Systems thinking in combating infectious diseases

Combating COVID-19 health disparities in Black, Indigenous, and People of Colour Communities-A call for critical systems thinking

RATIONALE

The Black, Indigenous, and People of Colour populations in the United States are disproportionately affected by the emerging health threat SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of critical systems thinking by using scenario planning based on epidemiological data and tying epidemiology with soft systems methodology to investigate COVID-19 disparities among disproportionately affected Black, Indigenous, and People of Colour populations.

METHODS

Using a review of the COVID-19 literature and publicly available US COVID-19 data, critical systems thinking is applied in a scenario planning example and a call to link soft systems methodology with epidemiology.

RESULTS

According to the four plausible Endgame scenarios, levels of community transmission as well as the current state transmission are based on the driving forces of the scenarios. In addition, soft systems methodology explores the effect on stakeholders and strengthens the picture of disease burden beyond sole reliance on traditional data sources.

CONCLUSION

This analysis underscores employing critical systems thinking to critically assess diverse methods appropriate for the ongoing complexity of global crises. It is argued that critically engaged subjectivity should be given space alongside data-dependent objectivity. COVID-19 disparities are reliant on the social determinants of health's effects as driving forces on disease transmission in Black, Indigenous, and People of Colour populations. It is moreover argued that critical systems thinking is demonstrated by linking epidemiological evidence with scenario planning and soft systems methodology. This in turn supports a critical systems thinking approach to uncover the state of health disparities among minoritized communities under COVID-19.

Precision epidemiology at the nexus of mathematics and nanotechnology: Unraveling the dance of viral dynamics

The intersection of mathematical modeling, nanotechnology, and epidemiology marks a paradigm shift in our battle against infectious diseases, aligning with the focus of the journal on the regulation, expression, function, and evolution of genes in diverse biological contexts. This exploration navigates the intricate dance of viral transmission dynamics, highlighting mathematical models as dual tools of insight and precision instruments, a theme relevant to the diverse sections of Gene. In the context of virology, ethical considerations loom large, necessitating robust frameworks to protect individual rights, an aspect essential in infectious disease research. Global collaboration emerges as a critical pillar in our response to emerging infectious diseases, fortified by the predictive prowess of mathematical models enriched by nanotechnology. The synergy of interdisciplinary collaboration, training the next generation to bridge mathematical rigor, biology, and epidemiology, promises accelerated discoveries and robust models that account for real-world complexities, fostering innovation and exploration in the field. In this intricate review, mathematical modeling in viral transmission dynamics and epidemiology serves as a guiding beacon, illuminating the path toward precision interventions, global preparedness, and the collective endeavor to safeguard human health, resonating with the aim of advancing knowledge in gene regulation and expression.

An Overview of Malaria Transmission Mechanisms, Control, and Modeling

In sub-Saharan Africa, malaria is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity. As a result of the interplay between many factors, the control of this disease can be challenging. However, few studies have demonstrated malaria's complexity, control, and modeling although this perspective could lead to effective policy recommendations. This paper aims to be a didactic material providing the reader with an overview of malaria. More importantly, using a system approach lens, we intend to highlight the debated topics and the multifaceted thematic aspects of malaria transmission mechanisms, while showing the control approaches used as well as the model supporting the dynamics of malaria. As there is a large amount of information on each subject, we have attempted to provide a basic understanding of malaria that needs to be further developed. Nevertheless, this study illustrates the importance of using a multidisciplinary approach to designing next-generation malaria control policies.

Positioning zoonotic disease research in forced migration: A systematic literature review of theoretical frameworks and approaches

BACKGROUND

The emergence and transmission of zoonotic diseases are driven by complex interactions between health, environmental, and socio-political systems. Human movement is considered a significant and increasing factor in these processes, yet forced migration remains an understudied area of zoonotic research-due in part to the complexity of conducting interdisciplinary research in these settings.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review to identify and analyze theoretical frameworks and approaches used to study linkages between forced migration and zoonotic diseases.

METHODS

We searched within eight electronic databases: ProQuest, SCOPUS, Web of Science, PubMed, PLoSOne, Science Direct, JSTOR, and Google Scholar, to identify a) research articles focusing on zoonoses considering forced migrants in their study populations, and b) forced migration literature which engaged with zoonotic disease. Both authors conducted a full-text review, evaluating the quality of literature reviews and primary data using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) model, while theoretical papers were evaluated for quality using a theory synthesis adapted from Bonell et al. (2013). Qualitative data were synthesized thematically according to the method suggested by Noblit and Hare (1988).

