Prognostic Nomogram for Disease-Specific Survival in Patients with Non-metastatic Ampullary Carcinoma After Surgery

Intra-ampullary and Periampullary Carcinoma: Clinicopathological Comparison and Survival Outcomes

Introduction The ampulla of Vater is a structure in the duodenal wall in which the biliary and pancreatic ducts open. Malignant epithelial tumors arising at this site are commonly referred to as ampullary adenocarcinomas. In this study, we compared the clinicopathological features of intra-ampullary and periampullary carcinomas, including survival outcomes. Methods This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted at the Department of Pathology, Liaquat National Hospital. All radiologically suspected cases or biopsy-proven (endoscopic biopsy) cases of intra-ampullary/periampullary carcinoma were included in the study. All patients underwent surgical resection (Whipple's procedure/pancreatoduodenectomy). The classification of intra-ampullary and periampullary carcinomas was performed according to the College of American Pathologists (CAP) guidelines. Results Among the 188 case studies, most (61.7%, n = 116) were males, with a median age of 55 years. Most tumors were of the pancreatobiliary subtype (57.4%, n = 108). Similarly, intra-ampullary carcinoma was more common than periampullary carcinoma (61.7% vs. 38.3%). Intra-ampullary carcinoma showed a higher extent of involvement of adjacent structures, a higher frequency of perineural invasion, and a higher nodal stage than periampullary carcinoma. Similarly, the median disease-specific survival of intra-ampullary carcinoma was significantly lower (46 months) than that of periampullary carcinoma (53.5 months). Conclusion We found a higher incidence of intra-ampullary carcinoma in our study. In addition, intra-ampullary carcinoma had a worse survival rate and was associated with poorer pathological parameters, such as perineural invasion and higher nodal and tumor stages than periampullary carcinoma.

Clinicopathologic Analysis and Prognostic Factors for Survival in Patients with Operable Ampullary Carcinoma: A Multi-Institutional Retrospective Experience

Background and Objectives: In ampullary cancer, 5-year survival rates are 30-50%, even with optimal resection and perioperative systemic therapies. We sought to determine the important clinicopathological features and adjuvant treatments in terms of the prognosis of patients with operable-stage ampullary carcinomas. Materials and Methods: We included 197 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy to treat ampullary carcinomas between December 2003 and May 2019. Demographics, clinical features, treatments, and outcomes/survival were analyzed. Results: The median disease-free survival (mDFS) and median overall survival (mOS) were 40.9 vs. 63.4 months, respectively. The mDFS was significantly lower in patients with lymphovascular invasion (p < 0.001) and lymph node involvement (p = 0.027). Potential predictors of decreased OS on univariate analysis included age ≥ 50 years (p = 0.045), poor performance status (p = 0.048), weight loss (p = 0.045), T3-T4 tumors (p = 0.018), surgical margin positivity (p = 0.01), lymph node involvement (p = 0.001), lymphovascular invasion (p < 0.001), perineural invasion (p = 0.007), and poor histological grade (p = 0.042). For the multivariate analysis, only nodal status (hazard ratio [HR]1.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-3.65; p = 0.027) and surgical margin status (HR 2.61; 95% CI, 1.09-6.24; p = 0.03) were associated with OS. Conclusions: Nodal status and a positive surgical margin were independent predictors of a poor mOS for patients with ampullary carcinomas. Additional studies are required to explore the role of adjuvant therapy in patients with ampullary carcinomas.

Development and validation of web calculators to predict early recurrence and long-term survival in patients with duodenal papilla carcinoma after pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Duodenal papilla carcinoma (DPC) is prone to relapse even after radical pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (including robotic, laparoscopic and open approach). This study aimed to develop web calculators to predict early recurrence (ER) (within two years after surgery) and long-term survival in patients with DPC after PD.

METHODS

Patients with DPC after radical PD were included. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. Two web calculators were developed based on independent risk factors in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Of the 251 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 180 and 71 patients were enrolled in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that tumor size [Odds Ratio (OR) 1.386; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1070-1.797; P = 0.014]; number of lymph node metastasis (OR 2.535; 95% CI 1.114-5.769; P = 0.027), perineural invasion (OR 3.078; 95% CI 1.147-8.257; P = 0.026), and tumor differentiation (OR 3.552; 95% CI 1.132-11.152; P = 0.030) were independent risk factors for ER. Nomogram based on the above four factors achieved good C-statistics of 0.759 and 0.729 in predicting ER in the training and the validation cohorts, respectively. Time-dependent ROC analysis (timeROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram provided superior diagnostic capacity and net benefit compared with single variable.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed and validated two web calculators that can predict ER and long-term survival in patients with DPC with high degree of stability and accuracy.

