Contrasting cognitive trajectories of impending death and preclinical dementia in the very old

Place of care in the last three years of life for Medicare beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Most older adults prefer aging in place; however, patients with advanced illness often need institutional care. Understanding place of care trajectory patterns may inform patient-centered care planning and health policy decisions. The purpose of this study was to characterize place of care trajectories during the last three years of life.

METHODS

Linked administrative, claims, and assessment data were analyzed for a 10% random sample cohort of US Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2018, aged fifty or older, and continuously enrolled in Medicare during their last five years of life. A group-based trajectory modeling approach was used to classify beneficiaries based on the proportion of days of institutional care (hospital inpatient or skilled nursing facility) and skilled home care (home health care and home hospice) used in each quarter of the last three years of life. Associations between group membership and sociodemographic and clinical predictors were evaluated.

RESULTS

The analytic cohort included 199,828 Medicare beneficiaries. Nine place of care trajectory groups were identified, which were categorized into three clusters: home, skilled home care, and institutional care. Over half (59%) of the beneficiaries were in the home cluster, spending their last three years mostly at home, with skilled home care and institutional care use concentrated in the final quarter of life. One-quarter (27%) of beneficiaries were in the skilled home care cluster, with heavy use of skilled home health care and home hospice; the remaining 14% were in the institutional cluster, with heavy use of nursing home and inpatient care. Factors associated with both the skilled home care and institutional care clusters were female sex, Black race, a diagnosis of dementia, and Medicaid insurance. Extended use of skilled home care was more prevalent in southern states, and extended institutional care was more prevalent in midwestern states.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified distinct patterns of place of care trajectories that varied in the timing and duration of institutional and skilled home care use during the last three years of life. Clinical, socioregional, and health policy factors influenced where patients received care. Our findings can help to inform personal and societal care planning.

Memory profiles predict dementia over 23-28 years in normal but not successful aging

OBJECTIVES

Prospective studies suggest that memory deficits are detectable decades before clinical symptoms of dementia emerge. However, individual differences in long-term memory trajectories prior to diagnosis need to be further elucidated. The aim of the current study was to investigate long-term dementia and mortality risk for individuals with different memory trajectory profiles in a well-characterized population-based sample.

METHODS

1062 adults (aged 45-80 years) who were non-demented at baseline were followed over 23-28 years. Dementia and mortality risk were studied for three previously classified episodic memory trajectory groups: maintained high performance (Maintainers; 26%), average decline (Averages; 64%), and accelerated decline (Decliners; 12%), using multistate modeling to characterize individuals' transitions from an initial non-demented state, possibly to a state of dementia and/or death.

RESULTS

The memory groups showed considerable intergroup variability in memory profiles, starting 10-15 years prior to dementia diagnosis, and prior to death. A strong relationship between memory trajectory group and dementia risk was found. Specifically, Decliners had more than a fourfold risk of developing dementia compared to Averages. In contrast, Maintainers had a 2.6 times decreased dementia risk compared to Averages, and in addition showed no detectable memory decline prior to dementia diagnosis. A similar pattern of association was found for the memory groups and mortality risk, although only among non-demented.

CONCLUSION

There was a strong relationship between accelerated memory decline and dementia, further supporting the prognostic value of memory decline. The intergroup differences, however, suggest that mechanisms involved in successful memory aging may delay symptom onset.

Decline in Cognition from Mid-Life Improves Specificity of Mini-Mental State Examination: Diagnostic Test Accuracy in Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPs)

BACKGROUND

The merit of using baseline cognitive assessments in mid-life to help interpret cross-sectional cognitive tests scores in later life is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate how accuracy for diagnosing dementia is enhanced by comparing cross-sectional results to a midlife measure.

METHODS

Cohort study of 2,512 men with repeated measures of Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) over approximately 10 years. Index test MMSE at threshold of 24 indicating normal, as a cross-sectional measure and in combination with decline in MMSE score from mid-life. Reference standard consensus clinical diagnosis of dementia by two clinicians according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV).

RESULTS

1,150 men participated at phase 4 of whom 75 had dementia. A cross-sectional MMSE alone produced a sensitivity of 60% (50% to 70%) and specificity 95% (94% to 97%) with a threshold of≥24 points indicating normal. For lower-scoring men in late life, with cross sectional scores of < 22, combining cross-sectional AND a three-point or more decline over time had a sensitivity of 52% (39% to 64%) and specificity 99% (99% to 100%). For higher-scoring men in later life, with cross sectional scores < 26 combining cross-sectional OR decline of at least three points had a sensitivity of 98% (92% to 100%) and specificity 38% (32% to 44%).

