Early predicting 30-day mortality in sepsis in MIMIC-III by an artificial neural networks model

Integrating Multimodal EHR Data for Mortality Prediction in ICU Sepsis Patients

Rapid and accurate prediction of mortality risk among intensive care unit (ICU) sepsis patients is crucial for timely intervention and improving patient outcomes. However, due to the multimodal and dynamic time-series nature of patient visit information and the limited data samples, it is challenging to obtain discriminative patient representations, leading to suboptimal mortality prediction results. To address this issue, we design a time-aware graph embedding attention model (TGAM) to integrate multimodal data and predict mortality in ICU sepsis patients. Our approach involves modeling and generating patient representations that encompass not only demographic information but also dynamic time-series data reflecting patient health status. Additionally, the graph convolutional network is used to obtain informative concept embeddings from medical ontologies, and an improved transformer is used to capture the temporal information of the patient's health status and handle missing values, overcoming the limitations of small samples. The experimental results on the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets demonstrate that TGAM significantly improves prediction accuracy, with AUROC scores of 87.65% and 87.00% on the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets, respectively, outperforming baseline models by over 5 percentage points. TGAM also achieves higher sensitivity, specificity, and AUPRC metrics, and lower Brier Score compared with baseline models, highlighting its effectiveness in identifying high-risk patients. These findings suggest that TGAM has the potential to become a valuable tool for identifying high-risk sepsis patients, enabling clinicians to make more informed and timely intervention decisions.

Inflammatory burden index as a predictor of mortality in septic patients: a retrospective study using the MIMIC-IV database

PURPOSE

Previous studies have identified the Inflammatory Burden Index (IBI) as a potential predictor of mortality risk in inflammatory diseases. However, its relationship with mortality rates specifically in septic patients has not been thoroughly investigated. This study aimed to explore the association between IBI and mortality risk in patients with sepsis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We sourced clinical records of 1,828 septic patients from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV 3.0) dataset, covering the period from 2008 to 2022. The primary endpoint was mortality within 28 days, with secondary endpoints including mortality during intensive care unit (ICU) stays and throughout hospitalization. Patients were categorized into quartiles based on their log-transformed Inflammatory Burden Index (LnIBI) levels. Binary logistic regression was utilized to examine the independent influence of IBI on mortality outcomes, adjusting for confounders. Additionally, the association between IBI and these outcomes was explored using restricted cubic splines and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Further comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was conducted to investigate the predictive performance.

RESULTS

The study involved 1,828 septic patients, including 1,047 males. The all-cause mortality rates were 17.78% (325/1828) within 28 days, 17.34% (317/1828) during ICU stays, and 18.22% (333/1828) over the course of hospitalization. In the adjusted model, a positive correlation was found between LnIBI and mortality at 28 days (OR 1.093[1.014, 1.179], P = 0.021), during ICU stay (OR 1.106[1.025, 1.195], P = 0.01), and throughout hospitalization (OR 1.1[1.022, 1.187], P = 0.012). The analysis using restricted cubic splines showed a linear correlation between LnIBI and mortality risks. The areas under the curve (AUC) of LnIBI was larger than that of CRP (P < 0.05), and there were no significant differences between LnIBI and Neutrophil counts or Lymphocyte counts (P > 0.05). Kaplan-Meier plots revealed significantly lower survival rates for patients in the highest quartile of LnIBI (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Elevated IBI values are significantly linked with higher mortality risks within 28 days, during ICU, and throughout the hospitalization period in septic patients.

Early sepsis mortality prediction model based on interpretable machine learning approach: development and validation study

Sepsis triggers a harmful immune response due to infection, causing high mortality. Predicting sepsis outcomes early is vital. Despite machine learning's (ML) use in medical research, local validation within the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database is lacking. We aimed to devise a prognostic model, leveraging MIMIC-IV data, to predict sepsis mortality and validate it in a Chinese teaching hospital. MIMIC-IV provided patient data, split into training and internal validation sets. Four ML models logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), deep neural networks (DNN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were employed. Shapley additive interpretation offered early and interpretable mortality predictions. Area under the ROC curve (AUROC) gaged predictive performance. Results were cross verified in a Chinese teaching hospital. The study included 27,134 sepsis patients from MIMIC-IV and 487 from China. After comparing, 52 clinical indicators were selected for ML model development. All models exhibited excellent discriminative ability. XGBoost surpassed others, with AUROC of 0.873 internally and 0.844 externally. XGBoost outperformed other ML models (LR: 0.829; SVM: 0.830; DNN: 0.837) and clinical scores (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II: 0.728; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment: 0.728; Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score: 0.738; Glasgow Coma Scale: 0.691). XGBoost's hospital mortality prediction achieved AUROC 0.873, sensitivity 0.818, accuracy 0.777, specificity 0.768, and F1 score 0.551. We crafted an interpretable model for sepsis death risk prediction. ML algorithms surpassed traditional scores for sepsis mortality forecast. Validation in a Chinese teaching hospital echoed these findings.

