Competing risk nomogram predicting initial loco-regional recurrence in gastric cancer patients after D2 gastrectomy

Predicting cancer-specific mortality in T1/2 hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation by competing risk nomogram: A population-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is one of the primary treatment methods for T1/2 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the risk factors after RFA remain controversial. This study aims to identify the key factors associated with cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in patients with T1/2 HCC after RFA using competing risk analysis and to establish a prognostic nomogram for improved clinical management.

METHODS

A total of 2,135 T1/2 HCC patients treated with RFA were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly categorized into training and validation sets. Univariate and multivariable competing risk analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with CSM and construct a competing risk nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance indices (C-indexes), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to evaluate the predictive efficiency and clinical applicability of the nomogram in the training and validation sets. Patients were stratified according to their nomogram score, and the different risk groups were compared using cumulative incidence function (CIF) curves and Gray's validation .

RESULTS

The 5-year CSM rate for HCC patients treated with RFA was 30.1 %. Grade, tumor size, tumor number, cirrhosis, and AFP level were identified as independent risk factors for CSM. A prognostic nomogram was developed based on these risk factors. The time-dependent C-indexes (0.65) were greater than those of the AJCC stage model (0.55) during the 12 to 60 months of follow-up. The calibration plots of the competing risk nomograms demonstrated excellent consistency between actual survival and nomogram predictions. ROC analyses showed that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUC values in both the training and validation cohorts were all greater than 0.63 and exceeded those of the AJCC stage model. DCA demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Patients were classified into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups based on the nomogram scores, with the high-risk group showing significantly higher CSM rates after RFA compared to the other two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified Grade, AFP, cirrhosis, tumor size, and tumor number as independent risk factors associated with CSM. The competing risk nomogram exhibited high performance in predicting the probability of CSM for HCC patients undergoing RFA.

Competing risk nomogram for predicting cancer-specific mortality in patients with non-melanoma skin cancer

PURPOSE

This study aimed to assess the cumulative incidences of Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC)-specific mortality (NMSC-SM) and develop a competing risk nomogram for NMSC-SM.

METHODS

Data on patients diagnosed with NMSC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. To identify the independent prognostic factors, univariate and multivariate competing risk models were used, and a competing risk model was constructed. Based on the model, we developed a competing risk nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 8-year cumulative probabilities of NMSC-SM. The precision and ability to discriminate of the nomogram were evaluated through the utilization of metrics, such as receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and a calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to assess the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Race, age, the primary site of the tumor, tumor grade, size, histological type, summary stage, stage group, order of radiation and surgery, and bone metastases were identified as independent risk factors. The prediction nomogram was constructed using the variables mentioned above. The ROC curves implied the good discrimination ability of the predictive model. The nomogram's C-index was 0.840 and 0.843 in the training and validation sets, respectively, and the calibration plots were well fitted. In addition, the competing risk nomogram demonstrated good clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSION

The competing risk nomogram displayed excellent discrimination and calibration for predicting NMSC-SM, which can be used in clinical contexts to help guide treatment decisions.

The definition of "R1" lymph node dissection status in patients undergoing curative-aim gastrectomy for gastric carcinoma: A proof of concept study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to define and investigate the prognostic impact of "R1-Lymph-node dissection" during gastrectomy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study conducted with 499 patients undergoing curative-aim gastrectomy. We defined R1-Lymph dissection as an involvement of lymph node stations anatomically connected with lymph node stations outside the declared level of dissection (D1 to D2+). The primary outcomes were disease-free and disease-specific survival (DFS and DSS).

RESULTS

At multivariable analysis, the type of gastrectomy, pT and pN were associated with DFS, and the type of gastrectomy, R1-Margin status, R1-Lymph status, pT, pN and adjuvant therapy were associated with DSS. Moreover, pT and R1-Lymph status were the only factors associated with overall loco-regional recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we introduced the concept of R1-Lymph-node dissection, which was significantly associated with DSS and appeared to be a stronger prognostic factor for loco-regional recurrence than the R1 status on the resection margin.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram for predicting overall survival in gastric cancer based on inflammatory markers

BACKGROUND

Nearly 66% of occurrences of gastric cancer (GC), which has the second-highest death rate of all cancers, arise in developing countries. In several cancers, the predictive significance of inflammatory markers has been established.

