How convincing is a matching Y-chromosome profile?

Considerations on the application of a mutation model for Y-STR interpretation

If Y-STR profiling is to be more effective in criminal casework, the methods used to evaluate evidential weight require improvement. Many forensic scientists assign an evidential weight by estimating the number of times a Y-STR profile obtained from a questioned sample has been observed in YHRD datasets. More sophisticated models have been suggested but not yet implemented into routine casework, e.g. Andersen & Balding [1]. Mutation is inherent to STR meiosis (or inheritance) and is encountered in practice. We evaluated a mutation model that can be incorporated into a method for assigning evidential weight to Y-STR profiles, an essential part of bringing any method into practice. Since an important part of implementation to casework is communication, the article is written in an accessible format for practitioners as well as statisticians. The mutation component within the MUTEA model by Willems et al. [2] incorporates the potential for multistep mutations and a tendency for alleles to revert towards a central length, reflecting observed mutation data, e.g. [3]. We have estimated the parameters in this model and in a simplified symmetric version of this model, using sequence data from father/son pairs [4] and deep-rooted pedigrees [5]. Both datasets contain multistep mutations, which may have an effect on models based on simulations [1]. We introduce Beta-Binomial and Beta-Geometric conjugate analyses for estimating rate and step parameters for the mutation models presented here, which require only summations and multiplications. We proved mathematically that the parameters can be estimated independently. We show the importance of reporting the variability of the parameters and not only a point estimate. The parameters can be easily incorporated into statistical models, and updated sequentially as more data becomes available. We recommend fuller publication of data to enable the development and evaluation of a wider range of mutation models.

Extending the discrete Laplace method: incorporating multi-copy loci, partial repeats and null alleles

The discrete Laplace method can be used to estimate the frequency of a Y-chromosomal STR haplotype using a random sample from the population. Two limitations of the method are the assumptions that each profile has exactly one allele at every locus and that this allele has an integer repeat number. We relax these assumptions to allow for multi-copy loci, partial repeats and null alleles. We show how the parameters to the extension of the model can be estimated by numerical optimisation using an off-the-shelf solver. Concordance with the discrete Laplace method is obtained when the data satisfy the more stringent assumptions of the original method. We also investigate the performance of the (extended) discrete Laplace method when used to assign match probabilities for haplotypes. A simulation study shows that as more loci are used, match probabilities are underestimated more severely. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the discrete Laplace method cannot model the matches that arise by being identical by descent (IBD). As the number of loci increases the fraction of matches that are IBD increases. Simulation provides support that the discrete Laplace can model those matches that arise from identity by state (IBS) only.

Magnetic bead-based separation of sperm cells from semen-vaginal fluid mixed stains using an anti-ACRBP antibody

Forensic DNA analysis of semen-vaginal fluid mixed stains is essential and necessary in sexual assault cases. Here, we used a magnetic bead conjugated acrosin binding protein (ACRBP) antibody to separate and enrich sperm cells from mixed stains. Previously, western blotting indicated that ACRBP was specifically expressed in sperm cells, but not in female blood and epithelial cells, while immunofluorescence data showed ACRBP was localized to the acrosome in sperm cells. In our study, sperm were separated from mixed samples at three sperm cell/female buccal epithelial cell ratios (10³:10³; 10³:10⁴; and 10³:10⁵) using a magnetic bead conjugated ACRBP antibody. Subsequently, 23 autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) loci were amplified using the Huaxia™ Platinum PCR Amplification System and genotyped using capillary electrophoresis. The genotyping success rate for STR loci was 90% when the sperm to female buccal epithelial cell ratio was > 1:100 in mixed samples. Our results suggest that the magnetic bead conjugated ACRBP antibody is effective for isolating sperm cells in sexual assault cases.

