A potential transition from a concentrated to a generalized HIV epidemic: the case of Madagascar

Patterns of Rising HIV Positivity in Northern Madagascar: Evidence of an Urgent Public Health Concern

Despite over two decades of progress against HIV/AIDS in adjacent sub-Saharan Africa, HIV rates and deaths due to AIDS are exponentially rising in Madagascar. Furthermore, a growing body of evidence suggests that, due to a scarcity of general-population screening data, even the startling increase demonstrated by official models vastly underestimates the true population prevalence of HIV. We aimed to implement a real-world HIV screening and treatment protocol to serve a general population stemming from across northern Madagascar. In collaboration with the Malagasy Ministry of Health, we provided point-of-care HIV screening and confirmatory testing for over 1000 participants from 73 towns, villages, and cities. We recorded an overall HIV prevalence of 2.94%. Notably, we observed a 13.1% HIV prevalence rate among urban populations and showed that proximity to a major route of travel was significantly associated with HIV risk. We also observed a link between HIV risk and various occupations, including those associated with increased mobility (such as mining). Importantly, all HIV-positive individuals were initiated on antiretroviral therapy in concordance with local health authorities. To our knowledge, this study marks the largest primary test data-based HIV study to date among Madagascar's general population, showing a greatly higher HIV prevalence (2.9%) than previously reported modeling-based figures (0.4%). Our rates aligned with the pattern of higher prevalence demonstrated in smaller general-population screening studies occurring more commonly prior to political strife in the mid-2000s. These findings demonstrate evidence of a growing HIV epidemic in northern Madagascar and underscore the need for future investment into more comprehensive HIV screening and control initiatives in Madagascar.