Spatial epidemiology and adaptive targeted sampling to manage the Chagas disease vector Triatoma dimidiata

A brief review and guidance on the spatiotemporal sampling designs for disease vector surveillance

Obtaining a representative sample of disease vectors (mosquitoes, flies, ticks, etc.) is essential for researchers to draw meaningful conclusions about the entire vector population in a target study area and during a specific study period. To achieve this, a carefully chosen surveillance design is required to ensure that the sample captures essential spatial and temporal variations in the target vector population(s) and/or that the study results can be generalized to the entire population. Designed-based and model-based spatiotemporal sampling (or in our context surveillance) designs can be used to maximize information gain within given resource constraints. In this paper, we aim to offer a concise overview of common spatiotemporal field sampling designs, their advantages and disadvantages and their practical applications in the context of surveillance and management of vector-borne diseases. At the end of the article, we offer guidance to help vector-borne disease surveillance planners design effective spatiotemporal surveillance interventions.

Domestic (re)infestation risk with the main vector Triatoma infestans increases with surrounding green vegetation and social vulnerability in the Argentine Chaco

BACKGROUND

Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is still a public health problem in Latin America and in the Southern Cone countries, where Triatoma infestans is the main vector. We evaluated the relationships among the density of green vegetation around rural houses, sociodemographic characteristics, and domestic (re)infestation with T. infestans while accounting for their spatial dependence in the municipality of Pampa del Indio between 2007 and 2016.

METHODS

The study comprised sociodemographic and ecological variables from 734 rural houses with no missing data. Green vegetation density surrounding houses was estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We used a hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression composed of fixed effects and spatial random effects to estimate domestic infestation risk and quantile regressions to evaluate the association between surrounding NDVI and selected sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

Qom ethnicity and the number of poultry were negatively associated with surrounding NDVI, whereas overcrowding was positively associated with surrounding NDVI. Hierarchical Bayesian models identified that domestic infestation was positively associated with surrounding NDVI, suitable walls for triatomines, and overcrowding over both intervention periods. Preintervention domestic infestation also was positively associated with Qom ethnicity. Models with spatial random effects performed better than models without spatial effects. The former identified geographic areas with a domestic infestation risk not accounted for by fixed-effect variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Domestic infestation with T. infestans was associated with the density of green vegetation surrounding rural houses and social vulnerability over a decade of sustained vector control interventions. High density of green vegetation surrounding rural houses was associated with households with more vulnerable social conditions. Evaluation of domestic infestation risk should simultaneously consider social, landscape and spatial effects to control for their mutual dependency. Hierarchical Bayesian models provided a proficient methodology to identify areas for targeted triatomine and disease surveillance and control.

Adapting vector surveillance using Bayesian experimental design: An application to an ongoing tick monitoring program in the southeastern United States

Maps of the distribution of medically-important ticks throughout the US remain lacking in spatial and temporal resolution in many areas, leading to holes in our understanding of where and when people are at risk of tick encounters, an important baseline for informing public health response. In this work, we demonstrate the use of Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) in planning spatiotemporal surveillance of disease vectors. We frame survey planning as an optimization problem with the objective of identifying a calendar of sampling locations that maximizes the expected information regarding some goal. Here we consider the goals of understanding associations between environmental factors and tick presence and minimizing uncertainty in high risk areas. We illustrate our proposed BED workflow using an ongoing tick surveillance study in South Carolina parks. Following a model comparison study based on two years of initial data, several techniques for finding optimal surveys were compared to random sampling. Two optimization algorithms found surveys better than all replications of random sampling, while a space-filling heuristic performed favorably as well. Further, optimal surveys of just 20 visits were more effective than repeating the schedule of 111 visits used in 2021. We conclude that BED shows promise as a flexible and rigorous means of survey design for vector control, and could help alleviate pressure on local agencies by limiting the resources necessary for accurate information on arthropod distributions. We have made the code for our BED workflow publicly available on Zenodo to help promote the application of these methods to future surveillance efforts.

Operationalizing cultural adaptation to climate change: contemporary examples from United States agriculture

It has been proposed that climate adaptation research can benefit from an evolutionary approach. But related empirical research is lacking. We advance the evolutionary study of climate adaptation with two case studies from contemporary United States agriculture. First, we define 'cultural adaptation to climate change' as a mechanistic process of population-level cultural change. We argue this definition enables rigorous comparisons, yields testable hypotheses from mathematical theory and distinguishes adaptive change, non-adaptive change and desirable policy outcomes. Next, we develop an operational approach to identify 'cultural adaptation to climate change' based on established empirical criteria. We apply this approach to data on crop choices and the use of cover crops between 2008 and 2021 from the United States. We find evidence that crop choices are adapting to local trends in two separate climate variables in some regions of the USA. But evidence suggests that cover cropping may be adapting more to the economic environment than climatic conditions. Further research is needed to characterize the process of cultural adaptation, particularly the routes and mechanisms of cultural transmission. Furthermore, climate adaptation policy could benefit from research on factors that differentiate regions exhibiting adaptive trends in crop choice from those that do not. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Sampling for malaria molecular surveillance

Strategic use of Plasmodium falciparum genetic variation has great potential to inform public health actions for malaria control and elimination. Malaria molecular surveillance (MMS) begins with a strategy to identify and collect parasite samples, guided by public-health priorities. In this review we discuss sampling design practices for MMS and point out epidemiological, biological, and statistical factors that need to be considered. We present examples for different use cases, including detecting emergence and spread of rare variants, establishing transmission sources and inferring changes in malaria transmission intensity. This review will potentially guide the collection of samples and data, serve as a starting point for further methodological innovation, and enhance utilization of MMS to support malaria elimination.

