Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Merits and boundaries of the BCLC staging and treatment algorithm: Learning from the past to improve the future with a novel proposal

In this Expert Opinion, we thoroughly analyse the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging and treatment algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that, since 1999, has standardised HCC management, offering a structured approach for the prognostic evaluation and treatment of patients with HCC. The first part of the article presents the strengths and evolutionary improvements of the BCLC staging system. Nevertheless, both patient characteristics and available treatments have changed in the last two decades, limiting the role of the BCLC criteria for treatment allocation in a growing number of patients. As therapeutic options expand and become more effective, the stage-linked treatment decision-making algorithm may lead to undertreatment and suboptimal outcomes for patients with disease beyond early-stage HCC. Consequently, strict adherence to BCLC criteria is limited in expert centres, particularly for patients diagnosed beyond early-stage HCC. Although the BCLC system remains the benchmark against which other therapeutic frameworks must be judged, the era of precision medicine calls for patient-tailored therapeutic decision-making (by a multidisciplinary tumour board) rather than stage-dictated treatment allocation. Acknowledging this conceptual difference in clinical management, the second part of the article describes a novel "multiparametric therapeutic hierarchy", which integrates a comprehensive assessment of clinical factors, biomarkers, technical feasibility, and resource availability. Lastly, considering the increasing efficacy of locoregional and systemic treatments, the concept of "converse therapeutic hierarchy" is introduced. These treatments can increase the feasibility (conversion approach) and effectiveness (adjuvant approach of systemic therapy) of potentially curative approaches to greatly improve clinical outcomes.

Liver-directed moderately hypo-fractionated radiotherapy combined with pembrolizumab and bevacizumab for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a retrospective observational study of 23 cases

Background

Programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) or its ligand (PD-L1) monoclonal antibody combined with bevacizumab (a monoclonal antibody targeting vascular endothelial growth factor) has been established as first-line systemic treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Radiotherapy is a crucial local treatment for HCC. Mutual efficacy enhancement has been reported between radiotherapy, anti-angiogenesis therapy and immunotherapy in preclinical researches, but not been validated in clinical practice. Whether radiotherapy can enhance efficacy of anti-PD-1 immunotherapy plus bevacizumab for HCC remains unclear. This retrospective observational study aimed to appraise efficacy and safety of the combination of radiotherapy with pembrolizumab (a PD-1 monoclonal antibody) and bevacizumab for advanced HCC for the first time.

Methods

Patients with advanced HCC treated by intrahepatic tumor-directed moderately hypo-fractionated radiotherapy combined with pembrolizumab and bevacizumab were consecutively included. Clinicopathological characteristics, therapeutic outcomes and treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) were recorded and evaluated.

Results

A total of 23 patients were eventually enrolled. Median cycles of pembrolizumab and bevacizumab were 4 (median, 1-8) and 4 (median, 1-9) cycles. The objective response rates and disease control rates of irradiated intrahepatic HCC and non-irradiated extrahepatic HCC were 34.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 16.4-57.3%] vs. 10.0% (95% CI, 1.2-31.7%), and 91.3% (95% CI, 72.0-98.9%) vs. 70.0% (95% CI, 45.7-88.1%), respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 6.6 (95% CI, 4.7-8.5) and 18.3 (95% CI, 8.2-33.6) months, and 12-month PFS and OS rates were 17.5% (95% CI, 7.0-28.0%) and 60.9% (95% CI, 50.7-71.1%). Two patients (8.7%) with locally advanced, unresectable HCC eventually underwent curative resection of tumors after this trimodal treatment. Eighteen patients (78.3%) had ≥ grade 3 TRAEs, with myelosuppression and transaminase increase as the most common.

Conclusions

This study firstly reported that combining radiotherapy with pembrolizumab and bevacizumab was preliminarily a feasible and effective therapeutic choice for advanced HCC in despite of more TRAEs. This tri-modal regimen may be a potential conversion therapy for unresectable, locally advanced HCC. The limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and small sample size; therefore, big-sample prospective studies are warranted to further investigate this tri-modal regimen.

Evaluation of Multiple Liver Cancer Scoring Systems

Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the world, and its incidence and mortality are increasing year by year. The prognosis of liver cancer depends on the stage of liver cancer, the treatment method, the liver function, and individual differences. The prognosis of liver cancer mainly worsens with the progression of the stage. The prediction and staging system of liver cancer prognosis plays a very important role in the outcome of liver cancer prognosis, providing some guidance for clinical practice and bringing benefits for patients. This article reports on the prediction models and staging systems that have been applied in the field of liver cancer in the past 5 years, objectively analyzes the advantages and disadvantages, applicable population of each model and staging system, and searches for other patient and clinical characteristics that need to be considered for successfully establishing a prediction model, aiming to improve the specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of liver cancer prediction and increase the overall survival rate of liver cancer.

Development of a Model including MRI Features for Predicting Advanced-stage Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Liver Resection

Background Identifying patients at high risk for advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver resection may improve patient survival. Purpose To develop a model including MRI features for predicting postoperative advanced-stage HCC recurrence. Materials and Methods This single-center, retrospective study includes consecutive adult patients who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI and curative-intent resection for early- to intermediate-stage HCC (from December 2011 to April 2021). Three radiologists evaluated 52 qualitative features on MRI scans. In the training set, Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazard analysis was performed to identify clinical, laboratory, imaging, pathologic, and surgical variables to include in the predictive model. In the test set, the concordance index (C-index) was computed to compare the developed model with current staging systems. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. Results The study included 532 patients (median age, 54 years; IQR, 46-62 years; 465 male patients), 302 patients from the training set (median age, 54 years; IQR, 46-63 years; 265 male patients), and 128 patients from the test set (median age, 53 years; IQR, 46-63 years; 108 male patients). Advanced-stage recurrence was observed in 38 of 302 (12.6%) and 15 of 128 (11.7%) of patients from the training and test sets, respectively. Serum neutrophil count (109/L), tumor size (in centimeters), and arterial phase hyperenhancement proportion on MRI scans were associated with advanced-stage recurrence (subdistribution hazard ratio range, 1.16-3.83; 95% CI: 1.02, 7.52; P value range, <.001 to .02) and included in the predictive model. The model showed better test set prediction for advanced-stage recurrence than four staging systems (2-year C-indexes, 0.82 [95% CI: 0.74, 0.91] vs 0.63-0.68 [95% CI: 0.52, 0.82]; P value range, .001-.03). Patients at high risk for HCC recurrence (model score, ≥15 points) showed increased advanced-stage recurrence and worse all-stage recurrence-free survival (RFS), advanced-stage RFS, and overall survival than patients at low risk for HCC recurrence (P value range, <.001 to .02). Conclusion A model combining serum neutrophil count, tumor size, and arterial phase hyperenhancement proportion predicted advanced-stage HCC recurrence better than current staging systems and may identify patients at high risk. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Tsai and Mellnick in this issue.

Methylated SEPT9 assay-based liquid biopsy as a biomarker in molecular targeted agent-treated hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The development of molecular targeted agents (MTAs) has changed the treatment strategy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, currently, there are no established predictive biomarkers for the treatment efficacy of MTAs. Previously, we developed a novel liquid biopsy test for HCC screening using sensitive methylated DNA testing of septin 9 gene (SEPT9). Here, we hypothesized that SEPT9 could be used as a biomarker for MTA treatment efficacy.

METHODS

We enrolled 157 patients receiving sorafenib or lenvatinib as a first-line therapy and allocated 85 and 72 patients to the training and validation cohorts, respectively. For the methylation assay, DNA was treated with methylation-sensitive restriction enzymes, followed by multiplex droplet digital PCR. Various clinical parameters were compared with clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

The multivariate analysis revealed Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (≥ 1; p = 0.048), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥ 400 ng/mL; p < 0.001), and methylated-septin-9 (m-SEPT9) (≥ 205 copies/mL; p = 0.018) as significant predictors of poor overall survival (OS) in the training cohort. m-SEPT9 was identified as a predictor of poor OS in the validation cohort. We developed a predictive score, called the MTA score, consisting of these three significant OS parameters (two points were added for AFP and one point for each of the other predictors). Patients with MTA scores ≥ 2 showed a significantly poor prognosis compared to those with MTA scores ≤ 1 in both the training and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

m-SEPT9 could be a potential predictive biomarker for survival in patients with HCC treated with MTAs.