TCKAN: a novel integrated network model for predicting mortality risk in sepsis patients

Sepsis poses a major global health threat, accounting for millions of deaths annually and significant economic costs. Accurately predicting the risk of mortality in sepsis patients enables early identification, promotes the efficient allocation of medical resources, and facilitates timely interventions, thereby improving patient outcomes. Current methods typically utilize only one type of data-either constant, temporal, or ICD codes. This study introduces a novel approach, the Time-Constant Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (TCKAN), which uniquely integrates temporal data, constant data, and ICD codes within a single predictive model. Unlike existing methods that typically rely on one type of data, TCKAN leverages a multi-modal data integration strategy, resulting in superior predictive accuracy and robustness in identifying high-risk sepsis patients. Validated against the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets, TCKAN surpasses existing machine learning and deep learning methods in accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Notably, TCKAN achieved AUCs of 87.76% and 88.07%, demonstrating superior capability in identifying high-risk patients. Additionally, TCKAN effectively combats the prevalent issue of data imbalance in clinical settings, improving the detection of patients at elevated risk of mortality and facilitating timely interventions. These results confirm the model's effectiveness and its potential to transform patient management and treatment optimization in clinical practice. Although the TCKAN model has already incorporated temporal, constant, and ICD code data, future research could include more diverse medical data types, such as imaging and laboratory test results, to achieve a more comprehensive data integration and further improve predictive accuracy.

Harnessing artificial intelligence in sepsis care: advances in early detection, personalized treatment, and real-time monitoring

Sepsis remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide due to its rapid progression and heterogeneous nature. This review explores the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to transform sepsis management, from early detection to personalized treatment and real-time monitoring. AI, particularly through machine learning (ML) techniques such as random forest models and deep learning algorithms, has shown promise in analyzing electronic health record (EHR) data to identify patterns that enable early sepsis detection. For instance, random forest models have demonstrated high accuracy in predicting sepsis onset in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, while deep learning approaches have been applied to recognize complications such as sepsis-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Personalized treatment plans developed through AI algorithms predict patient-specific responses to therapies, optimizing therapeutic efficacy and minimizing adverse effects. AI-driven continuous monitoring systems, including wearable devices, provide real-time predictions of sepsis-related complications, enabling timely interventions. Beyond these advancements, AI enhances diagnostic accuracy, predicts long-term outcomes, and supports dynamic risk assessment in clinical settings. However, ethical challenges, including data privacy concerns and algorithmic biases, must be addressed to ensure fair and effective implementation. The significance of this review lies in addressing the current limitations in sepsis management and highlighting how AI can overcome these hurdles. By leveraging AI, healthcare providers can significantly enhance diagnostic accuracy, optimize treatment protocols, and improve overall patient outcomes. Future research should focus on refining AI algorithms with diverse datasets, integrating emerging technologies, and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration to address these challenges and realize AI's transformative potential in sepsis care.

Machine learning for predicting mortality in adult critically ill patients with Sepsis: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Various Machine Learning (ML) models have been used to predict sepsis-associated mortality. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the methodologies employed in studies to predict mortality among patients with sepsis.

METHODS

Following a pre-established protocol registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, we performed a comprehensive search of databases from inception to February 2024. We included peer-reviewed articles reporting predicting mortality in critically ill adult patients with sepsis.

RESULTS

Among the 1822 articles, 31 were included, involving 1,477,200 adult patients with sepsis. Nineteen studies had a high risk of bias. Among the diverse ML models, Logistic regression and eXtreme Gradient Boosting were the most frequently used, in 22 and 16 studies, respectively. Nine studies performed internal and external validation. Compared with conventional scoring systems such as SOFA, the ML models showed slightly higher performance in predicting mortality (AUROC ranges: 0.62-0.90 vs. 0.47-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

ML models demonstrate a modest improvement in predicting sepsis-associated mortality. The certainty of these findings remains low due to the high risk of bias and significant heterogeneity. Studies should include comprehensive methodological details on calibration and hyperparameter selection, adopt a standardized definition of sepsis, and conduct multicenter prospective designs along with external validations.