Weight of evidence of Y-STR matches computed with the discrete Laplace method: Impact of adding a suspect's profile to a reference database

The discrete Laplace method is recommended by multiple parties (including the International Society for Forensic Genetics, ISFG) to estimate the weight of evidence in criminal cases when a suspect's Y-STR profile matches the crime scene Y-STR profile. Unfortunately, modelling the distribution of Y-STR profiles in the population reference database is time-consuming and requires expert knowledge. When the suspect's Y-STR profile is added to the database, as would be the protocol in many cases, the parameters of the discrete Laplace model must be re-estimated. We found that the likelihood ratios with and without adding the suspect's Y-STR profile were almost identical with 1,000 or more Y-STR profiles in the database for Y-STR profiles with 8, 12, and 17 loci. Thus, likelihood ratio calculations can be performed in seconds if an established discrete Laplace model based on at least 1,000 Y-STR profiles is used. A match in a population reference database with 17 Y-STR loci from at least 1,000 male individuals results in a likelihood ratio above 10,000 in approximately 94% of the cases, and above 100,000 in approximately 82% of the cases. We offer free software accessible without restrictions to estimate a discrete Laplace model using a Y-STR reference database and subsequently to calculate likelihood ratios.

Y-STR mixture deconvolution by single-cell analysis

Since Y-STR typing only amplifies male Y chromosomal DNA, it can simplify the interpretation of some DNA mixtures that contain female DNA. However, if there are multiple male contributors, mixed Y-STR DNA profiles will often be obtained. Y-STR mixture analysis cases are particularly challenging though as, currently, there are no validated probabilistic genotyping (PG) software solutions commercially available to aid in their interpretation. One approach to fully deconvoluting these challenging mixtures into their individual donors is to conduct single-cell genotyping by isolating individual cells from a mixture prior to conducting DNA typing. In this work, a physical micromanipulation technique involving a tungsten needle and direct PCR with decreased reaction volume and increased cycle number was applied to equimolar 2- and 3-person buccal cell male DNA mixtures and a mock touch DNA case scenario involving the consecutive firing of a handgun by two males. A consensus DNA profiling approach was then utilized to obtain YFiler™ Plus Y-STR haplotypes. Buccal cells were used to optimize and test the direct single-cell subsampling approach, and 2-3 person male buccal cell mixtures were fully deconvoluted into their individual donor Y-STR haplotypes. Single-cell (or agglomerated cell clump) subsampling from the gun's trigger recovered single-source Y-STR profiles from both individuals who fired the gun, the owner, and the other unrelated male. Only the non-owner's DNA was found in the cells recovered from the handle. In summary, direct single-cell subsampling as described represents a potential simple way to analyze and interpret Y-STR mixtures.

On the Forensic Use of Y-Chromosome Polymorphisms

Nowadays, the use of Y-chromosome polymorphisms forms an essential part of many forensic DNA investigations. However, this was not always the case. Only since 1992 have we seen that some forensic scientists started to have an interest in this chromosome. In this review, I will sketch a brief history focusing on the forensic use of Y-chromosome polymorphisms. Before describing the various applications of short-tandem repeats (STRs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on the Y-chromosome, I will discuss a few often ignored aspects influencing proper use and interpretation of Y-chromosome information: (i) genotyping Y-SNPs and Y-STRs, (ii) Y-STR haplotypes shared identical by state (IBS) or identical by descent (IBD), and (iii) Y-haplotype database frequencies.

Interpretation of DNA data within the context of UK forensic science - investigation

This article is the second part of a review of the interpretation of DNA data in forensic science. The first part describes the evaluation of autosomal profile for criminal trials where an evidential weight is assigned to the profile of a person of interest (POI) and a crime-scene profile. This part describes the state of the art and future advances in the interpretation of forensic DNA data for providing intelligence information during an investigation. Forensic DNA is crucial in the investigative phase of an undetected crime where a POI needs to be identified. A sample taken from a crime scene is profiled using a range of forensic DNA tests. This review covers investigation using autosomal profiles including searching national and international crime and reference DNA databases. Other investigative methodologies described are kinship analysis; familial searching; Y chromosome (Y-STR) and mitochondrial (mtDNA) profiles; appearance prediction and geographic ancestry; forensic genetic genealogy; and body identification. For completeness, the evaluation of Y-STRs, mtDNA and kinship analysis are briefly described. Taken together, parts I and II, cover the range of interpretation of DNA data in a forensic context.