Development and verification of prognostic nomogram for ampullary carcinoma based on the SEER database

Background

Ampullary carcinoma (AC) is a rare cancer of the digestive system that occurs in the ampulla at the junction of the bile duct and pancreatic duct. However, there is a lack of predictive models for overall survival (OS) and disease -specific survival (DSS) in AC. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with AC using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database.

Methods

Data from 891 patients between 2004 and 2019 were downloaded and extracted from the SEER database. They were randomly divided into the development group (70%) and the verification group (30%), and then univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively, was used to explore the possible risk factors of AC. The factors significantly related to OS and DSS were used to establish the nomogram, which was assessed via the concordance index (C-index), and calibration curve. An internal validation was conducted to test the accuracy and effectiveness of the nomogram. Kaplan-Meier calculation was used to predict the further OS and DSS status of these patients.

Results

On multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, the independent prognostic risk factors associated with OS were age, surgery, chemotherapy, regional node positive (RNP),extension range and distant metastasis with a moderate C-index of 0.731 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.719-0.744) and 0.766 (95% CI: 0.747-0.785) in the development and verification groups, respectively. While, marital status, surgery, chemotherapy, regional node positive (RNP),extension range and distant metastasis were significantly linked to AC patients' DSS, which have a better C-index of 0.756 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.741-0.770) and 0.781 (95% CI: 0.757-0.805) in the development and verification groups. Both the survival calibration curves of 3- and 5-year OS and DSS brought out a high consistency.

Conclusion

Our study yielded a satisfactory nomogram showing the survival of AC patients, which may help clinicians to assess the situation of AC patients and implement further treatment.

Ampulla of Vater carcinoma: advancement in the relationships between histological subtypes, molecular features, and clinical outcomes

The incidence of ampulla of Vater carcinoma, a type of periampullary cancer, has been increasing at an annual percentage rate of 0.9%. However, patients with ampulla of Vater carcinoma have quite different prognoses due to the heterogeneities of the tissue origin of this carcinoma. In addition to TNM staging, histological subtypes and molecular features of ampulla of Vater carcinoma are the key factors for predicting the clinical outcomes of patients. Fortunately, with the development of testing technology, information on the histological subtypes and molecular features of ampulla of Vater carcinoma is increasingly being analyzed in-depth. Patients with the pancreaticobiliary subtype have shorter survival times. In immunohistochemical examination, high cutoff values of positive MUC1 staining can be used to accurately predict the outcome of patients. Mutant KRAS, TP53, negative SMAD4 expression, and microsatellite stability are related to poor prognosis, while the clinical value of BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations is limited for prognosis. Testing the histological subtypes and molecular characteristics of ampulla of Vater carcinoma not only is the key to prognosis analysis but also provides extra information for targeted treatment to improve the clinical outcomes of patients.

Perioperative Outcomes and Long-Term Survival of Laparoscopic Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Retrospective Study of 653 Cases in a Single Institution

Introduction: Laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD) is gaining wide acceptance within pancreatic surgery. However, longitudinal data are lacking. The aim of this study was to analyze and assess the short-term outcomes and long-term survival of LPD over a duration of 8 years. Methods: Patients who underwent LPD in our institution between November 2013 and September 2021 were included in this study. The perioperative outcomes were statistically analyzed. The long-term survival was studied over a median follow-up duration of 13 months. Results: In total, 653 consecutive patients treated at our institution were included, of which 617 cases underwent standard LPD and 36 cases underwent LPD with vascular resection. The rate of death in hospital, reoperation, postpancreatectomy hemorrhage, postoperative pancreatic fistula, and delayed gastric emptying were 4.4%, 10.3%, 11.9%, 12.9%, and 6.1% respectively. There were statistical differences in the intraoperative blood loss and transfusion, operation time, and the R0 resection rate between the LPD cases and LPD with vascular resection cases. A total of 526 cases were pathologically diagnosed of cancer. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 49.2%, 17.9%, and 17.9%, respectively, for pancreatic cancer with the median survival time of 12 months. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 76.9%, 60.8%, and 52.5%, respectively, for bile duct cancer with the median survival time of 35 months. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 80.2%, 62.2%, and 52.9%, respectively, for duodenal cancer with the median survival time of 53 months. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 72.5%, 54.5%, and 50%, respectively, for ampullary cancer with the median survival time of 55 months. Conclusion: LPD is a feasible and oncologically acceptable procedure with satisfying perioperative outcomes and long-term survival in a high-volume institution.

