Predicting the development of schizophrenia in high-risk populations: systematic review of the predictive validity of prodromal criteria

Prodromal or Factitious Psychosis: A Cautionary Tale in the Era of Increasing Social Media Use by Vulnerable Individuals

Research on the prodromal phase of schizophrenia has been ongoing for several decades and, more recently, findings from this research are being incorporated into everyday psychiatric practice, such as the use of interviews to evaluate prodromal symptomatology. This evolution is happening in the midst of an explosion of social media use by teenagers and young adults, increasing the exposure of youth to portrayals of psychiatric experiences. For example, reports from around the world of "TIK-TOK tics" emphasize the role of social media in the "creation" of psychiatric symptoms. This case report highlights the importance of a full psychiatric evaluation in acute care settings where quick treatment of psychotic symptoms is the norm. A 15-year-old patient was initially diagnosed with prodromal schizophrenia but, after a more extensive evaluation during a second admission, she was diagnosed with borderline personality disorder. Her antipsychotic treatment regimen was stopped and appropriate education and treatment were started, without the recurrence of "psychotic symptoms" during follow-up. It may be that patients with borderline personality disorder, a frequent condition on inpatient units, are at particular risk of assimilating symptoms as represented on social media.

The Actigraphy-Based Identification of Premorbid Latent Liability of Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

(1) Background and Goal: Several studies have investigated the association of sleep, diurnal patterns, and circadian rhythms with the presence and with the risk states of mental illnesses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The goal of our study was to examine actigraphic measures to identify features that can be extracted from them so that a machine learning model can detect premorbid latent liabilities for schizotypy and bipolarity. (2) Methods: Our team developed a small wrist-worn measurement device that collects and identifies actigraphic data based on an accelerometer. The sensors were used by carefully selected healthy participants who were divided into three groups: Control Group (C), Cyclothymia Factor Group (CFG), and Positive Schizotypy Factor Group (PSF). From the data they collected, our team performed data cleaning operations and then used the extracted metrics to generate the feature combinations deemed most effective, along with three machine learning algorithms for categorization. (3) Results: By conducting the training, we were able to identify a set of mildly correlated traits and their order of importance based on the Shapley value that had the greatest impact on the detection of bipolarity and schizotypy according to the logistic regression, Light Gradient Boost, and Random Forest algorithms. (4) Conclusions: These results were successfully compared to the results of other researchers; we had a similar differentiation in features used by others, and successfully developed new ones that might be a good complement for further research. In the future, identifying these traits may help us identify people at risk from mental disorders early in a cost-effective, automated way.

Developing a clinical decision tool based on electroretinogram to monitor the risk of severe mental illness

BACKGROUND

We have shown that electroretinograms can discriminate between patients with severe mental illness (SMI) and healthy controls in previous studies. We now intend to enhance the development and clinical utility of ERG as a biological tool to monitor the risk of SMI.

METHODOLOGY

A sample of 301 SMI patients (bipolar disorder or schizophrenia) and 200 controls was first split into a training (N = 401) and testing dataset (N = 100). A logistic regression using ERG was modeled in the training data, while external validation and discriminative ability were assessed in the testing data. A decision curve analysis was used to test clinical usefulness. Moreover, the identification of thresholds of uncertainty based on the two-graph ROC and the interval of uncertainty was used to enhance prediction.

RESULTS

The discriminative assessment of the ERG showed very high sensitivity (91%) and specificity (89%) after considering uncertainty levels. Furthermore, for prediction probabilities ranging from 0.14 to 0.95 in the testing data, the net benefit of using our ERG model to decide whether to intervene or not exceeded that of never or always intervening.

CONCLUSION

The ERG predicted SMI risk with a high level of accuracy when uncertainty was accounted for. This study further supports the potential of ERG to become a useful clinical decision tool to decide the course of action for subjects at risk of SMI. However, further investigation is still needed in longitudinal studies to assess the external validity of the instrument.

