THE STRATIFIED MICRO-RANDOMIZED TRIAL DESIGN: SAMPLE SIZE CONSIDERATIONS FOR TESTING NESTED CAUSAL EFFECTS OF TIME-VARYING TREATMENTS

ASSESSING TIME-VARYING CAUSAL EFFECT MODERATION IN THE PRESENCE OF CLUSTER-LEVEL TREATMENT EFFECT HETEROGENEITY AND INTERFERENCE

The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is a sequential randomized experimental design to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of mobile health (mHealth) intervention components that may be delivered at hundreds or thousands of decision points. MRTs have motivated a new class of causal estimands, termed "causal excursion effects", for which semiparametric inference can be conducted via a weighted, centered least squares criterion (Boruvka et al., 2018). Existing methods assume between-subject independence and non-interference. Deviations from these assumptions often occur. In this paper, causal excursion effects are revisited under potential cluster-level treatment effect heterogeneity and interference, where the treatment effect of interest may depend on cluster-level moderators. Utility of the proposed methods is shown by analyzing data from a multi-institution cohort of first year medical residents in the United States.

How Notifications Affect Engagement With a Behavior Change App: Results From a Micro-Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

Drink Less is a behavior change app to help higher-risk drinkers in the United Kingdom reduce their alcohol consumption. The app includes a daily notification asking users to "Please complete your drinks and mood diary," yet we did not understand the causal effect of the notification on engagement nor how to improve this component of Drink Less. We developed a new bank of 30 new messages to increase users' reflective motivation to engage with Drink Less. This study aimed to determine how standard and new notifications affect engagement.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to estimate the causal effect of the notification on near-term engagement, to explore whether this effect changed over time, and to create an evidence base to further inform the optimization of the notification policy.

METHODS

We conducted a micro-randomized trial (MRT) with 2 additional parallel arms. Inclusion criteria were Drink Less users who consented to participate in the trial, self-reported a baseline Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score of ≥8, resided in the United Kingdom, were aged ≥18 years, and reported interest in drinking less alcohol. Our MRT randomized 350 new users to test whether receiving a notification, compared with receiving no notification, increased the probability of opening the app in the subsequent hour, over the first 30 days since downloading Drink Less. Each day at 8 PM, users were randomized with a 30% probability of receiving the standard message, a 30% probability of receiving a new message, or a 40% probability of receiving no message. We additionally explored time to disengagement, with the allocation of 60% of eligible users randomized to the MRT (n=350) and 40% of eligible users randomized in equal number to the 2 parallel arms, either receiving the no notification policy (n=98) or the standard notification policy (n=121). Ancillary analyses explored effect moderation by recent states of habituation and engagement.

RESULTS

Receiving a notification, compared with not receiving a notification, increased the probability of opening the app in the next hour by 3.5-fold (95% CI 2.91-4.25). Both types of messages were similarly effective. The effect of the notification did not change significantly over time. A user being in a state of already engaged lowered the new notification effect by 0.80 (95% CI 0.55-1.16), although not significantly. Across the 3 arms, time to disengagement was not significantly different.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a strong near-term effect of engagement on the notification, but no overall difference in time to disengagement between users receiving the standard fixed notification, no notification at all, or the random sequence of notifications within the MRT. The strong near-term effect of the notification presents an opportunity to target notifications to increase "in-the-moment" engagement. Further optimization is required to improve the long-term engagement.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/18690.

Microrandomized Trials: Developing Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions for Better Public Health

Just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) represent an intervention design that adapts the provision and type of support over time to an individual's changing status and contexts, intending to deliver the right support on the right occasion. As a novel strategy for delivering mobile health interventions, JITAIs have the potential to improve access to quality care in underserved communities and, thus, alleviate health disparities, a significant public health concern. Valid experimental designs and analysis methods are required to inform the development of JITAIs. Here, we briefly review the cutting-edge design of microrandomized trials (MRTs), covering both the classical MRT design and its outcome-adaptive counterpart. Associated statistical challenges related to the design and analysis of MRTs are also discussed. Two case studies are provided to illustrate the aforementioned concepts and designs throughout the article. We hope our work leads to better design and application of JITAIs, advancing public health research and practice. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(1):60-69. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307150).

