Interpreting the pervasive observation of U-shaped Site Frequency Spectra

Population genomics and molecular epidemiology of wheat powdery mildew in Europe

Agricultural diseases are a major threat to sustainable food production. Yet, for many pathogens we know exceptionally little about their epidemiological and population dynamics, and this knowledge gap is slowing the development of efficient control strategies. Here we study the population genomics and molecular epidemiology of wheat powdery mildew, a disease caused by the biotrophic fungus Blumeria graminis forma specialis tritici (Bgt). We sampled Bgt across two consecutive years, 2022 and 2023, and compiled a genomic dataset of 415 Bgt isolates from 22 countries in Europe and surrounding regions. We identified a single epidemic unit in the north of Europe, consisting of a highly homogeneous population. Conversely, the south of Europe hosts smaller local populations which are less interconnected. In addition, we show that the population structure can be largely predicted by the prevalent wind patterns. We identified several loci that were under selection in the recent past, including fungicide targets and avirulence genes. Some of these loci are common between populations, while others are not, suggesting different local selective pressures. We reconstructed the evolutionary history of one of these loci, AvrPm17, coding for an effector recognized by the wheat receptor Pm17. We found evidence for a soft sweep on standing genetic variation. Multiple AvrPm17 haplotypes, which can partially escape recognition by Pm17, spread rapidly throughout the continent upon its introduction in the early 2000s. We also identified a new virulent variant, which emerged more recently and can evade Pm17 resistance altogether. Overall, we highlight the potential of genomic surveillance in resolving the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of agricultural pathogens, as well as in guiding control strategies.

Detecting deviations from Kingman coalescence using 2-site frequency spectra

Demographic inference methods in population genetics typically assume that the ancestry of a sample can be modeled by the Kingman coalescent. A defining feature of this stochastic process is that it generates genealogies that are binary trees: no more than 2 ancestral lineages may coalesce at the same time. However, this assumption breaks down under several scenarios. For example, pervasive natural selection and extreme variation in offspring number can both generate genealogies with "multiple-merger" events in which more than 2 lineages coalesce instantaneously. Therefore, detecting violations of the Kingman assumptions (e.g. due to multiple mergers) is important both for understanding which forces have shaped the diversity of a population and for avoiding fitting misspecified models to data. Current methods to detect deviations from Kingman coalescence in genomic data rely primarily on the site frequency spectrum (SFS). However, the signatures of some non-Kingman processes (e.g. multiple mergers) in the SFS are also consistent with a Kingman coalescent with a time-varying population size. Here, we present a new statistical test for determining whether the Kingman coalescent with any population size history is consistent with population data. Our approach is based on information contained in the 2-site joint frequency spectrum (2-SFS) for pairs of linked sites, which has a different dependence on the topologies of genealogies than the SFS. Our statistical test is global in the sense that it can detect when the genome-wide genetic diversity is inconsistent with the Kingman model, rather than detecting outlier regions, as in selection scan methods. We validate this test using simulations and then apply it to demonstrate that genomic diversity data from Drosophila melanogaster is inconsistent with the Kingman coalescent.

Hill-Robertson interference may bias the inference of fitness effects of new mutations in highly selfing species

The accurate estimation of the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of new mutations is critical for population genetic inference but remains a challenging task. While various methods have been developed for DFE inference using the site frequency spectrum of putatively neutral and selected sites, their applicability in species with diverse life history traits and complex demographic scenarios is not well understood. Selfing is common among eukaryotic species and can lead to decreased effective recombination rates, increasing the effects of selection at linked sites, including interference between selected alleles. We employ forward simulations to investigate the limitations of current DFE estimation approaches in the presence of selfing and other model violations, such as linkage, departures from semidominance, population structure, and uneven sampling. We find that distortions of the site frequency spectrum due to Hill-Robertson interference in highly selfing populations lead to mis-inference of the deleterious DFE of new mutations. Specifically, when inferring the distribution of selection coefficients, there is an overestimation of nearly neutral and strongly deleterious mutations and an underestimation of mildly deleterious mutations when interference between selected alleles is pervasive. In addition, the presence of cryptic population structure with low rates of migration and uneven sampling across subpopulations leads to the false inference of a deleterious DFE skewed towards effectively neutral/mildly deleterious mutations. Finally, the proportion of adaptive substitutions estimated at high rates of selfing is substantially overestimated. Our observations apply broadly to species and genomic regions with little/no recombination and where interference might be pervasive.

Alpine Extremophytes in Evolutionary Turmoil: Complex Diversification Patterns and Demographic Responses of a Halophilic Grass in a Central Asian Biodiversity Hotspot

Diversification and demographic responses are key processes shaping species evolutionary history. Yet we still lack a full understanding of ecological mechanisms that shape genetic diversity at different spatial scales upon rapid environmental changes. In this study, we examined genetic differentiation in an extremophilic grass Puccinellia pamirica and factors affecting its population dynamics among the occupied hypersaline alpine wetlands on the arid Pamir Plateau in Central Asia. Using genomic data, we found evidence of fine-scale population structure and gene flow among the localities established across the high-elevation plateau as well as fingerprints of historical demographic expansion. We showed that an increase in the effective population size could coincide with the Last Glacial Period, which was followed by the species demographic decline during the Holocene. Geographic distance plays a vital role in shaping the spatial genetic structure of P. pamirica alongside with isolation-by-environment and habitat fragmentation. Our results highlight a complex history of divergence and gene flow in this species-poor alpine region during the Late Quaternary. We demonstrate that regional climate specificity and a shortage of nonclimate data largely impede predictions of future range changes of the alpine extremophile using ecological niche modeling. This study emphasizes the importance of fine-scale environmental heterogeneity for population dynamics and species distribution shifts.