Large-scale real-world data analysis identifies comorbidity patterns in schizophrenia

Schizophrenia affects >3.2 million people in the USA. However, its comorbidity patterns have not been systematically characterized in real-world populations. To address this gap, we conducted an observational study using a cohort of 86 million patients in a nationwide health insurance dataset. We identified participants with schizophrenia and those without schizophrenia matched by age, sex, and the first three digits of zip code. For each phenotype encoded in phecodes, we compared their prevalence in schizophrenia patients and the matched non-schizophrenic participants, and we performed subgroup analyses stratified by age and sex. Results show that anxiety, posttraumatic stress disorder, and substance abuse commonly occur in adolescents and young adults prior to schizophrenia diagnoses. Patients aged 60 and above are at higher risks of developing delirium, alcoholism, dementia, pelvic fracture, and osteomyelitis than their matched controls. Type 2 diabetes, sleep apnea, and eating disorders were more prevalent in women prior to schizophrenia diagnosis, whereas acute renal failure, rhabdomyolysis, and developmental delays were found at higher rates in men. Anxiety and obesity are more commonly seen in patients with schizoaffective disorders compared to patients with other types of schizophrenia. Leveraging a large-scale insurance claims dataset, this study identified less-known comorbidity patterns of schizophrenia and confirmed known ones. These comorbidity profiles can guide clinicians and researchers to take heed of early signs of co-occurring diseases.

Economic burden to commercial payers of young adults with schizophrenia in Colorado

AIMS

The primary objective was to examine direct costs and health resource utilization (HRU) among commercially insured young adults with schizophrenia (SCZ) in Colorado.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Colorado All-Payer Claims Database, covering approximately 76% of the insured Colorado population was used. Members aged 18-34, with and without SCZ, having commercial insurance were included. All-cause, mental health (MH) related and non-MH related per patient per month (PPPM) costs and per hundred patients per month (PHPPM) HRU were compared between an SCZ cohort and a propensity score matched non-SCZ cohort before and after index date up to 48 months.

RESULTS

Five hundred and one patients with SCZ and 2,510 matched individuals without SCZ were included. HRU and costs were higher for SCZ patients both pre- and post-index date. Pre-index, there were 32.3 (24.0 MH; 8.4 non-MH) PHPPM more office visits; 2.1 (2.7 MH) PHPPM more admissions; 104.8 (67.02 MH; 37.7 non-MH) PHPPM more prescriptions in the SCZ cohort (all p<.01). After index date, the SCZ cohort had 89.6 (81.3 MH; 9.2 non-MH) more PHPPM office visits, 7.2 (6.1 MH; 0.9 non-MH) PHPPM more admissions, and 181.6 (123.1 MH; 58.6 non-MH) PHPPM more prescriptions (all p<.001). All-cause costs in the pre-index period were $457 PPPM ($373 MH) higher for the SCZ cohort (p<.001). In the post-index period, all-cause costs for the SCZ cohort were $1,687 PPPM ($1,258 MH; $412 non-MH) higher (all p<.001). Approximately, 40% of patients with SCZ were on commercial insurance after four years compared with approximately 75% in the non-SCZ cohort.

LIMITATIONS

This study was based on data from a single state, thus may not be generalizable to other states.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare costs and HRU for young adults diagnosed with SCZ are significantly more burdensome to commercial payers than matched patients without SCZ, both before and after an official SCZ diagnosis.

Basic symptoms in young people at ultra-high risk of psychosis: Association with clinical characteristics and outcomes

