Somehow I always end up alone: COVID-19, social isolation and crime in Queensland, Australia

The Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Reports of Domestic Violence Against Women in the Context of a Middle-Income Country: The Case of Belo Horizonte, Brazil

The city of Belo Horizonte is a state capital in Brazil with 2.7 million people. The city is remarkable for its stubbornly high and stable levels of domestic violence, and for having implemented very restrictive responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 260 weeks of data between 2017 and 2021, we used an Interrupted Time Series model to estimate the effect of the restrictive orders and their subsequent relief on reports of domestic violence against women. Results show that restrictive orders had a large and negative immediate impact on reports of domestic violence against women, which was immediately followed by a gradual increase towards their original level. The subsequent relief had no impact, as the series had already resumed its earlier trend by the time restrictions ended. We engage with theory and extant research from middle-income countries to consider why reports declined and why this decline was momentary. Findings contrast with research in high-income countries, which generally found increases in reports of domestic violence after implementing pandemic-related restrictions. However, results align with a single other study in Mexico, a medium-income country similar to Brazil. In light of our data's context and literature, we considered that reports of domestic violence may have declined not necessarily because of a reduction in actual incidents, but because the restrictions may have exacerbated the isolation of women in vulnerable domestic arrangements, limiting their ability to report their victimization. A stable trend in reports of domestic violence against women, which resumed even after a global pandemic, suggests that current policies have been ineffective and that addressing domestic violence requires a better understanding of related issues and evidence-based strategies. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the consequences of hastily implemented policies during a crisis. While necessary, such policies can inadvertently exacerbate issues such as social isolation.

Violent assault geographies in northeastern Australia

As climate change produces more extreme weather, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of these changes on social behaviour. The relationship between weather and crime has been studied across numerous contexts. However, few studies examine the correlation between weather and violence in southern, non-temperate climates. In addition, the literature lacks longitudinal research that controls for international changes in crime trends. In this study, we examine over 12 years of assault-related incidents in the state of Queensland, Australia. Controlling for deviations in trend for temperature and rainfall, we explore the relationship between violent crime and weather across Köppen climate classifications. Findings provide important insight into the impact of weather on violence across temperate, tropical, and arid climate regions.

Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Violent Crime

Existing research suggests that COVID-19 lockdowns tend to contribute to a decrease in overall urban crime rates. Most studies have compared pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to lockdown periods in Western cities. Few have touched on the fine variations during lockdowns. Equally rare are intracity studies conducted in China. This study tested the relationship between violent crime and COVID-19 lockdown policies in ZG City in southern China. The distance from the isolation location to the nearest violent crime site, called "the nearest crime distance", is a key variable in this study. Kernel density mapping and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are used to compare the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to the lockdown period. Panel logistic regression is used to test the fine variations among different stages during the lockdown. The result found an overall decline in violent crime during the lockdown and a bounce-back post-lockdown. Violent crime moved away from the isolation location during the lockdown. This outward spread continued for the first two months after the lifting of the lockdown, suggesting a lasting effect of the lockdown policy. During the lockdown, weekly changes in COVID-19 risk ratings at the district level in ZG City also affected changes in the nearest crime distance. In particular, an increase in the risk rating increased that distance, and a drop in the risk rating decreased that distance. These findings add new results to the literature and could have policy implications for joint crime and pandemic prevention and control.

The Effect of COVID-19 on Police Activities: Traffic Stops, Arrests, and Use of Force

COVID-19 may affect police activities (i.e., traffic stops, arrests, and use of force) due to public compliance with COVID-19 restrictions, changes in individuals’ daily activities, and health threats posed by COVID-19. The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of COVID-19 on police activities and the trends in these activities in Burlington, Vermont. The data that measured arrests, traffic stops, and use of force were obtained from the Burlington Police Department website and covered the period from December 10, 2018 through June 14, 2021. Then, the daily time-series data for arrest rate, use of force rate, and traffic stop rate were created (N = 918; 459 days pre-COVID-19 and 459 days during COVID-19). The results showed that COVID-19 statistically significantly increased traffic stops and arrests, but not use of force on the day immediately following the implementation of the COVID-19 restrictions and then remained stable over time. However, no significant change was detected in the trends of arrests, traffic stops, and use of force before and during the COVID-19 period. COVID-19 had a significant immediate and lasting effect on traffic stops and arrests, but not use of force.