Hepatectomy combined with apatinib and camrelizumab for CNLC stage IIIb hepatocellular carcinoma: a phase II trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

Current clinical guidelines recommend systematic antitumour therapy as the primary treatment option for patients with stage IIIb hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the China liver cancer (CNLC) staging criteria. Several different targeted therapeutics have been applied in combination with immunotherapeutic regimens to date in patients with advanced HCC. The present study was developed to evaluate the relative safety and efficacy of hepatectomy of HCC in combination with targeted apatinib treatment and immunotherapeutic camrelizumab treatment CNLC-IIIb stage HCC patients with the goal of providing evidence regarding the potential value of this therapeutic regimen in individuals diagnosed with advanced HCC.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a multicentre phase II trial with single-arm in which patients undergo hepatectomy in combination with targeted treatment (apatinib) and immunotherapy (camrelizumab). Patients will undergo follow-up every 2-3 months following treatment initiation to record any evidence of disease progression and adverse event incidence for a minimum of 24 months following the discontinuation of treatment until reaching study endpoint events or trial termination. The primary endpoint for this study is patient mortality.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital (KS2022[124]). The results of this study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05062837.

Surgical Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Multicenter Competing-risk Analysis of Tumor-related Death Following Liver Resection and Transplantation Under an Intention-to-treat Perspective

BACKGROUND

Early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma could benefit from upfront liver resection (LR) or liver transplantation (LT), but the optimal strategy in terms of tumor-related outcomes is still debated. We compared the oncological outcomes of LR and LT for hepatocellular carcinoma, stratifying the study population into a low-, intermediate-, and high-risk class according to the risk of death at 5-y predicted by a previously developed prognostic model. The impact of tumor pathology on oncological outcomes of low- and intermediate-risk patients undergoing LR was investigated as a secondary outcome.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective multicentric cohort study involving 2640 patients consecutively treated by LR or LT from 4 tertiary hepatobiliary and transplant centers between 2005 and 2015, focusing on patients amenable to both treatments upfront. Tumor-related survival and overall survival were compared under an intention-to-treat perspective.

RESULTS

We identified 468 LR and 579 LT candidates: 512 LT candidates underwent LT, whereas 68 (11.7%) dropped-out for tumor progression. Ninety-nine high-risk patients were selected from each treatment cohort after propensity score matching. Three and 5-y cumulative incidence of tumor-related death were 29.7% and 39.5% versus 17.2% and 18.3% for LR and LT group ( P = 0.039), respectively. Low-risk and intermediate-risk patients treated by LR and presenting satellite nodules and microvascular invasion had a significantly higher 5-y incidence of tumor-related death (29.2% versus 12.5%; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk patients showed significantly better intention-to-treat tumor-related survival after upfront LT rather than LR. Cancer-specific survival of low- and intermediate-risk LR patients was significantly impaired by unfavorable pathology, suggesting the application of ab-initio salvage LT in such scenarios.

Prognostic factors and survival prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma: development and validation of a novel nomogram based on the SEER database

Background

Current staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still have limitations in clinical practice. Our study aimed to explore the prognostic factors and develop a new nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with HCC.

Methods

A total of 6,166 HCC patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly grouped into the training cohort (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify prognostics factors for CSS of patients, then we incorporated these variables and presented a new nomogram to predict 2- and 5-year CSS. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to its calibration, concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, race, grade, surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, tumor size, bone metastasis (BM), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were independently associated with CSS. The prediction nomogram which contained these predictors showed good performance, with a C-index of 0.802 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.792-0.812] in the training cohort and 0.801 (95% CI, 0.787-0.815) in the validation cohort. The calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction. Furthermore, the nomogram showed improved discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.873 and 0.875 for 2- and 5-year CSS in validation set) compared to the 7th tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (AUC, 0.735 and 0.717). The DCA also indicated good application of the nomogram.

Conclusions

This study presents a novel nomogram that incorporates the important prognostic factors of HCC, which can be conveniently used to accurately predict the 2- and 5-year CSS of patients with HCC, thus assisting individualized clinical decision making.

Landscape of alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the last 15 years highlights the need to expand surveillance programs

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol abuse and metabolic disorders are leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Alcohol-related aetiology is associated with a worse prognosis compared with viral agents, because of the lower percentage of patients diagnosed with HCC under routine surveillance and a higher burden of comorbidity in alcohol abusers. This study aimed to describe the evolving clinical scenario of alcohol-related HCC over 15 years (2006-2020) in Italy.

METHODS

Data from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) registry were used: 1,391 patients were allocated to three groups based on the year of HCC diagnosis (2006-2010; 2011-2015; 2016-2020). Patient characteristics, HCC treatment, and overall survival were compared among groups. Survival predictors were also investigated.

RESULTS

Approximately 80% of alcohol-related HCCs were classified as cases of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease. Throughout the quinquennia, <50% of HCCs were detected by surveillance programmes. The tumour burden at diagnosis was slightly reduced but not enough to change the distribution of the ITA.LI.CA cancer stages. Intra-arterial and targeted systemic therapies increased across quinquennia. A modest improvement in survival was observed in the last quinquennia, particularly after 12 months of patient observation. Cancer stage, HCC treatment, and presence of oesophageal varices were independent predictors of survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In the past 15 years, modest improvements have been obtained in outcomes of alcohol-related HCC, attributed mainly to underuse of surveillance programmes and the consequent low amenability to curative treatments. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease is a widespread condition in alcohol abusers, but its presence did not show a pivotal prognostic role once HCC had developed. Instead, the presence of oesophageal varices, an independent poor prognosticator, should be considered in patient management and refining of prognostic systems.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Alcohol abuse is a leading and growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide and is associated with a worse prognosis compared with other aetiologies. We assessed the evolutionary landscape of alcohol-related HCC over 15 years in Italy. A high cumulative prevalence (78%) of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease, with signs of metabolic dysfunction, was observed in HCC patients with unhealthy excessive alcohol consumption. The alcohol + metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease condition tended to progressively increase over time. A modest improvement in survival occurred over the study period, likely because of the persistent underuse of surveillance programmes and, consequently, the lack of improvement in the cancer stage at diagnosis and the patients' eligibility for curative treatments. Alongside the known prognostic factors for HCC (cancer stage and treatment), the presence of oesophageal varices was an independent predictor of poor survival, suggesting that this clinical feature should be carefully considered in patient management and should be included in prognostic systems/scores for HCC to improve their performance.

Tumor burden in patients with early and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver resection: a retrospective multicenter study on clinical and oncological outcomes

BACKGROUND

According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, liver resection (LR) is recommended for early-stage (BCLC-A) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but not for intermediate-stage (BCLC-B). This study aimed to assess the outcomes of LR in these patients using a subclassification tumour burden score (TBS).

METHODS

All consecutive patients that underwent LR for BCLC-A and BCLC-B HCC between 01/2010 and 12/2020 in 4 tertiary referral centers were included. Clinical outcomes and overall survival (OS) were assessed in relation to TBS and BCLC stages.

RESULTS

Among 612 patients included, 562 were classified as BCLC-A and 50 as BCLC-B. The incidence of overall postoperative complications (56.0 vs 41.5%, p = 0.053) and mortality (0 vs 1.6%, p = 1.000) were similar between BCLC-A and BCLC-B patients. OS was significantly higher for BCLC A/low TBS than BCLC B/low TBS (p = 0.009), while patients with medium and high TBS had similar OS, irrespective of BCLC stage (respectively p = 0.103 and p = 0.343).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with medium and high TBS had comparable OS and DFS, irrespective of BCLC A or B stage, and postoperative morbidity was comparable. These results highlight the need for refinement of the BCLC staging system, and LR could be considered for selected intermediate stage (BCLC-B) according to the tumour burden.

An Integrated Liver Function, Systemic Inflammation, and Tumor Characteristic Score Predicts Prognosis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Resection

BACKGROUND

Several scoring systems are currently used to predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but none of them integrates liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor characteristics in a unified model. The current study aimed to develop and validate a novel prognostic score that integrates liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor characteristics in a unified model to predict the prognosis of HCC after curative resection.

METHODS

Patients with HCC who underwent curative liver resection were included in a training set (n = 1027). Multivariate Cox regression was performed to determine the risk factors for a poor prognosis. A prognostic score was developed by assigning points for risk factors in proportion to beta coefficients in a Cox multivariable model. Predictive performance and distinction ability of the prognostic score were further evaluated in two independent validation cohorts treated with either curative resection (n = 281) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) (n = 404) and compared with 16 other models.

RESULTS

The prognostic predictive system, named the function-inflammation-burden-alpha-fetoprotein (FIBA) score, was derived by assigning points for six independent predictors including albumin, total bilirubin, lymphocyte count, diameter of the largest tumor, number of tumors, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). The FIBA score showed an outperformed predictive value compared with other systems in both training and validation cohorts by giving the highest C-index, likelihood ratio chi-square values, and Wald test values as well as the lowest Akaike information criterion.