Machine learning models for predicting survival in patients with ampullary adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to predict the long-term survival probability of patients with ampullary adenocarcinoma (AAC), which would provide a theoretical basis for the long-term care of these patients.

METHODS

Data on patients with AAC during 2004-2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, which were split at a 7:3 ratio into two independent cohorts: training and testing cohorts. Differences in survival between the two groups were tested using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and log-rank test methods. We constructed six survival analysis methods: the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM stage, Cox Proportional Hazards regression, CoxTime, DeepSurv, XGBoost Survival Embeddings, and Random Survival Forest. The performances of these models were evaluated using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and calibration curves.

RESULTS

This study included 2,935 patients with AAC. Univariate Cox regression analyses of the training cohort indicated that race, marital status at diagnosis, scope of regional lymph node surgery, tumor grade, summary stage, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, TNM stage T, and TNM stage N were important factors affecting survival (P ​< ​0.05). The results of the C-index indicated that DeepSurv performed the best among the six models, with the highest C-index of 0.731. The areas under the ROC curves of the DeepSurv model at the 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year time points were 0.823, 0.786, 0.803, and 0.813, respectively. The calibration curve indicated that DeepSurv performed well, with good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning models such as DeepSurv have a stronger performance in the survival analysis of patients with AAC.

Long-term survival and pattern of recurrence in ampullary adenocarcinoma patients after curative Whipple's resection: a retrospective cohort study in the National Cancer Center in China

Due to the low incidence of ampullary adenocarcinoma (AA), the recurrence patterns, risk factors for recurrence and post-recurrence treatment are still debated. The purpose of this study is to clarify such clinical issues based on the retrospective data at the National Cancer Center in China. Finally, one hundred and eighty-two AA patients after curative Whipple's resection from 1998 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Among them, 27 patients had locoregional recurrence and 61 patients had systemic recurrence. However, no significant difference of clinicopathological features and survival were found between locoregional recurrence and distant metastasis. In the recurrence group, the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year recurrence-free survival and overall survival were 59.1%, 29.5%, 10.2%, 88.6%, 61.6%, and 37.6%, respectively. AA patients with recurrence have a worse prognosis than those without recurrence, regardless of stage. In addition, we found that advanced T stage and lymphovascular invasion were two independent risk factors for RFS in AA patients after curative Whipple's resection. In conclusion, AA patients with recurrence have a poor prognosis. Advanced T stage and lymphovascular invasion were two independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival in AA patients after curative Whipple's resection. Nevertheless, further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to fully validate.

FDG-PET for preoperative evaluation of tumor invasion in ampullary cancer: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Tumor invasion is the most significant prognostic factor in ampullary cancer and is thus a crucial factor in decision making for treatment. Endoscopic ultrasound can be performed to evaluate tumor invasion, but its diagnostic accuracy varies depending on the endoscopist. This study aimed to assess the usefulness of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) for preoperatively predicting tumor invasion in ampullary cancer.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 44 patients with ampullary cancer (adenoma, n = 6; adenocarcinoma, n = 38) who underwent surgical resection. The SUVmax of the ampullary tumor site was assessed using FDG-PET, and the correlation among tumor invasion, lymph node metastasis, and other clinicopathological factors was evaluated.

RESULTS

The SUVmax of the ampullary tumor site gradually increased depending on the extent of tumor invasion (p = 0.0075). Moreover, the SUVmax was significantly different between ≤T1a and ≥T1b, which is an indication for endoscopic papillectomy or surgical resection (p = 0.0015). The SUVmax of the ampullary section was significantly correlated with lymph node metastasis (p = 0.035).

CONCLUSION

The SUVmax of the ampullary tumor site is correlated with tumor invasion and lymph node metastasis in ampullary cancer. Thus, FDG-PET can be a useful modality for preoperative staging and treatment strategy.