There has been limited research into the predictive value of basic symptoms and their relationship with other psychopathology in patients identified using the 'ultra high risk' (UHR) for psychosis approach. The current study investigated whether basic symptoms, specifically cognitive disturbances (COGDIS), were associated with a greater risk of transition to psychotic disorder and persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) at medium term follow-up (mean = 3.4 years) in UHR patients, as well as with general psychopathology at baseline. The sample included 304 UHR participants (mean age = 19.12 years) involved in an international multicenter trial of omega-3 fatty acids. UHR individuals who also met the COGDIS criteria (basic symptoms risk criteria) did not have a greater risk of transition than those who met the UHR criteria alone. However, meeting COGDIS risk criteria was associated with a greater likelihood of meeting the UHR attenuated psychotic symptoms risk group (i.e., having persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms) at 12-month follow-up (odds ratio = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.03, 3.32). Greater severity of cognitive basic symptoms was also independently associated with more severe general psychopathology at study entry. The findings do not support the notion that combined risk identification approaches (UHR and basic symptoms) aid in the identification of individuals at greatest risk of psychosis, although this interpretation is limited by the modest transition to psychosis rate (13%) and the time of follow up. However, the findings indicate that basic symptoms may be a clinically useful marker of more severe general psychopathology in UHR groups and risk for persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms.

Sensory characteristics of youth at clinical high risk for psychosis

AIM

To identify and compare the sensory characteristics of young people at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis to those of peers at clinical low risk (CLR), and to national normative data. CHR and CLR participants were recruited from 6 US regions.

METHOD

A descriptive cohort design was used to analyse baseline data collected as part of the Early Detection and Intervention for the Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP). Raw scores on the Adolescent/Adult Sensory Profile (AASP) were analysed for 205 young people with CHR and 87 with CLR in 2 age groups: 12 to 17 years (N = 203) and 18 to 25 years (N = 89). ANOVA procedures were used to determine whether differences in AASP scores existed across CLR, CHR, and normative groups by age group.

RESULTS

CHR participants differed significantly from the normative group for all 4 AASP quadrant scores (Low Registration, Sensory Seeking, Sensory Sensitivity and Sensory Avoiding) in both age groups. CLR participants were similar to norms, except for Sensory Seeking scores that were significantly lower than norms in both age ranges.

CONCLUSION

Young people with CHR demonstrate active avoidance, heightened sensitivity, reduced seeking, and reduced registration of sensations in everyday life compared to typical peers. This pattern of differences may be a valuable marker for identifying individuals who are at high risk for developing a psychotic illness, and may also inform interventions designed to prevent or minimize the illness process and accompanying dysfunction.

Translation and validation study of the prodromal questionnaire brief version into Indonesian language

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Psychosis is a mental disorder resulting in high disability impacts. Many studies show that early detection of prodromal symptoms may improve prognosis. Psychotic prodromal symptoms may mimic other mental health conditions such as depression, anxiety or learning difficulties. The aim of this study was to analyze validity, reliability, sensitivity and specificity of the Prodromal Questionnaire Brief Version (PQ-B) Indonesian version to detect psychotic prodromal symptoms.

METHOD

The PQ-B was translated into Indonesian then back-translated into English. Subjects included in this study were 50 children and adolescent psychiatric patients from Cipto Mangunkusumo National Hospital, aged 10-18 years old. Validity measurement was performed by comparing the total score and distress score of PQ-B with the categorical scale of Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms (SIPS) as the gold standard using Spearman correlation. Total scale and subscale reliability were examined using the Cronbach's Alpha.

RESULTS

Analysis with Spearman correlation showed significant results of both PQ-B total score with diagnosis of SIPS (r = 0.374 and p = 0.007); and PQ-B distress score with diagnosis of SIPS (r = 0.400 and p = 0.004). Cronbach Alpha coefficient was equal to 0.853 for all scales. The sensitivity of the PQ-B in the Indonesian language is 70%, and the specificity is 72%, whereas, in the original language (English), the sensitivity and specificity is 88% and 68%.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence of good validity, reliability, sensitivity, and specificity of PQ-B Indonesian language to detect prodromal symptoms of those who seek help in the psychiatric outpatient clinic.

