Application of integrated production and economic models to estimate the impact of Schmallenberg virus for various beef suckler production systems in France and the United Kingdom

Development of LIME-NZ: a generic tool for prompt estimation of economic impacts of disease for New Zealand livestock

AIMS

To develop a simple and robust generic tool to measure the impacts of livestock diseases on New Zealand dairy, beef and sheep farms using enterprise gross margin models.

METHODS

The most recent (2018-2020) livestock production benchmarking data was extracted from industry-led economic surveys. Gross margin models were built for each enterprise type, accounting for 11 dairy farm types and 16 farm types for beef and sheep. Disease parameters, including changes in mortality, reproduction performance, milk yield, price of animals and culling rate, as well as additional expenses for veterinary intervention, were applied to the infected compartment of the herd/flock using the assumed annual within-herd disease incidence. Farm-level disease impacts were estimated as the difference in annual profit between the baseline and infected farm. The baseline gross margin models were validated against the industry data. The disease impact models were validated using a recently published study on bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD). The impact assessment tool, LIME-NZ, was developed using the statistical software R and implemented in the web-based R package Shiny. The input parameters can be varied interactively to obtain a range of disease impacts for uncertain disease parameters.

RESULTS

The baseline gross margin models demonstrated reasonable accuracy with a mean percentage error of <14% when compared with the industry reports. The estimated annual impacts of BVD were comparable to those reported in the BVD study, NZ$38.5-140.4 thousand and $0.9-32.6 thousand per farm per year for dairy and beef enterprises, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LIME-NZ can be used to rapidly obtain the likely economic impacts of diseases that are endemic, recently introduced or at increased risk of introduction in the New Zealand context. This will aid communication and decision-making among government agencies and the livestock industry, including veterinarians and livestock producers, about the management of diseases, until refined information becomes available to improve decision-making.

Schmallenberg Virus: To Vaccinate, or Not to Vaccinate?

Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a teratogenic orthobunyavirus that infects predominantly ruminants, emerged in 2011 in Central Europe, spread rapidly throughout the continent, and subsequently established an endemic status with re-circulations to a larger extent every 2 to 3 years. Hence, it represents a constant threat to the continent’s ruminant population when no effective countermeasures are implemented. Here, we discuss potential preventive measures to protect from Schmallenberg disease. Previous experiences with other arboviruses like bluetongue virus have already demonstrated that vaccination of livestock against a vector-transmitted disease can play a major role in reducing or even stopping virus circulation. For SBV, specific inactivated whole-virus vaccines have been developed and marketing authorizations were granted for such preparations. In addition, candidate marker vaccines either as live attenuated, DNA-mediated, subunit or live-vectored preparations have been developed, but none of these DIVA-capable candidate vaccines are currently commercially available. At the moment, the licensed inactivated vaccines are used only to a very limited extent. The high seroprevalence rates induced in years of virus re-occurrence to a larger extent, the wave-like and sometimes hard to predict circulation pattern of SBV, and the expenditures of time and costs for the vaccinations presumably impact on the willingness to vaccinate. However, one should bear in mind that the consequence of seronegative young animals and regular renewed virus circulation might be again more cases of fetal malformation caused by an infection of naïve dams during one of their first gestations. Therefore, an appropriate and cost-effective strategy might be to vaccinate naïve female animals of all affected species before the reproductive age.

Reviewing age-structured epidemiological models of cattle diseases tailored to support management decisions: Guidance for the future

Mechanistic simulation models are being increasingly used as tools to assist with animal health decision-making in the cattle sector. We reviewed scientific literature for studies reporting age-structured cattle management models in application to infectious diseases. Our emphasis was on papers dedicated to support decision making in the field. In this systematic review we considered 1290 manuscripts and identified 76 eligible studies. These are based on 52 individual models from 10 countries addressing 9 different pathogens. We provide an overview of these models and present in detail their theoretical foundations, design paradigms and incorporated processes. We propose a structure of the characteristics of cattle disease models using three main features: [1] biological processes, [2] farming-related processes and [3] pathogen-related processes. It would be of benefit if future cattle disease models were to follow this structure to facilitate science communication and to allow increased model transparency.

Schmallenberg virus: a systematic international literature review (2011-2019) from an Irish perspective

In Autumn 2011, nonspecific clinical signs of pyrexia, diarrhoea, and drop in milk yield were observed in dairy cattle near the German town of Schmallenberg at the Dutch/German border. Targeted veterinary diagnostic investigations for classical endemic and emerging viruses could not identify a causal agent. Blood samples were collected from animals with clinical signs and subjected to metagenomic analysis; a novel orthobunyavirus was identified and named Schmallenberg virus (SBV). In late 2011/early 2012, an epidemic of abortions and congenital malformations in calves, lambs and goat kids, characterised by arthrogryposis and hydranencephaly were reported in continental Europe. Subsequently, SBV RNA was confirmed in both aborted and congenitally malformed foetuses and also in Culicoides species biting midges. It soon became evident that SBV was an arthropod-borne teratogenic virus affecting domestic ruminants. SBV rapidly achieved a pan-European distribution with most countries confirming SBV infection within a year or two of the initial emergence. The first Irish case of SBV was confirmed in the south of the country in late 2012 in a bovine foetus.