A Prognostic Scoring System for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients with the TNM 8th Edition Stage I and II Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Surgery: A Population-Based Study

PURPOSE

Postoperative prognosis prediction models for patients with stage Ⅰ and Ⅱ hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to the 8th edition of the Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system after surgery are rare. This study aimed to build a prognostic score to predict survival outcomes and stratify these patients into different prognostic strata.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a web-based nomogram that incorporated four selected risk factors based on the multivariate Cox regression, using a training set (n=3567) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. It was validated with an independent internal set from the SEER database (n=1783) and an external validation set of 516 Chinese patients. The predictive performance and discrimination ability of our model were further evaluated and compared with those of the conventional HCC staging systems.

RESULTS

Our nomogram consistently outperformed the conventional staging systems in the training, internal validation set, and external validation set. We quantified the nomogram model into a numerical SNIG (an abbreviation of the incorporated variables - size, number, MVI, and grade) score by summing the points assigned to each incorporated variable, leading to the optimal cut-off values of 6 and 10, which could stratify patients into 3 categories (SNIG score <6, 6-10, ≥10). This yielded significantly different median overall survivals (interquartile ranges) of 42.0 (20.0-72.0) and 37.0 (17.0-67.0); 28.0 (12.0-60.0) and 42.0 (21.75-82.0); 40.0 (18.0-70.0) and 29.0 (11.5-61.0) months for the 3 categories in the entire SEER and external validation sets, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed a web-based SNIG model to graphically and numerically predict the overall survival of stage Ⅰ and Ⅱ HCC. This scoring system may shed light on risk stratification for these patients in clinical practice and clinical trials.

The prognostic significance of inflammation-based scores in patients with ampullary carcinoma after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Background

Growing evidence indicates that the systemic inflammatory response plays an important role in cancer development and progression. Several inflammatory markers have been reported to be associated with clinical outcomes in patients with various types of cancer. This study was designed to evaluate the prognostic value of inflammatory indexes in patients with ampullary cancer (AC) who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the data of 358 patients with AC who underwent PD between 2009 and 2018. R software was used to compare the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUROCs) of the inflammation-based indexes, including the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and prognostic index (PI), in terms of their predictive value for survival. The survival differences of these indexes were compared by the Kaplan-Meier method and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the prognostic factors of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS).

Results

The estimated 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS and DFS rates were 83.9, 65.8, and 55.2% and 58.0, 42.8, and 37.8%, respectively, for the entire cohort. The survival differences were significant in terms of OS and DFS when patients were stratified by these inflammation-based indexes. The comparisons of the AUROCs of these inflammation-based indexes illustrated that NLR and PI displayed the highest prognostic value, compared to the other indexes. When NLR and PI were combined, NLR-PI showed even higher AUROC values and was identified as a significant prognostic factor for OS and DFS.

Conclusion

Specific inflammatory indexes, such as NLR, PLR and dNLR, were found to be able to predict the OS or DFS of patients. As a novel inflammatory index, the level of NLR-PI, which can be regarded as a more useful prognostic index, exhibited strong predictive power for predicting the prognosis of patients with AC after the PD procedure.

Development and external validation of a prediction model for survival in patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Ampullary adenocarcinoma (AAC) is a rare malignancy with great morphological heterogeneity, which complicates the prediction of survival and, therefore, clinical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a prediction model for survival after resection of AAC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An international multicenter cohort study was conducted, including patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for AAC (2006-2017) from 27 centers in 10 countries spanning three continents. A derivation and validation cohort were separately collected. Predictors were selected from the derivation cohort using a LASSO Cox proportional hazards model. A nomogram was created based on shrunk coefficients. Model performance was assessed in the derivation cohort and subsequently in the validation cohort, by calibration plots and Uno's C-statistic. Four risk groups were created based on quartiles of the nomogram score.

RESULTS

Overall, 1007 patients were available for development of the model. Predictors in the final Cox model included age, resection margin, tumor differentiation, pathological T stage and N stage (8th AJCC edition). Internal cross-validation demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.77). External validation in a cohort of 462 patients demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). A nomogram for the prediction of 3- and 5-year survival was created. The four risk groups showed significantly different 5-year survival rates (81%, 57%, 22% and 14%, p < 0.001). Only in the very-high risk group was adjuvant chemotherapy associated with an improved overall survival.

