Predictive value of pulse oximetry for mortality in infants and children presenting to primary care with clinical pneumonia in rural Malawi: A data linkage study

The Tools for Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (TIMCI) study protocol: a multi-country mixed-method evaluation of pulse oximetry and clinical decision support algorithms

Effective and sustainable strategies are needed to address the burden of preventable deaths among children under-five in resource-constrained settings. The Tools for Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (TIMCI) project aims to support healthcare providers to identify and manage severe illness, whilst promoting resource stewardship, by introducing pulse oximetry and clinical decision support algorithms (CDSAs) to primary care facilities in India, Kenya, Senegal and Tanzania. Health impact is assessed through: a pragmatic parallel group, superiority cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT), with primary care facilities randomly allocated (1:1) in India to pulse oximetry or control, and (1:1:1) in Tanzania to pulse oximetry plus CDSA, pulse oximetry, or control; and through a quasi-experimental pre-post study in Kenya and Senegal. Devices are implemented with guidance and training, mentorship, and community engagement. Sociodemographic and clinical data are collected from caregivers and records of enrolled sick children aged 0-59 months at study facilities, with phone follow-up on Day 7 (and Day 28 in the RCT). The primary outcomes assessed for the RCT are severe complications (mortality and secondary hospitalisations) by Day 7 and primary hospitalisations (within 24 hours and with referral); and, for the pre-post study, referrals and antibiotic. Secondary outcomes on other aspects of health status, hypoxaemia, referral, follow-up and antimicrobial prescription are also evaluated. In all countries, embedded mixed-method studies further evaluate the effects of the intervention on care and care processes, implementation, cost and cost-effectiveness. Pilot and baseline studies started mid-2021, RCT and post-intervention mid-2022, with anticipated completion mid-2023 and first results late-2023. Study approval has been granted by all relevant institutional review boards, national and WHO ethical review committees. Findings will be shared with communities, healthcare providers, Ministries of Health and other local, national and international stakeholders to facilitate evidence-based decision-making on scale-up.Study registration: NCT04910750 and NCT05065320.

Factors predicting mortality in hospitalised HIV-negative children with lower-chest-wall indrawing pneumonia and implications for management

INTRODUCTION

In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model.

METHODS

PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2.

RESULTS

Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76).

CONCLUSIONS

Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.

Implication of the 2014 World Health Organization Integrated Management of Childhood Illness Pneumonia Guidelines with and without pulse oximetry use in Malawi: A retrospective cohort study

Background

Under-5 pneumonia mortality remains high in low-income countries. In 2014 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised that children with chest indrawing pneumonia, but without danger signs or peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO 2) < 90% be treated in the community, rather than hospitalized. In Malawi there is limited pulse oximetry availability.

Methods

Secondary analysis of 13,413 under-5 pneumonia cases in Malawi. Pneumonia associated case fatality ratios (CFR) were calculated by disease severity under the assumptions of the 2005 and 2014 WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines, with and without pulse oximetry. We investigated if pulse oximetry readings were missing not at random (MNAR).

Results

The CFR of patients classified as having non-severe pneumonia per the 2014 IMCI guidelines doubled under the assumption that pulse oximetry was not available (1.5% without pulse oximetry vs 0.7% with pulse oximetry, P<0.001). When 2014 IMCI guidelines were applied with pulse oximetry and a SpO 2 < 90% as the threshold for referral and/or admission, the number of cases meeting hospitalization criteria decreased by 70.3%. Unrecorded pulse oximetry readings were MNAR with an adjusted odds for mortality of 4.9 (3.8, 6.3), similar to that of a SpO 2 < 90%. Although fewer girls were hospitalized, female sex was an independent mortality risk factor.

Conclusions

In Malawi, implementation of the 2014 WHO IMCI pneumonia guidelines, without pulse oximetry, will miss high risk cases. Alternatively, implementation of pulse oximetry may result in a large reduction in hospitalization rates without significantly increasing non-severe pneumonia associated CFR if the inability to obtain a pulse oximetry reading is considered a WHO danger sign.

Clinical hypoxemia score for outpatient child pneumonia care lacking pulse oximetry in Africa and South Asia

Background

Pulse oximeters are not routinely available in outpatient clinics in low- and middle-income countries. We derived clinical scores to identify hypoxemic child pneumonia.

Methods

This was a retrospective pooled analysis of two outpatient datasets of 3-35 month olds with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined pneumonia in Bangladesh and Malawi. We constructed, internally validated, and compared fit & discrimination of four models predicting SpO2 < 93% and <90%: (1) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines, (2) WHO-composite guidelines, (3) Independent variable least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO); (4) Composite variable LASSO.

Results

12,712 observations were included. The independent and composite LASSO models discriminated moderately (both C-statistic 0.77) between children with a SpO2 < 93% and ≥94%; model predictive capacities remained moderate after adjusting for potential overfitting (C-statistic 0.74 and 0.75). The IMCI and WHO-composite models had poorer discrimination (C-statistic 0.56 and 0.68) and identified 20.6% and 56.8% of SpO2 < 93% cases. The highest score stratum of the independent and composite LASSO models identified 46.7% and 49.0% of SpO2 < 93% cases. Both LASSO models had similar performance for a SpO2 < 90%.