Engagement in digital interventions

The notion of "engagement," which plays an important role in various domains of psychology, is gaining increased currency as a concept that is critical to the success of digital interventions. However, engagement remains an ill-defined construct, with different fields generating their own domain-specific definitions. Moreover, given that digital interactions in real-world settings are characterized by multiple demands and choice alternatives competing for an individual's effort and attention, they involve fast and often impulsive decision-making. Prior research seeking to uncover the mechanisms underlying engagement has nonetheless focused mainly on psychological factors and social influences and neglected to account for the role of neural mechanisms that shape individual choices. This article aims to integrate theories and empirical evidence across multiple domains to define engagement and discuss opportunities and challenges to promote effective engagement in digital interventions. We also propose the affect-integration-motivation and attention-context-translation (AIM-ACT) framework, which is based on a neurophysiological account of engagement, to shed new light on how in-the-moment engagement unfolds in response to a digital stimulus. Building on this framework, we provide recommendations for designing strategies to promote engagement in digital interventions and highlight directions for future research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Hybrid Experimental Designs for Intervention Development: What, Why, and How

Advances in mobile and wireless technologies offer tremendous opportunities for extending the reach and impact of psychological interventions and for adapting interventions to the unique and changing needs of individuals. However, insufficient engagement remains a critical barrier to the effectiveness of digital interventions. Human delivery of interventions (e.g., by clinical staff) can be more engaging but potentially more expensive and burdensome. Hence, the integration of digital and human-delivered components is critical to building effective and scalable psychological interventions. Existing experimental designs can be used to answer questions either about human-delivered components that are typically sequenced and adapted at relatively slow timescales (e.g., monthly) or about digital components that are typically sequenced and adapted at much faster timescales (e.g., daily). However, these methodologies do not accommodate sequencing and adaptation of components at multiple timescales and hence cannot be used to empirically inform the joint sequencing and adaptation of human-delivered and digital components. Here, we introduce the hybrid experimental design (HED)-a new experimental approach that can be used to answer scientific questions about building psychological interventions in which human-delivered and digital components are integrated and adapted at multiple timescales. We describe the key characteristics of HEDs (i.e., what they are), explain their scientific rationale (i.e., why they are needed), and provide guidelines for their design and corresponding data analysis (i.e., how can data arising from HEDs be used to inform effective and scalable psychological interventions).

MCMTC: A Pragmatic Framework for Selecting an Experimental Design to Inform the Development of Digital Interventions

Advances in digital technologies have created unprecedented opportunities to deliver effective and scalable behavior change interventions. Many digital interventions include multiple components, namely several aspects of the intervention that can be differentiated for systematic investigation. Various types of experimental approaches have been developed in recent years to enable researchers to obtain the empirical evidence necessary for the development of effective multiple-component interventions. These include factorial designs, Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs), and Micro-Randomized Trials (MRTs). An important challenge facing researchers concerns selecting the right type of design to match their scientific questions. Here, we propose MCMTC – a pragmatic framework that can be used to guide investigators interested in developing digital interventions in deciding which experimental approach to select. This framework includes five questions that investigators are encouraged to answer in the process of selecting the most suitable design: (1) Multiple-component intervention: Is the goal to develop an intervention that includes multiple components; (2) Component selection: Are there open scientific questions about the selection of specific components for inclusion in the intervention; (3) More than a single component: Are there open scientific questions about the inclusion of more than a single component in the intervention; (4) Timing: Are there open scientific questions about the timing of component delivery, that is when to deliver specific components; and (5) Change: Are the components in question designed to address conditions that change relatively slowly (e.g., over months or weeks) or rapidly (e.g., every day, hours, minutes). Throughout we use examples of tobacco cessation digital interventions to illustrate the process of selecting a design by answering these questions. For simplicity we focus exclusively on four experimental approaches—standard two- or multi-arm randomized trials, classic factorial designs, SMARTs, and MRTs—acknowledging that the array of possible experimental approaches for developing digital interventions is not limited to these designs.

Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions for Suicide Prevention: Promise, Challenges, and Future Directions

The suicide rate (currently 14 per 100,000) has barely changed in the United States over the past 100 years. There is a need for new ways of preventing suicide. Further, research has revealed that suicidal thoughts and behaviors and the factors that drive them are dynamic, heterogeneous, and interactive. Most existing interventions for suicidal thoughts and behaviors are infrequent, not accessible when most needed, and not systematically tailored to the person using their own data (e.g., from their own smartphone). Advances in technology offer an opportunity to develop new interventions that may better match the dynamic, heterogeneous, and interactive nature of suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Just-In-Time Adaptive Interventions (JITAIs), which use smartphones and wearables, are designed to provide the right type of support at the right time by adapting to changes in internal states and external contexts, offering a promising pathway toward more effective suicide prevention. In this review, we highlight the potential of JITAIs for suicide prevention, challenges ahead (e.g., measurement, ethics), and possible solutions to these challenges.

Optimizing a Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention to Improve Dietary Adherence in Behavioral Obesity Treatment: Protocol for a Microrandomized Trial

BACKGROUND

Behavioral obesity treatment (BOT) is a gold standard approach to weight loss and reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, frequent lapses from the recommended diet stymie weight loss and prevent individuals from actualizing the health benefits of BOT. There is a need for innovative treatment solutions to improve adherence to the prescribed diet in BOT.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to optimize a smartphone-based just-in-time adaptive intervention (JITAI) that uses daily surveys to assess triggers for dietary lapses and deliver interventions when the risk of lapse is high. A microrandomized trial design will evaluate the efficacy of any interventions (ie, theory-driven or a generic alert to risk) on the proximal outcome of lapses during BOT, compare the effects of theory-driven interventions with generic risk alerts on the proximal outcome of lapse, and examine contextual moderators of interventions.

METHODS

Adults with overweight or obesity and cardiovascular disease risk (n=159) will participate in a 6-month web-based BOT while using the JITAI to prevent dietary lapses. Each time the JITAI detects elevated lapse risk, the participant will be randomized to no intervention, a generic risk alert, or 1 of 4 theory-driven interventions (ie, enhanced education, building self-efficacy, fostering motivation, and improving self-regulation). The primary outcome will be the occurrence of lapse in the 2.5 hours following randomization. Contextual moderators of intervention efficacy will also be explored (eg, location and time of day). The data will inform an optimized JITAI that selects the theory-driven approach most likely to prevent lapses in a given moment.

RESULTS

The recruitment for the microrandomized trial began on April 19, 2021, and is ongoing.

CONCLUSIONS

This study will optimize a JITAI for dietary lapses so that it empirically tailors the provision of evidence-based intervention to the individual and context. The finalized JITAI will be evaluated for efficacy in a future randomized controlled trial of distal health outcomes (eg, weight loss).

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04784585; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04784585.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/33568.

Estimating time-varying causal excursion effect in mobile health with binary outcomes

Advances in wearables and digital technology now make it possible to deliver behavioral mobile health interventions to individuals in their everyday life. The micro-randomized trial is increasingly used to provide data to inform the construction of these interventions. In a micro-randomized trial, each individual is repeatedly randomized among multiple intervention options, often hundreds or even thousands of times, over the course of the trial. This work is motivated by multiple micro-randomized trials that have been conducted or are currently in the field, in which the primary outcome is a longitudinal binary outcome. The primary aim of such micro-randomized trials is to examine whether a particular time-varying intervention has an effect on the longitudinal binary outcome, often marginally over all but a small subset of the individual's data. We propose the definition of causal excursion effect that can be used in such primary aim analysis for micro-randomized trials with binary outcomes. Under rather restrictive assumptions one can, based on existing literature, derive a semiparametric, locally efficient estimator of the causal effect. Starting from this estimator, we develop an estimator that can be used as the basis of a primary aim analysis under more plausible assumptions. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the estimators. We illustrate the developed methods using data from the micro-randomized trial, BariFit. In BariFit, the goal is to support weight maintenance for individuals who received bariatric surgery.