Prediction of transition from ultra-high risk to first-episode psychosis using a probabilistic model combining history, clinical assessment and fatty-acid biomarkers

Current criteria identifying patients with ultra-high risk of psychosis (UHR) have low specificity, and less than one-third of UHR cases experience transition to psychosis within 3 years of initial assessment. We explored whether a Bayesian probabilistic multimodal model, combining baseline historical and clinical risk factors with biomarkers (oxidative stress, cell membrane fatty acids, resting quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG)), could improve this specificity. We analyzed data of a UHR cohort (n=40) with a 1-year transition rate of 28%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated for predictor variables with statistically significant receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), which excluded oxidative stress markers and qEEG parameters as significant predictors of transition. We clustered significant variables into historical (history of drug use), clinical (Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale positive, negative and general scores and Global Assessment of Function) and biomarker (total omega-3, nervonic acid) groups, and calculated the post-test probability of transition for each group and for group combinations using the odds ratio form of Bayes' rule. Combination of the three variable groups vastly improved the specificity of prediction (area under ROC=0.919, sensitivity=72.73%, specificity=96.43%). In this sample, our model identified over 70% of UHR patients who transitioned within 1 year, compared with 28% identified by standard UHR criteria. The model classified 77% of cases as very high or low risk (P>0.9, <0.1) based on history and clinical assessment, suggesting that a staged approach could be most efficient, reserving fatty-acid markers for 23% of cases remaining at intermediate probability following bedside interview.

Emotional Experiences Predict the Conversion of Individuals with Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome to Psychosis: A 6-Month Follow up Study

The present study explored the conversion rate in individuals with Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (APS) and potential predictor for transition in mainland China. Sixty-three participants identified as APS were followed up 6 months later. The results showed that 17% of individuals with APS converted to full-blown psychosis. The converters exhibited significantly poorer emotional experience and expression than the non-converters at baseline. A further binary logistic regression analysis showed that emotional experience could predict the transition (Wald = 4.18, p = 0.041, 95% CI = 1.04~6.82). The present study suggests an important role of emotional processing in the prediction of the development of full-blown psychosis.

The use of clinical and biological characteristics to predict outcome following First Episode Psychosis

OBJECTIVE

Psychotic illnesses such as schizophrenia and other non-affective psychoses are heterogeneous in disease course and functional outcomes. We review evidence from investigations in clinical psychiatry, neuroimaging, neurocognition, and blood biomarker research suggesting that distinct bio-psycho-social patterns exist at the onset and during the early phase of a First Episode Psychosis (FEP), which can describe the risk of individual illness progression and functional trajectories.

METHOD

A selective literature review was performed on articles drawn from Medline searches for relevant key words. A simulation model was constructed from data derived from two recent publications, selected as examples of studies that investigated multivariate predictors of long-term outcome following FEP.

RESULTS

We illustrate how illness trajectories following FEP could be described based on multimodal sociodemographic, clinical, psychological, and neurobiological information. A clinical modeling simulation shows thatrisk trajectories for achieving long-term favorable or unfavorable outcomes can differ significantly depending on baseline characteristics in combination with MRI and functional measurements within 6 months of disease onset.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimodal trajectory modeling may be useful to describe longitudinal outcomes following FEP. Richlongitudinal data on predictors and outcomes, and better integration of multimodal (sociodemographic, clinical, psychological, biological) data, are required to operationalize this approach. This technique may improve our understanding of course of illness and help to provide a more personalized approach to the assessment and treatment of people presenting with FEP.

How much do we know about schizophrenia and how well do we know it? Evidence from the Schizophrenia Library

BACKGROUND

True findings about schizophrenia remain elusive; many findings are not replicated and conflicting results are common. Well-conducted systematic reviews have the ability to make robust, generalizable conclusions, with good meta-analyses potentially providing the closest estimate of the true effect size. In this paper, we undertake a systematic approach to synthesising the available evidence from well-conducted systematic reviews on schizophrenia.

METHOD

Reviews were identified by searching Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Current Contents and PsycINFO. The decision to include or exclude reviews, data extraction and quality assessments were conducted in duplicate. Evidence was graded as high quality if reviews contained large samples and robust results; and as moderate quality if reviews contained imprecision, inconsistency, smaller samples or study designs that may be prone to bias.