Conclusions

In the absence of pulse oximeters, both LASSO models better identified outpatient hypoxemic pneumonia cases than the WHO guidelines. Score external validation and implementation are needed.

Pulse oximetry training landscape for healthcare workers in low- and middle-income countries: A scoping review

Background

Pulse oximetry has been used in medical care for decades. Its use quickly became standard of care in high resource settings, with delayed widespread availability and use in lower resource settings. Pulse oximetry training initiatives have been ongoing for years, but a map of the literature describing such initiatives among health care workers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has not previously been conducted. Additionally, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic further highlighted the inequitable distribution of pulse oximetry use and training. We aimed to characterise the landscape of pulse oximetry training for health care workers in LMICs prior to the COVID-19 pandemic as described in the literature.

Methods

We systematically searched six databases to identify studies reporting pulse oximetry training among health care workers, broadly defined, in LMICs prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Two reviewers independently assessed titles and abstracts and relevant full texts for eligibility. Data were charted by one author and reviewed for accuracy by a second. We synthesised the results using a narrative synthesis.

Results

A total of 7423 studies were identified and 182 screened in full. A total of 55 training initiatives in 42 countries met inclusion criteria, as described in 66 studies since some included studies reported on different aspects of the same training initiative. Five overarching reasons for conducting pulse oximetry training were identified: 1) anaesthesia and perioperative care, 2) respiratory support programme expansion, 3) perinatal assessment and monitoring, 4) assessment and monitoring of children and 5) assessment and monitoring of adults. Educational programmes varied in their purpose with respect to the types of patients being targeted, the health care workers being instructed, and the depth of pulse oximetry specific training.

Conclusions

Pulse oximetry training initiatives have been ongoing for decades for a variety of purposes, utilising a multitude of approaches to equip health care workers with tools to improve patient care. It is important that these initiatives continue as pulse oximetry availability and knowledge gaps remain. Neither pulse oximetry provision nor training alone is enough to bolster patient care, but sustainable solutions for both must be considered to meet the needs of both health care workers and patients.

Risk and accuracy of outpatient-identified hypoxaemia for death among suspected child pneumonia cases in rural Bangladesh: a multifacility prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hypoxaemic pneumonia mortality risk in low-income and middle-income countries is high in children who have been hospitalised, but unknown among outpatient children. We sought to establish the outpatient burden, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of death from hypoxaemia in children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective community-based cohort study encompassing three upazila (subdistrict) health complex catchment areas in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Children aged 3-35 months participating in a community surveillance programme and presenting to one of three upazila health complex Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) outpatient clinics with an acute illness and signs of difficult breathing (defined as suspected pneumonia) were enrolled in the study; because lower respiratory tract infection mortality mainly occurs in children younger than 1 year, the primary study population comprised children aged 3-11 months. Study physicians recorded WHO IMCI pneumonia guideline clinical signs and peripheral arterial oxyhaemoglobin saturations (SpO2) in room air. They treated children with pneumonia with antibiotics (oral amoxicillin [40 mg/kg per dose twice per day for 5-7 days, as per local practice]), and recommended oxygen, parenteral antibiotics, and hospitalisation for those with an SpO2 of less than 90%, WHO IMCI danger signs, or severe malnutrition. Community health workers documented the children's vital status and the date of any vital status changes during routine household surveillance (one visit to each household every 2 months). The primary outcome was death at 2 weeks after enrolment in children aged 3-11 months (primary study population) and 12-35 months (secondary study population). Primary analyses included estimating the outpatient prevalence, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of hypoxaemia for death in children aged 3-11 months with suspected pneumonia. Risk ratios were produced by fitting a multivariable model that regressed predefined SpO2 ranges (<90%, 90-93%, and 94-100%) on the primary 2-week mortality outcome (binary outcome) using Poisson models with robust variance estimation. We established the prognostic accuracy of WHO IMCI guidelines for death with and without varying SpO2 thresholds.

FINDINGS

Participants were recruited between Sept 1, 2015, to Aug 31, 2017. During the study period, a total of 7440 children aged 3-35 months with the first suspected pneumonia episode were enrolled, of whom 3848 (54·3%) with an attempted pulse oximeter measurement and 2-week outcome were included in our primary study population of children aged 3-11-months. Among children aged 3-11 months, an SpO2 of less than 90% occurred in 102 (2·7%) of 3848 children, an SpO2 of 90-93% occurred in 306 (8·0%) children, a failed SpO2 measurement occurred in 67 (1·7%) children, and 24 (0·6%) children with suspected pneumonia died. Compared with an SpO2 of 94-100% (3373 [87·7%] of 3848), the adjusted risk ratio for death was 10·3 (95% CI 3·2-32·3; p<0·001) for an SpO2 of less than 90%, 4·3 (1·5-11·8; p=0·005) for an SpO2 of 90-93%, and 11·4 (3·1-41·4; p<0·001) for a failed measurement. When not considering pulse oximetry, of the children who died, WHO IMCI guidelines identified only 25·0% (95% CI 9·7-46·7; six of 24 children) as eligible for referral to hospital. For identifying deaths, in children with an SpO2 of less than 90% WHO IMCI guidelines had a 41·7% sensitivity (95% CI 22·1-63·4) and 89·7% specificity (88·7-90·7); for children with an SpO2 of less than 90% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 54·2% sensitivity (32·8-74·4) and 88·3% specificity (87·2-89·3); and for children with an SpO2 of less than 94% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 62·5% sensitivity (40·6-81·2) and 81·3% specificity (80·0-82·5).