CONCLUSION

The FIBA score can be used to stratify HCC patients treated with curative resection. Meanwhile, the FIBA score performs well against other prognostic scoring systems and is potentially broadly applicable to a TACE-treated patient cohort.

Advances in post-operative prognostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies and a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Surgery remains the primary and most successful therapy option for the treatment of early- and mid-stage HCCs, but the high heterogeneity of HCC renders prognostic prediction challenging. The construction of relevant prognostic models helps to stratify the prognosis of surgically treated patients and guide personalized clinical decision-making, thereby improving patient survival rates. Currently, the prognostic assessment of HCC is based on several commonly used staging systems, such as Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC). Given the insufficiency of these staging systems and the aim to improve the accuracy of prognostic prediction, researchers have incorporated further prognostic factors, such as microvascular infiltration, and proposed some new prognostic models for HCC. To provide insights into the prospects of clinical oncology research, this review describes the commonly used HCC staging systems and new models proposed in recent years.

Proteomics profiling of nontumor liver tissues identifies prognostic biomarkers in hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often occurs following chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, leading to high recurrence and a low 5-year survival rate. We developed an overall survival (OS) prediction model based on protein expression profiles in HBV-infected nontumor liver tissues. We aimed to demonstrate the feasibility of using protein expression profiles in nontumor liver tissues for survival prediction. A univariate Cox and differential expression analysis were performed to identify candidate prognostic factors. A multivariate Cox analysis was performed to develop the liver gene prognostic index (LGPI). The survival differences between the different risk groups in the training and validation cohorts were also estimated. A total of 363 patients, 159 in the training cohort, and 204 in the validation cohort were included. Of the 6478 proteins extracted from nontumor liver tissues, we identified 1275 proteins altered between HCC and nontumor liver tissues. A total of 1090 out of 6478 proteins were significantly related to OS. The prognostic values of the proteins in nontumor tissues were mostly positively related to those in the tumor tissues. Protective proteins were mainly enriched in the metabolism-related pathways. From the differentially expressed proteins, the top 10 most significant prognosis-related proteins were submitted for LGPI construction. In the training and validation cohorts, this LGPI showed a great ability for distinguishing patients' OS risk stratifications. After adjusting for clinicopathological features, the LGPI was an independent prognostic factor in the training and validation cohorts. We demonstrated the prognostic value of protein expression profiling in nontumor liver tissues. The proposed LGPI was a promising predictive model for estimating OS in HBV-related HCC.

Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort.

METHODS

We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC.

RESULTS

MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Current Therapeutic Algorithm for Localized and Advanced Disease

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer in patients with liver cirrhosis of various etiologies. In recent years, there has been an advance in the knowledge of molecular mechanisms and a better staging definition of patients which has allowed the development of new therapies that have entered the therapeutic workup of these patients. Deep information on molecular drivers of HCC contributed to the development of targeted therapies with remarkable benefits. The novel strategies of targeting immune evasion using immune checkpoint inhibitors and CAR-T and TCR-T therapeutics have also shown promising results. For advanced diseases, the therapeutic algorithm has been recently updated, thanks to the efficacy of combining immunotherapy and antiangiogenic therapy in the first-line setting, and new drugs, both as single-agents or combinations, are currently under investigation.

A study of the clinical profile, predictors, prognostic features, and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma having macroscopic portal vein tumor thrombosis

BACKGROUND

Macroscopic portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is considered a negative prognostic factor in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. There is divergent opinion regarding management of these patients worldwide. We aimed to evaluate the clinical profile, predictors, prognostic features, and survival of patients of HCC with PVTT.

METHODS

Treatment-naïve HCC patients with and without PVTT were analyzed retrospectively using a prospectively accrued dataset. Patients with PVTT were further divided as per treatment groups for survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of 508 patients, 46.1% had radiological evidence of PVTT at presentation. On logistic regression, serum albumin (odds ratio [OR]=0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI]= 0.44-0.96; p= 0.031); international normalized ratio (OR = 3.78,95% CI = 1.42-10.00; p=0.008); alpha-feto protein >400 ng/mL (OR=3.58, 95%CI = 2.00-6.40; p <0.001); size of largest tumor nodule >5 cm (OR =6.37, 95%CI =2.03-19.99; p =0.002); and male gender (OR =1.84, 95%CI = 1.01-3.33; p = 0.045) were independent predictors for PVTT. Patients with PVTT amenable to aggressive therapies had significantly better median overall survival (in months) as compared to those receiving sorafenib or best supportive care only (13.1, 3.9, and 1.8 respectively, p<0.0001). Treatment modality received (p<0.001) and extrahepatic metastasis (p=0.006) were independent predictors of mortality in these patients.

CONCLUSION

Size of largest tumor nodule >5 cm and alpha-fetoprotein >400 ng/mL are strongly associated with the presence of PVTT in patients with HCC. A multidisciplinary approach may identify a subgroup of patients who can be offered aggressive therapies like surgery and/or locoregional therapy with significant survival benefit.

Ideal patients for liver resection in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer or Hong Kong Liver clinic systems for hepatocellular carcinoma: Conservative or aggressive?

Background

Both the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging and the Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) staging have their own definitions of ideal patients for liver resection (IPLR) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to compare the prognosis of IPLRs between the BCLC and HKLC staging systems, and to identify patients who may benefit from liver resection (LR) in the HKLC staging but beyond the BCLC staging.

Methods

This retrospective study evaluated 1,296 consecutive patients with HCC who underwent LR between August 2013 and April 2021 (457 patients and 1,046 patients were IPLR according to the BCLC and HKLC staging systems, respectively). Overall survival (OS) was compared between the two groups. To assess potential benefit of LR for IPLR in the HKLC staging but beyond the BCLC staging, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to determine prognostic factors of OS, and prognostic stratification was performed based on the selected prognostic factors. The IPLRs in the HKLC staging but beyond the BCLC staging were divided into subgroups according to the prognostic stratification and separately compared with the IPLRs in the BCLC staging.

Results

OS was different between the two staging systems (P = 0.011). All the 457 IPLRs in the BCLC staging were also the IPLRs in the HKLC staging. Diameter of the largest tumor5 cm (HR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.18–2.10; P = 0.002) and liver cirrhosis (HR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.19–2.20; P = 0.002) were risk factors for poor OS in IPLRs in the HKLC staging but beyond the BCLC staging; hence, patients were divided into the low-risk (n = 104), intermediate-risk (n = 369), and high-risk groups (n = 116) accordingly. There was no difference in OS between patients in the BCLC staging and patients in low-risk group (P = 0.996). However, OS was significantly different between patients in the BCLC staging and those in intermediate-risk (P = 0.003) and high-risk groups (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

IPLRs in the BCLC staging system have better prognosis. However, IPLRs in the HKLC staging system but beyond the BCLC staging may have equivalent prognosis to IPLRs in the BCLC staging if the tumor size is ≤ 5 cm and liver cirrhosis is absent.

Evaluating the best treatment for multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma: A propensity score-matched analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common tumour often diagnosed with a multifocal presentation. Patients with multifocal HCC represent a heterogeneous group. Although Trans-Arterial ChemoEmbolization (TACE) is the most frequently employed treatment for these patients, previous data suggested that liver resection (LR) could be a safe and effective procedure.

AIM

To compare LR and TACE in patients with multifocal HCC in terms of procedure-related morbidity and oncologic outcomes.

METHODS

All patients with multifocal HCC who underwent LR or TACE as the first procedure between May 2011 and March 2021 were enrolled. The decision to perform surgery or TACE was made after a multidisciplinary team evaluation. Only patients in Child-Pugh class A or B7 and stage B (according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system, without severe portal hypertension, vascular invasion, or extrahepatic spread) were included in the final analysis. Propensity score matching was used to adjust the baseline differences between patients undergoing LR and the TACE group [number and diameter of lesions, presence of cirrhosis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score]. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The outcomes of LR and TACE were compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

After matching, 30 patients were eligible for the final analysis, 15 in each group. Morbidity rates were 42.9% and 40% for LR and TACE, respectively (P = 0.876). Median OS was not different in the LR and TACE groups (53 mo vs 18 mo, P = 0.312), while DFS was significantly longer with LR (19 mo vs 0 mo, P = 0.0001). Subgroup analysis showed that patients in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) B2 stage, with AFP levels lower than 400 ng/mL, less than 3 lesions, and lesions bigger than 41 mm, benefited more from LR in terms of DFS. Patients classified as ITA.LI.CA B3, with AFP levels higher than 400 ng/mL and with more than 3 lesions, appeared to receive more benefit from TACE in terms of OS.

CONCLUSION

In a small cohort of patients with multifocal HCC, LR confers longer DFS compared with TACE, with similar OS and post-procedural morbidity.

