The spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in Madagascar described by a sentinel surveillance network

African countries from the Pasteur Network reexamine their syndromic sentinel surveillance system associated with household contact within the AFROSCREEN program

Surveillance to better detect and respond to new pathogens remains a major challenge for global public health. The Pasteur Network recently held a brainstorming workshop located in Cameroon attended by Pasteur epidemiological teams from Niger, Central African Republic (CAR), Cameroon, Senegal, and Madagascar to discuss how the Pasteur Network in Africa could use the lessons of COVID-19 to set-up a pilot sentinel surveillance scheme given its expertise and involvement during the pandemic. The possibility of coupling sentinel syndromic and biological surveillance already implemented for influenza surveillance with the recent sequencing capacity put in place by the AFROSCREEN program prompted us to consider strengthening surveillance tools to target "Pathogen X" detection in Africa. The perspective project provided by the Pasteur Network teams and shared with other partners of the AFROSCREEN program will target strengthening of the diagnosis of severe acute respiratory infections (IRAS) and the surveillance of IRAS, the evaluation of the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the epidemiology of IRAS, and the addition of the detection of new pathogens, called "Pathogen X," based on sequencing capacity and epidemiological criteria from One Health approaches.

The COVID-19 epidemic in Madagascar: clinical description and laboratory results of the first wave, march-september 2020

BACKGROUND

Following the first detection of SARS-CoV-2 in passengers arriving from Europe on 19 March 2020, Madagascar took several mitigation measures to limit the spread of the virus in the country.

METHODS

Nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs were collected from travellers to Madagascar, suspected SARS-CoV-2 cases and contact of confirmed cases. Swabs were tested at the national reference laboratory using real-time RT-PCR. Data collected from patients were entered in an electronic database for subsequent statistical analysis. All distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases were mapped, and six genomes of viruses were fully sequenced.

RESULTS

Overall, 26,415 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 18 March and 18 September 2020, of whom 21.0% (5,553/26,145) returned positive. Among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, the median age was 39 years (IQR: 28-52), and 56.6% (3,311/5,553) were asymptomatic at the time of sampling. The probability of testing positive increased with age with the highest adjusted odds ratio of 2.2 [95% CI: 1.9-2.5] for individuals aged 49 years and more. Viral strains sequenced belong to clades 19A, 20A and 20B indicative of several independent introduction of viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study describes the first wave of the COVID-19 in Madagascar. Despite early strategies in place Madagascar could not avoid the introduction and spread of the virus. More studies are needed to estimate the true burden of disease and make public health recommendations for a better preparation to another wave.

The epidemiology of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic in Africa: a systematic review

Background

Influenza infection is a serious public health problem that causes an estimated 3 to 5 million cases and 250,000 deaths worldwide every year. The epidemiology of influenza is well-documented in high- and middle-income countries, however minimal effort had been made to understand the epidemiology, burden and seasonality of influenza in Africa. This study aims to assess the state of knowledge of seasonal influenza epidemiology in Africa and identify potential data gaps for policy formulation following the 2009 pandemic.

Method

We reviewed articles from Africa published into four databases namely: MEDLINE (PubMed), Google Scholar, Cochrane Library and Scientific Research Publishing from 2010 to 2019.

Results

We screened titles and abstracts of 2070 studies of which 311 were selected for full content evaluation and 199 studies were considered. Selected articles varied substantially on the basis of the topics they addressed covering the field of influenza surveillance (n=80); influenza risk factors and co-morbidities (n=15); influenza burden (n=37); influenza vaccination (n=40); influenza and other respiratory pathogens (n=22) and influenza diagnosis (n=5).

Conclusion

Significant progress has been made since the last pandemic in understanding the influenza epidemiology in Africa. However, efforts still remain for most countries to have sufficient data to allow countries to prioritize strategies for influenza prevention and control.

Evaluation of the influenza sentinel surveillance system in Madagascar, 2009-2014

Problem

Evaluation of influenza surveillance systems is poor, especially in Africa.

Approach

In 2007, the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar and the Malagasy Ministry of Public Health implemented a countrywide system for the prospective syndromic and virological surveillance of influenza-like illnesses. In assessing this system’s performance, we identified gaps and ways to promote the best use of resources. We investigated acceptability, data quality, flexibility, representativeness, simplicity, stability, timeliness and usefulness and developed qualitative and/or quantitative indicators for each of these attributes.

Local setting

Until 2007, the influenza surveillance system in Madagascar was only operational in Antananarivo and the observations made could not be extrapolated to the entire country.

Relevant changes

By 2014, the system covered 34 sentinel sites across the country. At 12 sites, nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal samples were collected and tested for influenza virus. Between 2009 and 2014, 177 718 fever cases were detected, 25 809 (14.5%) of these fever cases were classified as cases of influenza-like illness. Of the 9192 samples from patients with influenza-like illness that were tested for influenza viruses, 3573 (38.9%) tested positive. Data quality for all evaluated indicators was categorized as above 90% and the system also appeared to be strong in terms of its acceptability, simplicity and stability. However, sample collection needed improvement.

Lessons learnt

The influenza surveillance system in Madagascar performed well and provided reliable and timely data for public health interventions. Given its flexibility and overall moderate cost, this system may become a useful platform for syndromic and laboratory-based surveillance in other low-resource settings.

Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner

BACKGROUND

The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar.

METHODS

We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period.

RESULTS

Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak.

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally.

