The role of demography and markets in determining deforestation rates near Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar

Urban Growth Modeling and Future Scenario Projection Using Cellular Automata (CA) Models and the R Package Optimx

Cellular automata (CA) is a spatially explicit modeling tool that has been shown to be effective in simulating urban growth dynamics and in projecting future scenarios across scales. At the core of urban CA models are transition rules that define land transformation from non-urban to urban. Our objective is to compare the urban growth simulation and prediction abilities of different metaheuristics included in the R package optimx. We applied five metaheuristics in optimx to near-optimally parameterize CA transition rules and construct CA models for urban simulation. One advantage of metaheuristics is their ability to optimize complexly constrained computational problems, yielding objective parameterization with strong predictive power. From these five models, we selected conjugate gradient-based CA (CG-CA) and spectral projected gradient-based CA (SPG-CA) to simulate the 2005–2015 urban growth and to project future scenarios to 2035 with four strategies for Su-Xi-Chang Agglomeration in China. The two CA models produced about 86% overall accuracy with standard Kappa coefficient above 69%, indicating their good ability to capture urban growth dynamics. Four alternative scenarios out to the year 2035 were constructed considering the overall effect of all candidate influencing factors and the enhanced effects of county centers, road networks and population density. These scenarios can provide insight into future urban patterns resulting from today’s urban planning and infrastructure, and can inform future development strategies for sustainable cities. Our proposed metaheuristic CA models are also applicable in modeling land-use and urban growth in other rapidly developing areas.

Small-scale land-use variability affects Anopheles spp. distribution and concomitant Plasmodium infection in humans and mosquito vectors in southeastern Madagascar

Background

Deforestation and land-use change have the potential to alter human exposure to malaria. A large percentage of Madagascar’s original forest cover has been lost to slash-and-burn agriculture, and malaria is one of the top causes of mortality on the island. In this study, the influence of land-use on the distribution of Plasmodium vectors and concomitant Plasmodium infection in humans and mosquito vectors was examined in the southeastern rainforests of Madagascar.

Methods

From June to August 2013, health assessments were conducted on individuals living in sixty randomly selected households in six villages bordering Ranomafana National Park. Humans were screened for malaria using species-specific rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and surveyed about insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) usage. Concurrently, mosquitoes were captured in villages and associated forest and agricultural sites. All captured female Anopheline mosquitoes were screened for Plasmodium spp. using a circumsporozoite enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (csELISA).

Results

Anopheles spp. dominated the mosquito communities of agricultural and village land-use sites, accounting for 41.4 and 31.4 % of mosquitoes captured respectively, whereas Anopheles spp. accounted for only 1.6 % of mosquitoes captured from forest sites. Interestingly, most Anopheles spp. (67.7 %) were captured in agricultural sites in close proximity to animal pens, and 90.8 % of Anopheles mosquitoes captured in agricultural sites were known vectors of malaria. Three Anopheline mosquitoes (0.7 %) were positive for malaria (Plasmodium vivax-210) and all positive mosquitoes were collected from agricultural or village land-use sites. Ten humans (3.7 %) tested were positive for P. falciparum, and 23.3 % of those surveyed reported never sleeping under ITNs.

Conclusions

This study presents the first report of malaria surveillance in humans and the environment in southeastern Madagascar. These findings suggest that even during the winter, malaria species are present in both humans and mosquitoes; with P. falciparum found in humans, and evidence of P. vivax-210 in mosquito vectors. The presence of P. vivax in resident vectors, but not humans may relate to the high incidence of humans lacking the Duffy protein. The majority of mosquito vectors were found in agricultural land-use sites, in particular near livestock pens. These findings have the potential to inform and improve targeted malaria control and prevention strategies in the region.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1164-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing natural resource use by forest-reliant communities in Madagascar using functional diversity and functional redundancy metrics

Biodiversity plays an integral role in the livelihoods of subsistence-based forest-dwelling communities and as a consequence it is increasingly important to develop quantitative approaches that capture not only changes in taxonomic diversity, but also variation in natural resources and provisioning services. We apply a functional diversity metric originally developed for addressing questions in community ecology to assess utilitarian diversity of 56 forest plots in Madagascar. The use categories for utilitarian plants were determined using expert knowledge and household questionnaires. We used a null model approach to examine the utilitarian (functional) diversity and utilitarian redundancy present within ecological communities. Additionally, variables that might influence fluctuations in utilitarian diversity and redundancy--specifically number of felled trees, number of trails, basal area, canopy height, elevation, distance from village--were analyzed using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). Eighteen of the 56 plots showed utilitarian diversity values significantly higher than expected. This result indicates that these habitats exhibited a low degree of utilitarian redundancy and were therefore comprised of plants with relatively distinct utilitarian properties. One implication of this finding is that minor losses in species richness may result in reductions in utilitarian diversity and redundancy, which may limit local residents' ability to switch between alternative choices. The GLM analysis showed that the most predictive model included basal area, canopy height and distance from village, which suggests that variation in utilitarian redundancy may be a result of local residents harvesting resources from the protected area. Our approach permits an assessment of the diversity of provisioning services available to local communities, offering unique insights that would not be possible using traditional taxonomic diversity measures. These analyses introduce another tool available to conservation biologists for assessing how future losses in biodiversity will lead to a reduction in natural resources and provisioning services from forests.