The Y chromosome and its use in forensic DNA analysis

Originally relatively ignored in forensic investigations because its genetic analysis lacks inference of individual identification, the value of Y chromosome analysis has been proven in cases of sexual assault, particularly where the amount of material left by a male assailant is limited in comparison with female DNA. All routine analysis of autosomal DNA, however, targets a gene (AMELY) on the Y chromosome in order to identify the sex of the DNA source and this is discussed in the context of the genetic structure of this male-specific chromosome. Short-tandem repeat markers on the chromosome are tested in dedicated multiplexes that have developed over time and these are described alongside international guidance as to their use in a forensic setting. As a marker of lineage, the Y chromosome provides additional tools to assist in the inference of ancestry, both geographical and familial and the value of Y chromosome testing is illustrated through descriptions of cases of criminal and historical interest. A decision to analyse the Y chromosome has to be considered in the context, not only of the circumstances of the case, but also with regard to the ethical questions it might raise, and these are discussed in relation to the cases that have been described in more detail in the accompanying online supplementary material.

Assessing the Forensic Value of DNA Evidence from Y Chromosomes and Mitogenomes

Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA profiles have been used as evidence in courts for decades, yet the problem of evaluating the weight of evidence has not been adequately resolved. Both are lineage markers (inherited from just one parent), which presents different interpretation challenges compared with standard autosomal DNA profiles (inherited from both parents). We review approaches to the evaluation of lineage marker profiles for forensic identification, focussing on the key roles of profile mutation rate and relatedness (extending beyond known relatives). Higher mutation rates imply fewer individuals matching the profile of an alleged contributor, but they will be more closely related. This makes it challenging to evaluate the possibility that one of these matching individuals could be the true source, because relatives may be plausible alternative contributors, and may not be well mixed in the population. These issues reduce the usefulness of profile databases drawn from a broad population: larger populations can have a lower profile relative frequency because of lower relatedness with the alleged contributor. Many evaluation methods do not adequately take account of distant relatedness, but its effects have become more pronounced with the latest generation of high-mutation-rate Y profiles.

Developmental validation of the Yfiler Platinum PCR Amplification Kit for forensic genetic caseworks and databases

Y chromosome kits are successfully applied in cases where human biological material exists. With the development of genotyping ability, more Y chromosomal markers are needed for finer identification of male individuals and lineages. In this study, a developmental validation of a newly emerged Y chromosome kit that combines two different kinds of markers: 38 Y-STRs and 3 Y-indels are conducted. The results show that this kit has high sensitivity when there is a small amount of DNA (125 pg), more than one male (minor:major = 1:7), or a mixture of males and females (male:female = 125pg:1875pg), inhibited substances (800 μM hematin and more than 1600 ng/μL humic acid). The kit exhibits high precision level with a standard deviation of allele size no more than 0.14 nt. Locus DYS481 shows the largest stutter rate, with three stutters per true allele. Population samples are well identified (MP of 0.001106), and mutations can be observed in father-son pairs (46 mutations in 70 pairs, 10 in locus DYS627). Out of all the population samples, 13.2% belong to haplogroup M117-O2a2b1a1, with their ethnic group being Han Chinese. The results show that this kit can improve the performance of identifying male individuals, obtaining more unique haplotypes (increasing from 894 to 918 of 1000 male samples) and higher discrimination capacity (increasing from 0.942 to 0.955) in this study compared to previous widely used Yfiler Plus kit. Besides, it gives information about their paternal lineages in forensic genetic casework and genealogical database construction.

Consistent estimation of Y STR haplotype probabilities

Many methods have been proposed to estimate Y-STR haplotype probabilities in a population, but no consensus has been achieved. In this paper a consistency principle for statistical models to provide such probabilities is proposed, in which it is required that the probability of a given haplotype profile on n loci cannot exceed that of any sub-haplotype matching on any n - 1 or fewer loci. If this consistency principle is violated by a Y haplotype probability model, then it could render the presentation of such probabilities highly problematic in a courtroom setting. We show, using publicly available datasets and two recently proposed graphical models for estimating probabilities of Y-STR haplotypes for illustration, that such violations can occur, and that the violations can in some instances be quite large. Some implications of this are discussed.