CONCLUSION

It may be helpful in practice to formally evaluate cognition in mid-life as a baseline to compare with if problems develop in future, as this may enhance diagnostic accuracy and classification of people in later life.

The long arm of childhood intelligence on terminal decline: Evidence from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

The current study investigates the heterogeneity of cognitive trajectories at the end of life by assigning individuals into groups according to their cognitive trajectories prior to death. It also examines the role of childhood intelligence and education on these trajectories and group membership. Participants were drawn from the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1921 (LBC1921), a longitudinal study of individuals with a mean age of 79 years at study entry, and observed up to a maximum of five times to their early 90s. Growth mixture modeling was employed to identify groups of individuals with similar trajectories of global cognitive function measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in relation to time to death, accounting for childhood intelligence, education, the time to death from study entry, and health conditions (hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease). Two distinct groups of individuals (classes) were identified: a smaller class (18% of the sample) of individuals whose MMSE scores dropped linearly with about 0.5 MMSE points per year closer to death and a larger group (82% of the sample) with stable MMSE across the study period. Only childhood intelligence was found to be associated with an increased probability of belonging to the stable class of cognitive functioning prior to death (odds ratio = 1.08, standard error = 0.02, p ≤ .001). These findings support a protective role of childhood intelligence, a marker of cognitive reserve, against the loss of cognitive function prior to death. Our results also suggest that terminal decline is not necessarily a normative process. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Proportion of cognitive loss attributable to terminal decline

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportion of late-life cognitive loss attributable to impending death.

METHODS

Older persons (n = 1,071) in a longitudinal cohort study without dementia at enrollment underwent annual cognitive assessments (mean 10.6 years, SD 4.6, range 4-24) prior to death. We estimated the onset of terminal acceleration in cognitive decline and rates of decline before and after this point in change point models that allowed calculation of the percent of cognitive loss attributable to terminal decline. Outcomes were composite measures of global and specific cognitive functions. We also estimated dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) incidence before and during the terminal period.

RESULTS

A mean of 3.7 years before death (95% credible interval [CI] -3.8 to -3.5), the rate of global cognitive decline accelerated to -0.313 unit per year (95% CI -0.337 to -0.290), a more than 7-fold increase indicative of terminal decline. The mean global cognitive score dropped 0.377 unit (SD 0.516) assuming no terminal decline and 1.192 units (SD 1.080) with terminal decline. As a result, 71% (95% bootstrapped CI 0.70, 0.73) of overall global cognitive loss was terminal. In subsequent analyses, terminal decline accounted for 70% of episodic memory loss, 65% of semantic memory loss, 57% of working memory loss, 52% of perceptual speed loss, and 53% of visuospatial loss. MCI incidence in the preterminal and terminal periods was similar, but dementia incidence was more than 6-fold higher in the terminal period than preterminal.

CONCLUSION

Most late-life cognitive loss is driven by terminal decline.

Terminal decline of episodic memory and perceptual speed in a biracial population

We compared trajectories of terminal cognitive decline in older Black (n = 3372) and White (n = 1756) persons from a defined population who completed tests of episodic memory and perceptual speed at 3-year intervals for up to 18 years. During a mean of 9.9 years of observation, 1608 Black persons and 902 White persons died. Preterminal decline of episodic memory did not differ by race. Terminal episodic memory decline began earlier in Black persons (mean of 4.3 years before death) than in White persons (mean = 3.9 years) and progressed more slowly. By contrast, terminal decline of perceptual speed began earlier in White persons (mean = 5.0 years) than in Black persons (mean = 4.5 years). Rate of perceptual speed decline was more rapid in White persons than in Black persons in both the preterminal and terminal periods. The results indicate that terminal cognitive decline occurs in Black persons but suggest that the rate of cognitive decline during the terminal period is less rapid in Black persons than in White persons.

Slow gait speed as a predictor of 1-year cognitive decline in a veterans' retirement community in southern Taiwan

AIM

Slow gait speed has been associated with mortality, poor physical function and disability in older people. Our aim was to evaluate the association between slow gait speed and rapid cognitive decline among oldest-old men in Taiwan.

METHODS

We carried out a longitudinal cohort study in a veterans' retirement community, and enrolled 249 male residents aged 80 years and older. Slow gait speed was defined as <1 m/s, and rapid cognitive decline was defined as a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) decline of ≥3 points over 1 year. Body mass index, Charlson's Comorbidity Index, handgrip strength, gait speed and Mini-Mental State Examination datasets were collected, and a logistic regression model was built to evaluate the association between fast cognitive decline and slow gait speed.