Hepatectomy combined with targeted and immunotherapy for CNLC stage IIIb hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-arm clinical trials protocol.. [DOI: 10.1101/2022.07.29.22278175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Introduction

Current clinical guidelines recommend systematic antitumor therapy as the primary treatment option for patients with stage IIIb hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the China liver cancer staging (CNLC) criteria. Several different targeted therapeutics have been applied in combination with immunotherapeutic regimens to date in patients with advanced HCC. The present study was developed to evaluate the relative safety and efficacy of hepatectomy in combination with targeted apatinib treatment and immunotherapeutic camrelizumab treatment CNLC-IIIb stage HCC patients with the goal of providing evidence regarding the potential value of this therapeutic regimen in individuals diagnosed with advanced HCC.

Methods and analysis

This is a single-arm multicenter clinical trial in which patients undergo hepatectomy in combination with targeted treatment (apatinib) and immunotherapy (camrelizumab). Patients will undergo follow-up every 2-3 months following treatment initiation to record any evidence of disease progression and adverse event incidence for a minimum of 24 months following the discontinuation of treatment until reaching study endpoint events or trial termination. The primary endpoint for this study is patient mortality.

Ethics and dissemination

This study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital for Human Study (reference number KS2022[124]). The results of this study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

Trial registration number

NCT05062837.

Strengths and limitations of this study

This study will be the first to assess the relative safety and efficacy of hepatectomy combined with targeted and immunotherapeutic treatment in CNLC-IIIb HCC patients.

As a multicenter study, the results of this analysis will be representative, generalizable, and reliable.

As this study will entail a prolonged follow-up period, it is critical that participants be thoroughly informed prior to enrollment, with individuals exhibiting high compliance being chosen for study inclusion.

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated by systemic therapy: a systematic review and critical appraisal

Objective

To describe and analyze the predictive models of the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing systemic treatment.

Design

Systematic review.

Data sources

PubMed and Embase until December 2020 and manually searched references from eligible articles.

Eligibility criteria for study selection

The development, validation, or updating of prognostic models of patients with HCC after systemic treatment.

Results

The systematic search yielded 42 eligible articles: 28 articles described the development of 28 prognostic models of patients with HCC treated with systemic therapy, and 14 articles described the external validation of 32 existing prognostic models of patients with HCC undergoing systemic treatment. Among the 28 prognostic models, six were developed based on genes, of which five were expressed in full equations; the other 22 prognostic models were developed based on common clinical factors. Of the 28 prognostic models, 11 were validated both internally and externally, nine were validated only internally, two were validated only externally, and the remaining six models did not undergo any type of validation. Among the 28 prognostic models, the most common systemic treatment was sorafenib (n = 19); the most prevalent endpoint was overall survival (n = 28); and the most commonly used predictors were alpha-fetoprotein (n = 15), bilirubin (n = 8), albumin (n = 8), Child–Pugh score (n = 8), extrahepatic metastasis (n = 7), and tumor size (n = 7). Further, among 32 externally validated prognostic models, 12 were externally validated > 3 times.

Conclusions

This study describes and analyzes the prognostic models developed and validated for patients with HCC who have undergone systemic treatment. The results show that there are some methodological flaws in the model development process, and that external validation is rarely performed. Future research should focus on validating and updating existing models, and evaluating the effects of these models in clinical practice.

Systematic review registration

PROSPERO CRD42020200187.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09841-5.

Dynamics of endothelial progenitor cells in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Circulating endothelial progenitor cells (EPC) predict tumor vascularization and disease progression, but limited information is available on their dynamics in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing systemic treatment.

METHODS

We prospectively analyzed different populations of EPC in 16 patients with advanced HCC receiving sorafenib. Patients were studied before therapy (T0, n = 16) and after two (T2, n = 12) and eight weeks (T8, n = 8), using high-performance flow-cytometry. The tumor response at T8 was categorized as progressive disease (PD) or clinical benefit (CB, all other responses).

RESULTS

At T0, higher levels of CD34⁺CD133⁺KDR⁺ and CD34⁺KDR⁺ were observed in patients with alpha-fetoprotein ≥400 ng/ml or non-viral liver disease, whereas CD34⁺CD133⁺KDR⁺ cells were virtually absent in patients with vascular invasion. CD34⁺KDR⁺ and CD34⁺CD133⁺KDR⁺ were directly correlated with platelet count. Frequencies of all populations of EPC declined in patients receiving sorafenib. Levels of CD34⁺CD133⁺ were higher at T0 in patients with CB compared to patients with PD. In patients belonging to the CB group CD34⁺KDR⁺ cells at T0 were directly correlated to platelet count.

CONCLUSION

In patients with advanced HCC, EPC are directly correlated with platelet count, suggesting a common activation of selected bone marrow pathways. Levels of a CD34⁺KDR⁺ are higher at baseline in patients responding to sorafenib.

The importance of liver functional reserve in the non-surgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma

The aim of any oncological treatment is not just to eliminate the tumour, but to maximise patient survival and quality of life. Since the liver has a vital function, any radical treatment that severely compromises liver function will result in a shortening of life expectancy, rather than a prolongation. Furthermore, even non-severe liver damage may prevent the delivery of further effective therapies. This is particularly important in the case of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), as it is associated with underlying cirrhosis in most patients - cirrhosis itself is not only a potentially lethal disease and independent prognostic factor in HCC, but it also makes liver function fragile. Accordingly, some information about liver dysfunction is included in most staging systems for HCC and can be used to guide the selection of treatments that the functional liver reserve can tolerate. Unfortunately, the prediction of functional damage to the liver in the case of antitumor treatments is very challenging and still suboptimal in any given patient. Moreover, while the assessment of functional reserve can now be used to avoid postoperative liver failure in the surgical setting, its use has been less well clarified for non-surgical therapies, which is of particular relevance today, as several lines of effective non-surgical treatments, including systemic therapies, have become available. The present article will a) critically review the implications of the assessment of liver functional reserve in patients with HCC, b) illustrate the available tools to assess liver functional reserve and c) discuss the role of functional assessment for each type of non-surgical therapy for HCC.

Optimizing systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: the key role of liver function

The number of effective systemic therapies for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is rapidly increasing, and the advent of immunotherapy has changed the treatment paradigm for these patients, leading to significantly improved survival outcomes. However, many patients with HCC will continue to receive tyrosine kinase inhibitors, partly because of contraindications to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Currently, the best sequential first- and second-line systemic treatment remains elusive. Maintenance of optimal liver function is crucial, it is likely to impinge on temporary or permanent treatment discontinuation, and should also be considered when defining the treatment sequence. Hepatic decompensation, which does not always coincide with disease progression, is part of this complex dynamically evolving system, and must be promptly recognized and adequately managed to allow the patient to continue in the therapeutic course. The purpose of this review is to highlight and summarize the evidence on the efficacy and safety of systemic agents, with a focus on the impact of underlying cirrhosis, and to suggest new clinical outcomes for randomized controlled trials for advanced HCC to better assess the net health benefit in this specific setting.

A Novel Prognostic Model for Identifying the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Angiogenesis Factors

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer with poor prognosis. An optimized stratification of HCC patients to discriminate clinical benefit regarding different degrees of malignancy is urgently needed because of no effective and reliable prognostic biomarkers currently. HCC is typically characterized by rich vascular. The dysregulated vascular endothelial growth factor was proved a pivotal regulator of the development of HCC. Therefore, we investigated the capability of angiogenic factors (AFs) in stratifying patients and constructed a prognostic risk model. A total of 6 prognostic correlated AFs (GRM8, SPC25, FSD1L, SLC386A, FAM72A and SLC39A10) were screened via LASSO Cox regression, which provided the basis for developing a novel prognostic risk model. Based on the risk model, HCC patients were subdivided into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that patients in the high-risk group have a lower survival rate compared with those in the low-risk group. The prognostic model showed good predictive efficacy, with AUCs reaching 0.802 at 1 year, 0.694 at 2 years, and 0.672 at 3 years. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analysis demonstrated that the risk score had significant prognostic value and was an independent prognostic factor for HCC. Moreover, this model also showed a good diagnostic positive rate in the ICGC-LIRI-JP and GSE144269. Finally, we demonstrated the efficacy of the AF-risk model in HCC patients following sorafenib adjuvant chemotherapy. And revealed the underlying molecular features involving tumor stemness, immune regulation, and genomic alterations associated with the risk score. Based on a large population, we established a novel prognostic model based on 6 AFs to help identify HCC patients with a greater risk of death. The model may provide a reference for better clinical management of HCC patients in the era of cancer precision medicine.