CONCLUSION

A prediction model for survival after curative resection of AAC was developed and externally validated. The model is easily available online via www.pancreascalculator.com.

Prognostic Factors of Long-term Survival Following Radical Resection for Ampullary Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater has been increasing over the past years. Nevertheless, it is still a rare disease and the prognostic factors predicting long-term survival are not sufficiently clarified. This study aims to evaluate the association between histopathological characteristics and long-term survival of patients with ampullary cancer after curative resection, as well as the efficiency of immunohistochemical expression of CK7, CK20, and CDX2 to distinguish the histopathological (intestinal or pancreaticobiliary) patterns.

METHODS

Demographic, histopathological data, pTNM stage, and immunohistochemical expression patterns were collected from 65 patients with adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater. Five and 10-year overall and disease-free survival rates after curative resection were determined.

RESULTS

Of the 65 patients with ampullary carcinoma, 47 (72%) underwent radical resection. The 5- and 10-year overall survival rate was 46% and 37%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the main prognostic factors were the presence and number of lymph node metastases, lymph node ratio (LNR), differentiation grade, and lymphovascular invasion. After multivariate analysis, only lymph node ratio ≥ 20% remained an independent prognostic factor of survival (HR: 2.63 95% CI: 1.05-6.61; p = 0.039).

CONCLUSION

Here, we demonstrated more evidence that the lymph node metastases are associated with poor prognosis in ampullary carcinoma. Particularly, the relation between the number of metastatic lymph nodes and the number of harvested lymph node (LNR) should be considered a major prognostic factor.

A Nomogram for Individual Prediction of Poor Prognosis After Radical Surgery in Patients with Primary Pancreatic Duct Adenocarcinoma

Background

Pancreatic cancer is a highly malignant tumor characterized by poor prognosis. TNM stage cannot always provide accurate prediction of prognosis, which is vital for individualized treatment. Therefore, a novel way to identify patients with poor prognosis after radical surgery is urgently needed.

Material/Methods

The nomogram was established based on a discovery cohort that included 554 patients with PDAC who had received radical surgery from 2012 to 2016. The clinicopathological data were collected. Poor prognosis was evaluated using 25 features, in which appropriate features for a prediction model were identified. A prediction model incorporating the selected features was established. The discriminative capacity was assessed by C-index, calibration by calibration plot, and clinical usefulness by decision curve. The bootstrapping approach was used to perform internal validation.

Results

Characteristics included in the nomogram were coronary artery disease and stroke history, elevated CA125, AJCC stage >II, R0 resection, operating time >6 h, poor differentiation, nerve invasion, length of stay >30 days, and postoperative complications. A C-index of 0.713 indicated good discrimination of the prediction model, and the calibration curve showed acceptable calibration. Survival analysis showed that this model had better discriminative capacity than the AJCC staging system and could distinguish relatively good prognosis from poor prognosis in patients at stage II (especially IIa) and IV.

Conclusions

Our study presents a valid and practical model to predict prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients, which contributes to individualized therapy by assisting surgeons to predict poor prognosis in patients who received radical surgery.

International validation and update of the Amsterdam model for prediction of survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to validate and update the Amsterdam prediction model including tumor grade, lymph node ratio, margin status and adjuvant therapy, for prediction of overall survival (OS) after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer between 2000 and 2017 at 11 tertiary centers in 8 countries (USA, UK, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands, Korea, Australia). Model performance for prediction of OS was evaluated by calibration statistics and Uno's C-statistic for discrimination. Validation followed the TRIPOD statement.

RESULTS

Overall, 3081 patients (53% male, median age 66 years) were included with a median OS of 24 months, of whom 38% had N2 disease and 77% received adjuvant chemotherapy. Predictions of 3-year OS were fairly similar to observed OS with a calibration slope of 0.72. Statistical updating of the model resulted in an increase of the C-statistic from 0.63 to 0.65 (95% CI 0.64-0.65), ranging from 0.62 to 0.67 across different countries. The area under the curve for the prediction of 3-year OS was 0.71 after updating. Median OS was 36, 25 and 15 months for the low, intermediate and high risk group, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This large international study validated and updated the Amsterdam model for survival prediction after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer. The model incorporates readily available variables with a fairly accurate model performance and robustness across different countries, while novel markers may be added in the future. The risk groups and web-based calculator www.pancreascalculator.com may facilitate use in daily practice and future trials.