RESULTS

In all, 249 residents (mean age 86.4 ± 4.01 years) were recruited, including 58 (23.3%) with rapid cognitive decline. Univariate analysis showed that slow gait speed could predict rapid cognitive decline (OR 4.10, 95% CI 1.20-14.00, P = 0.024). After adjusting for age, Charlson's Comorbidity Index, polypharmacy, psychiatric drug usage, cigarette smoking experience, baseline cognitive function, depressive mood, handgrip strength, nutritional status and history of fall, slow gait speed was still independently associated with rapid cognitive decline (adjusted OR 4.58, 95% CI 1.22-17.2, P = 0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

Slow gait speed was thus an independent predictor of rapid cognitive decline in oldest-old men in a veterans' retirement community in Taiwan. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017: 17 (Suppl. 1): 14-19.

How Does Psychosocial Behavior Contribute to Cognitive Health in Old Age?

With the aging of the U.S. population, the number of cognitively disabled persons is expected to substantially increase in coming decades, underscoring the urgent need for effective interventions. Here, we review the current evidence linking psychosocial factors to late-life cognitive loss and consider the study design needed to illuminate the biologic bases of the associations. We then examine an ongoing study that includes several of the key design elements, the Rush Memory and Aging Project. In this longitudinal clinical-pathological cohort study, indicators of personality, social connectedness, and psychological well-being were shown to predict late-life cognitive outcomes. Participants who died underwent a uniform neuropathologic examination to quantify common dementia-related pathologies. Some psychosocial indicators were associated with cerebral infarction; some indicators modified the association of neurodegenerative pathologies with cognitive loss; and the association of some indicators with cognitive outcomes appears to be independent of the pathologies traditionally associated with late-life dementia. These findings suggest that psychosocial behavior influences late-life cognitive health through multiple neurobiologic mechanisms. A better understanding of these mechanisms may lead to novel strategies for preserving cognitive health in old age.

A Longitudinal Study of the Mini-Mental State Examination in Late Nonagenarians and Its Relationship with Dementia, Mortality, and Education

OBJECTIVES

To examine level of and change in cognitive status using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in relation to dementia, mortality, education, and sex in late nonagenarians.

DESIGN

Three-year longitudinal study with examinations at ages 97, 99, and 100.

SETTING

Trained psychiatric research nurses examined participants at their place of living.

PARTICIPANTS

A representative population-based sample of 97-year-old Swedes (N = 591; 107 men, 484 women) living in Gothenburg, Sweden.

MEASUREMENTS

A Swedish version of the MMSE was used to measure cognitive status. Geriatric psychiatrists diagnosed dementia according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised. Mixed models were fitted to the data to model the longitudinal relationship between MMSE score and explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Individuals with dementia between age 97 and 100 had lower mean MMSE scores than those without dementia. Those who died during the 3-year follow-up had lower MMSE scores than those who survived. MMSE scores at baseline did not differ between those without dementia and those who developed dementia during the 3-year follow-up. Participants with more education had higher MMSE scores, but there was no association between education and linear change.

CONCLUSION

MMSE score is associated with dementia and subsequent mortality even in very old individuals, although the preclinical phase of dementia may be short in older age. Level of education is positively associated with MMSE score but not rate of decline in individuals approaching age 100.

The role of cognitive reserve on terminal decline: a cross-cohort analysis from two European studies: OCTO-Twin, Sweden, and Newcastle 85+, UK

OBJECTIVE

Cognitive performance shows a marked deterioration in close proximity to death, as postulated by the terminal decline hypothesis. The effect of education on the rate of terminal decline in the oldest people (i.e. persons 85+ years) has been controversial and not entirely understood. In the current study, we investigated the rate of decline prior to death with a special focus on the role of education and socioeconomic position, in two European longitudinal studies of ageing: the Origins of Variance in the Old-Old: Octogenarian Twins (OCTO-Twin) and the Newcastle 85+ study.

METHODS

A process-based approach was used in which individuals' cognitive scores were aligned according to distance to death. In a coordinated analysis, multilevel models were employed to examine associations between different markers of cognitive reserve (education and socioeconomic position) and terminal decline using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE), controlling for age at baseline, sex, dementia incidence and time to death from the study entry to the time of death within each cohort.

