Survival of patients with skeletal metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical management

Development and validation of an ensemble machine-learning model for predicting early mortality among patients with bone metastases of hepatocellular carcinoma

Purpose

Using an ensemble machine learning technique that incorporates the results of multiple machine learning algorithms, the study's objective is to build a reliable model to predict the early mortality among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with bone metastases.

Methods

We extracted a cohort of 124,770 patients with a diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and enrolled a cohort of 1897 patients who were diagnosed as having bone metastases. Patients with a survival time of 3 months or less were considered to have had early death. To compare patients with and without early mortality, subgroup analysis was used. Patients were randomly divided into two groups: a training cohort (n = 1509, 80%) and an internal testing cohort (n = 388, 20%). In the training cohort, five machine learning techniques were employed to train and optimize models for predicting early mortality, and an ensemble machine learning technique was used to generate risk probability in a way of soft voting, and it was able to combine the results from the multiply machine learning algorithms. The study employed both internal and external validations, and the key performance indicators included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Brier score, and calibration curve. Patients from two tertiary hospitals were chosen as the external testing cohorts (n = 98). Feature importance and reclassification were both operated in the study.

Results

The early mortality was 55.5% (1052/1897). Eleven clinical characteristics were included as input features of machine learning models: sex (p = 0.019), marital status (p = 0.004), tumor stage (p = 0.025), node stage (p = 0.001), fibrosis score (p = 0.040), AFP level (p = 0.032), tumor size (p = 0.001), lung metastases (p < 0.001), cancer-directed surgery (p < 0.001), radiation (p < 0.001), and chemotherapy (p < 0.001). Application of the ensemble model in the internal testing population yielded an AUROC of 0.779 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.727-0.820), which was the largest AUROC among all models. Additionally, the ensemble model (0.191) outperformed the other five machine learning models in terms of Brier score. In terms of decision curves, the ensemble model also showed favorable clinical usefulness. External validation showed similar results; with an AUROC of 0.764 and Brier score of 0.195, the prediction performance was further improved after revision of the model. Feature importance demonstrated that the top three most crucial features were chemotherapy, radiation, and lung metastases based on the ensemble model. Reclassification of patients revealed a substantial difference in the two risk groups' actual probabilities of early mortality (74.38% vs. 31.35%, p < 0.001). Patients in the high-risk group had significantly shorter survival time than patients in the low-risk group (p < 0.001), according to the Kaplan-Meier survival curve.

Conclusions

The ensemble machine learning model exhibits promising prediction performance for early mortality among HCC patients with bone metastases. With the aid of routinely accessible clinical characteristics, this model can be a trustworthy prognostic tool to predict the early death of those patients and facilitate clinical decision-making.

Radiotherapy for bone metastases of hepatocellular carcinoma: a hybrid systematic review with meta-analyses

INTRODUCTION

External beam radiation therapy (EBRT) is commonly used as a palliative treatment for bone metastases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We planned a hybrid systematic review that meta-analyzed the efficacy and feasibility of EBRT and reviewed the literature to answer specific clinical questions.

METHODS

The PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched through 1 December 2021. Primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and response rate (RR). Secondary endpoints were comparative data, including treatment response and survival related to dose escalation, number of metastases, and fractionation scheme. Formal pooled analyses were performed on the primary endpoints, and the secondary endpoints were systematically reviewed. Complications were also reviewed.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies involving 1613 patients with HCC and bone metastases were included. The median OS was 6 months (range: 3-13 months). The pooled one-year OS was 23.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.4-28.6); pooled pain RR was 81.5% (95% CI: 76.4-85.7) and of pain complete remission was 26.5% (95% CI: 21.7-32.0). Pain response might be related to dose escalation, considering the moderate consistency of results and plausibility, with a low-quality grade of evidence^†. Considering the indeterminate results, we cannot suggest that dose escalation is correlated with OS. The oligometastasis status might be related to better OS, considering the high consistency of results and plausibility with low to moderate quality of evidence. Hypofractionated EBRT might yield comparable efficacy to conventional EBRT, with a low-quality grade of evidence. There were few complications of grade ≥3, except for hematologic complications, which ranged from 11.5to 34%.

CONCLUSION

EBRT is an efficient and feasible palliative option. Clinical consideration of hematologic complications is necessary. Future studies are needed to increase the quality of evidence for actual clinical questions. ^†Reference to a system of the American Society for Radiation Oncology primary liver cancer clinical guidelines.

