phastSim: Efficient simulation of sequence evolution for pandemic-scale datasets

Phylogenetic minimum description length: an optimality criterion based on algorithmic complexity

Phylogenetic minimum description length (PMDL) is proposed as an optimality criterion for phylogenetic analysis. PMDL is based on algorithmic (Kolmogorov) information and the minimum description length principle. This criterion generates natural weighting functions (i.e. not being externally specified) for a diversity of phylogenetic graph, data and model types. PMDL is a generalized criterion that converges on existing forms of inference (i.e. parsimony, likelihood, Bayesian) in specific circumstances. Furthermore, as opposed to existing criteria, PMDL includes graph complexity allowing for the competition of hypotheses with myriad types of phylogenetic graphs (e.g. trees, networks, forests). Owing to its compound nature, PMDL allows for analytical model choice along with phylogenetic graph hypothesis while avoiding over-parameterization. Although uncomputable, heuristic methods are presented for the calculation of upper bounds on the algorithmic information content of a phylogenetic hypothesis. Examples are presented demonstrating the approach.

Reference-Free Variant Calling with Local Graph Construction with ska lo (SKA)

The study of genomic variants is increasingly important for public health surveillance of pathogens. Traditional variant-calling methods from whole-genome sequencing data rely on reference-based alignment, which can introduce biases and require significant computational resources. Alignment- and reference-free approaches offer an alternative by leveraging k-mer-based methods, but existing implementations often suffer from sensitivity limitations, particularly in high mutation density genomic regions. Here, we present ska lo, a graph-based algorithm that aims to identify within-strain variants in pathogen whole-genome sequencing data by traversing a colored De Bruijn graph and building variant groups (i.e. sets of variant combinations). Through in silico benchmarking and real-world dataset analyses, we demonstrate that ska lo achieves high sensitivity in single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) calls while also enabling the detection of insertions and deletions, as well as SNP positioning on a reference genome for recombination analyses. These findings highlight ska lo as a simple, fast, and effective tool for pathogen genomic epidemiology, extending the range of reference-free variant-calling approaches. ska lo is freely available as part of the SKA program (https://github.com/bacpop/ska.rust).

Addressing pandemic-wide systematic errors in the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny

The SARS-CoV-2 genome occupies a unique place in infection biology - it is the most highly sequenced genome on earth (making up over 20% of public sequencing datasets) with fine scale information on sampling date and geography, and has been subject to unprecedented intense analysis. As a result, these phylogenetic data are an incredibly valuable resource for science and public health. However, the vast majority of the data was sequenced by tiling amplicons across the full genome, with amplicon schemes that changed over the pandemic as mutations in the viral genome interacted with primer binding sites. In combination with the disparate set of genome assembly workflows and lack of consistent quality control (QC) processes, the current genomes have many systematic errors that have evolved with the virus and amplicon schemes. These errors have significant impacts on the phylogeny, and therefore over the last few years, many thousands of hours of researchers time has been spent in "eyeballing" trees, looking for artefacts, and then patching the tree. Given the huge value of this dataset, we therefore set out to reprocess the complete set of public raw sequence data in a rigorous amplicon-aware manner, and build a cleaner phylogeny. Here we provide a global tree of 4,471,579 samples, built from a consistently assembled set of high quality consensus sequences from all available public data as of June 2024, viewable at https://viridian.taxonium.org. Each genome was constructed using a novel assembly tool called Viridian (https://github.com/iqbal-lab-org/viridian), developed specifically to process amplicon sequence data, eliminating artefactual errors and mask the genome at low quality positions. We provide simulation and empirical validation of the methodology, and quantify the improvement in the phylogeny. We hope the tree, consensus sequences and Viridian will be a valuable resource for researchers.

Seamless, rapid, and accurate analyses of outbreak genomic data using split k-mer analysis

Sequence variation observed in populations of pathogens can be used for important public health and evolutionary genomic analyses, especially outbreak analysis and transmission reconstruction. Identifying this variation is typically achieved by aligning sequence reads to a reference genome, but this approach is susceptible to reference biases and requires careful filtering of called genotypes. There is a need for tools that can process this growing volume of bacterial genome data, providing rapid results, but that remain simple so they can be used without highly trained bioinformaticians, expensive data analysis, and long-term storage and processing of large files. Here we describe split k-mer analysis (SKA2), a method that supports both reference-free and reference-based mapping to quickly and accurately genotype populations of bacteria using sequencing reads or genome assemblies. SKA2 is highly accurate for closely related samples, and in outbreak simulations, we show superior variant recall compared with reference-based methods, with no false positives. SKA2 can also accurately map variants to a reference and be used with recombination detection methods to rapidly reconstruct vertical evolutionary history. SKA2 is many times faster than comparable methods and can be used to add new genomes to an existing call set, allowing sequential use without the need to reanalyze entire collections. With an inherent absence of reference bias, high accuracy, and a robust implementation, SKA2 has the potential to become the tool of choice for genotyping bacteria. SKA2 is implemented in Rust and is freely available as open-source software.