RESULTS

The current findings suggest that education was positively associated with higher MMSE scores prior to death in the OCTO-Twin, but not in the Newcastle 85+ study, independent of socioeconomic position and other factors such as baseline age, sex and time to death from the study entry. However, education was not associated with the rate of terminal decline in both of these studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results offer only partial support to the cognitive reserve hypothesis and cognitive performance prior to death.

Selective attrition and intraindividual variability in response time moderate cognitive change

OBJECTIVES

Selection of a developmental time metric is useful for understanding causal processes that underlie aging-related cognitive change and for the identification of potential moderators of cognitive decline. Building on research suggesting that time to attrition is a metric sensitive to non-normative influences of aging (e.g., subclinical health conditions), we examined reason for attrition and intraindividual variability (IIV) in reaction time as predictors of cognitive performance.

METHOD

Three hundred and four community dwelling older adults (64-92 years) completed annual assessments in a longitudinal study. IIV was calculated from baseline performance on reaction time tasks. Multilevel models were fit to examine patterns and predictors of cognitive change.

RESULTS

We show that time to attrition was associated with cognitive decline. Greater IIV was associated with declines on executive functioning and episodic memory measures. Attrition due to personal health reasons was also associated with decreased executive functioning compared to that of individuals who remained in the study.

DISCUSSION

These findings suggest that time to attrition is a useful metric for representing cognitive change, and reason for attrition and IIV are predictive of non-normative influences that may underlie instances of cognitive loss in older adults.

Education associated with a delayed onset of terminal decline

Background: the terminal decline hypothesis suggests an acceleration in the rate of loss of cognitive function before death. Evidence about the association of educational attainment and the onset of terminal decline is scarce.

Objective: to investigate the association of education with the onset of terminal decline in global cognitive function measured by Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) scores.

Subjects: deceased participants of the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study who were interviewed at about 2, 7, 9, 13, 17 and 21 years after baseline.

Methods: regular and Tobit random change point growth models were fitted to MMSE scores to identify the onset of terminal decline and assess the effect of education on this onset.

Results: people who left school at an older age had a delayed onset of terminal decline. Thus better educated individuals experience a slightly shorter period of faster decline before death.

Conclusion: an important finding emerging from our work is that education does appear to delay the onset of terminal decline, although only by a limited amount.

Investigating terminal decline: results from a UK population-based study of aging

The terminal decline hypothesis states that in the proximity of death, an individual's decline in cognitive abilities accelerates. We aimed at estimating the onset of faster rate of decline in global cognition using Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from participants of the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study (CC75C), a U.K. population-based longitudinal study of aging where almost all participants have died. The random change point model fitted to MMSE scores structured as a function of distance to death allowed us to identify a potentially different onset of change in rate of decline before death for each individual in the sample. Differences in rate of change before and after the onset of change in rate of decline by sociodemographic variables were investigated. On average, the onset of a faster rate of change occurred about 7.7 years before death and varied across individuals. Our results show that most individuals experience a period of slight decline followed by a much sharper decline. Education, age at death, and cognitive impairment at study entry were identified as modifiers of rate of change before and after change in rate of decline. Gender differences were found in rate of decline in the final stages of life. Our study suggests that terminal decline is a heterogeneous process, with its onset varying between individuals.

Coordinated analysis of age, sex, and education effects on change in MMSE scores

OBJECTIVES

We describe and compare the expected performance trajectories of older adults on the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) across six independent studies from four countries in the context of a collaborative network of longitudinal studies of aging. A coordinated analysis approach is used to compare patterns of change conditional on sample composition differences related to age, sex, and education. Such coordination accelerates evaluation of particular hypotheses. In particular, we focus on the effect of educational attainment on cognitive decline.

METHOD

Regular and Tobit mixed models were fit to MMSE scores from each study separately. The effects of age, sex, and education were examined based on more than one centering point.

RESULTS

Findings were relatively consistent across studies. On average, MMSE scores were lower for older individuals and declined over time. Education predicted MMSE score, but, with two exceptions, was not associated with decline in MMSE over time.

CONCLUSION

A straightforward association between educational attainment and rate of cognitive decline was not supported. Thoughtful consideration is needed when synthesizing evidence across studies, as methodologies adopted and sample characteristics, such as educational attainment, invariably differ.