Anti-social behaviour in the coronavirus pandemic

Anti-social behaviour recorded by police more than doubled early in the coronavirus pandemic in England and Wales. This was a stark contrast to the steep falls in most types of recorded crime. Why was ASB so different? Was it changes in 'traditional' ASB such as noisy neighbours, or was it ASB records of breaches of COVID-19 regulations? Further, why did police-recorded ASB find much larger early-pandemic increases than the Telephone Crime Survey for England and Wales? This study uses two approaches to address the issues. The first is a survey of police forces, via Freedom of Information requests, to determine whether COVID-regulation breaches were recorded as ASB. The second is natural language processing (NLP) used to interrogate the text details of police ASB records. We find police recording practice varied greatly between areas. We conclude that the early-pandemic increases in recorded ASB were primarily due to breaches of COVID regulations but around half of these also involved traditional forms of ASB. We also suggest that the study offers proof of concept that NLP may have significant general potential to exploit untapped police text records in ways that inform policing and crime policy.

Crime and deviance during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed the world and inevitably influenced people's behaviors including the likelihood of crime and deviance. Emerging empirical evidence suggests a decline in certain crimes (e.g., theft, robbery, and assault) but also proliferation of different violent behaviors and cybercriminal activity during the pandemic. To explain those trends, we draw on existent theories and elaborate on how crime and violence have been affected by the changes in people's daily routines and accumulated stressful conditions. However, as recent crime trends appear to be largely inconsistent and vary across social groups and contexts, we argue that social scientists need to pay particular attention to the differential experiences related to crime and violence during this global crisis. Specifically, because of the disproportionate experience of violence by vulnerable groups including minorities and women as well as the unique cross-national variations in deviance, more nuanced approaches to understanding causes of crime are warranted. We also discuss the limitations of present research and provide recommendations for the development of comparative and multi-disciplinary studies on criminal and deviant behaviors that are influenced by human crisis situations.

Drug markets and COVID-19: A spatiotemporal study of drug offence detection rates in Brisbane, Australia

In many parts of the world, the social mobility restrictions and stay-at-home orders introduced during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic have been associated with significant reductions in crime. However, contrary to this general finding, illicit drug offence detections increased significantly. In this study, we explore the geographical distribution of the increase in Queensland, Australia, using spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM) to identify locations in the Local Government Area (LGA) of Brisbane where drug offence detection rates were unusually high during the three months of the COVID-19 lockdown (April-June 2020). Contrary to expectation, we find that the increase in drug offence detection rates appears to have been modest in most places, but widespread and diffuse throughout the city. We conclude that drug offence detections are most likely to have increased incidentally, probably as a consequence of general street policing initiatives which saw an increase in the visibility and vulnerability of drug user communities. We do, however, identify several locations in Brisbane where the drug offence detection rate exceeded the prediction by a considerable margin (in one case, more than double the upper limit of the prediction). We argue that in these locations the increase was likely the result of some spatial displacement of inner-city drug markets coupled with a series of targeted policing activities. Further research is needed to clarify the true mechanism of change in these locations.

Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime

OBJECTIVES

The present study examines how varying levels of restrictions on the nightlife economy have impacted violent crime during the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent to which the crime preventive side-effects of restrictions are associated with the density of alcohol outlets.

METHODS

The Data stems from geocoded locations of violent crimes combined with data on the density of on-premises alcohol outlets and the level of COVID-19 restrictions in Copenhagen, Denmark. We use a negative binomial count model with cluster robust standard error to assess the effect of the interaction between alcohol outlet density and COVID-related restriction levels on the nightlife economy on the frequency of violent crime.

RESULTS

The article reveals how both the level of restrictions on the nightlife economy and the density of alcohol outlets significantly impacted the frequency of violent crime. The regression analysis shows that the effect of restrictions on the nightlife economy depends on the concentration of on-premises alcohol outlets in the area. In areas with a high concentration of outlets, we observe a much higher reduction in crime as consequence of the COVID-19 related restrictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The results shows that a more restricted nightlife economy, including earlier closing times, could have a crime preventive effect, especially in areas with a high density of alcohol outlets.