Online Phylogenetics with matOptimize Produces Equivalent Trees and is Dramatically More Efficient for Large SARS-CoV-2 Phylogenies than de novo and Maximum-Likelihood Implementations

Phylogenetics has been foundational to SARS-CoV-2 research and public health policy, assisting in genomic surveillance, contact tracing, and assessing emergence and spread of new variants. However, phylogenetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 have often relied on tools designed for de novo phylogenetic inference, in which all data are collected before any analysis is performed and the phylogeny is inferred once from scratch. SARS-CoV-2 data sets do not fit this mold. There are currently over 14 million sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes in online databases, with tens of thousands of new genomes added every day. Continuous data collection, combined with the public health relevance of SARS-CoV-2, invites an "online" approach to phylogenetics, in which new samples are added to existing phylogenetic trees every day. The extremely dense sampling of SARS-CoV-2 genomes also invites a comparison between likelihood and parsimony approaches to phylogenetic inference. Maximum likelihood (ML) and pseudo-ML methods may be more accurate when there are multiple changes at a single site on a single branch, but this accuracy comes at a large computational cost, and the dense sampling of SARS-CoV-2 genomes means that these instances will be extremely rare because each internal branch is expected to be extremely short. Therefore, it may be that approaches based on maximum parsimony (MP) are sufficiently accurate for reconstructing phylogenies of SARS-CoV-2, and their simplicity means that they can be applied to much larger data sets. Here, we evaluate the performance of de novo and online phylogenetic approaches, as well as ML, pseudo-ML, and MP frameworks for inferring large and dense SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies. Overall, we find that online phylogenetics produces similar phylogenetic trees to de novo analyses for SARS-CoV-2, and that MP optimization with UShER and matOptimize produces equivalent SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies to some of the most popular ML and pseudo-ML inference tools. MP optimization with UShER and matOptimize is thousands of times faster than presently available implementations of ML and online phylogenetics is faster than de novo inference. Our results therefore suggest that parsimony-based methods like UShER and matOptimize represent an accurate and more practical alternative to established ML implementations for large SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies and could be successfully applied to other similar data sets with particularly dense sampling and short branch lengths.

AliSim-HPC: parallel sequence simulator for phylogenetics

MOTIVATION

Sequence simulation plays a vital role in phylogenetics with many applications, such as evaluating phylogenetic methods, testing hypotheses, and generating training data for machine-learning applications. We recently introduced a new simulator for multiple sequence alignments called AliSim, which outperformed existing tools. However, with the increasing demands of simulating large data sets, AliSim is still slow due to its sequential implementation; for example, to simulate millions of sequence alignments, AliSim took several days or weeks. Parallelization has been used for many phylogenetic inference methods but not yet for sequence simulation.

RESULTS

This paper introduces AliSim-HPC, which, for the first time, employs high-performance computing for phylogenetic simulations. AliSim-HPC parallelizes the simulation process at both multi-core and multi-CPU levels using the OpenMP and message passing interface (MPI) libraries, respectively. AliSim-HPC is highly efficient and scalable, which reduces the runtime to simulate 100 large gap-free alignments (30 000 sequences of one million sites) from over one day to 11 min using 256 CPU cores from a cluster with six computing nodes, a 153-fold speedup. While the OpenMP version can only simulate gap-free alignments, the MPI version supports insertion-deletion models like the sequential AliSim.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

AliSim-HPC is open-source and available as part of the new IQ-TREE version v2.2.3 at https://github.com/iqtree/iqtree2/releases with a user manual at http://www.iqtree.org/doc/AliSim.