The influence of cognitive decline on well-being in old age

This study addressed the hypothesis that late life cognitive decline leads to loss of well-being. Participants are older persons from the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Beginning in 2001, they underwent annual clinical evaluations that included detailed cognitive performance testing and a 10-item self-report measure of purpose in life, an aspect of well-being. Initial analyses involved 1,049 individuals who were without dementia at baseline and followed a mean of 5.0 years. The intercepts and slopes of global cognition and purpose were positively correlated, and level of cognition at a given evaluation predicted level of purpose at the subsequent evaluation, consistent with the study hypothesis. Purpose also predicted subsequent cognition. These findings persisted in analyses that excluded mild cognitive impairment or controlled for time varying levels of depressive symptoms or disability. To see whether cognitive decline's correlation with purpose differed from its correlation with other aspects of well-being, we conducted additional analyses on a subgroup of 560 persons without dementia who completed a multidimensional measure of well-being once between 2008 and 2011. More rapid cognitive decline in the period preceding well-being assessment (M = 5.5 years, SD = 2.8) was associated with lower level of nearly all aspects of well-being (5 of 6 measures), but the extent of the association varied across well-being dimensions and was stronger for purpose than for self-acceptance and autonomy. The results support the hypothesis that cognitive aging leads to diminished well-being, particularly aspects such as purpose in life that involve behavioral regulation.

Change point models for cognitive tests using semi-parametric maximum likelihood

Random-effects change point models are formulated for longitudinal data obtained from cognitive tests. The conditional distribution of the response variable in a change point model is often assumed to be normal even if the response variable is discrete and shows ceiling effects. For the sum score of a cognitive test, the binomial and the beta-binomial distributions are presented as alternatives to the normal distribution. Smooth shapes for the change point models are imposed. Estimation is by marginal maximum likelihood where a parametric population distribution for the random change point is combined with a non-parametric mixing distribution for other random effects. An extension to latent class modelling is possible in case some individuals do not experience a change in cognitive ability. The approach is illustrated using data from a longitudinal study of Swedish octogenarians and nonagenarians that began in 1991. Change point models are applied to investigate cognitive change in the years before death.

Terminal decline in motor function

The study aim was to test the hypothesis that motor function undergoes accelerated decline proximate to death. As part of a longitudinal clinical-pathologic study, 124 older Roman Catholic nuns, priests, and monks completed at least 7 annual clinical evaluations, died, and underwent brain autopsy and uniform neuropathologic examination. Each evaluation included administration of 11 motor tests and 19 cognitive tests from which global measures of motor and cognitive function were derived. The global motor measure (baseline M = 0.82, SD = 0.21) declined a mean 0.024 unit per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.032, -0.016) until a mean of 2.46 years (95% CI: -2.870, -2.108) before death when rate of decline increased nearly fivefold to -0.117 unit per year (95% CI: -0.140, -0.097). The global cognitive measure (baseline M = 0.07, SD = 0.45) declined a mean of 0.027-unit per year (95% CI: -0.041, -0.014) until a mean of 2.76 years (95% CI: -3.157, -2.372) before death when rate of decline increased more than 13-fold to -0.371 unit per year (95% CI: -0.443, -0.306). Onset of terminal motor decline was highly correlated with onset of terminal cognitive decline (r = .94, 95% CI: 0.81, 0.99), but rates of motor and cognitive change were not strongly correlated (preterminal r = .20, 95% CI: -0.05, 0.38; terminal r = .34, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.62). Higher level of plaques and tangles was associated with earlier onset of terminal decline in motor function, but no pathologic measures were associated with rate of preterminal or terminal motor decline. The results demonstrate that motor and cognitive functions both undergo a period of accelerated decline in the last few years of life.

Terminal dedifferentiation of cognitive abilities

OBJECTIVE

To test the cognitive dedifferentiation hypothesis that cognitive abilities become increasingly correlated in late life.

METHODS

Participants are 174 older persons without dementia at the beginning of a longitudinal clinical-pathologic cohort study. At annual intervals for 6 to 15 years prior to death, they completed a battery of cognitive performance tests from which previously established composite measures of episodic memory, semantic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed were derived. At death, there was a uniform neuropathologic assessment and levels of diffuse plaques, neuritic plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles were summarized in a composite measure. Change in the 4 cognitive outcomes was analyzed simultaneously in a mixed-effects model that allowed rate of decline to accelerate at a variable point before death.

RESULTS

On average, cognitive decline before the terminal period was relatively gradual, and rates of change in different cognitive domains were moderately correlated, ranging from 0.25 (episodic memory-working memory) to 0.46 (episodic memory-semantic memory). By contrast, cognition declined rapidly during the terminal period, and rates of change in different cognitive functions were strongly correlated, ranging from 0.83 (working memory-perceptual speed) to 0.89 (episodic memory-semantic memory, semantic memory-working memory). Higher level of plaques and tangles on postmortem examination was associated with faster preterminal decline and earlier onset of terminal decline but not with rate of terminal decline or correlations between rates of change in different cognitive functions.