Mutational data and population profiling of 23 Y-STRs in three Brazilian populations

Y-chromosomal STRs are important markers in forensic genetics, due to some peculiar characteristics. The absence of recombination makes them a useful tool to infer kinship in complex cases involving distant paternal relatives, or to infer paternal bio-geographic ancestry. The presence of a single copy, being transmitted from father to son, allow tracing mutational events in Y-STRs without ambiguity. For the statistical interpretation of forensic evidences based on Y-STR profiles, it is necessary to have estimates on both mutation rates and haplotype frequencies. In this work, 407 father-son duos from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states and 204 unrelated individuals from Manaus were analyzed. Haplotype frequencies and mutation rates for the Y-STRs from the PowerPlex Y23 commercial kit were estimated. Thirty-six mutations were observed in 15 of the 22 Y-STRs analyzed, for an average mutation rate of 3.84 × 10^-3 (95 % CI 2.69 × 10^-3 to 5.32 × 10^-3). All mutations in GAAA repeats occurred in alleles with 13 or more uninterrupted units. Mutations in GATA repeats were observed in alleles with 9-17 uninterrupted units. An analysis carried out in different father's age groups showed an increase of 2.48 times the mutation rate in the age group of 40-50 years, when compared to the 20-30 age group, in agreement with the described for autosomal STRs. A high haplotype diversity was found in the three Brazilian populations. Pairwise genetic distance analysis (F_ST) showed no significant differences between the three populations in this study, which were also close to populations with strong European influence. The highest distances among the Brazilian populations were with São Gabriel da Cachoeira, which has a high Native American ancestry.

DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics (ISFG): Recommendations on the interpretation of Y-STR results in forensic analysis

Forensic genetic laboratories perform a large amount of STR analyses of the Y chromosome, in particular to analyze the male part of complex DNA mixtures. However, the statistical interpretation of evidence retrieved from Y-STR haplotypes is challenging. Due to the uni-parental inheritance mode, Y-STR loci are connected to each other and thus haplotypes show patterns of relationship on the familial and population level. This precludes the treatment of Y-STR loci as independently inherited variables and the application of the product rule. Instead, the dependency structure of Y-STRs needs to be included in the haplotype frequency estimation process affecting also the current paradigm of a random match probability that is in the autosomal case approximated by the population frequency assuming unrelatedness of sampled individuals. Information on the degree of paternal relatedness in the suspect population as well as on the familial network is however needed to interpret Y-chromosomal results in the best possible way. The previous recommendations of the DNA commission of the ISFG on the use of Y-STRs in forensic analysis published more than a decade ago [1] cover the interpretation issue only marginally. The current recommendations address a number of topics (frequency estimators, databases, metapopulations, LR formulation, triage, rapidly mutating Y-STRs) with relevance for the Y-STR statistics and recommend a decision-based procedure, which takes into account legal requirements as well as availability of population data and statistical methods.

A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to the Rare Type Match Problem

The "rare type match problem" is the situation in which, in a criminal case, the suspect's DNA profile, matching the DNA profile of the crime stain, is not in the database of reference. Ideally, the evaluation of this observed match in the light of the two competing hypotheses (the crime stain has been left by the suspect or by another person) should be based on the calculation of the likelihood ratio and depends on the population proportions of the DNA profiles that are unknown. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric method that uses a two-parameter Poisson Dirichlet distribution as a prior over the ranked population proportions and discards the information about the names of the different DNA profiles. This model is validated using data coming from European Y-STR DNA profiles, and the calculation of the likelihood ratio becomes quite simple thanks to an Empirical Bayes approach for which we provided a motivation.