Maximum likelihood pandemic-scale phylogenetics

Phylogenetics has a crucial role in genomic epidemiology. Enabled by unparalleled volumes of genome sequence data generated to study and help contain the COVID-19 pandemic, phylogenetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have shed light on the virus's origins, spread, and the emergence and reproductive success of new variants. However, most phylogenetic approaches, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, cannot scale to the size of the datasets from the current pandemic. We present 'MAximum Parsimonious Likelihood Estimation' (MAPLE), an approach for likelihood-based phylogenetic analysis of epidemiological genomic datasets at unprecedented scales. MAPLE infers SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies more accurately than existing maximum likelihood approaches while running up to thousands of times faster, and requiring at least 100 times less memory on large datasets. This extends the reach of genomic epidemiology, allowing the continued use of accurate phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses on datasets of millions of genomes.

Correlated substitutions reveal SARS-like coronaviruses recombine frequently with a diverse set of structured gene pools

Quantifying SARS-like coronavirus (SL-CoV) evolution is critical to understanding the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and the molecular processes that could underlie future epidemic viruses. While genomic analyses suggest recombination was a factor in the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, few studies have quantified recombination rates among SL-CoVs. Here, we infer recombination rates of SL-CoVs from correlated substitutions in sequencing data using a coalescent model with recombination. Our computationally-efficient, non-phylogenetic method infers recombination parameters of both sampled sequences and the unsampled gene pools with which they recombine. We apply this approach to infer recombination parameters for a range of positive-sense RNA viruses. We then analyze a set of 191 SL-CoV sequences (including SARS-CoV-2) and find that ORF1ab and S genes frequently undergo recombination. We identify which SL-CoV sequence clusters have recombined with shared gene pools, and show that these pools have distinct structures and high recombination rates, with multiple recombination events occurring per synonymous substitution. We find that individual genes have recombined with different viral reservoirs. By decoupling contributions from mutation and recombination, we recover the phylogeny of non-recombined portions for many of these SL-CoVs, including the position of SARS-CoV-2 in this clonal phylogeny. Lastly, by analyzing >400,000 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences, we show current diversity levels are insufficient to infer the within-population recombination rate of the virus since the pandemic began. Our work offers new methods for inferring recombination rates in RNA viruses with implications for understanding recombination in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and the structure of clonal relationships and gene pools shaping its origins.

AliSim: a fast and versatile phylogenetic sequence simulator for the genomic era

Sequence simulators play an important role in phylogenetics. Simulated data has many applications, such as evaluating the performance of different methods, hypothesis testing with parametric bootstraps, and, more recently, generating data for training machine-learning applications. Many sequence simulation programs exist, but the most feature-rich programs tend to be rather slow, and the fastest programs tend to be feature-poor. Here, we introduce AliSim, a new tool that can efficiently simulate biologically realistic alignments under a large range of complex evolutionary models. To achieve high performance across a wide range of simulation conditions, AliSim implements an adaptive approach that combines the commonly-used rate matrix and probability matrix approaches. AliSim takes 1.4 hours and 1.3 GB RAM to simulate alignments with one million sequences or sites, while popular software Seq-Gen, Dawg, and INDELible require two to five hours and 50 to 500 GB of RAM. We provide AliSim as an extension of the IQ-TREE software version 2.2, freely available at www.iqtree.org, and a comprehensive user tutorial at http://www.iqtree.org/doc/AliSim.

Maximum likelihood pandemic-scale phylogenetics.. [PMID: 35350209 PMCID: PMC8963701 DOI: 10.1101/2022.03.22.485312]

Genomic data plays an essential role in the study of transmissible disease, as exemplified by its current use in identifying and tracking the spread of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, with the increase in size of genomic epidemiological datasets, their phylogenetic analyses become increasingly impractical due to high computational demand. In particular, while maximum likelihood methods are go-to tools for phylogenetic inference, the scale of datasets from the ongoing pandemic has made apparent the urgent need for more computationally efficient approaches. Here we propose a new likelihood-based phylogenetic framework that greatly reduces both the memory and time demand of popular maximum likelihood approaches when analysing many closely related genomes, as in the scenario of SARS-CoV-2 genome data and more generally throughout genomic epidemiology. To achieve this, we rewrite the classical Felsenstein pruning algorithm so that we can infer phylogenetic trees on at least 10 times larger datasets with higher accuracy than existing maximum likelihood methods. Our algorithms provide a powerful framework for maximum-likelihood genomic epidemiology and could facilitate similarly groundbreaking applications in Bayesian phylogenomic analyses as well.