Proposal and Validation of a Novel Scoring System for Hepatocellular Carcinomas Beyond Curability Borders

Optimal scoring system for clinical prognostic factors in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently uncertain. We aimed to develop and externally validate an easy to use tool, particularly for this population, and named it the "unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma prognostic index" (UHPI). We evaluated the data of patients with treatment-naive unresectable HCC who were diagnosed in the training center from 2010 to 2019 (n = 209). A simple prognostic model was developed by assigning points for each covariate in proportion to the beta coefficients in the Cox multivariable model. Predictive performance and distinction ability of the UHPI were further evaluated in an independent European validation cohort (n = 147) and compared with 11 other available models. A simple scoring system was derived, assigning 0.5/1/2 scores for six independent covariates including, the Child-Pugh score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, maximum tumor size, vascular invasion or extrahepatic metastasis, lymph node involvement, and alpha-fetoprotein. The UHPI score, ranging from 0 to 6, showed superior performance in prognosis prediction and outperformed 11 other staging or prognostic models, giving the highest homogeneity (c-index, 6-month and 1-year area under the receiver operator characteristic curves), lowest Akaike information criterion, and -2 log-likelihood ratio values. The UHPI score allocated well the risk of patients with unresectable HCC for mortality within the first year, using two cut-off values (low-risk, <0.5; intermediate-risk, 0.5-2; high-risk, >2). Conclusion: The UHPI score can predict prognosis better than other systems in subjects with unresectable HCC and can be used in clinical practice or trials to estimate the 6-month and 1-year survival probabilities for this group.

Treatments of Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Portal Vein Tumor Thrombus: Current Status and Controversy

The proportions of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) involving portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) varies greatly in different countries or regions, ranging from 13% to 45%. The treatment regimens for PVTT recommended by HCC guidelines in different countries or regions also vary greatly. In recent years, with the progress and development of surgical concepts, radiotherapy techniques, systematic therapies (for example, VEGF inhibitors, tyrosine kinase inhibitors and immune checkpoint inhibitors), patients with HCC involving PVTT have more treatment options and their prognoses have been significantly improved. To achieve the maximum benefit, both clinicians and patients need to think rationally about the indications of treatment modalities, the occurrence of severe adverse events, and the optimal fit for the population. In this review, we provide an update on the treatment modalities available for patients with HCC involving PVTT. Trials with large sample size for patients with advanced or unresectable HCC are also reviewed.

Patient stratification in hepatocellular carcinoma: impact on choice of therapy

INTRODUCTION

HCC comprises around 60 to 80% of all primary liver cancers and exhibits wide geographical variability. Appropriate treatment allocation needs to include both patient and tumor characteristics.

AREAS COVERED

Current HCC classification systems to guide therapy are either liver function-centric and evaluate physiologic liver function to guide therapy or prognostic stratification classification systems broadly based on tumor morphologic parameters, patient performance status, and liver reserve assessment. This review focuses on different classification systems for HCC, their strengths, and weaknesses as well as the use of artificial intelligence in improving prognostication in HCC.

EXPERT OPINION

Future HCC classification systems will need to incorporate clinic-pathologic data from a multitude of sources and emerging therapies to develop patient-specific treatment plans targeting a patient's unique tumor profile.

Levels of Alpha-Fetoprotein and Association with Mortality in Hepatocellular Carcinoma of HIV-1-Infected Patients

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study on patients living with HIV-1 infection (PLWH) followed at the Division of Infectious Diseases of the San Raffaele Hospital, with cirrhosis and HCC diagnosed between 1999 and 2018 and with an available AFP value at HCC diagnosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to estimate the accuracy of baseline AFP in predicting death. Factors associated with the risk of death were identified using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models.

Results

Overall, 53 PLWH were evaluated: 18 patients received a curative treatment (9 liver transplantation, 5 liver resections and 4 radiofrequency ablation) and 35 a noncurative treatment (17 chemo or radio embolization, 10 sorafenib and 8 best supportive care). Baseline AFP was predictive of death [AUC 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54–0.83], and the optimal cut-off was 28.8 ng/mL. At multivariable analysis, BL AFP ≥28.8 ng/mL was associated with death [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 7.05, 95% CI 1.94–25.71 P = 0.003]. Other factors were HBV infection (aHR 8.57, 95% CI 1.47–50.08, P = 0.017) and treatment allocation (curative vs. noncurative, aHR 0.08, 95% CI 0.02–0.40, P = 0.0004).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that in PLWH AFP serum levels ≥28.8 ng/mL, HBV coinfection and treatment allocation represent predictive markers for death at the time of HCC diagnosis.

The ITA.LI.CA Consortium: How multicentre collaboration helped shape the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma on the basis of real-world evidence

The growing diffusion of digitalisation and informatics has promoted the creation and analysis of large databases able to provide solid information. Analyses of "big data" generated by real-world practice are particularly useful for knowing incidence and mortality, disparities, temporal trends of diseases, identifying risk factors, predicting future scenarios, obtaining inputs for cost-effectiveness and treatment benefit modelling, designing new studies, and monitoring rare diseases. Although randomised controlled trials (RCTs) represent the gold-standard for generating evidence about new diagnostic, preventive or therapeutic procedures, their results should be integrated with real-world data to personalise patient management. Indeed, a substantial proportion of patients observed in field-practice have characteristics that prevent the access to RCTs or, when included, form sub-groups too small to provide robust post-hoc analyses. Furthermore, as RCTs are resource-consuming and designed to maximize the probability of success, they are generally performed in expert centres of high-income areas, excluding economically-deprived regions which could complementarily contribute to the medical progress as huge sources of real-world data. These considerations fuelled the creation in 1998 of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) consortium, with the aim to merge data of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) managed in several centres. This cooperation permitted to analyse a multicentre, large cohort of HCC patients. Since then, the ITA.LI.CA group has progressively expanded to currently include 24 centres, and its database counts more than 9,000 patients. This article describes the history of the ITA.LI.CA consortium and presents its scientific production whose results greatly contributed to the incessant improvement of HCC management.

Development of pre and post-operative nomograms to predict individual survival for ideal liver resection candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is currently the only recommended treatment option for solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at an early stage, with well-preserved liver function and no clinically significant portal hypertension. However, this population is heterogeneous, rendering it crucial to develop a risk stratification tool. Therefore, this study aimed to develop preoperative and post-operative nomograms to predict individual survival and stratify patient risk in the ideal candidates for liver resection.

METHODS

A total of 1405 ideal liver resection candidates were recruited. Independent risk factors were identified by Cox regression model and used to establish two ideal liver resection for overall survival (IROS) nomograms in training cohort. Model performance was assessed by discrimination, calibration, clinical usefulness. The two model also compared with six other prognostic nomograms and six other staging systems.

RESULTS

Multivariate COX analysis revealed that ALP, ln(AFP), NrLR, PNI, ln(tumor size), microvascular invasion, Edmondson-Steiner grade and tumour capsular were the independent risk factors associated with mortality. 5 preoperative variables were incorporated to construct IROS-pre model; All eight available variables were used to draw IROS-post model. The C-index, K-index, time-dependent AUC and DCA of the two models showed significantly better predictive performances than other models. The models could stratify patients into three different risk groups. The web-based tools are convenient for clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

These two nomograms were developed to estimate survival probability and stratify three strata with significantly different outcomes, outperforming other models in training and validation cohorts, as well as different subgroups. Both IROS models will help guide individualized follow-up.

Immunological and prognostic significance of CBX2 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The number of cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the sixth most common malignancy and the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide, has risen from 1.6 to 4.6 per 100000 people worldwide over the past 30 years. Guangxi has a high incidence of HCC in China, and its death rate ranks first in the spectrum of causes of tumor death in Guangxi, accounting for about 40% of all deaths from malignant tumors. Exploring the role of chromobox homolog 2 (CBX2) in HCC immunity will provide potential value for the treatment of this malignancy.

AIM

To investigate the expression of CBX2 and analyze its immunological and prognostic significance in HCC.

METHODS

The expression of CBX2 in 75 cases of HCC and matched non-tumor tissues was detected by tissue microarray and immunohistochemistry. The relationship of CBX2 expression with the clinicopathologic features of HCC and survival prognosis was analyzed. Then, the differential expression of CBX2 between HCC and normal tissues was verified in The Cancer Genomic Atlas (TCGA). Next, we explored the association between CBX2 expression and immunocyte infiltration, determined the relationship between CBX2 expression and immunosuppressors and immunostimulators, and identified the immune events that CBX2 was involved in through relevant GO and KEGG pathway enrichment analyses. A multi-gene risk prediction model was developed using a COX regression model, thereby generating a risk score that is an independent predictor of survival prognosis. ROC analysis was performed to assess the predictive accuracy of the risk score. Finally, a prognostic model with a calibration curve was constructed to predict the patients' survival probability at 3 and 5 years.