CONCLUSION

In the last years of life, covariation among cognitive abilities sharply increases consistent with the cognitive dedifferentiation hypothesis.

Association of crossword puzzle participation with memory decline in persons who develop dementia

Participation in cognitively stimulating leisure activities such as crossword puzzles may delay onset of the memory decline in the preclinical stages of dementia, possibly via its effect on improving cognitive reserve. We followed 488 initially cognitively intact community residing individuals with clinical and cognitive assessments every 12-18 months in the Bronx Aging Study. We assessed the influence of crossword puzzle participation on the onset of accelerated memory decline as measured by the Buschke Selective Reminding Test in 101 individuals who developed incident dementia using a change point model. Crossword puzzle participation at baseline delayed onset of accelerated memory decline by 2.54 years. Inclusion of education or participation in other cognitively stimulating activities did not significantly add to the fit of the model beyond the effect of puzzles. Our findings show that late life crossword puzzle participation, independent of education, was associated with delayed onset of memory decline in persons who developed dementia. Given the wide availability and accessibility of crossword puzzles, their role in preventing cognitive decline should be validated in future clinical trials.

An evaluation of analytical approaches for understanding change in cognition in the context of aging and health

OBJECTIVES

In this article, we discuss the importance of studying the relationship between health and cognitive function, and some of the methods with which this relationship has been studied.

METHODS

We consider the challenges involved, in particular operationalization of the health construct and causal inference in the context of observational data. We contrast the approaches taken, and review the questions addressed: whether health and cognition are associated, whether changes in health are associated with changes in cognition, and the degree of interdependency among their respective trajectories.

RESULTS

A variety of approaches for understanding the association between cognition and health in aging individuals have been used. Much of the literature on cognitive change and health has relied on methods that are based at least in part on the reorganization of between-person differences (e.g., cross-lag analysis) rather than relying more fully on analysis of within-person change and joint analysis of individual differences in within-person change in cognition and health.

DISCUSSION

We make the case for focusing on the interdependency between within-person changes in health and cognition and suggest methods that would support this.

Trajectories of cognitive decline following dementia onset: what accounts for variation in progression?

BACKGROUND

Delineating the natural history of dementia progression has important clinical implications, including reducing caregiver burden and targeting effective drug trials. We examined whether trajectories of cognitive change differed reliably after diagnosis, and whether diverse predictors of such differences (demographic, psychological, biological, genetic, social) could be identified.

METHODS

Cognitive change was examined for incident dementia cases (mild: n = 156; moderate: n = 77; severe: n = 73) and controls (n = 249) from the Kungsholmen Project, a community-based study of adults 75 years and older.

RESULTS

For those with dementia, total variance attributed to between-person differences in cognitive decline was modest and linked to but a single predictor (history of cardiovascular disease). Although less variance in cognitive decline was observed for the similarly aged controls, numerous significant predictors of these differences were identified.

CONCLUSION

The neurodegenerative process underlying dementia overshadows formerly significant predictors of cognitive change.

The reliability of assigning individuals to cognitive states using the Mini Mental-State Examination: a population-based prospective cohort study

Background

Previous investigations of test re-test reliability of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) have used correlations and statistics such as Cronbach's α to assess consistency. In practice, the MMSE is usually used to group individuals into cognitive states. The reliability of this grouping (state based approach) has not been fully explored.

Methods

MMSE data were collected on a subset of 2,275 older participants (≥ 65 years) from the population-based Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study. Two measurements taken approximately two months apart were used to investigate three state-based categorisations. Descriptive statistics were used to determine how many people remained in the same cognitive group or went up or down groups. Weighted logistic regression was used to identify predictive characteristics of those who moved group.

Results

The proportion of people who remained in the same MMSE group at screen and follow-up assessment ranged from 58% to 78%. The proportion of individuals who went up one or more groups was roughly equal to the proportion that went down one or more groups; most of the change occurred when measurements were close to the cut-points. There was no consistently significant predictor for changing cognitive group.

Conclusion

A state-based approach to analysing the reliability of the MMSE provided similar results to correlation analyses. State-based models of cognitive change or individual trajectory models using raw scores need multiple waves to help overcome natural variation in MMSE scores and to help identify true cognitive change.

Are terminal decline and its potential indicators detectable in population studies of the oldest old?