INTERPRETATION

These findings support pulse oximeter use during the outpatient care of young children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh as well as the re-evaluation of the WHO IMCI currently recommended threshold of an SpO2 less than 90% for hospital referral.

FUNDING

Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health (K01TW009988), The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1084286 and OPP1117483), and GlaxoSmithKline (90063241).

Usability of pulse oximeters used by community health and primary care workers as screening tools for severe illness in children under five in low resource settings: A cross-sectional study in Cambodia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda

Timely recognition and referral of severely ill children is especially critical in low-resource health systems. Pulse-oximeters can improve health outcomes of children by detecting hypoxaemia, a severity indicator of the most common causes of death in children. Cost-effectiveness of pulse-oximeters has been proven in low-income settings. However, evidence on their usability in community health settings is scarce.This study explores the usability of pulse-oximeters for community health and primary care workers in Cambodia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda. We collected observational data, through a nine-task checklist, and survey data, using a five-point Likert scale questionnaire, capturing three usability aspects (effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction) of single-probe fingertip and multi-probe handheld devices. Effectiveness was determined by checklist completion rates and task completion rates per checklist item. Efficiency was reported as proportion of successful assessments within three attempts. Standardized summated questionnaire scores (min = 0, max = 100) determined health worker's satisfaction. Influencing factors on effectiveness and satisfaction were explored through hypothesis tests between independent groups (device type, cadre of health worker, country). Checklist completion rate was 78.3% [CI 72.6-83.0]. Choosing probes according to child age showed the lowest task completion rate of 68.7% [CI 60.3%-76.0%]. In 95.6% [CI 92.7%-97.4%] of assessments a reading was obtained within three attempts. The median satisfaction score was 95.6 [IQR = 92.2-99.0]. Significantly higher checklist completion rates were observed with single-probe fingertip devices (p<0.001) and children 12-59 months (p<0.001). We found higher satisfaction scores in South Sudan (p<0.001) and satisfaction varied slightly between devices. From a usability perspective single-probe devices for all age groups should be prioritized for scaled implementation. Further research on easy to use and accurate devices for infants is much needed.

Assembling a global database of child pneumonia studies to inform WHO pneumonia management algorithm: Methodology and applications

Background

The existing World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia case management guidelines rely on clinical symptoms and signs for identifying, classifying, and treating pneumonia in children up to 5 years old. We aimed to collate an individual patient-level data set from large, high-quality pre-existing studies on pneumonia in children to identify a set of signs and symptoms with greater validity in the diagnosis, prognosis, and possible treatment of childhood pneumonia for the improvement of current pneumonia case management guidelines.

Methods

Using data from a published systematic review and expert knowledge, we identified studies meeting our eligibility criteria and invited investigators to share individual-level patient data. We collected data on demographic information, general medical history, and current illness episode, including history, clinical presentation, chest radiograph findings when available, treatment, and outcome. Data were gathered separately from hospital-based and community-based cases. We performed a narrative synthesis to describe the final data set.

Results

Forty-one separate data sets were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) database, 26 of which were hospital-based and 15 were community-based. The PREPARE database includes 285 839 children with pneumonia (244 323 in the hospital and 41 516 in the community), with detailed descriptions of clinical presentation, clinical progression, and outcome. Of 9185 pneumonia-related deaths, 6836 (74%) occurred in children <1 year of age and 1317 (14%) in children aged 1-2 years. Of the 285 839 episodes, 280 998 occurred in children 0-59 months old, of which 129 584 (46%) were 2-11 months of age and 152 730 (54%) were males.

Conclusions

This data set could identify an improved specific, sensitive set of criteria for diagnosing clinical pneumonia and help identify sick children in need of referral to a higher level of care or a change of therapy. Field studies could be designed based on insights from PREPARE analyses to validate a potential revised pneumonia algorithm. The PREPARE methodology can also act as a model for disease database assembly.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of pulse oximetry in primary care management of acute respiratory infection in rural northern Thailand

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of supplementing standard care with pulse oximetry among children <5 years with acute respiratory infection (ARI) presenting to 32 primary care units in a rural district (total population 241,436) of Chiang Rai province, Thailand, and to assess the economic effects of extending pulse oximetry to older patients with ARI in this setting.

METHODS

We performed a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis from a health systems perspective. Decision trees were constructed for three patient categories (children <5 years, children 5-14 years, and adults), with a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were based on data from 49,958 patients included in a review of acute infection management in the 32 primary care units, published studies, and procurement price lists. Parameters were varied in deterministic sensitivity analyses. Costs were expressed in 2021 US dollars with a willingness-to-pay threshold per DALY averted of $8624.