RESULTS

Analyses of the 23 included articles showed the increasing use of interdisciplinary frameworks and approaches over time, the majority of which stemmed from political ecology. Approaches such as EcoHealth and One Health were increasingly popular, but were more often linked to program implementation and development than broader contextual research. The majority of research failed to acknowledge the heterogeneity of migrant populations, lacked contextual depth, and insufficient acknowledgments of migrant agency in responding to zoonotic threats.

CONCLUSIONS

Addressing the emergence and spread of zoonoses in forced migration contexts requires more careful consideration and use of interdisciplinary research to integrate the contributions of social and natural science approaches. Robust interdisciplinary theoretical frameworks are an important step for better understanding the complex health, environment, and socio-political drivers of zoonotic diseases in forced migration. Lessons can be learned from the application of these approaches in other hard-to-reach or seldom-heard populations.

'Back to better': amplifying health equity, and determinants of health perspectives during the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

Equity and social justice have long been key tenets of health promotion practice, policy and research. Health promotion foregrounds the pertinence of social, economic, cultural, political and spiritual life in creating and maintaining health. This necessitates a critical structural determinants of health perspective that actively engages with the experiences of health and wellbeing among diverse peoples. The inequitable impacts of pandemics are well documented, as are calls for improved pandemic responses. Yet, current pandemic and emergency preparedness plans do not adequately account for the social and structural determinants of health and health equity.

METHODS

Through five one-hour online conversations held in April 2020, we engaged 13 practice, policy, research and community leaders on the intersections of COVID-19 and gender, racism, homelessness, Indigenous health and knowledge, household food insecurity, disability, ethics and equitable futures post-COVID-19. We conducted a thematic analysis of speaker and participant contributions to investigate the impacts and influence of COVID-19 related to the structural and social determinants of health. We analyzed which policies, practices and responses amplified or undermined equity and social justice and identified opportunities for improved action.

FINDINGS

Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic revealed four broad themes:• oppressive, unjust systems and existing health and social inequities;• health and social systems under duress and non-responsive to equity;• disproportionate impacts of COVID-19 driven by underlying structural and socioeconomic inequity; and• enhanced momentum for collective mobilization, policy innovations and social transformation.

DISCUSSION

There was a strong desire for a more just and equitable society in a post-COVID-19 world, going 'back to better' rather than 'back to normal.' Our analysis demonstrates that equity has not been well integrated into pandemic planning and responses. Social movement and systems theories provide insight on ways to build on existing community mobilization and policy openings for sustained social transformation.

Systemic Management of Pandemic Risks in Dental Practice: A Consolidated Framework for COVID-19 Control in Dentistry

Dental teams and their workplaces are among the most exposed to airborne and bloodborne infectious agents, and therefore at the forefront of pandemic-related changes to how dental care is organized and provided to patients. The increasing complexity of guidelines makes is challenging for clinicians to navigate the multitude of COVID-19 guidelines issued by different agencies. A comparative analysis of guidance issued for managing COVID-19 in dental settings leading U.S. agencies was conducted, including documents of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), an agency of the U.S. Secretary of Labor, and of the U.S. Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), an agency of the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services. Details of infection control and other risk mitigation measures were reviewed for consistency, overlaps and similarities, then clustered according to thematic areas covering all domains of managing a dental healthcare setting. The analysis revealed five distinct areas of pandemic control, comprising (1) planning and protocols, (2) patient screening, (3) preparation of facilities, (4) PPE and infection control, and (5) procedures and aerosol control; thereby covering systematically all aspects requiring adaptation in a pandemic context. The "Pandemic-5 Framework for COVID-19 Control in Dentistry" provides an opportunity to simplify comprehensive decision-making from a clinical practitioner perspective. The framework supports a comprehensive systems-driven approach by using dental clinics as a setting to integrate pandemic clinical responses with the implementation of appropriate infection control protocols. Traditionally these two aspects are addressed independently from each other in separate concepts.