Machine learning-based prognostic model for 30-day mortality prediction in Sepsis-3

BACKGROUND

Sepsis poses a critical threat to hospitalized patients, particularly those in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Rapid identification of Sepsis is crucial for improving survival rates. Machine learning techniques offer advantages over traditional methods for predicting outcomes. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model using a Stacking-based Meta-Classifier to predict 30-day mortality risks in Sepsis-3 patients from the MIMIC-III database.

METHODS

A cohort of 4,240 Sepsis-3 patients was analyzed, with 783 experiencing 30-day mortality and 3,457 surviving. Fifteen biomarkers were selected using feature ranking methods, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, and Extra Tree, and the Logistic Regression (LR) model was used to assess their individual predictability with a fivefold cross-validation approach for the validation of the prediction. The dataset was balanced using the SMOTE-TOMEK LINK technique, and a stacking-based meta-classifier was used for 30-day mortality prediction. The SHapley Additive explanations analysis was performed to explain the model's prediction.

RESULTS

Using the LR classifier, the model achieved an area under the curve or AUC score of 0.99. A nomogram provided clinical insights into the biomarkers' significance. The stacked meta-learner, LR classifier exhibited the best performance with 95.52% accuracy, 95.79% precision, 95.52% recall, 93.65% specificity, and a 95.60% F1-score.

CONCLUSIONS

In conjunction with the nomogram, the proposed stacking classifier model effectively predicted 30-day mortality in Sepsis patients. This approach holds promise for early intervention and improved outcomes in treating Sepsis cases.

Prediction of sepsis mortality in ICU patients using machine learning methods

PROBLEM

Sepsis, a life-threatening condition, accounts for the deaths of millions of people worldwide. Accurate prediction of sepsis outcomes is crucial for effective treatment and management. Previous studies have utilized machine learning for prognosis, but have limitations in feature sets and model interpretability.

AIM

This study aims to develop a machine learning model that enhances prediction accuracy for sepsis outcomes using a reduced set of features, thereby addressing the limitations of previous studies and enhancing model interpretability.

METHODS

This study analyzes intensive care patient outcomes using the MIMIC-IV database, focusing on adult sepsis cases. Employing the latest data extraction tools, such as Google BigQuery, and following stringent selection criteria, we selected 38 features in this study. This selection is also informed by a comprehensive literature review and clinical expertise. Data preprocessing included handling missing values, regrouping categorical variables, and using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to balance the data. We evaluated several machine learning models: Decision Trees, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Random Forest. The Sequential Halving and Classification (SHAC) algorithm was used for hyperparameter tuning, and both train-test split and cross-validation methodologies were employed for performance and computational efficiency.

RESULTS

The Random Forest model was the most effective, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.94 with a confidence interval of ±0.01. This significantly outperformed other models and set a new benchmark in the literature. The model also provided detailed insights into the importance of various clinical features, with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and average urine output being highly predictive. SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analysis further enhanced the model's interpretability, offering a clearer understanding of feature impacts.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates significant improvements in predicting sepsis outcomes using a Random Forest model, supported by advanced machine learning techniques and thorough data preprocessing. Our approach provided detailed insights into the key clinical features impacting sepsis mortality, making the model both highly accurate and interpretable. By enhancing the model's practical utility in clinical settings, we offer a valuable tool for healthcare professionals to make data-driven decisions, ultimately aiming to minimize sepsis-induced fatalities.

Prediction of 30-day mortality for ICU patients with Sepsis-3

BACKGROUND

There is a growing demand for advanced methods to improve the understanding and prediction of illnesses. This study focuses on Sepsis, a critical response to infection, aiming to enhance early detection and mortality prediction for Sepsis-3 patients to improve hospital resource allocation.

METHODS

In this study, we developed a Machine Learning (ML) framework to predict the 30-day mortality rate of ICU patients with Sepsis-3 using the MIMIC-III database. Advanced big data extraction tools like Snowflake were used to identify eligible patients. Decision tree models and Entropy Analyses helped refine feature selection, resulting in 30 relevant features curated with clinical experts. We employed the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model for its efficiency and predictive power.