RESULTS

The annual direct cost of pulse oximetry, associated staff, training, and monitoring was $24,243. It reduced deaths from severe lower respiratory tract infections in children <5 years by 0.19 per 100,000 patients annually. In our population of 14,075 children <5 years, this was equivalent to 2.0 DALYs averted per year. When downstream costs such as those related to hospitalisation and inappropriate antibiotic prescription were considered, pulse oximetry dominated standard care, saving $12,757 annually. This intervention yielded smaller mortality gains in older patients but resulted in further cost savings, primarily by reducing inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions in these age groups. The dominance of the intervention was also demonstrated in all sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Pulse oximetry is a life-saving, cost-effective adjunct in ARI primary care management in rural northern Thailand. This finding is likely to be generalisable to neighbouring countries with similar disease epidemiology and health systems.

Which children with chest-indrawing pneumonia can be safely treated at home, and under what conditions is it safe to do so? A systematic review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries

Background

WHO pneumonia guidelines recommend that children (aged 2-59 months) with chest indrawing pneumonia and without any “general danger sign” can be treated with oral amoxicillin without hospital admission. This recommendation was based on trial data from limited contexts whose generalisability is unclear. This review aimed to identify which children with chest-indrawing pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries can be safely treated at home, and under what conditions is it safe to do so.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies of home-based management of children (aged 28 days to four years) with chest-indrawing pneumonia in low- or middle-income countries.

Results

We included 14 studies, including seven randomised trials, from a variety of urban and rural contexts in 11 countries. Two community-based and two hospital-based trials in Pakistan and India found that home treatment of chest-indrawing pneumonia was associated with similar or superior treatment outcomes to hospital admission. Evidence from trials (n = 3) and observational (n = 6) studies in these and other countries confirms the acceptability and feasibility of home management of chest-indrawing pneumonia in low-risk cases, so long as safeguards are in place. Risk assessment includes clinical danger signs, oxygen saturation, and the presence of comorbidities such as undernutrition, anaemia, or HIV. Pulse oximetry is a critical risk-assessment tool that is currently not widely available and can identify severely ill patients with hypoxaemia otherwise possibly missed by clinical assessment alone. Additional safeguards include caregiver understanding and ability to return for review.

Conclusions

Home treatment of chest-indrawing pneumonia can be safe but should only be recommended for children confirmed to be low-risk and in contexts where appropriate care and safety measures are in place.

Introducing pulse oximetry for outpatient management of childhood pneumonia: An implementation research adopting a district implementation model in selected rural facilities in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Pulse oximetry has potential for identifying hypoxaemic pneumonia and substantially reducing under-five deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting. However, there are few examples of introducing pulse oximetry in resource-constrained paediatric outpatient settings, such as Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) services.

METHODS

The National IMCI-programme of Bangladesh designed and developed a district implementation model for introducing pulse oximetry in routine IMCI services through stakeholder engagement and demonstrated the model in Kushtia district adopting a health system strengthening approach. Between December 2020 and June 2021, two rounds of assessment were conducted based on WHO's implementation research framework and outcome variables, involving 22 IMCI service-providers and 1680 children presenting with cough/difficulty-in-breathing in 12 health facilities. The data collection procedures included structured-observations, re-assessments, interviews, and data-extraction by trained study personnel.

FINDINGS

We observed that IMCI service-providers conducted pulse oximetry assessments on all eligible children in routine outpatient settings, of which 99% of assessments were successful; 85% (95% CI 83,87) in one attempt, and 69% (95% CI 67,71) within one minute. The adherence to standard operating procedure related to pulse oximetry was 92% (95% CI 91,93), and agreement regarding identifying hypoxaemia was 97% (95% CI 96,98). The median performance-time was 36 seconds (IQR 20,75), which was longer among younger children (2-11 months: 44s, IQR 22,78; 12-59 months: 30s, IQR 18,53, p < 0.01) and among those classified as pneumonia/severe-pneumonia than as no-pneumonia (41s, IQR 22,70; 32s, IQR 20,62, p < 0.01). We observed improvements in almost all indicators in round-2. IMCI service-providers and caregivers showed positive attitudes towards using this novel technology for assessing their children.

INTERPRETATION

This implementation research study suggested the adoption, feasibility, fidelity, appropriateness, acceptability, and sustainability of pulse oximetry introduction in routine IMCI services in resource-poor settings. The learning may inform the evidence-based scale-up of pulse oximetry linked with an oxygen delivery system in Bangladesh and other LMICs.

FUNDING

This research was funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (Global Health Research Unit on Respiratory Health (RESPIRE); 16/136/109) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research.

Prospective cohort study of referred Malawian children and their survival by hypoxaemia and hypoglycaemia status

Objective

To investigate survival in children referred from primary care in Malawi, with a focus on hypoglycaemia and hypoxaemia progression.

Methods

The study involved a prospective cohort of children aged 12 years or under referred from primary health-care facilities in Mchinji district, Malawi in 2019 and 2020. Peripheral blood oxygen saturation (SpO₂) and blood glucose were measured at recruitment and on arrival at a subsequent health-care facility (i.e. four hospitals and 14 primary health-care facilities). Children were followed up 2 weeks after discharge or their last clinical visit. The primary study outcome was the case fatality ratio at 2 weeks. Associations between SpO₂ and blood glucose levels and death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and the treatment effect of hospitalization was assessed using propensity score matching.