RESULTS

The positive expression of CBX2 in HCC tissue was 66.7% (50/75), which was significantly higher than that in matched non-tumor tissues (25.3% (19/75); P < 0.01). The expression of CBX2 was associated with TNM stage and AFP status (P < 0.05). The survival time of patients in the CBX2 positive group was significantly lower than that of the CBX2 negative group, suggesting that CBX2 positive expression may be related to the prognosis of HCC patients. TCGA database verification reached the same conclusion. The expression of CBX2 was positively correlated with the infiltration levels of T helper 2 cells. CBX2 was identified to be associated with 10 immunosuppressors and 23 immunostimulators, and enriched analysis of related GO and KEGG pathways showed that CBX2 was associated with immune events such as intestinal immune network for immunoglobulin A production, cytokine-cytokine receptor interactions, cell adhesion molecules, and rheumatoid arthritis.

CONCLUSION

CBX2 positive expression may be a prognostic risk factor in HCC patients. Our findings provide evidence for the role of CBX2 in tumor immunity in HCC, suggesting that CBX2 may be a potential immunoprognostic marker for HCC.

Lenvatinib with or without immune checkpoint inhibitors for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma in real-world clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Lenvatinib is regarded as the first-line therapy for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the efficacy and safety of lenvatinib with or without immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in patients with unresectable HCC.

METHODS

In this multicentric retrospective study, patients with unresectable HCC who treated with lenvatinib with or without ICIs would be enrolled. Overall survival, progression-free survival, objective response rate, and disease control rate were calculated to assess the antitumor response.

RESULTS

Between January 2019 and August 2020, 65 patients received lenvatinib plus ICIs while other 45 patients received lenvatinib. The baseline characteristics were comparable between the two groups. Lenvatinib plus ICIs provided significantly higher overall survival (hazard ratio = 0.47, 95% CI 0.26-0.85; p = 0.013) and progression-free survival (hazard ratio = 0.35, 95% CI 0.20-0.63; p < 0.001) than lenvatinib monotherapy. Moreover, patients with lenvatinib plus ICIs had significantly higher objective response rate (41.5% vs 20.0%, p = 0.023) and disease control rate (72.3% vs 46.7%, p = 0.009) per RECIST v1.1 than those with lenvatinib. No treatment-related deaths were observed. Grade 3 or greater adverse events occurring in 10% or more of patients in either treatment group were hypertension [13 (20.0%) of 65 patients treated with lenvatinib plus ICIs vs 8 (17.8%) of 45 patients treated with lenvatinib], and palmar-plantar erythrodysesthesia [seven (10.8%) vs two (4.4%)].

CONCLUSIONS

In this real-world study, lenvatinib combined with ICIs showed significantly promising efficacy and manageable safety than lenvatinib alone in patients with unresectable HCC.

Immune-associated molecular occurrence and prognosis predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma: an integrated analysis of GEO datasets

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer and the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. As immune response failure is the main factor in the occurrence and poor prognosis of HCC, our study aimed to develop an immune-associated molecular occurrence and prognosis predictor (IMOPP) of HCC. To that end, we discovered a 4-gene immune-associated gene signature: C-C motif chemokine ligand 14 (CCL14), kallikrein B1 (KLKB1), vasoactive intestinal peptide receptor 1 (VIPR1), and cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4). When tested on three cohorts as an immune-associated molecular occurrence predictor (IMOP), it had high sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. When tested as an immune-associated molecular prognosis predictor (IMPP), it stratified the HCC prognosis for overall survival (Kaplan-Meier analysis, log rank P = 0.0016; Cox regression, HR = 1.832, 95% CI = 1.173-2.859, P = 0.008) and disease-free survival (Kaplan-Meier analysis, log rank P = 0.0227). IMPP also significantly correlated with the clinicopathological characteristics of HCC; integrating it with clinicopathological characteristics improved the accuracy of a nomogram for overall survival prediction (C-index: 0.7097 vs. 0.6631). In HCC tumor microenviroments, the proportion of CD8⁺ T cells significantly differed between IMOP-stratified groups. We conclude that IMOPP can potentially predict the occurrence of HCC in high-risk populations and improve prognostic accuracy by providing new biomarkers for risk stratification. In addition, we believe that the IMOP mechanism may be related to its effect on the proportion of CD8⁺ T cells in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes.

Comparison of prognostic models in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing Sorafenib: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Sorafenib is the gold standard therapy for the advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). No scoring/staging is universally accepted to predict the survival of these patients.

AIMS

To evaluate the accuracy of the available prognostic models for HCC to predict the survival of advanced HCC patients treated with Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort.

METHODS

The performance of several prognostic scores was assessed through a Cox regression-model evaluating the C-index and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

Data of 1129 patients were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 61.6 years, and 80.8% were male. During a median follow-up period of 13 months, 789 patients died. The median period of Sorafenib administration was 4 months. All the prognostic scores were able to predict the overall survival (p<0.001) at univariate analysis, except the Albumin-Bilirubin score. The Italian Liver Cancer score (CLIP) yielded the highest accuracy (C-index 0.604, AIC 9898), followed by the ITA.LI.CA. prognostic score (C-index 0.599, AIC 9915).

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP score had the highest accuracy in predicting the overall survival of HCC patients treated with Sorafenib, although its performance remained poor. Further studies are needed to refine the current ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib.

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio as a predictor of tumor recurrence and prognosis in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation as initial therapy

OBJECTIVE

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR), a newly developed blood biomarker, has been reported to have prognostic value in several types of cancer. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of AAPR in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) as initial therapy.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed 445 patients with newly diagnosed HCC undergoing RFA as initial therapy. A series of survival analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of AAPR. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. An AAPR-based nomogram was constructed, and its predictive performance was validated.

RESULTS

Patients with a low AAPR had a significantly reduced recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) compared with those with a high AAPR. AAPR was found to be an independent prognostic indicator and showed superior discrimination efficacy than other liver function indices. The AAPR-based nomogram had a concordance index value of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.79) in the training cohort and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.63-0.81) in the validation cohort, which significantly outperformed other existing staging systems.

CONCLUSIONS

AAPR serves as a promising indicator of prognosis in patients with early-stage HCC undergoing RFA. The AAPR-based nomogram might contribute to individualized prognosis prediction and clinical decision making.

A Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib: A Multicenter Study

Among scores and staging systems used for HCC, none showed a good prognostic ability in patients with advanced HCC treated with Sorafenib. We aimed to evaluate predictive factors of overall survival (OS) and drug response in HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. Patients in the ITA.LI.CA database treated with Sorafenib and updated on 30 June 2019 were included. Demographic and clinical data before starting Sorafenib treatment were considered. For the evaluation of predictive factors for OS, a time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was used. A total of 1107 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 64.3 years and 81.7% were male. Most patients were staged as BCLC B (205, 18.9%) or C (706, 65.1%). The median time of Sorafenib administration was 4 months (interquartile range (IQR) 2-12), and the median OS was 10 months (IQR: 4-20). A total of 263 patients (33.8%) out of 780 with available evaluation experienced objective tumoral response to Sorafenib. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.284), maximum tumoral diameter (HR 1.100), plasma total bilirubin (HR 1.119), aspartate amino transferase assessed as multiple of the upper normal value (HR 1.032), alpha-fetoprotein ≥200 ng/mL (HR 1.342), hemoglobin (HR 0.903) and platelet count (HR 1.002) were associated with OS at multivariate Cox regression analysis. Drug response was predicted by maximum tumoral diameter and platelet count. A novel prognostic nomogram for patients undergoing Sorafenib is hereby proposed. The novelty introduced is the comprehensive patient's assessment using common markers of patient's general status, liver damage and function and HCC biology. Further studies are required to test its accuracy and provide external validation.

Overview of Prognostic Systems for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and ITA.LI.CA External Validation of MESH and CNLC Classifications

Prognostic assessment in patients with HCC remains an extremely difficult clinical task due to the complexity of this cancer where tumour characteristics interact with degree of liver dysfunction, patient general health status, and a large span of available treatment options. Several prognostic systems have been proposed in the last three decades, both from the Asian and European/North American countries. Prognostic scores, such as the CLIP score and the recent MESH score, have been generated on a solid statistical basis from real life population data, while staging systems, such as the BCLC scheme and the recent CNLC classification, have been created by experts according to recent HCC prognostic evidences from the literature. A third category includes combined prognostic systems that can be used both as prognostic scores and staging systems. A recent example is the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system including either a prognostic score and a simplified staging system. This review focuses first on an overview of the main prognostic systems for HCC classified according to the above three categories, and, second, on a comprehensive description of the methodology required for a correct comparison between different systems in terms of prognostic performance. In this second section the main studies in the literature comparing different prognostic systems are described in detail. Lastly, a formal comparison between the last prognostic systems proposed for each of the above three categories is performed using a large Italian database including 6882 HCC patients in order to concretely apply the comparison rules previously described.