Since SBV was first identified in 2011, a considerable body of scientific research has been conducted internationally describing this novel emerging virus. The aim of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive synopsis of the most up-to-date scientific literature regarding the origin of SBV and the spread of the Schmallenberg epidemic, in addition to describing the species affected, clinical signs, pathogenesis, transmission, risk factors, impact, diagnostics, surveillance methods and control measures. This review also highlights current knowledge gaps in the scientific literature regarding SBV, most notably the requirement for further research to determine if, and to what extent, SBV circulation occurred in Europe and internationally during 2017 and 2018. Moreover, recommendations are also made regarding future arbovirus surveillance in Europe, specifically the establishment of a European-wide sentinel herd surveillance program, which incorporates bovine serology and Culicoides entomology and virology studies, at national and international level to monitor for the emergence and re-emergence of arboviruses such as SBV, bluetongue virus and other novel Culicoides-borne arboviruses.

Vector-borne diseases

After a request from the European Commission, EFSA's Panel on Animal Health and Welfare summarised the main characteristics of 36 vector‐borne diseases (VBDs) in https://efsa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicGallery/index.html?appid=dfbeac92aea944599ed1eb754aa5e6d1. The risk of introduction in the EU through movement of livestock or pets was assessed for each of the 36 VBDs individually, using a semiquantitative Method to INTegrate all relevant RISK aspects (MINTRISK model), which was further modified to a European scale into the http://www3.lei.wur.nl/mintrisk/ModelMgt.aspx. Only eight of the 36 VBD‐agents had an overall rate of introduction in the EU (being the combination of the rate of entry, vector transmission and establishment) which was estimated to be above 0.001 introductions per year. These were Crimean‐Congo haemorrhagic fever virus, bluetongue virus, West Nile virus, Schmallenberg virus, Hepatozoon canis, Leishmania infantum, Bunyamwera virus and Highlands J. virus. For these eight diseases, the annual extent of spread was assessed, assuming the implementation of available, authorised prevention and control measures in the EU. Further, the probability of overwintering was assessed, as well as the possible impact of the VBDs on public health, animal health and farm production. For the other 28 VBD‐agents for which the rate of introduction was estimated to be very low, no further assessments were made. Due to the uncertainty related to some parameters used for the risk assessment or the instable or unpredictability disease situation in some of the source regions, it is recommended to update the assessment when new information becomes available. Since this risk assessment was carried out for large regions in the EU for many VBD‐agents, it should be considered as a first screening. If a more detailed risk assessment for a specific VBD is wished for on a national or subnational level, the EFSA‐VBD‐RISK‐model is freely available for this purpose.

How is Europe positioned for a re-emergence of Schmallenberg virus?

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) caused a large scale epidemic in Europe from 2011 to 2013, infecting ruminants and causing foetal deformities after infection of pregnant animals. The main impact of the virus was financial loss due to restrictions on trade of animals, meat and semen. Although effective vaccines were produced, their uptake was never high. Along with the subsequent decline in new SBV infections and natural replacement of previously exposed livestock, this has resulted in a decrease in the number of protected animals. Recent surveillance has shown that a large population of naïve animals is currently present in Europe and that the virus is circulating at a low level. These changes in animal status, in combination with favourable conditions for insect vectors, may open the door to the re-emergence of SBV and another large scale outbreak in Europe. This review details the potential and preparedness for SBV re-emergence in Europe, discusses possible co-ordinated sentinel monitoring programmes for ruminant seroconversion and the presence of SBV in the insect vectors, and provides an overview of the economic impact associated with diagnosis, control and the effects of non-vaccination.

Failure of Passive Immune Transfer in Calves: A Meta-Analysis on the Consequences and Assessment of the Economic Impact

Low colostrum intake at birth results in the failure of passive transfer (FPT) due to the inadequate ingestion of colostral immunoglobulins (Ig). FPT is associated with an increased risk of mortality and decreased health and longevity. Despite the known management practices associated with low FPT, it remains an important issue in the field. Neither a quantitative analysis of FPT consequences nor an assessment of its total cost are available. To address this point, a meta-analysis on the adjusted associations between FPT and its outcomes was first performed. Then, the total costs of FPT in European systems were calculated using a stochastic method with adjusted values as the input parameters. The adjusted risks (and 95% confidence intervals) for mortality, bovine respiratory disease, diarrhoea and overall morbidity in the case of FPT were 2.12 (1.43–3.13), 1.75 (1.50–2.03), 1.51 (1.05–2.17) and 1.91 (1.63–2.24), respectively. The mean (and 95% prediction interval) total costs per calf with FPT were estimated to be €60 (€10–109) and €80 (€20–139) for dairy and beef, respectively. As a result of the double-step stochastic method, the proposed economic estimation constitutes the first estimate available for FPT. The results are presented in a way that facilitates their use in the field and, with limited effort, combines the cost of each contributor to increase the applicability of the economic assessment to the situations farm-advisors may face. The present economic estimates are also an important tool to evaluate the profitability of measures that aim to improve colostrum intake and FPT prevention.