Early-warning health and process indicators for sentinel surveillance in Madagascar 2007-2011

BACKGROUND

Epidemics pose major threats in resource-poor countries, and surveillance tools for their early detection and response are often inadequate. In 2007, a sentinel surveillance system was established in Madagascar, with the aim of rapidly identifying potential epidemics of febrile or diarrhoeal syndromes and issuing alerts. We present the health and process indicators for the five years during which this system was constructed, showing the spatiotemporal trends, early-warning sign detection capability and process evaluation through timely analyses of high-quality data.

METHODS

The Malagasy sentinel surveillance network is currently based on data for fever and diarrhoeal syndromes collected from 34 primary health centres and reported daily via the transmission of short messages from mobile telephones. Data are analysed daily at the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar to make it possible to issue alerts more rapidly, and integrated process indicators (timeliness, data quality) are used to monitor the system.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2011, 917,798 visits were reported. Febrile syndromes accounted for about 11% of visits annually, but the trends observed differed between years and sentinel sites. From 2007 to 2011, 21 epidemic alerts were confirmed. However, delays in data transmission were observed (88% transmitted within 24 hours in 2008; 67% in 2011) and the percentage of forms transmitted each week for validity control decreased from 99.9% in 2007 to 63.5% in 2011.

CONCLUSION

A sentinel surveillance scheme should take into account both epidemiological and process indicators. It must also be governed by the main purpose of the surveillance and by local factors, such as the motivation of healthcare workers and telecommunication infrastructure. Permanent evaluation indicators are required for regular improvement of the system.

Viral pneumonia in adults and older children in sub-Saharan Africa - epidemiology, aetiology, diagnosis and management

Community-acquired pneumonia causes substantial morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa with an estimated 131 million new cases each year. Viruses — such as influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus and parainfluenza virus — are now recognised as important causes of respiratory disease in older children and adults in the developed world following the emergence of sensitive molecular diagnostic tests, recent severe viral epidemics, and the discovery of novel viruses. Few studies have comprehensively evaluated the viral aetiology of adult pneumonia in Africa, but it is likely to differ from Western settings due to varying seasonality and the high proportion of patients with immunosuppression and co-morbidities. Emerging data suggest a high prevalence of viral pathogens, as well as multiple viral and viral/bacterial infections in African adults with pneumonia. However, the interpretation of positive results from highly sensitive polymerase chain reaction tests can be challenging. Therapeutic and preventative options against viral respiratory infections are currently limited in the African setting. This review summarises the current state of the epidemiology, aetiology, diagnosis and management of viral pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa.

Prediction of clinical factors associated with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Pakistan

Background

Influenza is a viral infection that can lead to serious complications and death(s) in vulnerable groups if not diagnosed and managed in a timely manner. This study was conducted to improve the accuracy of predicting influenza through various clinical and statistical models.

Methodology

A retrospective cross sectional analysis was done on demographic and epidemiological data collected from March 2009 to March 2010. Patients were classified as ILI or SARI using WHO case definitions. Respiratory specimens were tested by RT-PCR. Clinical symptoms and co-morbid conditions were analyzed using binary logistic regression models.

Results

In the first approach, analysis compared children (≤12) and adults (>12). Of 1,243 cases, 262 (21%) tested positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 and the proportion of children (≤12) and adults (>12) were 27% and 73% respectively. Four symptoms predicted influenza in children: fever (OR 2.849, 95% CI 1.931–8.722), cough (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.512–3.643), diarrhea (OR 2.100, 95% CI 2.040–3.25) and respiratory disease (OR 3.269, 95% CI 2.128–12.624). In adults, the strongest clinical predictor was fever (OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.025–3.135) followed by cough (OR 1.431, 95% CI 1.032–2.815). In the second instance, patients were separated into two groups: SARI 326 (26%) and ILI 917 (74%) cases. Male to female ratio was 1.41∶1.12 for SARI and 2∶1.5 for ILI cases. Chi-square test showed that fever, cough and sore throat were significant factors for A(H1N1)pdm09 infections (p = 0.008).

Conclusion

Studies in a primary care setting should be encouraged focused on patients with influenza-like illness to develop sensitive clinical case definition that will help to improve accuracy of detecting influenza infections. Formulation of a standard “one size fits all” case definition that best correlates with influenza infections can help guide decisions for additional diagnostic testing and also discourage unjustified antibiotic prescription and usage in clinical practice.

Incidence and characteristics of the 2009 influenza (H1N1) infections in inflammatory bowel disease patients

BACKGROUND

In 2009, influenza A (H1N1) infections spread worldwide. Because the use of immunomodulators is associated with an increased risk of infection, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients who are on immunomodulators might be concerned about H1N1 influenza infections. The aim of this study was to investigate the age distribution and risk factors associated with H1N1 influenza of IBD patients in 2009-2010.

METHODS

A multicenter, prospective study was conducted, and 570 IBD patients were enrolled. Patients were followed up for 10 months to identify any new infections. The incidence and age distribution of the H1N1 influenza infections were analyzed. IBD patients with H1N1 influenza infections and 2 matched, noninfected IBD patients were selected to assess the effect of specifying the medication on the incidence of infections.

RESULTS

A total of 38 patients (6.7%) developed H1N1 influenza infections. The incidence of H1N1 influenza infections in patients aged less than 20 years was significantly higher than that among patients in other age groups (p<0.01). The age distribution for H1N1 influenza infections in IBD patients was comparable to those in the general population. No patients needed hospitalization due to influenza infection. A total of 29 patients (76%) recovered from the H1N1 influenza symptoms within 7 days and 20 patients (53%) received antiviral treatment. The percentage of patients who used steroids or thiopurine was comparable between the cases of H1N1 influenza infection and the control group.

CONCLUSION

Our prospective study showed that younger IBD patients were frequently infected with the influenza A (H1N1) virus as well as general population. Admission and fatal cases due to H1N1 influenza infections were not observed.