Time-Varying mHAP-III Is the Most Accurate Predictor of Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

INTRODUCTION

The prognosis of patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is extremely variable, and a confounding factor is that TACE is often repeated several times. We retrospectively evaluated the accuracy of different prognostic scores and staging systems in estimating overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

An analysis considering prognostic models as time-varying variables was performed, calculating OS from the time of TACE to the time of the subsequent treatment. Total follow-up time for each patient was therefore split into several observation times accounting for each TACE procedure. Values of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare different systems. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify additional factors predictive of OS. We analyzed 1,610 TACE performed in 1,058 patients recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer database from 2008 through 2016.

RESULTS

The median OS of the enrolled patients was 41 months. According to LRT χ² and AIC values based on the time-varying analysis, mHAP-III achieved the best values (41.72 and 4,625.49, respectively, p < 0.0001), indicating the highest predictive performance compared with all other scores (HAP, mHAP-II, ALBI, and pALBI) and staging systems (MELD, ITALICA, CLIP, MESH, MESIAH, JIS, HKLC, and BCLC). In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, mHAP-III maintained an independent effect on OS (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.55, p < 0.0001). Time-varying age, alcoholic etiology, radiologic response to TACE, and performing ablation or surgery after TACE were additional significant variables resulting from the multivariable model.

CONCLUSION

An innovative time-varying analysis revealed that mHAP-III was the most accurate model in predicting OS in patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Other clinical pre- and post-TACE variables were also found to be relevant for this prediction.

A New Scoring Method for Personalized Prognostic Prediction in Patients with Combined Hepatocellular and Cholangiocarcinoma After Surgery

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CCA) is a rare but aggressive primary liver cancer with dismal prognosis. We aim to develop a new scoring method for personalized prognostic prediction in patients with cHCC-CCA undergoing surgical resection.

METHODS

Between January 1993 and December 2015, a total of 296 Allen type C cHCC-CCA patients who had received surgical resection in Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital were retrospectively enrolled. A novel prognostic scoring method for cHCC-CCA (PSM-CHCC model) was established and validated. The predictive value of the new model was compared with current prognostic staging systems.

RESULTS

The scoring model was developed based on the independent prognostic variables identified by Cox regression model. Based on the PSM-CHCC model, patients were stratified into three prognostic subgroups according to their individual score: A (scoring 0-2), B (scoring 3-5), and C (scoring > 5). The prediction performance of the PSM-CHCC model outperformed the widely accepted TNM staging system and other staging systems in both training and validation cohorts. Subgroup analysis also verified the discrimination efficacy of the PSM-CHCC model.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly established PSM-CHCC model may facilitate prognostic stratification and clinical decision-making in patients with cHCC-CCA.

Clinical aspects and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma in north-eastern Poland

Aim of the study

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer, with poor treatment outcomes often because of delayed diagnosis. The aim of this study was to assess the co-incidence of cirrhosis, alcohol abuse, hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and fatty liver disease in patients in the population of north-eastern Poland, to analyse the usefulness of α-fetoprotein (AFP) in the diagnosis of HCC and to assess the effectiveness of HCC treatment in this group.

Material and methods

The study involved 104 patients diagnosed with HCC. The age, sex, comorbidities, HCC risk factors and levels of AFP were analysed. The effect of antiviral therapy of HCV and HBV on HCC development was observed and the effectiveness of therapies used in the treatment of HCC was assessed.

Results

Over 90% of patients with HCC were older than 45 years. The incidence of HCC was higher in men than in women. Patients with HCC were also diagnosed with cirrhosis (72%), alcohol abuse (35%), HCV infection (35%), HBV infection (24%), and fatty liver disease (13%). HCC developed in 9/25 (36%) patients positive for HBV despite effective antiviral therapy. The highest AFP levels were found in HBV-positive patients. The mean survival time was 19 months for partial hepatectomy and 16 months for thermal ablation.

Conclusions

The main predisposing factor for HCC is cirrhosis, followed by alcohol abuse and infection with HCV. Effective antiviral therapy for HBV does not prevent the development of HCC in all cases. Since 29% of patients were disqualified from HCC treatment due to an advanced stage of cancer, it indicates insufficient screening for HCC. Partial hepatectomy and radiofrequency ablation show comparable effectiveness in the treatment of HCC.

Prognostic significance of postoperative change of PALBI grade for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

The platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grade plays critical role in evaluating liver function. However, the change of PALBI grade from the preoperative to postoperative period in predicting patient outcomes after hepatectomy remains unclear.A total of 489 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy in West China Hospital between January, 2010 and June, 2016 were analyzed retrospectively.ΔPALBI grade was calculated by PALBI grade at the first postoperative month - preoperative PALBI grade.ΔPALBI >0 was considered as stable; otherwise, worse PALBI grade was considered. Kaplan- Meier method and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed for survival analysis. Prognostic model was constructed by nomogram method.Three hundred forty two patients and 147 patients were classified into training group and validation group, respectively. In the training group, results from Cox model suggested that worse PALBI grade (HR 1.328, 95% CI 1.010-1.746, P = .042), tumor size (HR 1.460, 95% CI 1.058-2.015, P = .021), microvascular invasion (MVI, HR 1.802, 95% CI 1.205-2.695, P < .001), and high alpha-fetoprotein level (AFP, HR 1.364, 95% CI 1.044-1.781, P = .023) negatively influenced postoperative recurrence. Similarly, worse PALBI grade (HR 1.403, 95% CI 1.020-1.930, P = .038), tumor size (HR 1.708, 95% CI 1.157-2.520, P = .007), MVI (HR 1.914, 95% CI 1.375-2.663, P < .001), and presence of cirrhosis (HR 1.773, 95% CI 1.226-2.564, P = .002) had negatively impacts on overall survival. Patients with worse PALBI grade had worse recurrence free (RFS) and overall survival (OS). The prognostic model incorporating the change of PALBI grade constructed in training group and tested in the validation group could perform well in predicting the outcomes.Postoperative change of PALBI grade was independently risk factor related with prognosis. Prognostic model incorporating the change of PALBI grade might be a useful index to predict the prognosis of HCC patients following hepatectomy.

A Prognostic Scoring System for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients with the TNM 8th Edition Stage I and II Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Surgery: A Population-Based Study

Purpose

Postoperative prognosis prediction models for patients with stage Ⅰ and Ⅱ hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to the 8th edition of the Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system after surgery are rare. This study aimed to build a prognostic score to predict survival outcomes and stratify these patients into different prognostic strata.

Patients and Methods

We developed a web-based nomogram that incorporated four selected risk factors based on the multivariate Cox regression, using a training set (n=3567) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. It was validated with an independent internal set from the SEER database (n=1783) and an external validation set of 516 Chinese patients. The predictive performance and discrimination ability of our model were further evaluated and compared with those of the conventional HCC staging systems.

Results

Our nomogram consistently outperformed the conventional staging systems in the training, internal validation set, and external validation set. We quantified the nomogram model into a numerical SNIG (an abbreviation of the incorporated variables – size, number, MVI, and grade) score by summing the points assigned to each incorporated variable, leading to the optimal cut-off values of 6 and 10, which could stratify patients into 3 categories (SNIG score <6, 6–10, ≥10). This yielded significantly different median overall survivals (interquartile ranges) of 42.0 (20.0–72.0) and 37.0 (17.0–67.0); 28.0 (12.0–60.0) and 42.0 (21.75–82.0); 40.0 (18.0–70.0) and 29.0 (11.5–61.0) months for the 3 categories in the entire SEER and external validation sets, respectively.

Conclusion

We developed a web-based SNIG model to graphically and numerically predict the overall survival of stage Ⅰ and Ⅱ HCC. This scoring system may shed light on risk stratification for these patients in clinical practice and clinical trials.

Surveillance as Determinant of Long-Term Survival in Non-Transplanted Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

PURPOSE

We aimed at assessing the impact of surveillance on long-term survival in HCC patients.

METHODS

From the ITA.LI.CA database, we selected 1028 cases with long (≥5 years, LS group) and 2721 controls with short-term survival (<5 years, SS group). The association between surveillance and LS was adjusted for confounders by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Survival of surveilled patients was presented both as observed and corrected for the lead-time bias, and the comparison of survival between surveillance and no surveillance groups was also performed after balancing the baseline characteristics with inverse probability weights (IPW).