AIM

To identify clinical characteristics and develop a specific nomogram to determine overall survival for GC patients.

METHODS

Nine hundred and four GC patients treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between January 2010 and January 2013 were recruited. Prognostic risk variables were screened for Cox analysis. The C index, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the nomogram.

RESULTS

Tumor node metastasis stage, carcinoembryonic antigen, systemic immune-inflammation index, and age were identified as independent predictive variables by multivariate analysis. Systemic immune-inflammation index value was superior to that of other inflammatory indicators. The ROC indicated the nomogram had a higher area under the curve than other factors, and its C-index for assessing the validation and training groups of GC patients was extremely reliable.

CONCLUSION

We created a novel nomogram to forecast the prognosis of GC patients following curative gastrectomy based on blood markers and other characteristics. Both surgeons and patients can benefit significantly from this new scoring system.

Role of Adjuvant Radiotherapy in Gastric Cancer

Although continuous improvement in the treatment outcome of localized gastric cancer has been achieved through early screening, diagnosis, and treatment and the active application of surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy, the necessity of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) remains controversial. In this review, based on the results of two recently published randomized phase III studies (Adjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy In Stomach Cancer 2 and ChemoRadiotherapy after Induction chemoTherapy of Cancer in the Stomach) and a meta-analysis of six randomized trials including these two studies, the role of adjuvant RT in gastric cancer was evaluated and discussed, especially in patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy. This article also reported the possible indications for adjuvant RT in the current clinical situation and in future research to enable patient-specific treatments according to the risk of recurrence.

Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy vs adjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of gastroesophageal junction after D2/R0 resection

BACKGROUND

For Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of gastroesophageal junction (AGE), the efficacy of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) after D2/R0 resection remains uncertain.

AIM

To determine whether CRT was superior to chemotherapy (CT) alone after D2/R0 resection for locally advanced Siewert type II/III AGE.

METHODS

We identified 316 locally advanced Siewert type II/III AGE patients who were treated with D2/R0 resection at National Cancer Center from 2011 to 2018. 57 patients received adjuvant CRT and 259 patients received adjuvant CT. We followed patients for overall survival (OS), relapse-free survival, and recurrence pattern.

RESULTS

Five-year OS rates of the CRT group and the CT group for all patients were 66.7% and 41.9% (P = 0.010). Five-year OS rates of the CRT group and the CT group for Siewert type III AGE patients were 65.7% and 43.9% (P = 0.006). Among the 195 patients whose recurrence information could be obtained, 18 cases (34.6%) and 61 cases (42.7%) were diagnosed as recurrence in the CRT group and CT group, respectively. The local and regional recurrence rates in the CRT group were lower than that in the CT group (22.2% vs 24.6%, 27.8% vs 39.3%). Multivariable cox regression analysis showed that vascular invasion, nerve invasion, and adjuvant CRT were important prognostic factors for Siewert type III AGE.

CONCLUSION

For locally advanced Siewert type III AGE, adjuvant CRT may prolong OS and reduce the regional recurrence rate.

Adjuvant SOX chemotherapy versus concurrent chemoradiotherapy after D2 radical resection of locally advanced esophagogastric junction (EGJ) adenocarcinoma: study protocol for a randomized phase III trial (ARTEG)

BACKGROUND

Survival benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy for locally advanced gastric cancer following gastrectomy plus D2 lymphadenectomy has always been controversial. Esophagogastric junction (EGJ) adenocarcinoma, which is usually classified as gastric cancer in East Asia, often has a higher locoregional recurrence rate after operation because of its special anatomical characteristics. The aim of this study is to determine whether adjuvant radiotherapy can improve survival of locally advanced EGJ adenocarcinoma after D2 radical resection.

METHODS

In this phase III, randomized, open label, controlled trial, we plan to recruit 378 patients with Siewert type II and III adenocarcinoma of EGJ, who had undergone transabdominal radical surgery and D2 lymphadenectomy, and were divided into pathological stage IIB to IIIC. All patients will be randomized 1:1 to receive either adjuvant chemotherapy alone (control group) or adjuvant chemotherapy plus chemoradiotherapy (experimental group). Patients allocated to control group will receive eight cycles of S-1 plus oxaliplatin (SOX), while the experimental group will receive two cycles of SOX followed by 45-Gy RT combined with S-1 and four additional cycles of SOX. The primary endpoint is 3-year disease-free survival rate (DFS). The secondary endpoints are 3-year overall survival rate (OS), 3-year locoregional recurrence-free survival rate (LRFS), 3-year distant metastasis-free survival rate (DMFS), and quality of life (QoL).