RESULTS

The study comprised a cohort of 9118 Sepsis-3 patients. Our preprocessing techniques significantly improved both the AUC and accuracy metrics. The LightGBM model achieved an impressive AUC of 0.983 (95% CI: [0.980-0.990]), an accuracy of 0.966, and an F1-score of 0.910. Notably, LightGBM showed a substantial 6% improvement over our best baseline model and a 14% enhancement over the best existing literature. These advancements are attributed to (I) the inclusion of the novel and pivotal feature Hospital Length of Stay (HOSP_LOS), absent in previous studies, and (II) LightGBM's gradient boosting architecture, enabling robust predictions with high-dimensional data while maintaining computational efficiency, as demonstrated by its learning curve.

CONCLUSIONS

Our preprocessing methodology reduced the number of relevant features and identified a crucial feature overlooked in previous studies. The proposed model demonstrated high predictive power and generalization capability, highlighting the potential of ML in ICU settings. This model can streamline ICU resource allocation and provide tailored interventions for Sepsis-3 patients.

LncRNA HOTTIP as a diagnostic biomarker for acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with sepsis and to predict the short-term clinical outcome: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

The present research aims to investigate the clinical diagnostic value of LncRNA HOXA distal transcript antisense RNA (HOTTIP) in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) of sepsis and its predictive significance for mortality.

METHODS

One hundred eighteenth patients with sepsis and 96 healthy individuals were enrolled. RT-qPCR to examine HOTTIP levels. The incidence of ARDS and death was recorded. The diagnostic significance of HOTTIP in sepsis ARDS was examined using ROC and logistic regression analysis. The correlation between HOTTIP and disease severity was evaluated using Pearson's coefficients. Kaplan-Meier analysis and COX regression were employed to examine the predictive significance of mortality. Validation of HOTTIP target miRNA by dual-luciferase assay.

RESULTS

HOTTIP was persistently up-regulated in patients with ARDS sepsis than in patients without ARDS patients (P < 0.05). HOTTIP was a risk factor for the development of ARDS, which could be diagnosed in ARDS patients from non-ARDS patients (AUC = 0.847). Both the SOFA score (r = 0.6793) and the APACHE II score (r = 0.6384) were positively correlated with the HOTTIP levels. Furthermore, serum HOTTIP was an independent predictor of short-term mortality (HR = 4.813. 95%CI: 1.471-15.750, P = 0.009) and noticeably predicted the occurrence of short-term death (log rank = 0.020). miR-574-5p, a target miRNA for HOTTIP, was reduced in patients with sepsis ARDS and negatively correlated with HOTTIP.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of HOTTIP serves as a diagnostic biomarker for the occurrence of ARDS, exhibits correlation with disease severity, and provides predictive value of short-term mortality in sepsis patients. HOTTIP may be involved in ARDS progression by targeting miR-574-5p.

Machine learning-based prediction of in-ICU mortality in pneumonia patients

Conventional severity-of-illness scoring systems have shown suboptimal performance for predicting in-intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients with severe pneumonia. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models for mortality prediction in patients with severe pneumonia. This retrospective study evaluated patients admitted to the ICU for severe pneumonia between January 2016 and December 2021. The predictive performance was analyzed by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC) of ML models to that of conventional severity-of-illness scoring systems. Three ML models were evaluated: (1) logistic regression with L2 regularization, (2) gradient-boosted decision tree (LightGBM), and (3) multilayer perceptron (MLP). Among the 816 pneumonia patients included, 223 (27.3%) patients died. All ML models significantly outperformed the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (AU-ROC: 0.650 [0.584-0.716] vs 0.820 [0.771-0.869] for logistic regression vs 0.827 [0.777-0.876] for LightGBM 0.838 [0.791-0.884] for MLP; P < 0.001). In the analysis for NRI, the LightGBM and MLP models showed superior reclassification compared with the logistic regression model in predicting in-ICU mortality in all length of stay in the ICU subgroups; all age subgroups; all subgroups with any APACHE II score, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio < 200; all subgroups with or without history of respiratory disease; with or without history of CVA or dementia; treatment with mechanical ventilation, and use of inotropic agents. In conclusion, the ML models have excellent performance in predicting in-ICU mortality in patients with severe pneumonia. Moreover, this study highlights the potential advantages of selecting individual ML models for predicting in-ICU mortality in different subgroups.