Long-term evolution of Streptococcus mitis and Streptococcus pneumoniae leads to higher genetic diversity within rather than between human populations

Evaluation of the apportionment of genetic diversity of human bacterial commensals within and between human populations is an important step in the characterization of their evolutionary potential. Recent studies showed a correlation between the genomic diversity of human commensal strains and that of their host, but the strength of this correlation and of the geographic structure among human populations is a matter of debate. Here, we studied the genomic diversity and evolution of the phylogenetically related oro-nasopharyngeal healthy-carriage Streptococcus mitis and Streptococcus pneumoniae, whose lifestyles range from stricter commensalism to high pathogenic potential. A total of 119 S. mitis genomes showed higher within- and among-host variation than 810 S. pneumoniae genomes in European, East Asian and African populations. Summary statistics of the site-frequency spectrum for synonymous and non-synonymous variation and ABC modelling showed this difference to be due to higher ancestral bacterial population effective size (Ne) in S. mitis, whose genomic variation has been maintained close to mutation-drift equilibrium across (at least many) generations, whereas S. pneumoniae has been expanding from a smaller ancestral bacterial population. Strikingly, both species show limited differentiation among human populations. As genetic differentiation is inversely proportional to the product of effective population size and migration rate (Nem), we argue that large Ne have led to similar differentiation patterns, even if m is very low for S. mitis. We conclude that more diversity within than among human populations and limited population differentiation must be common features of the human microbiome due to large Ne.

The expected sample allele frequencies from populations of changing size via orthogonal polynomials

In this article, discrete and stochastic changes in (effective) population size are incorporated into the spectral representation of a biallelic diffusion process for drift and small mutation rates. A forward algorithm inspired by Hidden-Markov-Model (HMM) literature is used to compute exact sample allele frequency spectra for three demographic scenarios: single changes in (effective) population size, boom-bust dynamics, and stochastic fluctuations in (effective) population size. An approach for fully agnostic demographic inference from these sample allele spectra is explored, and sufficient statistics for stepwise changes in population size are found. Further, convergence behaviours of the polymorphic sample spectra for population size changes on different time scales are examined and discussed within the context of inference of the effective population size. Joint visual assessment of the sample spectra and the temporal coefficients of the spectral decomposition of the forward diffusion process is found to be important in determining departure from equilibrium. Stochastic changes in (effective) population size are shown to shape sample spectra particularly strongly.

Bursts of coalescence within population pedigrees whenever big families occur

We consider a simple diploid population-genetic model with potentially high variability of offspring numbers among individuals. Specifically, against a backdrop of Wright-Fisher reproduction and no selection, there is an additional probability that a big family occurs, meaning that a pair of individuals has a number of offspring on the order of the population size. We study how the pedigree of the population generated under this model affects the ancestral genetic process of a sample of size two at a single autosomal locus without recombination. Our population model is of the type for which multiple-merger coalescent processes have been described. We prove that the conditional distribution of the pairwise coalescence time given the random pedigree converges to a limit law as the population size tends to infinity. This limit law may or may not be the usual exponential distribution of the Kingman coalescent, depending on the frequency of big families. But because it includes the number and times of big families, it differs from the usual multiple-merger coalescent models. The usual multiple-merger coalescent models are seen as describing the ancestral process marginal to, or averaging over, the pedigree. In the limiting ancestral process conditional on the pedigree, the intervals between big families can be modeled using the Kingman coalescent but each big family causes a discrete jump in the probability of coalescence. Analogous results should hold for larger samples and other population models. We illustrate these results with simulations and additional analysis, highlighting their implications for inference and understanding of multilocus data.

Learning predictive signatures of HLA type from T-cell repertoires

T cells recognize a wide range of pathogens using surface receptors that interact directly with pep-tides presented on major histocompatibility complexes (MHC) encoded by the HLA loci in humans. Understanding the association between T cell receptors (TCR) and HLA alleles is an important step towards predicting TCR-antigen specificity from sequences. Here we analyze the TCR alpha and beta repertoires of large cohorts of HLA-typed donors to systematically infer such associations, by looking for overrepresentation of TCRs in individuals with a common allele.TCRs, associated with a specific HLA allele, exhibit sequence similarities that suggest prior antigen exposure. Immune repertoire sequencing has produced large numbers of datasets, however the HLA type of the corresponding donors is rarely available. Using our TCR-HLA associations, we trained a computational model to predict the HLA type of individuals from their TCR repertoire alone. We propose an iterative procedure to refine this model by using data from large cohorts of untyped individuals, by recursively typing them using the model itself. The resulting model shows good predictive performance, even for relatively rare HLA alleles.