RESULTS

High- and moderate-quality evidence shows that numerous psychosocial and biomedical treatments are effective. Patients have relatively poor cognitive functioning, and subtle, but diverse, structural brain alterations, altered electrophysiological functioning and sleep patterns, minor physical anomalies, neurological soft signs, and sensory alterations. There are markers of infection, inflammation or altered immunological parameters; and there is increased mortality from a range of causes. Risk for schizophrenia is increased with cannabis use, pregnancy and birth complications, prenatal exposure to Toxoplasma gondii, childhood central nervous system viral infections, childhood adversities, urbanicity and immigration (first and second generation), particularly in certain ethnic groups. Developmental motor delays and lower intelligence quotient in childhood and adolescence are apparent.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that while our knowledge of schizophrenia is very substantial, our understanding of it remains limited.

Towards indicated prevention of psychosis: using probabilistic assessments of transition risk in psychosis prodrome

The concept of indicated prevention has proliferated in psychiatry, and accumulating evidence suggests that it may indeed be possible to prevent or delay the onset of a first episode of psychosis though adequate interventions in individuals deemed at clinical high risk (CHR) for such an event. One challenge undermining these efforts is the relatively poor predictive accuracy of clinical assessments used in practice for CHR individuals, often leading to diagnostic and therapeutic uncertainty reflected in clinical guidelines promoting a 'watch and wait' approach to CHR patients. Using data from published studies, and employing predictive models based on the odds-ratio form of Bayes' rule, we simulated scenarios where clinical interview, neurocognitive testing, structural magnetic resonance imaging and electrophysiology are part of the initial assessment process of a CHR individual (extended diagnostic approach). Our findings indicate that for most at-risk patients, at least three of these assessments are necessary to arrive at a clinically meaningful differentiation into high- intermediate-, and low-risk groups. In particular, patients with equivocal results in the initial assessments require additional diagnostic testing to produce an accurate risk profile forming part of the comprehensive initial assessment. The findings may inform future research into reliable identification and personalized therapeutic targeting of CHR patients, to prevent transition to full-blown psychosis.

Applications of blood-based protein biomarker strategies in the study of psychiatric disorders

Major psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia, major depressive and bipolar disorders are severe, chronic and debilitating, and are associated with high disease burden and healthcare costs. Currently, diagnoses of these disorders rely on interview-based assessments of subjective self-reported symptoms. Early diagnosis is difficult, misdiagnosis is a frequent occurrence and there are no objective tests that aid in the prediction of individual responses to treatment. Consequently, validated biomarkers are urgently needed to help address these unmet clinical needs. Historically, psychiatric disorders are viewed as brain disorders and consequently only a few researchers have as yet evaluated systemic changes in psychiatric patients. However, promising research has begun to challenge this concept and there is an increasing awareness that disease-related changes can be traced in the peripheral system which may even be involved in the precipitation of disease onset and course. Converging evidence from molecular profiling analysis of blood serum/plasma have revealed robust molecular changes in psychiatric patients, suggesting that these disorders may be detectable in other systems of the body such as the circulating blood. In this review, we discuss the current clinical needs in psychiatry, highlight the importance of biomarkers in the field, and review a representative selection of biomarker studies to highlight opportunities for the implementation of personalized medicine approaches in the field of psychiatry. It is anticipated that the implementation of validated biomarker tests will not only improve the diagnosis and more effective treatment of psychiatric patients, but also improve prognosis and disease outcome.

Prediction and prevention of the first psychotic episode: new directions and opportunities

In the last few decades, substantial research has focused on the possibility of early detection and prevention of the first psychotic episode in young individuals at risk of developing this mental disturbance; however, unresolved clinical and ethical issues still call for further investigations. New perspectives and opportunities may come from the identification of selective psychopathological and instrumental markers linking the appearance of subtle psychotic symptoms with the clinical outcome of specific mental pathologies. Furthermore, empirically derived algorithms and risk staging models should facilitate the identification of targeted prevention therapies, possibly improving the efficacy of well-tolerated therapeutic approaches, such as psychological interventions and natural compound supplementations. To date, the collected evidence on the efficacy and tolerability of pharmacological prevention therapies raises more doubts than hopes. A very early detection of risk and appropriate symptomatic pattern classifications may provide a chance to better match prevention strategies with the development of psychosis.

Cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis prevention: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinical equipoise regarding preventative treatments for psychosis has encouraged the development and evaluation of psychosocial treatments, such as cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT).

METHOD

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted, examining the evidence for the effectiveness of CBT-informed treatment for preventing psychosis in people who are not taking antipsychotic medication, when compared to usual or non-specific control treatment. Included studies had to meet basic quality criteria, such as concealed and random allocation to treatment groups.

RESULTS

Our search produced 1940 titles, out of which we found seven completed trials (six published). The relative risk (RR) of developing psychosis was reduced by more than 50% for those receiving CBT at every time point [RR at 6 months 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.27-0.82, p = 0.008 (fixed-effects only: six randomized controlled trials (RCTs), n = 800); RR at 12 months 0.45, 95% CI 0.28-0.73, p = 0.001 (six RCTs, n = 800); RR at 18-24 months 0.41, 95% CI 0.23-0.72, p = 0.002 (four RCTs, n = 452)]. Heterogeneity was low in every analysis and the results were largely robust to the risk of an unpublished 12-month study having unfavourable results. CBT was also associated with reduced subthreshold symptoms at 12 months, but not at 6 or 18-24 months. No effects on functioning, symptom-related distress or quality of life were observed. CBT was not associated with increased rates of clinical depression or social anxiety (two studies).

CONCLUSIONS

CBT-informed treatment is associated with a reduced risk of transition to psychosis at 6, 12 and 18-24 months, and reduced symptoms at 12 months. Methodological limitations and recommendations for trial reporting are discussed.

Conceptual issues in the classification of psychosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide an update on the conceptual status of attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS) as a psychiatric disorder.

RECENT FINDINGS

In May 2012, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) Task Force announced that the planned introduction of APS as a new diagnosis in DSM-5 was cancelled and that APS was being moved to 'Section III' of the manual as a diagnostic construct requiring more work. Recent studies of APS have reflected this uncertainty and debate over its validity.

SUMMARY

Before and after the decision in May 2012 to remove APS as a new diagnosis in DSM-5, scientific work has proceeded in a robust manner to shore up the validity of APS as a diagnostic construct. Recent work on APS has revolved around a series of unresolved questions: the actual incidence of conversion of APS to full-blown psychosis, the identification of the subgroup that will convert, the appropriate treatment for APS, the ability of treatment to prevent conversion to psychosis, the wide range of long-term outcomes of APS and finally the decision whether to include APS as a formal psychiatric diagnosis. Although the debate continues, a substantial number of the major researchers have argued that APS does not yet enjoy a degree of validity that warrants inclusion as a formal diagnosis.

Emerging psychosis and the family

Schizophrenias hold a special position among psychotic disorders. Schizophrenias often start in early adulthood and bear considerable psychosocial risks and consequences. Several years of nonpsychotic clinical signs and symptoms and growing distress for patient and significant others may pass by before definite diagnosis. Young males in particular often experience their first episode while still living in their primary families. Thus, the whole family system is involved. In worldwide initiatives on early detection and early intervention, near-psychotic prodromal symptoms as well as deficits of thought and perception, observable by the affected person himself, were found to be particularly predictive of psychosis. Various psychological and social barriers as well as ones inherent to the disease impede access to affected persons. Building trust and therapeutic alliance are extremely important for counseling, diagnostics, and therapy. The indication for strategies of intervention differs from the early to the late prodromal stage, depending on proximity to psychosis. For psychotherapy versus pharmacotherapy, the first evidence of effectiveness has been provided. A false-positive referral to treatment and other ethical concerns must be weighed against the risks of delayed treatment.