Findings

Of 826 children recruited, 784 (94.9%) completed follow-up. At presentation, hypoxaemia was moderate (SpO₂: 90-93%) in 13.1% (108/826) and severe (SpO₂: < 90%) in 8.6% (71/826) and hypoglycaemia was moderate (blood glucose: 2.5-4.0 mmol/L) in 9.0% (74/826) and severe (blood glucose: < 2.5 mmol/L) in 2.3% (19/826). The case fatality ratio was 3.7% (29/784) overall but 26.3% (5/19) in severely hypoglycaemic children and 12.7% (9/71) in severely hypoxaemic children. Neither moderate hypoglycaemia nor moderate hypoxaemia was associated with mortality.

Conclusion

Presumptive pre-referral glucose treatment and better management of hypoglycaemia could reduce the high case fatality ratio observed in children with severe hypoglycaemia. The morbidity and mortality burden of severe hypoxaemia was high; ways of improving hypoxaemia identification and management are needed.

Innovative, enhanced community management of non-hypoxaemic chest-indrawing pneumonia in 2-59-month-old children: a cluster-randomised trial in Africa and Asia

Introduction

The WHO recommends oral amoxicillin for 2–59-month-old children with chest-indrawing pneumonia presenting at the health facility. Community-level health workers (CLHWs) are not allowed to treat these children when presented at the community level. This study aimed to evaluate whether CLHWs can safely and effectively treat children 2–59 months-old with chest indrawing with a 5-day course of oral amoxicillin in a few selected countries in Africa and Asia, especially when a referral is not feasible.

Methods

We conducted a prospective multicountry cluster-randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial in rural areas of four countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India and Malawi) from September 2016 to December 2018. Children aged 2–59 months having parents/caregivers reported cough and/or difficult breathing presenting to a CLHW were screened for enrolment. CLHWs in the intervention clusters assessed children for hypoxaemia and treated non-hypoxaemic chest-indrawing pneumonia with two times per day oral amoxicillin (50 mg/kg body weight per dose) for 5 days at the community level. CLHWs in the control clusters identified chest indrawing and referred them to a referral-level health facility for treatment. Study supervisors performed pulse oximetry in the control clusters except in Bangladesh. Children were assessed for the primary outcome (clinical treatment failure) up to day 14 after enrolment. The accuracy and impact of pulse oximetry by CLHWs in the intervention clusters were also assessed.

Results

In 208 clusters, 1688 CLHWs assessed 62 363 children with cough and/or difficulty breathing. Of these, 4013 non-hypoxaemic 2–59-month-old children with chest-indrawing pneumonia were enrolled. We excluded 116 children from analysis, leaving 3897 for intention-to-treat analysis. In the intervention clusters, 4.3% (90/2081) failed treatment, including five deaths, while in the control clusters, 4.4% (79/1816) failed treatment, including five deaths. The adjusted risk difference was -0.01 (95% CI −1.5% to 1.5%), which satisfied the prespecified non-inferiority criterion. CLHWs correctly performed pulse oximetry in 91.1% (2001/2196) of cases in the intervention clusters.

Conclusions

The community treatment of non-hypoxaemic children with chest-indrawing pneumonia with 5-day oral amoxicillin by trained, equipped and supervised CLHWs is non-inferior to currently recommended facility-based treatment. These findings encourage a review of the existing strategy of community-based management of pneumonia.

Trial registration

ACTRN12617000857303; The Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry.

Hypoxemia, hypoglycemia and IMCI danger signs in pediatric outpatients in Malawi

Hypoxemia and hypoglycemia are known risks for mortality in children in low-income settings. Routine screening with pulse oximetry and blood glucose assessments for outpatients could assist in early identification of high-risk children. We assessed the prevalence of hypoglycemia and hypoxemia, and the overlap with Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) general danger signs, among children seeking outpatient care in Malawi. A cross-sectional study was conducted at 14 government primary care facilities, four rural hospitals and one district referral hospital in Mchinji district, Malawi from August 2019-April 2020. All children aged 0-12 years seeking care with an acute illness were assessed on one day per month in each facility. Study research assistants measured oxygen saturation using Lifebox LB-01 pulse oximeter and blood glucose was assessed with AccuCheck Aviva glucometers. World Health Organization definitions were used for severe hypoglycemia (<2.5mmol/l) and hypoxemia (SpO2 <90%). Moderate hypoglycemia (2.5-4.0mmol/l) and hypoxemia (SpO2 90-93%) were also calculated and prevalence levels compared between those with and without IMCI danger signs using chi2 tests. In total 2,943 children were enrolled, with a median age of 41 (range: 0-144) months. The prevalence of severe hypoxemia was 0.6% and moderate hypoxemia 5.4%. Severe hypoglycemia was present in 0.1% of children and moderate hypoglycemia in 11.1%. IMCI general danger signs were present in 29.3% of children. All severely hypoglycemic children presented with an IMCI danger sign (p <0.001), but only 23.5% of the severely hypoxemic and 31.7% of the moderately hypoxemic children. We conclude that while the prevalence of severe hypoxemia and hypoglycemia were low, moderate levels were not uncommon and could potentially be useful as an objective tool to determine referral needs. IMCI danger signs identified hypoglycemic children, but results highlight the challenge to detect hypoxemia. Future studies should explore case management strategies for moderate hypoxemia and hypoglycemia.