DISCUSSION

In the past, the adjuvant treatment of EGJ adenocarcinoma needs to draw on the experience of esophageal adenocarcinoma or gastric adenocarcinoma. In this study, EGJ adenocarcinoma is considered as an independent disease, and the conclusion will provide evidence for optimal adjuvant therapy of locally advanced EGJ adenocarcinoma after D2 radical resection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03973008 . Registered on 1 June 2019 (retrospectively registered), URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03973008?term=NCT03973008&draw=2&rank=1.

Predicting cancer-specific mortality in patients with parotid gland carcinoma by competing risk nomogram

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to establish a competing risk nomogram to predict parotid gland cancer-specific mortality (PGC-SM).

METHODS

Seven thousand nine hundred and sixty-two patients extracted from SEER database were randomly categorized into training and validation sets. The competing risk model was used to identify factors associated with PGC-SM. The nomogram was evaluated via concordance indexes (C-indexes), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Male, elderly, white, widowed, larger tumor, no surgery, advanced tumor grade, lymph node (LN) metastasis, adenocarcinoma (ADC), and higher TNM stage were associated with higher incidence of PGC-SM. Calibration plots showed that the nomogram was well calibrated. C-indexes for nomogram were 0.84 (95% CI: 0.81-0.86) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82-0.86) in training and validation sets, respectively. DCA demonstrated the clinical usefulness of nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

The competing risk nomogram shows high performance in predicting PGC-SM, which might enable clinicians formulate suitable treatment protocols for patients with parotid gland carcinoma (PGC).

Computed Tomography-Based Radiomics Nomogram: Potential to Predict Local Recurrence of Gastric Cancer After Radical Resection

Objective

Accurate prediction of postoperative recurrence risk of gastric cancer (GC) is critical for individualized precision therapy. We aimed to investigate whether a computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics nomogram can be used as a tool for predicting the local recurrence (LR) of GC after radical resection.

Materials and Methods

342 patients (194 in the training cohort, 78 in the internal validation cohort, and 70 in the external validation cohort) with pathologically proven GC from two centers were included. Radiomics features were extracted from the preoperative CT imaging. The clinical model, radiomics signature, and radiomics nomogram, which incorporated the radiomics signature and independent clinical risk factors, were developed and verified. Furthermore, the performance of these three models was assessed by using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The radiomics signature, which was comprised of two selected radiomics features, namely, contrast_GLCM and dissimilarity_GLCM, showed better performance than the clinical model in predicting the LR of GC, with AUC values of 0.83 in the training cohort, 0.84 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.73 in the external cohort, respectively. By integrating the independent clinical risk factors (N stage, bile acid duodenogastric reflux and nodular or irregular outer layer of the gastric wall) into the radiomics signature, the radiomics nomogram achieved the highest accuracy in predicting LR, with AUC values of 0.89, 0.89 and 0.80 in the three cohorts, respectively. DCA in the validation cohort showed that radiomics nomogram added more net benefit than the clinical model within the range of 0.01-0.98.

Conclusion

The CT-based radiomics nomogram has the potential to predict the LR of GC after radical resection.

Identification of Patients With Locally Advanced Gastric Cancer Who May Benefit From Adjuvant Chemoradiotherapy After D2 dissection: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Background

One of the most controversial areas in gastrointestinal oncology is the benefit of postoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) over chemotherapy (CT) alone after D2 dissection of locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC). We aimed to identify the LAGC patients who may benefit from adjuvant CRT.

Methods

We analyzed retrospectively 188 patients receiving radical gastrectomy with D2 dissection for LAGC in our hospital. Patients were divided into two balanced groups by using propensity score matching: CRT group (n = 94) received adjuvant CRT, and CT group received adjuvant CT alone.