OBJECTIVES

To explore whether it is possible to detect decline in global scores of cognitive function in the proximity of death whilst simultaneously investigating potential risk profiles.

METHODS

Using the Mini Mental State Examination in a population study of the oldest old in which 99% of participants have died, a linear and quadratic time-to-death repeated measures random effects models were used to detect decline and potential factors which might indicate individual variation.

RESULTS

Decline and acceleration of this decline were detectable in the period before death. Some between person variation was detected in this pattern, which included differences in cognitive performance by age at death (-0.2 (SE = 0.02)), sex (-1.2 (SE = 0.2)), initial cognitive impairment (-7.5 (SE = 0.2)) and mobility (-0.6 (SE = 0.2)), in rate of decline by age at death (-0.04 (SE = 0.005)), sex (-0.1 (SE = 0.06)), initial cognitive impairment (-0.3 (SE = 0.07)) and mobility (-0.1 (SE = 0.05)) and differences in change in rate of decline by sex (-0.008 (SE = 0.004)), initial cognitive impairment (-0.02 (SE = 0.04)) and mobility (-0.01 (SE = 0.003)).

CONCLUSION

Using an extension of existing methods for exploring terminal decline, the phenomenon of decline in global cognition measures in the proximity of death was clearly detected as well as potential variables which could influence that pattern. Further work is required to explore whether similar methods can be used to detect the onset of the acceleration of this decline in each individual together with the potential to identify individual level factors that can allow clinicians to distinguish between the normal and preterminal phases of change in extreme old age.

Terminal decline from within- and between-person perspectives, accounting for incident dementia

OBJECTIVE

The terminal cognitive decline hypothesis has been debated for almost 50 years. This hypothesis implies a change in rate of decline within an individual. Therefore, we examine the hypothesis from a within-person perspective using a time to death chronological structure.

METHOD

Scores on a Swedish version of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Information and Block Design scores from 461 OCTO-Twin Study participants with confirmed death dates were modeled using quadratic growth curve models including both age and distance from death at study entry, sex, education, and dementia diagnosis as covariates of initial performance and of linear and quadratic change over time.

RESULTS

Information scores showed statistically significant evidence of slight within-person acceleration of declines in the no dementia group. Individuals with incident dementia declined more quickly, and those who were closer to death at study baseline had a stronger acceleration. Block Design scores declined but did not show evidence of such acceleration either within or across individuals. Decline was faster in incident cases closer to death at study entry.

DISCUSSION

Within-person evidence of terminal decline is not as strong as previously published between-person results. Strategies for focusing models on longitudinal aspects of available data and the extent to which lack of within-person evidence for terminal decline may stem from common data limitations are discussed.

Aging and the shape of cognitive change before death: terminal decline or terminal drop?

OBJECTIVES

Relative to typical age-related cognitive decrements, the terms "terminal decline" and "terminal drop" refer to the phenomenon of increased cognitive decline in proximity to death. Given that these terms are not necessarily synonymous, we examined the important theoretical distinction between the two alternative trajectories or shapes of changes they imply.

METHODS

We used 12-year (5-wave) data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study to directly test whether pre-death cognitive decrements follow a terminal decline (generally gradual) or a terminal drop (more abrupt) shape. Pre-death trajectories of cognitive decline for n=265 decedents (Mage = 72.67 years, SD = 6.44) were examined separately for 5 key cognitive constructs (verbal speed, working memory, episodic memory, semantic memory, and crystallized ability).

RESULTS

Several classes of linear mixed models evaluated whether cognitive decline increased per additional year closer to death. Findings indicated that the shape of pre-death cognitive change was predominantly characterized by decline that is steeper as compared with typical aging-related change, but still best described as slow and steady decline, especially as compared with precipitous drop.

DISCUSSION

The present findings suggest that terminal decline and terminal drop trajectories may not be mutually exclusive but could rather reflect distinct developmental trajectories within the same individual.

Modeling cognitive trajectories within longitudinal studies: a focus on older adults

The natural history of life span cognitive performance and its late-life determinants have been studied from an array of perspectives. Significant insights come from psychological disciplines, including cognitive, developmental, and neuropsychology, as well as from medical specialties, such as geriatrics, neurology, psychiatry, neuroradiology, and neuropathology, that contribute to the growing interdisciplinary scientific field: cognitive neuroscience of aging. This survey of longitudinal studies of aging suggests that disease-oriented investigations commonly do not adequately consider normative cognitive changes, whereas developmental studies do not sufficiently measure and model nonnormative cognitive aging. This article argues for an integrative perspective that considers both of these influences on cognitive trajectories and presents a series of methodological concerns that have not been addressed comprehensively. Interdisciplinary methods from longitudinal observational studies should be leveraged to enable translational interventions to promote brain longevity.