Optimizing radiotherapy with immune checkpoint blockade in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer, and its incidence is rapidly increasing in North America and Western Europe as well as South-East Asia. Patients with advanced stage HCC have very poor outcomes; therefore, the discovery of new innovative approaches is urgently needed. Cancer immunotherapy has become a game-changer and revolutionized cancer treatment. A comprehensive understanding of tumor-immune interactions led to the development of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) as new therapeutic tools, which have been used with great success. Targeting immune checkpoint molecules such as programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated protein-4 (CTLA-4) reinvigorates anti-tumor immunity by restoring exhausted T cells. Despite their effectiveness in several types of cancer, of the many immune suppressive mechanisms limit the efficacy of ICI monotherapy. Radiation therapy (RT) is an essential local treatment modality for a broad range of malignancies, and it is currently gaining extensive attention as a promising combination partner with ICIs because of its ability to trigger immunogenic cell death. The efficacy of combination approaches using RT and ICIs has been well documented in numerous preclinical and clinical studies on various types of cancers but not HCC. The application of ICIs has now expanded to HCC, and RT is recognized as a promising modality in HCC. This review will highlight the current roles of PD-1 and CTLA-4 therapies and their combination with RT in the treatment of cancers, including HCC. In addition, this review will discuss the future perspectives of the combination of ICIs and RT in HCC treatment.

Bone metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma: clinical features and prognostic factors

BACKGROUND

Bone metastases (BMs) from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an increasingly common disease in Asia. We assessed the clinical features, prognostic factors, and differences in outcomes related to BMs among patients with different treatments for HCC.

METHODS

Forty-three consecutive patients who were diagnosed with BMs from HCC between January 2010 and December 2014 were retrospectively enrolled. The clinical features were identified, the impacts of prognostic factors on survival were statistically analyzed, and clinical data were compared.

RESULTS

The median patient age was 54 years; 38 patients were male and 5 female. The most common site for BMs was the trunk (69.3%). BMs with extension to the soft tissue were found in 14 patients (32.5%). Most (90.7%) of the lesions were mixed osteolytic and osteoblastic, and most (69.8%) patients presented with multiple BMs. The median survival after BMs diagnosis was 11 months. In multivariate analyses, survival after BM diagnosis was correlated with Karnofsky performance status (P=0.008) and the Child-Pugh classification (P<0.001); BM-free survival was correlated with progression beyond the University of California San Francisco criteria (P<0.001) and treatment of primary tumors (P<0.001). BMs with extension to soft tissue were less common in liver transplantation patients. During metastasis, the control of intrahepatic tumors was improved in liver transplantation and hepatectomy patients, compared to conservatively treated patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The independent prognostic factors of survival after diagnosis of BMs were the Karnofsky performance status and Child-Pugh classification. HCC patients developed BMs may also benefit from liver transplantation or hepatectomy.

Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy for spinal metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma: its oncologic outcomes and risk of vertebral compression fracture

Spinal metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) require high-dose irradiation for durable pain and tumor control. Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) enables the delivery of high-dose radiation. However, but vertebral compression fracture (VCF) can be problematic. The aim of his study is to evaluate the outcome and risk of VCF after SABR for spinal metastasis from HCC. We retrospectively reviewed 33 lesions in 42 spinal segments from 29 patients who received SABR with 1 fraction (16-20 Gy), or 3 fractions (18-45 Gy) from September 2009 to January 2015. The 1-year local control (LC) rate was 68.3%. Radiographic grade of cord compression (RGCC) was the only independent prognostic factor associated with LC (P = 0.007). The 1-year ultimate LC rate including the outcome of salvage re-irradiation was 87.2%. The pain response rate was 73.3% according to the categories of the International Bone Metastases Consensus Group. The 1-year VCF-free rate was 71.5%. Pre-existing VCF (P < 0.001) and only-lytic change (P = 0.017) were associated with a higher post-SABR VCF rate. One-third of post-SABR VCFs required interventions. SABR for spinal metastases from HCC provided efficacious LC, especially for lesions with RGCC ≤ II, and showed effective and durable pain relief. As VCF after SABR occurred frequently for vertebral segments with pre-existing VCF and only-lytic change, early preventive vertebroplasty is considerable for those high-risk vertebral segments.

Factors associated with the decision of operative procedure for proximal femoral bone metastasis: Questionnaire survey to institutions participating the Bone and Soft Tissue Tumor Study Group of the Japan Clinical Oncology Group

BACKGROUND

Pathological fracture of the proximal femur is a main cause of cancer patients losing their ability to walk. Although both osteosynthetic devices (predominantly intramedullary nails) and prosthetic replacement have been widely performed for treatment, controversies exist regarding which procedure should be used for the various conditions. In order to decide the eligibility criteria of a planned randomized prospective study about the treatment of pathological fractures of the proximal femur, we assessed the factors affecting the selection of operative procedures using questionnaires sent to the members of the Bone and Soft Tissue Tumor Study Group (BSTTSG) of the Japan Clinical Oncology Group (JCOG).