Marginal risk of domestic vector-borne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission after improved vector control of Triatoma infestans across a rural-to-urban gradient in the Argentine Chaco

The interruption of domestic vector-borne transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the Americas remains one of the main goals of the World Health Organization 2021-2030 road map for neglected tropical diseases. We implemented a longitudinal intervention program over 2015-2022 to suppress (peri)domestic Triatoma infestans in the municipality of Avia Terai, Chaco Province, Argentina and found that house infestation (3851 houses inspected) and triatomine abundance decreased over the first 2 years post-intervention (YPI), and remained stable thereafter associated to moderate pyrethroid resistant foci. Here we assessed selected components of transmission risk after interventions across the rural-to-urban gradient. We used multistage random sampling to select a municipality-wide sample of T. infestans. We examined 356 insects collected in 87 houses for T. cruzi infection using kDNA-PCR and identified their bloodmeal sources using an indirect ELISA. The overall prevalence of T. cruzi infection post-intervention was 1.7% (95% CI 0.7-3.6). Few houses (5.7%) (95% CI 2.5-12.8) harbored infected triatomines across the gradient. Infected triatomines were found in 5 peri-urban or rural dwellings over 1-4 years post-intervention. No infected insect was found in the urban area. The human blood index decreased from 66.2 at baseline to 42.8 at 1YPI and then increased to 92.9 at 4-5 YPI in the few infested domiciles detected. The percentage of houses with human-fed bugs displayed a similar temporal trend. Our results indicate marginal risks of domestic vector-borne transmission across the district after implementation of the intervention program. Ensuring sustainable vector surveillance coupled with human etiological diagnosis and treatment in hiperendemic areas like the Gran Chaco region, is urgently needed. 252 words.

Effect of B-NIPOx in Experimental Trypanosoma cruzi Infection in Mice

Chagas disease is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi and represents a major public health problem, which is endemic in Latin America and emerging in the rest of the world. The two drugs that are currently available for its treatment, Benznidazole and Nifurtimox, are partially effective in the chronic phase of the disease. In this study, we designed and synthesized the benzyl ester of N-isopropyl oxamic acid (B-NIPOx), which is a non-polar molecule that crosses cell membranes. B-NIPOx is cleaved inside the parasite by carboxylesterases, releasing benzyl alcohol (a molecule with antimicrobial activity), and NIPOx, which is an inhibitor of α-hydroxy acid dehydrogenase isozyme II (HADH-II), a key enzyme in T. cruzi metabolism. We evaluated B-NIPOx cytotoxicity, its toxicity in mice, and its inhibitory activity on purified HADH-II and on T. cruzi homogenates. We then evaluated the trypanocidal activity of B-NIPOx in vitro and in vivo and its effect in the intestine of T. cruzi-infected mice. We found that B-NIPOx had higher trypanocidal activity on epimastigotes and trypomastigotes than Benznidazole and Nifurtimox, that it was more effective to reduce blood parasitemia and amastigote nests in infected mice, and that, in contrast to the reference drugs, it prevented the development of Chagasic enteropathy.

Sustainable, integrated control of native vectors: The case of Chagas disease in Central America

Despite successes in reducing transmission, Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis) remains the greatest economic burden of any parasitic disease in Latin America afflicting mostly the poor and further contributing to poverty. We review a long-term (2001-2022), integrated Ecohealth approach that addresses sustainable development goals to reduce risk of Chagas transmission by the main native vector in Central America, Triatoma dimidiata, s.l. The basis of the Ecohealth intervention was the identification of the risk factors for house infestation, an understanding of and collaboration with local communities, and genetic and proteomic studies that revealed the epidemiology and mechanisms of the rapid reinfestation seen following insecticide application. We review the development of this approach from a pilot project in two Guatemalan villages, to an expanded initiative across three countries with vastly different ecology, cultures, and municipal organization, and finally development of a multi-institutional, large-scale project to develop a strategy to tackle the remaining hot spots in Central America. This integrated Ecohealth approach resulted in reduced risk of transmission as measured by a sustained decrease in house infestation without further use of insecticides, a reduction in vectors with human blood meals and the Chagas parasite, as well as other health and economic benefits. We discuss lessons learned and how this approach could be applied to other vector-borne diseases.