Inference and prediction of malaria transmission dynamics using time series data

BACKGROUND

Disease surveillance systems are essential for effective disease intervention and control by monitoring disease prevalence as time series. To evaluate the severity of an epidemic, statistical methods are widely used to forecast the trend, seasonality, and the possible number of infections of a disease. However, most statistical methods are limited in revealing the underlying dynamics of disease transmission, which may be affected by various impact factors, such as environmental, meteorological, and physiological factors. In this study, we focus on investigating malaria transmission dynamics based on time series data.

METHODS

A data-driven nonlinear stochastic model is proposed to infer and predict the dynamics of malaria transmission based on the time series of prevalence data. Specifically, the dynamics of malaria transmission is modeled based on the notion of vectorial capacity (VCAP) and entomological inoculation rate (EIR). A particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Accordingly, a one-step-ahead prediction method is proposed to project the number of future malaria infections. Finally, two case studies are carried out on the inference and prediction of Plasmodium vivax transmission in Tengchong and Longling, Yunnan province, China.

RESULTS

The results show that the trained data-driven stochastic model can well fit the historical time series of P. vivax prevalence data in both counties from 2007 to 2010. Moreover, with well-trained model parameters, the proposed one-step-ahead prediction method can achieve better performances than that of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with respect to predicting the number of future malaria infections.

CONCLUSIONS

By involving dynamically changing impact factors, the proposed data-driven model together with the PMCMC method can successfully (i) depict the dynamics of malaria transmission, and (ii) achieve accurate one-step-ahead prediction about malaria infections. Such a data-driven method has the potential to investigate malaria transmission dynamics in other malaria-endemic countries/regions.

Transdisciplinary and social-ecological health frameworks-Novel approaches to emerging parasitic and vector-borne diseases

Ecosystem Health, Conservation Medicine, EcoHealth, One Health, Planetary Health and GeoHealth are inter-related disciplines that underpin a shared understanding of the functional prerequisites of health, sustainable vitality and wellbeing. All of these are based on recognition that health interconnects species across the planet, and they offer ways to more effectively tackle complex real-world challenges. Herein we present a bibliometric analysis to document usage of a subset of such terms by journals over time. We also provide examples of parasitic and vector-borne diseases, including malaria, toxoplasmosis, baylisascariasis, and Lyme disease. These and many other diseases have persisted, emerged or re-emerged, and caused great harm to human and animal populations in developed and low income, biodiverse nations around the world, largely because of societal drivers that undermined natural processes of disease prevention and control, which had developed through co-evolution over millennia. Shortcomings in addressing drivers has arisen from a lack or coordinated efforts among researchers, health stewards, societies at large, and governments. Fortunately, specialists collaborating under transdisciplinary and socio-ecological health umbrellas are increasingly integrating established and new techniques for disease modeling, prediction, diagnosis, treatment, control, and prevention. Such approaches often emphasize conservation of biodiversity for health protection, and they provide novel opportunities to increase the efficiency and probability of success.

Role of ecological approaches to eliminating schistosomiasis in Eryuan County evaluated by system modelling

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis was severely prevalent in Yunnan Province, and it is difficult to achieve its elimination by convention approaches due to complexity of the nature. We explored the comprehensive model to eliminate schistosomiasis in Eryuan County, Yunnan Province, the People's Republic of China, through integration with the ecological protection programme in Erhai Lake, in order to promote an efficient elimination strategy. We expected that this model is able to be tailored to other local settings, which help achieve the goal of precisely eliminating the disease in Yunnan Province.

METHODS

Eryuan County of Yunnan Province was chosen as the study area, where the data on environmental protection activities in Erhai Lake and on the schistosomiasis control programme were collected through different departments of Erhai County government since 2015. System modelling was performed using system dynamics software to establish a simulation model in order to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention activities.

RESULTS

Ecological approaches to control schistosomiasis in Eryuan County consist of three major components: (i) implementing precise interventions to stop schistosomiasis transmission by means of controlling the source of infection, blocking the biological transmission chains and cutting off the route of disease transmission; (ii) employing ecological approaches to improve the co-effectiveness of environmental protection and schistosomiasis prevention in the study area; and (iii) strengthening the professional skills of personnel involving in the schistosomiasis control programme. Simulation results showed that this strategy could speed up the progress of schistosomiasis control programme moving from the control stage to the elimination stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Ecological approaches implemented in schistosomiasis endemic areas of the Eryuan region are able to improve the co-effectiveness of environmental protection and schistosomiasis control, providing a new avenue for eliminating schistosomiasis thanks to the application of precise interventions.