RESULTS

LS patients were more frequently diagnosed under surveillance (p < 0.0001), and had more favorable baseline characteristics. Surveillance was an independent predictor of LS (OR = 1.413, 95% CI 1.195-1.671; p < 0.0001). The observed and the lead-time corrected survival of surveilled patients were significantly longer compared to the survival of not surveilled patients (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0008, respectively). In IPW adjusted populations, no survival differences were demonstrated between the two groups (p = 0.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance, increasing early-stage diagnosis and applicability of curative treatments, is a fundamental determinant of long-term survival in HCC patients. A wide implementation of surveillance programs should be pursued in order to improve HCC patients' prognosis.

Clinical Characterisation and Management of the Main Treatment-Induced Toxicities in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Cirrhosis

Simple Summary

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma continues to increase worldwide. In almost all cases, hepatocellular carcinoma develops in subjects with hepatic cirrhosis and patients can therefore present symptoms that are attributable to both conditions. There are several ablation techniques currently available for the treatment of unresectable HCC associated with early-stage cirrhosis. Moreover, novel therapies with biological agents and immunotherapy have come to be standard options in the approach to systemic treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, in addition to being costly, these drugs are not devoid of adverse effects and their management cannot forgo the consideration of the underlying hepatic impairment. Therefore, these patients require a mandatory multidisciplinary management.

Abstract

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to increase worldwide, particularly in Western countries. In almost all cases, HCC develops in subjects with hepatic cirrhosis, often as the result of hepatitis B or C virus infection, alcohol abuse or metabolic forms secondary to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Patients with HCC and hepatic symptoms can therefore present symptoms that are attributable to both conditions. These patients require multidisciplinary management, calling for close interaction between the hepatologist and the oncologist. Indeed, the treatment of HCC requires, depending on the disease stage and the degree of hepatic impairment, locoregional therapies that can in turn be broken down into surgical and nonsurgical treatments and systemic treatments used in the event of progression after the administration of locoregional treatments. The past decade has seen the publication of countless papers of great interest that have radically changed the scenario of treatment for HCC. Novel therapies with biological agents and immunotherapy have come to be standard options in the approach to treatment of this cancer, obtaining very promising results where in the past chemotherapy was almost never able to have an impact on the course of the disease. However, in addition to being costly, these drugs are not devoid of adverse effects and their management cannot forgo the consideration of the underlying hepatic impairment. Patients with HCC and cirrhosis therefore require special attention, starting from the initial characterisation needed for an appropriate selection of those to be referred for treatment, as these patients are almost never fit. In this chapter, we will attempt to investigate and clarify the key points of the management of the main toxicities induced by locoregional and systemic treatments for HCC secondary to cirrhosis.

Monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma: How much does size matter?

BACKGROUND & AIMS

According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is classified as early (BCLC A) irrespective of its size, even though controversies still exist regarding staging and treatment of large tumours. We aimed at evaluating the appropriate staging and treatment for large (>5 cm) monofocal (HCC).

METHODS

From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we selected 924 patients with small early monofocal HCC (2-5 cm; SEM-HCC), 163 patients with larger tumours (>5 cm; LEM-HCC) and 1048 intermediate stage patients (BCLC B).

RESULTS

LEM-HCC patients had a worse overall survival (OS) than SEM-HCC (31.0 vs 49.0 months; P < .0001), and this was confirmed at multivariate analysis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.29-2.05; P < .0001). The small difference in OS between LEM-HCC and BCLC B patients (31.0 vs 27.0 months; P = .03) disappeared in the multivariate model (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.77-1.25; P = .89). In all monofocal tumours, treatment was the strongest independent predictor of survival, with a progressively decreasing survival benefit moving from "curative" to "palliative" therapies. The survival of resected patients with LEM-HCC was significantly shorter than that of SEM-HCC (44.0 vs 78.0 months; P = .002), but liver resection provided the highest survival benefit in both groups compared to other treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Monofocal HCC larger than 5 cm should not be staged as BCLC A and either a different staging system or a different subgrouping of patients (e.g. BCLC AB) should be used. Liver resection, if feasible, remains the recommended treatment for all these patients.

Comparison of Prognostic Scores in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated With Sorafenib

INTRODUCTION

Prognostic classifications for patients treated with sorafenib for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) facilitate stratification in trials and inform clinical decision making. Recently, 3 different prognostic models (hepatoma arterial-embolization prognosis [HAP] score, sorafenib advanced HCC prognosis [SAP] score, and Prediction Of Survival in Advanced Sorafenib-treated HCC [PROSASH]-II) have been proposed specifically for patients treated with sorafenib. This study aimed to compare the prognostic performance of different scores.

METHODS

We analyzed a large prospective database gathering data of 552 patients treated with sorafenib from 7 Italian centers. The performance of the HAP, SAP, and PROSASH-II models were compared with those of generic HCC prognostic models (including the Barcelona Clinic for Liver Cancer and Italian Liver Cancer staging systems, albumin-bilirubin grade, and Child-Pugh score) to verify whether they could provide additional information.

RESULTS

The PROSASH-II model improved discrimination (C-index 0.62) compared with existing prognostic scores (C-index ≤0.59). Its stratification significantly discriminated patients, with a median overall survival of 21.5, 15.3, 9.3, and 6.0 months for risk group 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The HAP and SAP score were also validated but with a poorer performance compared with the PROSASH-II.

DISCUSSION

Although suboptimal, PROSASH-II is the most effective prognostic classification model among other available scores in a large Italian population of patients treated with sorafenib.

A Machine Learning Approach Yields a Multiparameter Prognostic Marker in Liver Cancer

A number of staging systems have been developed to predict clinical outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no general consensus has been reached regarding the optimal model. New approaches such as machine learning (ML) strategies are powerful tools for incorporating risk factors from multiple platforms. We retrospectively reviewed the baseline information, including clinicopathologic characteristics, laboratory parameters, and peripheral immune features reflecting T-cell function, from three HCC cohorts. A gradient-boosting survival (GBS) classifier was trained with prognosis-related variables in the training dataset and validated in two independent cohorts. We constructed a 20-feature GBS model classifier incorporating one clinical feature, 14 laboratory parameters, and five T-cell function parameters obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The GBS model-derived risk scores demonstrated high concordance indexes (C-indexes): 0.844, 0.827, and 0.806 in the training set and validation sets 1 and 2, respectively. The GBS classifier could separate patients into high-, medium- and low-risk subgroups with respect to death in all datasets (P < 0.05 for all comparisons). A higher risk score was positively correlated with a higher clinical stage and the presence of portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT). Subgroup analyses with respect to Child-Pugh class, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, and PVTT status supported the prognostic relevance of the GBS-derived risk algorithm independent of the conventional tumor staging system. In summary, a multiparameter ML algorithm incorporating clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, and peripheral immune signatures offers a different approach to identify patients with the greatest risk of HCC-related death.

Comparison between hepatocellular carcinoma prognostic scores: A 10-year single-center experience and brief review of the current literature

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents the most common primitive liver malignancy. A relevant concern involves the lack of agreement on staging systems, prognostic scores, and treatment allocation algorithms. 

AIM

To compare the survival rates among already developed prognostic scores.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 140 patients with HCC diagnosed between February 2006 and November 2017. Patients were categorized according to 15 prognostic scoring systems and estimated median survivals were compared with those available from the current medical literature.

RESULTS

The median overall survival of the cohort of patients was 35 (17; 67) mo, and it was statistically different in relation to treatment choice, ultrasound surveillance, and serum alpha-fetoprotein. The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) tumor staging system performed best in predicting survival according to stage allocation among all 15 evaluated prognostic scores. Using the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system, 28.6%, 40.7%, 22.1%, and 8.6% of patients fell within stages 0-1, 2-3, 4-5 and > 5 respectively. The median survival was 57.9 mo for stages 0-1, 43 mo for stages 2-3, 21.7 mo for stages 4-5, and 10.4 mo for stage > 5. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were respectively 95%, 65%, and 20%, for stages 0-1; 94.7%, 43.9% and 26.3% for stages 2-3; 71%, 25.8% and 16.1% for stages 4-5; and 50%, 16.7% and 8.3% for stage > 5. At the same time, although statistically significant in prognostic stratification, the most commonly used Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system showed one of the most relevant differences in median survival, especially for stages A and C, when compared to the medical literature. In fact, 10.7%, 59.3%, 27.1%, 1.4%, and 0% of patients were stratified into stages 0, A, B, C, and D respectively. The median survival was > 81.1 mo for stage 0, 44.9 mo for stage A, 21.3 mo for stage B, and 3.1 mo for stage C. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were respectively 86.7%, 60%, and 46.7% for stage 0; 91.6%, 50.6%, and 20.5% for stage A; 73.7%, 23.7% and 13.2% for stage B; and 2%, 0% and 0% for stage C.

CONCLUSION

Survival analysis shows excellent prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA scoring system compared to other staging systems.