Hypoxaemia prevalence and management among children and adults presenting to primary care facilities in Uganda: A prospective cohort study

Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen) is common among hospitalised patients, increasing the odds of death five-fold and requiring prompt detection and treatment. However, we know little about hypoxaemia prevalence in primary care and the role for pulse oximetry and oxygen therapy. This study assessed the prevalence and management of hypoxaemia at primary care facilities in Uganda. We conducted a cross sectional prevalence study and prospective cohort study of children with hypoxaemia in 30 primary care facilities in Uganda, Feb-Apr 2021. Clinical data collectors used handheld pulse oximeters to measure blood oxygen level (SpO2) of all acutely unwell children, adolescents, and adults. We followed up a cohort of children aged under 15 years with SpO2<93% by phone after 7 days to determine if the patient had attended another health facility, been admitted, or recovered. Primary outcome: proportion of children under 5 years of age with severe hypoxaemia (SpO2<90%). Secondary outcomes: severe (SpO2<90%) and moderate hypoxaemia (SpO2 90-93%) prevalence by age/sex/complaint; number of children with hypoxaemia referred, admitted and recovered. We included 1561 children U5, 935 children 5-14 years, and 3284 adolescents/adults 15+ years. Among children U5, the prevalence of severe hypoxaemia was 1.3% (95% CI 0.9 to 2.1); an additional 4.9% (3.9 to 6.1) had moderate hypoxaemia. Performing pulse oximetry according to World Health Organization guidelines exclusively on children with respiratory complaints would have missed 14% (3/21) of severe hypoxaemia and 11% (6/55) of moderate hypoxaemia. Hypoxaemia prevalence was low among children 5-14 years (0.3% severe, 1.1% moderate) and adolescents/adults 15+ years (0.1% severe, 0.5% moderate). A minority (12/27, 44%) of severely hypoxaemic patients were referred; 3 (12%) received oxygen. We followed 87 children aged under 15 years with SpO2<93%, with complete data for 61 (70%), finding low rates of referral (6/61, 10%), hospital attendance (10/61, 16%), and admission (6/61, 10%) with most (44/61, 72%) fully recovered at day 7. Barriers to referral included caregiver belief it was unnecessary (42/51, 82%), cost (8/51, 16%), and distance or lack of transport (3/51, 6%). Hypoxaemia is common among acutely unwell children under five years of age presenting to Ugandan primary care facilities. Routine pulse oximetry has potential to improve referral, management and clinical outcomes. Effectiveness, acceptability, and feasibility of pulse oximetry and oxygen therapy for primary care should be investigated in implementation trials, including economic analysis from health system and societal perspectives.

Oxygen systems strengthening as an intervention to prevent childhood deaths due to pneumonia in low-resource settings: systematic review, meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVES

Increasing access to oxygen services may improve outcomes among children with pneumonia living in low-resource settings. We conducted a systematic review to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of strengthening oxygen services in low-income and middle-income countries with the objective of including oxygen as an intervention in the Lives Saved Tool.

DESIGN

We searched EMBASE and PubMed on 31 March 2021 using keywords and MeSH terms related to 'oxygen', 'pneumonia' and 'child' without restrictions on language or date. The risk of bias was assessed for all included studies using the quality assessment tool for quantitative studies, and we assessed the overall certainty of the evidence using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations. Meta-analysis methods using random effects with inverse-variance weights was used to calculate a pooled OR and 95% CIs. Programme cost data were extracted from full study reports and correspondence with study authors, and we estimated cost-effectiveness in US dollar per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted.

RESULTS

Our search identified 665 studies. Four studies were included in the review involving 75 hospitals and 34 485 study participants. We calculated a pooled OR of 0.52 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.70) in favour of oxygen systems reducing childhood pneumonia mortality. The median cost-effectiveness of oxygen systems strengthening was $US62 per DALY averted (range: US$44-US$225). We graded the risk of bias as moderate and the overall certainty of the evidence as low due to the non-randomised design of the studies.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that strengthening oxygen systems is likely to reduce hospital-based pneumonia mortality and may be cost-effective in low-resource settings. Additional implementation trials using more rigorous designs are needed to strengthen the certainty in the effect estimate.

Is Serum Lactate a Good Predictor of Mortality in Children Aged 2 Months to 5 Years With Pneumonia in Central Vietnam

Pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children globally. Lactate, a product of anaerobic cellular metabolism, has been used as an indicator of poor tissue oxygenation and cellular hypoxia. Our objective was to determine whether serum lactate concentration at hospital admission predicted mortality in children aged 2 months to 5 years with pneumonia. Two hundred and eighty-one pediatric patients admitted to the Department of Pediatrics of a provincial hospital with WHO-defined pneumonia and severe pneumonia were included; of whom, 8 died during hospital stay. The median serum lactate concentration was 4.8 mmol/l (IQR 2.6-6.9) among children who died and 3.6 mmol/l (IQR 2.8-4.3) among children who survived (P > .05); 4.1 mmol/l (IQR 2.7-4.7) among children with severe pneumonia and 3.5 mmol/l (IQR 2.8-4.3) among children with pneumonia (P > .05). Serum lactate concentration had a low value in predicting pneumonia-related mortality (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.73); and the concentration cut-off of >4.06 mmol/l had the best sensitivity and specificity (75% and 68.9%, respectively) with a 2.4-fold risk of death (LR+ 2.4; 95% CI 1.6-3.7). Although hyperlactatemia was associated with severity and mortality in children 2 months to 5 years of age with pneumonia, its benefit was unclear.