Sex differences in the level and rate of change of physical function and grip strength in the Danish 1905-cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The study was conducted to examine sex differences in the initial level and rate of change in physical function and grip strength.

METHOD

The baseline survey included 2,262 Danes born in 1905 and alive in 1998 and followed-up in 2000, 2003, and 2005. Hence, the authors fully used the power of having a cohort with multiple assessments in late life and virtually complete follow-up of lifespan (through December 2008). Latent growth curve modeling was used.

RESULTS

Men had higher initial levels and rates of decline in strength score and grip strength. Lifespan was positively correlated with intercepts and slopes.

DISCUSSION

The Danish data suggested that the longest-living individuals have higher initial levels of strength score and grip strength and smaller rate of change. The data further suggested that the initial level of strength score and grip strength was more predictive of mortality than the rate of change was, and the predictive effects were similar in men and women.

Decline in life satisfaction in old age: longitudinal evidence for links to distance-to-death

Using 12-year longitudinal data from deceased participants of the Berlin Aging Study (N = 414; age 70-103 years, at first occasion; M = 87 years, SD = 8.13), the authors examined whether and how old and very old individuals exhibit terminal decline in reported life satisfaction at the end of life. Relative to age-related decline, mortality-related decline (i.e., distance-to-death) accounted for more variance in interindividual differences in life satisfaction change and revealed steeper average rates of decline, by a factor of 2. By applying change-point growth models, the authors identified a point, about 4 years before death, at which decline showed a two-fold increase in steepness relative to the preterminal phase. For the oldest old (85+ years), a threefold increase was observed. Established mortality predictors, including sex, comorbidities, dementia, and cognition, accounted for only small portions of interindividual differences in mortality-related change in life satisfaction. The authors conclude that late-life changes in subjective well-being are related to mechanisms predicting death and suggest routes for further inquiry.

Men: good health and high mortality. Sex differences in health and aging

This review examines sex differences in health and survival, with a focus on the Nordic countries. There is a remarkable discrepancy between the health and survival of the sexes: men are physically stronger and have fewer disabilities, but have substantially higher mortality at all ages compared with women: the so-called male-female health-survival paradox. A number of proposed explanations for this paradox are rooted in biological, social, and psychological interpretations. It is likely to be due to multiple causes that include fundamental biological differences between the sexes such as genetic factors, immune system responses, hormones, and disease patterns. Behavioral differences such as risk-taking and reluctance to seek and comply with medical treatment may also play a role. Another consideration is that part of the difference may be due to methodological challenges, such as selective non-participation and under-reporting of health problems, and delayed seeking of treatment by men. The Nordic countries provide a unique opportunity for such studies, as they have good-quality data in their national health registers, which cover the whole population, and a long tradition of high participation rates in surveys.

Longitudinal trajectories of cognitive change in preclinical Alzheimer's disease: a growth mixture modeling analysis

Preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) refers to a period of time prior to diagnosis during which cognitive deficits among individuals who will go on to receive a diagnosis of AD are present. There is great interest in describing the nature of cognitive change during the preclinical period, in terms of whether persons decline in a linear fashion to diagnosis, or exhibit some stability of functioning, followed by rapid losses in performance. In the current study we apply Growth Mixture Modeling to data from The Kungsholmen Project to evaluate whether decline in Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores during the preclinical period of AD follows a linear or quadratic function. At the end of a 7-year follow-up period, some individuals would be diagnosed with AD (n=71), whereas others would remain free of dementia (n=457). The results indicated that a two-group quadratic model of decline provided the best statistical fit measures, as well as the greatest estimates of sensitivity (67%) and specificity (86%). Differences in MMSE scores were apparent at baseline, but the preclinical AD group began to experience precipitous declines three years prior to diagnosis. Finally, persons who were misclassified as preclinical AD had fewer years of education and poorer MMSE scores at baseline.

The elephant in the room - healthy brains in later life, epidemiology and public health

The increasing age of the population around the world has meant that greater attention is being paid to disorders that mainly affect older people. In particular, work is focusing on ways to preserve the healthy brain and prevent dementia. Preventive studies are complex and must take into account not only simple approaches such as those used in risk and outcome studies, but also stage of life, survival and mortality, and population context before their effect can be assessed. This paper presents questions and areas which must be explored if the potential for prevention of dementia during brain ageing is to be properly understood.