not necessarily have longer stays except for conditions such as chest pain (RHR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.86, 0.95). HSUs had shorter times to death in the ED if they presented for cancer (RHR = 2.51), congestive heart failure (RHR = 1.93), myocardial infarction (RHR = 1.53), and stroke (RHR = 1.84), and shorter times to death in-hospital if they presented with cancer (RHR = 1.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Differences between HSUs and controls in predictors of transitions among care settings were identified. Co-morbidities and limitations in access to primary care are associated with more rapid transitions from community to ED and hospital among HSUs. Interventions targeting these challenges may better serve patients across health systems..

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

Emergency department utilization and hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions among people seeking a primary care provider during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Primary care attachment improves health care access and health outcomes, but many Canadians are unattached, seeking a provider via provincial wait-lists. This Nova Scotia-wide cohort study compares emergency department utilization and hospital admission associated with insufficient primary care management among patients on and off a provincial primary care wait-list, before and during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We linked wait-list and Nova Scotian administrative health data to describe people on and off wait-list, by quarter, between Jan. 1, 2017, and Dec. 24, 2020. We quantified emergency department utilization and ambulatory care sensitive condition (ACSC) hospital admission rates by wait-list status from physician claims and hospital admission data. We compared relative differences during the COVID-19 first and second waves with the previous year.

RESULTS

During the study period, 100 867 people in Nova Scotia (10.1% of the provincial population) were on the wait-list. Those on the wait-list had higher emergency department utilization and ACSC hospital admission. Emergency department utilization was higher overall for individuals aged 65 years and older, and females; lowest during the first 2 COVID-19 waves; and differed more by wait-list status for those younger than 65 years. Emergency department contacts and ACSC hospital admissions decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the previous year, and for emergency department utilization, this difference was more pronounced for those on the wait-list.

INTERPRETATION

People in Nova Scotia seeking primary care attachment via the provincial wait-list use hospital-based services more frequently than those not on the wait-list. Although both groups have had lower utilization during COVID-19, existing challenges to primary care access for those actively seeking a provider were further exacerbated during the initial waves of the pandemic. The degree to which forgone services produces downstream health burden remains in question.

Agreement and prognostic accuracy of three ED vulnerability screeners: findings from a prospective multi-site cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the agreement between three emergency department (ED) vulnerability screeners, including the InterRAI ED Screener, ER2, and PRISMA-7. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of screeners in predicting discharge home and extended ED lengths-of-stay (> 24 h).

METHODS

We conducted a nested sub-group study using data from a prospective multi-site cohort study evaluating frailty in older ED patients presenting to four Quebec hospitals. Research nurses assessed patients consecutively with the three screeners. We employed Cohen's Kappa to determine agreement, with high-risk cut-offs of three and four for the PRISMA-7, six for the ER2, and five for the interRAI ED Screener. We used logistic regression to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of instruments, testing them in their dichotomous, full, and adjusted forms (adjusting for age, sex, and hospital academic status).

RESULTS

We evaluated 1855 older ED patients across the four hospital sites. The mean age of our sample was 84 years. Agreement between the interRAI ED Screener and the ER2 was fair (K = 0.37; 95% CI 0.33-0.40); agreement between the PRISMA-7 and ER2 was also fair (K = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.36-0.43). Agreement between interRAI ED Screener and PRISMA-7 was poor (K = 0.19; 95% CI 0.16-0.22). Using a cut-off of four for PRISMA-7 improved agreement with the ER2 (K = 0.55; 95% CI 0.51-0.59) and the ED Screener (K = 0.32; 95% CI 0.2-0.36). When predicting discharge home, the concordance statistics among models were similar in their dichotomous (c = 0.57-0.61), full (c = 0.61-0.64), and adjusted forms (c = 0.63-0.65), and poor for all models when predicting extended length-of-stay.

CONCLUSION

ED vulnerability scores from the three instruments had a fair agreement and were associated with important patient outcomes. The interRAI ED Screener best identifies older ED patients at greatest risk, while the PRISMA-7 and ER2 are more sensitive instruments.

An observational pilot study: Prevalence and cost of high frequency emergency department users at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden

Background

There is little research on high frequency emergency department users (HEDU) in Sweden. We aim to determine the prevalence and costs of HEDU compared to non-HEDU at Örebro University Hospital (ÖUH). Additionally, we will determine the factors and outcomes associated with being a HEDU.

Methods

This was a retrospective, observational cohort study of ED patients presenting to ÖUH, Sweden between 2018–19. Analyses used electronic registry, ambulance, and cost data. The definition for HEDU was ≥4 visits/year. HEDUs were categorized further into Repeat, High and Super HEDU with 4–7, 8–18 and ≥19 visits/year, respectively. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the adjusted odds ratios for factors and outcomes between HEDU and non-HEDU.

Findings

Of all ÖUH ED patients, 6.1% were HEDU and accounted for 22.4% of ED visits and associated costs. Compared to the mean cost of non-HEDU, the Repeat, High and Super HEDU were more costly by factors of 4, 8 and 27, respectively. The HEDUs were more likely to be male, self-referred, present with abdominal pain, arrive by ambulance, at night and from the Örebro municipal region. Super HEDU were more likely to be of adult age and assigned lower acuity scores. HEDU were more likely to be directed to the surgical zone, less likely to receive radiologic imaging or achieve a 4-hr time target. In contrast to the Repeat and High HEDU, Super HEDU were less likely to be admitted, but more likely to leave without being seen.