Results

At a median follow-up of 27.10 months, 188 patients developed 79 first recurrence events (36 in CRT group and 43 in CT group). Our results showed that adjuvant CRT significantly decreased the risk of developing local regional recurrence (LRR) when compared to CT alone (14.9% vs. 25.5%, p = 0.044), while the estimated 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) was comparable between the CRT and CT groups (59.3% vs. 50.9%, p = 0.239). In the subgroup analysis, a significantly decreased LRR rate was also observed in LAGC patients with N1-3a stage after adjuvant CRT (p = 0.046), but not for N3b. Para-aortic lymph nodes (station No. 16) were the most frequent sites of LRR. After receiving radiotherapy, recurrence of 16 a2 region and 16 b1 region were significantly deceased (p = 0.026 and p = 0.044, respectively). Patients who received irradiation more than 4 months after surgery showed an increased risk of LRR (p = 0.022).

Conclusions

This study showed that adjuvant CRT significantly reduced LRR after D2 dissection of LAGC. Early initiation of adjuvant RT with clinical target volume encompassing a2 and b1 regions of para-aortic lymph nodes is recommended for pN1-3a patients after D2 dissection.

Development and External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Recurrence-Free Survival After R0 Resection for Stage II/III Gastric Cancer: An International Multicenter Study

Background: The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy varies widely among patients with stage II/III gastric cancer (GC), and tools predicting outcomes for this patient subset are lacking. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and the benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection in patients with stage II/III GC.

Methods: Data on patients with stage II/III GC who underwent R0 resection from January 2010 to August 2014 at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (FMUUH) (n = 1,240; training cohort) were analyzed by Cox regression to identify independent prognostic factors for RFS. A nomogram including these factors was internally and externally validated in FMUUH (n = 306) and a US cohort (n = 111), respectively.

Results: The multivariable analysis identified age, differentiation, tumor size, number of examined lymph nodes, pT stage, pN stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy as associated with RFS. A nomogram including the above 7 factors was significantly more accurate in predicting RFS compared with the 8^th AJCC-TNM staging system for patients in the training cohort. The risk of peritoneal metastasis was higher and survival after recurrence was significantly worse among patients calculated by the nomogram to be at high risk than those at low risk. The nomogram's predictive performance was confirmed in both the internal and external validation cohorts.

Conclusion: A novel nomogram is available as a web-based tool and accurately predicts long-term RFS for GC after radical resection. The tool can also be used to determine the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy by comparing scores with and without this intervention.

Disadvantages for non-Hispanic whites in gastric carcinoma survival in Florida

PURPOSE

The prognosis for gastric carcinoma (GC) remains challenging with less than 35% of patients surviving 5 years. GC survival varies greatly by anatomical site, cardia and non-cardia. However, these important differences have not been thoroughly studied in relation to the increasing diversity in US populations such as Florida. In this study we examined, for the first time, the effect of race-ethnicity on risk of death from GC controlling for potential risk factors separately for cardia and non-cardia GCs.

METHODS

Data on GCs diagnosed in Florida from 2005-2016 were obtained from the statewide cancer registry. Age-standardized GC-specific 5-year survival was computed by anatomical site and race-ethnicity. In addition, a competing risk analysis was performed to assess prognostic factors and to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios of death from GC.

RESULTS

Whites had high proportions of cardia GC (43.9%) compared to all racial/ethnic minorities (10.9%, 19.6%, and 13.8% in Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, respectively; p < .0001). Among 12,302 cases included, there were 7534 deaths from GC and 1179 from other causes. Age standardized GC-specific 5-year survival was significantly lower for Whites (28.0%) compared to Blacks (31.6%), Hispanics (37.6%), and Asians, (39.6%) and significantly lower for cardia GC (25.0%, 95% CI 23.4-26.6) compared to non-cardia GC (37.0%, 95% CI 35.5-38.4). Multivariable competing risk analysis in patients with non-cardia GC showed that Asians (sHR: 0.64, 95% CI 0.51-0.80), Hispanics (sHR 0.71, 95% CI 0.64-0.78), and Blacks (sHR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75-0.92) all had lower risks of death from GC compared to Whites. In patients with cardia GC, only Hispanics had statistically significant lower risk of death from GC than Whites (sHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.95, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

The study of racial/ethnic survival disparities in patients with GC in Florida reveals Whites as the most disadvantaged group. Whites are more afflicted by cardia GC, which is associated with higher risk of death than non-cardia GC. However, even within non-cardia GC, Whites had higher risk of death than the other racial-ethnic groups. Commonly assessed survival determinants do not adequately explain these unusual disparities; thus, further investigation is warranted.