METHODS

Questionnaire surveys to evaluate (1) the priority levels of the factors, (2) the equipoise range of each factor in situations where either procedure could be applied, (3) risk and benefit of each procedure, and (4) the degree of bone destruction affecting the selection of operative procedures, were sent to 26 institutions.

RESULTS

Over 80% of the institutions answered. Orthopaedic surgeons of BSTTSG decided on the procedure according to the following factors in descending order: life expectancy, performance status before fracture, the degree of bone destruction, walking ability before fracture, general complications, the number of bone metastases in other sites, and the visceral metastasis status. With regard to bone destruction, (1) the involvement of the head, neck, calcar, and intertrochanteric region, (2) transverse destruction >1/2, and (3) soft-tissue tumor extension, were the factors that led to the choice of prosthesis treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Using these identified factors, the inclusion criteria for the prospective randomized study of the surgical treatment of metastatic bone tumors of the proximal femur were optimized. The evaluation system about the bone destruction of metastases needs to be refined through the following prospective randomized study.

Metastatic bone disease: A review of survival, prognostic factors and outcomes following surgical treatment of the appendicular skeleton

Survival data and prognostic factors may help to provide insight when deciding on the appropriate orthopaedic treatment for patients presenting with metastatic bone disease. This review was conducted to look at the outcomes following orthopaedic surgery for metastatic lesions in the extremities. The literature was identified through the Medline and Embase database and further refined via a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Overall, patients presenting with metastatic bone disease from renal cell cancer or breast cancer had the longest survival rate. Important factors found to predict prognosis was the presence of visceral metastasis, multiple metastases, pathological fracture and the type of primary tumour involved. These prognostic factors may help to direct future inquiry into metastatic bone disease and help determine the type of surgery to use in a metastatic setting in order to avoid complications and unnecessary revisions as well as provide durability.

Efficacy of limb salvage with primary tumor resection simultaneously for solitary bone metastasis in limbs

Background

This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of limb salvage with primary tumor resection on patients with solitary bone metastasis.

Methods

A retrospective treatment outcome review was performed on 20 patients with solitary bone metastasis as the primary clinical symptom who were admitted to the hospital between 2006 and 2010. With primary tumor resection, 18/20 patients received limb salvage surgery simultaneously. Pain scoring was assessed using the 0 to 10 numerical rating scale. The quality of life scoring was performed before and 3 months after surgery using the SF-30 scoring system. In addition, limb function was assessed 3 months after the operation using the Scoring System of American Musculoskeletal Tumor Society system (MSTS).

Results

The pain symptom was significantly ameliorated after the operation (t = 26.653, P < 0.001), and the quality of life dramatically improved (t = −20.581, P < 0.001). The postoperative MSTS scores ranged from 18 to 27. The average score was 23.10 ± 2.36. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that no significant differences (χ2 = 1.589, P = 0.207) were observed in the tumor-free survival time between the wide and marginal resections.

Conclusions

The application of the wide or marginal excision for the primary lesion and bony metastasis focus, based on the principles of primary bone tumors, can significantly relieve the pain and improve the quality of life and limb function of patients whose solitary bone metastasis was manifested as the first sign.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12957-016-0786-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Natural history of malignant bone disease in hepatocellular carcinoma: final results of a multicenter bone metastasis survey

Background

Bone is an uncommon site of metastasis in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, there are few studies concerning the natural history of bone metastasis in patients with HCC.

Patients and Methods

Data on clinicopathology, survival, skeletal-related events (SREs), and bone-directed therapies for 211 deceased HCC patients with evidence of bone metastasis were statistically analyzed.

Results

The median age was 70 years; 172 patients were male (81.5%). The median overall survival was 19 months. The median time to the onset of bone metastasis was 13 months (22.2% at HCC diagnosis); 64.9% patients had multiple bone metastases. Spine was the most common site of bone metastasis (59.7%). Most of these lesions were osteolytic (82.4%); 88.5% of them were treated with zoledronic acid. At multivariate analysis, only the Child Score was significantly correlated with a shorter time to diagnosis of bone metastases (p = 0.001, HR = 1.819). The median survival from bone metastasis was 7 months. At multivariate analysis, HCC etiology (p = 0.005), ECOG performance status (p = 0.002) and treatment with bisphosphonate (p = 0.024) were associated with shorter survival after bone disease occurrence. The site of bone metastasis but not the number of bone lesions was associated with the survival from first skeletal related event (SRE) (p = 0.021) and OS (p = 0.001).

Conclusions

This study provides a significant improvement in the understanding the natural history of skeletal disease in HCC patients. An early and appropriate management of these patients is dramatically needed in order to avoid subsequent worsening of their quality of life.