The impact of COVID-19 on the spatial distribution of shooting violence in Buffalo, NY

OBJECTIVES

This paper examines the extent to which hotspots of shooting violence changed following the emergence of COVID-19.

METHODS

This analysis uses Andresen's Spatial Point Pattern test on 1500 by 1500 foot grid cells, correcting for multiple comparisons, on a 10-year sample of geocoded shooting data from Buffalo New York.

RESULTS

This work finds zero micro-grid cells are not statistically different from pre to post COVID stay at home orders and instead that the observed rise in shootings in the sample appears to be a consistent proportional increase across the city.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide law enforcement with useful information about how to respond to the recent rise in shooting violence, but additional work is needed to better understand what, among a number of competing theories, is driving the increase.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11292-021-09497-4.

In a world called catastrophe: the impact of COVID-19 on neighbourhood level crime in Vancouver, Canada

OBJECTIVES

To test for statistically significant change in crime rates across neighbourhoods in Vancouver, Canada, resulting from social restrictions within the natural experiment of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Differential local Moran's I is used to identify statistically significant change in crime patterns across Vancouver's neighbourhoods because of COVID-19. These changes are analysed with variables from social disorganization theory constructs using ANOVA.

RESULTS

At the neighbourhood level, all crime types have significant change during COVID, but not always at the city level. Different neighbourhoods have different changes in crime despite these changes appearing to be constant at the city level; local effects asre important to consider. Variables representing the constructs of social disorganization theory are able to predict these changes.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 has changed the patterns of crime in Vancouver, but most often in theoretically expected ways. Local changes are critical to understand crime during a pandemic.

The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia

The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health calls for police service

Drawing upon seven years of police calls for service data (2014-2020), this study examined the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on calls involving persons with perceived mental illness (PwPMI) using a Bayesian Structural Time Series. The findings revealed that PwPMI calls did not increase immediately after the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Instead, a sustained increase in PwPMI calls was identified in August 2020 that later became statistically significant in October 2020. Ultimately, the analysis revealed a 22% increase in PwPMI calls during the COVID-19 pandemic than would have been expected had the pandemic not taken place. The delayed effect of the pandemic on such calls points to a need for policymakers to prioritize widely accessible mental health care that can be deployed early during public health emergencies thus potentially mitigating or eliminating the need for increased police intervention, as was the case here.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00157-6.

Crime under lockdown: The impact of COVID-19 on citizen security in the city of Buenos Aires

RESEARCH SUMMARY

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown on criminal activity in the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Following quarantine restrictions, we find a large, significant, robust, and immediate decline in property crime reported to official agencies, police arrests, and crime reported in victimization surveys. We observe no significant change in homicides, and a significant increase in arrests for "resistance to authorities". The decrease in criminal activity was greater in business and transportation areas, but still large in commercial and residential areas (including informal settlements). After the sharp and immediate fall, crime recovered but, by the end of 2020, it had not reached its initial levels. The arrest data additionally shows a reduction in the distance from the detainee's address to the crime location, and a fall in the number of detainees from outside the City of Buenos Aires. Crime became more local as mobility was restricted.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

We find no evidence that the reduction in the number of detainees from outside the City of Buenos Aires led to a displacement of crimeto suburban areas. This result aligns with the hypothesis that focalized place-based interventions have the potential to reduce overall crime rates. Moreover, the increase in arrests for "resistance to authorities" at the checkpoints set up during the lockdown shows that the enforcement of mobility restrictions can cause frictions between citizens and police, negatively affecting police's legitimacy. We also find that the increased government presence for the provision of health and social services in informal settlements during the pandemic led, as a positive externality, to an additional decrease in crime.