The impact of pulse oximetry on diagnosis, management and outcomes of acute febrile illness in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Acute fever is a common presenting symptom in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) and is strongly associated with sepsis. Hypoxaemia predicts disease severity in such patients but is poorly detected by clinical examination. Therefore, including pulse oximetry in the assessment of acutely febrile patients may improve clinical outcomes in LMIC settings.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies of any design comparing one group where pulse oximetry was used and at least one group where it was not. The target population was patients of any age presenting with acute febrile illness or associated syndromes in LMICs. Studies were obtained from searching PubMed, EMBASE, CABI Global Health, Global Index Medicus, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science and DARE. Further studies were identified through searches of non-governmental organisation websites, snowballing and input from a Technical Advisory Panel. Outcomes of interest were diagnosis, management and patient outcomes. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool for Cluster Randomised Trials and Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tools, as appropriate.

RESULTS

Ten of 4898 studies were eligible for inclusion. Their small number and heterogeneity prevented formal meta-analysis. All studies were in children, eight only recruited patients with pneumonia, and nine were conducted in Africa or Australasia. Six were at serious risk of bias. There was moderately strong evidence for the utility of pulse oximetry in diagnosing pneumonia and identifying severe disease requiring hospital referral. Pulse oximetry used as part of a quality-assured facility-wide package of interventions may reduce pneumonia mortality, but studies assessing this endpoint were at serious risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Very few studies addressed this important question. In LMICs, pulse oximetry may assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing paediatric pneumonia, but for the greatest impact on patient outcomes should be implemented as part of a health systems approach. The evidence for these conclusions is not widely generalisable and is of poor quality.

Defining hypoxaemia from pulse oximeter measurements of oxygen saturation in well children at low altitude in Bangladesh: an observational study

Background

WHO defines hypoxaemia, a low peripheral arterial oxyhaemoglobin saturation (SpO₂), as <90%. Although hypoxaemia is an important risk factor for mortality of children with respiratory infections, the optimal SpO₂ threshold for defining hypoxaemia is uncertain in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We derived a SpO₂ threshold for hypoxaemia from well children in Bangladesh residing at low altitude.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled well, children aged 3–35 months participating in a pneumococcal vaccine evaluation in Sylhet district, Bangladesh between June and August 2017. Trained health workers conducting community surveillance measured the SpO₂ of children using a Masimo Rad-5 pulse oximeter with a wrap sensor. We used standard summary statistics to evaluate the SpO₂ distribution, including whether the distribution differed by age or sex. We considered the 2.5th, 5th and 10th percentiles of SpO₂ as possible lower thresholds for hypoxaemia.

Results

Our primary analytical sample included 1470 children (mean age 18.6±9.5 months). Median SpO₂ was 98% (IQR 96%–99%), and the 2.5th, 5th and 10th percentile SpO₂ was 91%, 92% and 94%. No child had a SpO₂ <90%. Children 3–11 months had a lower median SpO₂ (97%) than 12–23 months (98%) and 24–35 months (98%) (p=0.039). The SpO₂ distribution did not differ by sex (p=0.959).

Conclusion

A SpO₂ threshold for hypoxaemia derived from the 2.5th, 5th or 10th percentile of well children is higher than <90%. If a higher threshold than <90% is adopted into LMIC care algorithms then decision-making using SpO₂ must also consider the child’s clinical status to minimise misclassification of well children as hypoxaemic. Younger children in lower altitude LMICs may require a different threshold for hypoxaemia than older children. Evaluating the mortality risk of sick children using higher SpO₂ thresholds for hypoxaemia is a key next step.

Global emergency medicine: A scoping review of the literature from 2020

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to identify, screen, highlight, review, and summarize some of the most rigorously conducted and impactful original research (OR) and review articles (RE) in global emergency medicine (EM) published in 2020 in the peer-reviewed and gray literature.

METHODS

A broad systematic search of peer-reviewed publications related to global EM indexed on PubMed and in the gray literature was conducted. The titles and abstracts of the articles on this list were screened by members of the Global Emergency Medicine Literature Review (GEMLR) Group to identify those that met our criteria of OR or RE in the domains of disaster and humanitarian response (DHR), emergency care in resource-limited settings (ECRLS), and EM development. Those articles that met these screening criteria were then scored using one of three scoring templates appropriate to the article type. Those articles that scored in the top 5% then underwent in-depth narrative summarization.