Discussion of ‘Estimating time-varying causal excursion effects in mobile health with binary outcomes’

In this discussion, we examine the contributions of Qian et al. (2021) and potential applications of the newly developed estimator for the causal excursion effect in binary outcome data. Specifically, we consider extension of their method to count outcomes and observational data, propose an alternative use of their method for analysing excursion effect trajectories and discuss ways of improving estimator efficiency.

Microrandomized Trial Design for Evaluating Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions Through Mobile Health Technologies for Cardiovascular Disease

Smartphone and wearable device use is rising broadly and can be leveraged for chronic disease management. Just-in-time adaptive interventions promise to deliver personalized, dynamic interventions directly to patients through use of push notifications from mobile devices. Although just-in-time adaptive interventions are a powerful tool for shaping health behavior, their application to cardiovascular disease management has been limited as they can be challenging to design. Herein, we provide a general overview and conceptual framework for microrandomized trials, a novel experimental study design that can be used to optimize just-in-time adaptive interventions. Microrandomized trials leverage mobile devices to sequentially randomize participants to types or levels of an intervention to determine the effectiveness of an intervention and time-varying moderators of those effects. Microrandomized trials are an efficient study design that can be used to determine which intervention components to include in just-in-time adaptive interventions and to optimize their decision rules while maintaining the strength of causal inference associated with traditional randomized controlled trials.

Off-Policy Estimation of Long-Term Average Outcomes with Applications to Mobile Health

Due to the recent advancements in wearables and sensing technology, health scientists are increasingly developing mobile health (mHealth) interventions. In mHealth interventions, mobile devices are used to deliver treatment to individuals as they go about their daily lives. These treatments are generally designed to impact a near time, proximal outcome such as stress or physical activity. The mHealth intervention policies, often called just-in-time adaptive interventions, are decision rules that map a individual's current state (e.g., individual's past behaviors as well as current observations of time, location, social activity, stress and urges to smoke) to a particular treatment at each of many time points. The vast majority of current mHealth interventions deploy expert-derived policies. In this paper, we provide an approach for conducting inference about the performance of one or more such policies using historical data collected under a possibly different policy. Our measure of performance is the average of proximal outcomes over a long time period should the particular mHealth policy be followed. We provide an estimator as well as confidence intervals. This work is motivated by HeartSteps, an mHealth physical activity intervention.

THE STRATIFIED MICRO-RANDOMIZED TRIAL DESIGN: SAMPLE SIZE CONSIDERATIONS FOR TESTING NESTED CAUSAL EFFECTS OF TIME-VARYING TREATMENTS

Technological advancements in the field of mobile devices and wearable sensors have helped overcome obstacles in the delivery of care, making it possible to deliver behavioral treatments anytime and anywhere. Here, we discuss our work on the design of a mobile health smoking cessation intervention study with the goal of assessing whether reminders, delivered at times of stress, result in a reduction/prevention of stress in the near-term, and whether this effect changes with time in study. Multiple statistical challenges arose in this effort, leading to the development of the stratified micro-randomized trial design. In these designs, each individual is randomized to treatment repeatedly at times determined by predictions of risk. These risk times may be impacted by prior treatment. We describe the statistical challenges and detail how they can be met.

Microrandomized trials for promoting engagement in mobile health data collection: Adolescent/young adult oral chemotherapy adherence as an example

Long-term engagement with mobile health (mHealth) apps can provide critical data for improving empirical models for real-time health behaviors. To learn how to improve and maintain mHealth engagement, micro-randomized trials (MRTs) can be used to optimize different engagement strategies. In MRTs, participants are sequentially randomized, often hundreds or thousands of times, to different engagement strategies or treatments. The data gathered are then used to decide which treatment is optimal in which context. In this paper, we discuss an example MRT for youth with cancer, where we randomize different engagement strategies to improve self-reports on factors related to medication adherence. MRTs, moreover, can go beyond improving engagement, and we reference other MRTs to address substance abuse, sedentary behavior, and so on.