Ysurnames? The patrilineal Y-chromosome and surname correlation for DNA kinship research

The Y-chromosome is a widely studied and useful small part of the genome providing different applications for interdisciplinary research. In many (Western) societies, the Y-chromosome and surnames are paternally co-inherited, suggesting a corresponding Y-haplotype for every namesake. While it has already been observed that this correlation may be disrupted by a false-paternity event, adoption, anonymous sperm donor or the co-founding of surnames, extensive information on the strength of the surname match frequency (SMF) with the Y-chromosome remains rather unknown. For the first time in Belgium and the Netherlands, we were able to study this correlation using 2,401 males genotyped for 46 Y-STRs and 183 Y-SNPs. The SMF was observed to be dependent on the number of Y-STRs analyzed, their mutation rates and the number of Y-STR differences allowed for a kinship. For a perfect match, the Yfiler® Plus and our in-house YForGen kit gave a similar high SMF of 98%, but for non-perfect matches, the latter could overall be identified as the best kit. The SMF generally increased due to less mismatches when encountering [1] deep Y-subhaplogroups, [2] less frequently occurring surnames, and [3] small geographical distances between relatives. This novel information enabled the design of a surname prediction model based on genetic and geographical distances of a kinship. The prediction model has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9 and is therefore useable for DNA kinship priority listing in estimation applications like forensic familial searching.

A game of hide and seq: Identification of parallel Y-STR evolution in deep-rooting pedigrees

Short tandem repeats on the Y-chromosome (Y-STRs) are common DNA polymorphisms useful for genetic genealogy, population and evolutionary genetics, human genetics, pathology and forensic sciences. It is important to identify all Y-STR variants and to have knowledge of Y-STR mutation rates in order to correctly estimate the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) between paternally related individuals. When capillary electrophoresis (CE) is performed to analyze genealogical pairs, Y-STR sequence variations remain hidden when the number of repeats is identical. These hidden variations could be due to parallel Y-STR changes or modifications (PM) that occur independently in different lineages leading to alleles with identical number of repeats. In this study, we detect for the first time twelve PM by analyzing 133 males (960 meiosis) in extended deep-rooting family pedigrees on 42 Y-STRs. These PM were observed in nine Y-STR loci with mutation rates of at least 5.94 × 10^-3 per generation. Sequencing analysis made it possible to distinguish insertions/deletions in different repeat regions revealing the presence of two unique changes in three PM on rapidly mutating and complex Y-STRs DYS724-ab and DYS518. Sequencing unraveled more information concerning the identity of alleles, and increased allelic discrimination possibilities which is of great importance in population genetics and forensic analysis. Limiting the analysis to CE could lead to wrong ancestral allele assumptions, to false negative interpretations and to tMRCA underestimations. These observations highlight the importance and added value of sequencing analysis and suggest a shift in genotyping methods from CE to next generation sequencing.

How many individuals share a mitochondrial genome?

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is useful to assist with identification of the source of a biological sample, or to confirm matrilineal relatedness. Although the autosomal genome is much larger, mtDNA has an advantage for forensic applications of multiple copy number per cell, allowing better recovery of sequence information from degraded samples. In addition, biological samples such as fingernails, old bones, teeth and hair have mtDNA but little or no autosomal DNA. The relatively low mutation rate of the mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) means that there can be large sets of matrilineal-related individuals sharing a common mitogenome. Here we present the mitolina simulation software that we use to describe the distribution of the number of mitogenomes in a population that match a given mitogenome, and investigate its dependence on population size and growth rate, and on a database count of the mitogenome. Further, we report on the distribution of the number of meioses separating pairs of individuals with matching mitogenome. Our results have important implications for assessing the weight of mtDNA profile evidence in forensic science, but mtDNA analysis has many non-human applications, for example in tracking the source of ivory. Our methods and software can also be used for simulations to help validate models of population history in human or non-human populations.