RESULTS

The 2020 GEMLR search initially identified 35,970 articles, more than 50% more than last year's search. From these, 364 were scored based on their full text. Nearly three-fourths of the scored articles constituted OR, of which nearly three-fourths employed quantitative research methods. Nearly 10% of the articles identified this year were directly related to COVID-19. Research involving ECRLS again constituted most of the articles in this year's review, accounting for more than 60% of the literature scored. A total of 20 articles underwent in-depth narrative critiques.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of studies relevant to global EM identified by our search was very similar to that of last year. Revisions to our methodology to identify a broader range of research were successful in identifying more qualitative research and studies related to DHR. The number of COVID-19-related articles is likely to continue to increase in subsequent years.

Pulse oximetry adoption and oxygen orders at paediatric admission over 7 years in Kenya: a multihospital retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To characterise adoption and explore specific clinical and patient factors that might influence pulse oximetry and oxygen use in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) over time; to highlight useful considerations for entities working on programmes to improve access to pulse oximetry and oxygen.

DESIGN

A multihospital retrospective cohort study.

SETTINGS

All admissions (n=132 737) to paediatric wards of 18 purposely selected public hospitals in Kenya that joined a Clinical Information Network (CIN) between March 2014 and December 2020.

OUTCOMES

Pulse oximetry use and oxygen prescription on admission; we performed growth-curve modelling to investigate the association of patient factors with study outcomes over time while adjusting for hospital factors.

RESULTS

Overall, pulse oximetry was used in 48.8% (64 722/132 737) of all admission cases. Use rose on average with each month of participation in the CIN (OR: 1.11, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.18) but patterns of adoption were highly variable across hospitals suggesting important factors at hospital level influence use of pulse oximetry. Of those with pulse oximetry measurement, 7% (4510/64 722) had hypoxaemia (SpO2 <90%). Across the same period, 8.6% (11 428/132 737) had oxygen prescribed but in 87%, pulse oximetry was either not done or the hypoxaemia threshold (SpO2 <90%) was not met. Lower chest-wall indrawing and other respiratory symptoms were associated with pulse oximetry use at admission and were also associated with oxygen prescription in the absence of pulse oximetry or hypoxaemia.

CONCLUSION

The adoption of pulse oximetry recommended in international guidelines for assessing children with severe illness has been slow and erratic, reflecting system and organisational weaknesses. Most oxygen orders at admission seem driven by clinical and situational factors other than the presence of hypoxaemia. Programmes aiming to implement pulse oximetry and oxygen systems will likely need a long-term vision to promote adoption, guideline development and adherence and continuously examine impact.

Anticipating the future: prognostic tools as a complementary strategy to improve care for patients with febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings

In low-income and middle-income countries, most patients with febrile illnesses present to peripheral levels of the health system where diagnostic capacity is very limited. In these contexts, accurate risk stratification can be particularly impactful, helping to guide allocation of scarce resources to ensure timely and tailored care. However, reporting of prognostic research is often imprecise and few prognostic tests or algorithms are translated into clinical practice.

Here, we review the often-conflated concepts of prognosis and diagnosis, with a focus on patients with febrile illnesses. Drawing on a recent global stakeholder consultation, we apply these concepts to propose three use-cases for prognostic tools in the management of febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings: (1) guiding referrals from the community to higher-level care; (2) informing resource allocation for patients admitted to hospital and (3) identifying patients who may benefit from closer follow-up post-hospital discharge. We explore the practical implications for new technologies and reflect on the challenges and knowledge gaps that must be addressed before this approach could be incorporated into routine care settings.

Our intention is that these use-cases, alongside other recent initiatives, will help to promote a harmonised yet contextualised approach for prognostic research in febrile illness. We argue that this is especially important given the heterogeneous settings in which care is often provided for patients with febrile illnesses living in low-income and middle-income countries.

Employing learning health system principles to advance research on severe neonatal and paediatric illness in Kenya

We have worked to develop a Clinical Information Network (CIN) in Kenya as an early form of learning health systems (LHS) focused on paediatric and neonatal care that now spans 22 hospitals. CIN's aim was to examine important outcomes of hospitalisation at scale, identify and ultimately solve practical problems of service delivery, drive improvements in quality and test interventions. By including multiple routine settings in research, we aimed to promote generalisability of findings and demonstrate potential efficiencies derived from LHS. We illustrate the nature and range of research CIN has supported over the past 7 years as a form of LHS. Clinically, this has largely focused on common, serious paediatric illnesses such as pneumonia, malaria and diarrhoea with dehydration with recent extensions to neonatal illnesses. CIN also enables examination of the quality of care, for example that provided to children with severe malnutrition and the challenges encountered in routine settings in adopting simple technologies (pulse oximetry) and more advanced diagnostics (eg, Xpert MTB/RIF). Although regular feedback to hospitals has been associated with some improvements in quality data continue to highlight system challenges that undermine provision of basic, quality care (eg, poor access to blood glucose testing and routine microbiology). These challenges include those associated with increased mortality risk (eg, delays in blood transfusion). Using the same data the CIN platform has enabled conduct of randomised trials and supports malaria vaccine and most recently COVID-19 surveillance. Employing LHS principles has meant engaging front-line workers, clinical managers and national stakeholders throughout. Our experience suggests LHS can be developed in low and middle-income countries that efficiently enable contextually appropriate research and contribute to strengthening of health services and research systems.