Life With Corona: Increased Gender Differences in Aggression and Depression Symptoms Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic Burden in Germany

Gender differences (GD) in mental health have come under renewed scrutiny during the COVID-19 pandemic. While rapidly emerging evidence indicates a deterioration of mental health in general, it remains unknown whether the pandemic will have an impact on GD in mental health. To this end, we investigate the association of the pandemic and its countermeasures affecting everyday life, labor, and households with changes in GD in aggression, anxiety, depression, and the somatic symptom burden. We analyze cross-sectional data from 10,979 individuals who live in Germany and who responded to the online survey "Life with Corona" between October 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. We estimate interaction effects from generalized linear models. The analyses reveal no pre-existing GD in aggression but exposure to COVID-19 and COVID-19 countermeasures is associated with sharper increases in aggression in men than in women. GD in anxiety decreased among participants with children in the household (with men becoming more anxious). We also observe pre-existing and increasing GD with regards to the severity of depression, with women presenting a larger increase in symptoms during the hard lockdown or with increasing stringency. In contrast to anxiety, GD in depression increased among participants who lived without children (women > men), but decreased for individuals who lived with children; here, men converged to the levels of depression presented by women. Finally, GD in somatic symptoms decreased during the hard lockdown (but not with higher stringency), with men showing a sharper increase in symptoms, especially when they lived with children or alone. Taken together, the findings indicate an increase in GD in mental health as the pandemic unfolded in Germany, with rising female vulnerability to depression and increasing male aggression. The combination of these two trends further suggests a worrying mental health situation for singles and families. Our results have important policy implications for the German health system and public health policy. This public health challenge requires addressing the rising burden of pandemic-related mental health challenges and the distribution of this burden between women and men, within families and for individuals who live alone.

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales

Purpose

The aim of this study is to examine small area variation in crime trajectories during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales. While we know how police-recorded crime responded to lockdown policies at the 'macro' level, less is known about the extent to which these trends were experienced uniformly at localized spatial scales.

Methods

Longitudinal k-means clustering is used to unpick local area variation in police notifiable offences across England and Wales. We describe the clusters identified in terms of their spatial patterning, opportunity structures and crime type profile.

Results

We find that in most small areas, crime remained fairly stable throughout the pandemic. Instead, a small number of meso-level areas contributed a disproportionately large amount to the macro-level trend. These were typically city centers with plentiful pre-pandemic crime opportunities, dominated by theft and shoplifting offences.

Conclusion

Findings offer support for opportunity theories of crime and for a mobility theory of crime during the pandemic. We explore potential implications for policy, theory and further research.

The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico's National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend-when the lockdown ends-crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

Six months in: pandemic crime trends in England and Wales

Governments around the world have enforced strict guidelines on social interaction and mobility to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Evidence has begun to emerge which suggests that such dramatic changes in people's routine activities have yielded similarly dramatic changes in criminal behavior. This study represents the first 'look back' on six months of the nationwide lockdown in England and Wales. Using open police-recorded crime trends, we provide a comparison between expected and observed crime rates for fourteen different offence categories between March and August, 2020. We find that most crime types experienced sharp, short-term declines during the first full month of lockdown. This was followed by a gradual resurgence as restrictions were relaxed. Major exceptions include anti-social behavior and drug crimes. Findings shed light on the opportunity structures for crime and the nuances of using police records to study crime during the pandemic.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00142-z.

Exploring regional variability in the short-term impact of COVID-19 on property crime in Queensland, Australia

Confronted by rapidly growing infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths, governments around the world have introduced stringent containment measures to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. This public health response has had an unprecedented impact on people's daily lives which, unsurprisingly, has also had widely observed implications in terms of crime and public safety. Drawing upon theories from environmental criminology, this study examines officially recorded property crime rates between March and June 2020 as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of property damage, shop theft, residential burglary, fraud, and motor vehicle theft rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March through to June. We conclude that, with the exception of fraud, all property offence categories declined significantly. For some offence types (shop stealing, other theft offences, and residential burglary), the decrease commenced as early as March. For other offence types, the decline was lagged and did not occur until April or May. Non-residential burglary was the only offence type to significantly increase, which it did in March, only to then decline significantly thereafter. These trends, while broadly consistent across the state's 77 local government areas still varied in meaningful ways and we discuss possible explanations and implications.