Y-profile evidence: Close paternal relatives and mixtures

We recently introduced a new approach to the evaluation of weight of evidence (WoE) for Y-chromosome profiles. Rather than attempting to calculate match probabilities, which is particularly problematic for modern Y-profiles with high mutation rates, we proposed using simulation to describe the distribution of the number of males in the population with a matching Y-profile, both the unconditional distribution and conditional on a database frequency of the profile. Here we further validate the new approach by showing that our results are robust to assumptions about the allelic ladder and the founder haplotypes, and we extend the approach in two important directions. Firstly, forensic databases are not the only source of background data relevant to the evaluation of Y-profile evidence: in many cases the Y-profiles of one or more relatives of the accused are also available. To date it has been unclear how to use this additional information, but in our simulation-based approach its effect is readily incorporated. We describe this approach and illustrate how the WoE that a man was the source of an observed Y-profile changes when the Y-profiles of some of his male-line relatives are also available. Secondly, we extend our new approach to mixtures of Y-profiles from two or more males. Surprisingly, our simulation-based approach reveals that observing a 2-male mixture that includes an alleged contributor's profile is almost as strong evidence as observing a matching single-contributor evidence sample, and even 3-male and 4-male mixtures are only slightly weaker.

Match probabilities for Y-chromosomal profiles: A paradigm shift

Calculating match probabilities for genetic profiles under the hypothesis that a person of interest (henceforth the 'suspect') is not the donor of a particular forensic trace is challenging because the reference population is usually not clear-defined in such cases. Hence, the concept of 'suspect population' was introduced to allow for the fact that possible alternative trace donors often resemble the suspect in terms of their geographic, ethnic and social affiliation. In fact, they may even be genetically related to the suspect. Although the possibility of relatedness affects the size of the match probability in general, this is not a practically relevant issue for autosomal profiles owing to the stochastic independence of the markers included. The situation is, however, different for Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat (STR) profiles. Here, almost all profile matches are likely to be identical by descent, and profile identity may be common even among distantly related males. The degree of relatedness between suspect and alternative trace donors is thus a critical aspect of the evaluation of Y-chromosomal STR profile matches. All methods hitherto proposed to derive match probabilities for such cases, including our own, were anti-conservative in that they equated the suspect population to a database population (of virtually unrelated individuals). The nature of the true suspect population, however, is usually unknown and hard, if not impossible, to determine so that calculation of proper match probabilities remains a difficult task. Therefore, since lower Y-chromosomal match probabilities would result from higher mutation rates, even for close relatives, future research should rather focus upon the characterization of novel and more mutable Y-chromosomal STRs.

DNA commission of the International society for forensic genetics: Assessing the value of forensic biological evidence - Guidelines highlighting the importance of propositions: Part I: evaluation of DNA profiling comparisons given (sub-) source propositions

The interpretation of evidence continues to be one of the biggest challenges facing the forensic community. This is the first of two papers intended to provide advice on difficult aspects of evaluation and in particular on the formulation of propositions. The scientist has a dual role: investigator (crime-focused), where often there is no suspect available and a database search may be required; evaluator (suspect-focused), where the strength of evidence is assessed in the context of the case. In investigative mode, generally the aim is to produce leads regarding the source of the DNA. Sub-source level propositions will be adequate to help identify potential suspects who can be further investigated by the authorities. Once in evaluative mode, given the defence version of events of the person of interest, it may become necessary to consider alternatives that go beyond the source of the DNA (i.e., to consider activity level propositions). In the evaluation phase, it is crucial that formulation of propositions allows the assessment of all the results that will help with the issue at hand. Propositions should therefore be precise (indication of the number of contributors, information on the relevant population etc.), be about causes, not effects (e.g. a 'matching' DNA profile) and to avoid bias, must not be findings-led. This means that ideally, propositions should be decided based on the case information and before the results of the comparisons are known. This paper primarily reflects upon what has been coined as "sub-source level propositions". These are restricted to the evaluation of the DNA profiles themselves, and help answer the issue regarding the source of the DNA. It is to be emphasised that likelihood ratios given sub-source level propositions cannot be carried over to a different level - for example, activity level propositions, where the DNA evidence is put into the context of the alleged activities. This would be highly misleading and could give rise to miscarriages of justice; this will be discussed in a second paper. The value of forensic results depends not only on propositions, but also on the type of results (e.g. allelic designations, peak heights, replicates) and upon the model used: it is therefore important to discuss these aspects. Finally, since communication is key to help understanding by courts, we will explore how to convey the value of the results and explain the importance of avoiding the practice of transposing the conditional.