Conclusion

ÖUH has a HEDU population with associated factors and outcomes. They account for a substantial proportion of ED costs compared to non-HEDU.

Subgroups of people who make frequent emergency department visits in Ontario and Alberta: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The population that visits emergency departments frequently is heterogeneous and at high risk for mortality. This study aimed to characterize these patients in Ontario and Alberta, compare them with controls who do not visit emergency departments frequently, and identify subgroups.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study that captured patients in Ontario or Alberta from fiscal years 2011/12 to 2015/16 in the Dynamic Cohort from the Canadian Institute for Health Information, which defined people with frequent visits to the emergency department in the top 10% of annual visits and randomly selected controls from the bottom 90%. We included patients 18 years of age or older and linked to emergency department, hospitalization, continuing care, home care and mental health-related hospitalization data. We characterized people who made frequent visits to the emergency department over time, compared them with controls and identified subgroups using cluster analysis. We examined emergency department visit acuity using the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale.

RESULTS

The number of patients who made frequent visits to the emergency department ranged from 435 334 to 477 647 each year in Ontario (≥ 4 visits per year), and from 98 840 to 105 047 in Alberta (≥ 5 visits per year). The acuity of these visits increased over time. Those who made frequent visits to the emergency department were older and used more health care services than controls. We identified 4 subgroups of those who made frequent visits: "short duration" (frequent, regularly spaced visits), "older patients" (median ages 69 and 64 years in Ontario and Alberta, respectively; more comorbidities; and more admissions), "young mental health" (median ages 45 and 40 years in Ontario and Alberta, respectively; and common mental health-related and alcohol-related visits) and "injury" (increased prevalence of injury-related visits).

INTERPRETATION

From 2011/12 to 2015/16, people who visited emergency departments frequently had increasing visit acuity, had higher health care use than controls, and comprised distinct subgroups. Emergency departments should codevelop interventions with the identified subgroups to address patient needs.

People who make frequent emergency department visits based on persistence of frequent use in Ontario and Alberta: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The factors that underlie persistent frequent visits to the emergency department are poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize people who visit emergency departments frequently in Ontario and Alberta, by number of years of frequent use.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study aimed at capturing information about patients visiting emergency departments in Ontario and Alberta, Canada, from Apr. 1, 2011, to Mar. 31, 2016. We identified people 18 years or older with frequent emergency department use (top 10% of emergency department use) in fiscal year 2015/16, using the Dynamic Cohort from the Canadian Institute of Health Information. We then organized them into subgroups based on the number of years (1 to 5) in which they met the threshold for frequent use over the study period. We characterized subgroups using linked emergency department, hospitalization and mental health-related hospitalization data.

RESULTS

We identified 252 737 people in Ontario and 63 238 people in Alberta who made frequent visits to the emergency department. In Ontario and Alberta, 44.3% and 44.7%, respectively, met the threshold for frequent use in only 1 year and made 37.9% and 38.5% of visits; 6.8% and 8.2% met the threshold for frequent use over 5 years and made 11.9% and 13.2% of visits. Many characteristics followed gradients based on persistence of frequent use: as years of frequent visits increased (1 to 5 years), people had more comorbidities, homelessness, rural residence, annual emergency department visits, alcohol- and substance use-related presentations, mental health hospitalizations and instances of leaving hospital against medical advice.

INTERPRETATION

Higher levels of comorbidities, mental health issues, substance use and rural residence were seen with increasing years of frequent emergency department use. Interventions upstream and in the emergency department must address unmet needs, including services for substance use and social supports.

Measuring the impact of an acute visiting scheme on emergency department attendances - a pre-post cohort design

BACKGROUND

Emergency department (ED) attendances are contributing to rising costs of the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Critically assessing the impact of new services to reduce emergency department use can be difficult as new services may create additional access points, unlocking latent demand. The study evaluated an Acute Visiting Scheme (AVS) in a primary care context. We asked if AVS reduces overall ED demand and whether or not it changed utilisation patterns for frequent attenders.

METHOD

The study used a pre post single cohort design. The impact of AVS on all-cause ED attendances was hypothesised as a substitution effect, where AVS duty doctor visits would replace emergency department visits. Primary outcome was frequency of ED attendances. End points were reduction of frequency of service use and increase of intervals between attendances by frequent attenders.

RESULTS

ED attendances for AVS users rose by 47.6%. If AVS use was included, there was a more than fourfold increase of total service utilisation, amounting to 438.3%. It shows that AVS unlocked significant latent demand. However, there was some reduction in the frequency of ED attendances for some patients and an increase in time intervals between ED attendances for others.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates that careful analysis of patient utilisation can detect a differential impact of AVS on the use of ED. As the new service created additional access points for patients and hence introduces an element of choice, the new service is likely to unlock latent demand. This study illustrates that AVS may be most useful if targeted at specific patient groups who are most likely to benefit from the new service.