Retention in care and outpatient costs for children receiving antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: a retrospective cohort analysis

The Positive Impact of Foods Support on Loss to Follow Up Among Children and Adolescents on HIV Antiretroviral Therapy in a District Hospital in East Cameroon

Introduction

The pediatric HIV treatment coverage in Cameroon remains low at 35%. The high loss to follow up (LTFU) remains a major factor to this dismal performance which is related to the lack of implementation of effective interventions to improve retention in care. This study assessed the impact of foods support (FS) on LTFU among children and adolescents in a rural district hospital in eastern Cameroon.

Methods

This was a retro-prospective study conducted in Abong Mbang District Hospital (ADH) in the East Region of Cameroon. We provided foods kits to children and adolescents initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in this facility during the study and followed them up prospectively (prospective phase). On the other hand, using medical records, we collected retrospectively data for children and adolescents who enrolled on ART in the hospital prior to the study (retrospective phase). We then compared the proportions of children and adolescents LTFU before (no FS) and after (with FS) the study, using the Fisher's exact test, logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional-hazards model at 5% significant level.

Results

We found that with FS, the proportion of children and adolescents LTFU was 11 times lower (2.4% vs 26.7%, p=0.014), the mean time of retention in care was 30% higher (17 months vs 12 months, p<0.001) and children and adolescents who did not receive FS were 10 times more likely to be LTFU [aHR=10.3 (4.0-26.2), p<0.001)].

Conclusion

Foods support is an effective intervention in reducing LTFU among children and adolescents on ART. This intervention should be adequately funded to enable a large-scale implementation in the field. This could help to improve the outcome of pediatric ART coverage in resource-limited settings.

Multimonth dispensing of up to 6 months of antiretroviral therapy in Malawi and Zambia (INTERVAL): a cluster-randomised, non-blinded, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Facility-based, multimonth dispensing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV could reduce burdens on patients and providers and improve retention in care. We assessed whether 6-monthly ART dispensing was non-inferior to standard of care and 3-monthly ART dispensing.

METHODS

We did a pragmatic, cluster-randomised, unblinded, non-inferiority trial (INTERVAL) at 30 health facilities in Malawi and Zambia. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older, HIV-positive, and were clinically stable on ART. Before randomisation, health facilities (clusters) were matched on the basis of country, ART cohort size, facility type (ie, hospital vs health centre), and region or province. Matched clusters were randomly allocated (1:1:1) to standard of care, 3-monthly ART dispensing, or 6-monthly ART dispensing using a simple random allocation sequence. The primary outcome was retention in care at 12 months, defined as the proportion of patients with less than 60 consecutive days without ART during study follow-up, analysed by intention to treat. A 2·5% margin was used to assess non-inferiority. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03101592.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2017, and April 30, 2018, 9118 participants were randomly assigned, of whom 8719 participants (n=3012, standard of care group; n=2726, 3-monthly ART dispensing group; n=2981, 6-monthly ART dispensing group) had primary outcome data available at 12 months and were included in the primary analysis. The median age of participants was 42·7 years (IQR 36·1-49·9) and 5774 (66·2%) of 8719 were women. The primary outcome was met by 2478 (82·3%) of 3012 participants in the standard of care group, 2356 (86·4%) of 2726 participants in the 3-monthly ART dispensing group, and 2729 (91·5%) of 2981 participants in the 6-monthly ART dispensing group. After adjusting for clustering, for retention in care at 12 months, the 6-monthly ART dispensing group was non-inferior to the standard of care group (percentage-point increase 9·1 [95% CI 0·9-17·2]) and to the 3-monthly ART dispensing group (5·0% [1·0-9·1]).

INTERPRETATION

Clinical visits with ART dispensing every 6 months was non-inferior to standard of care and 3-monthly ART dispensing. 6-monthly ART dispensing is a promising strategy for the expansion of ART provision and achievement of HIV treatment targets in resource-constrained settings.

FUNDING

US Agency for International Development.

Fast-track treatment initiation counselling in South Africa: A cost-outcomes analysis

Introduction

In 2016, under its new National Adherence Guidelines (AGL), South Africa formalized an existing model of fast-track HIV treatment initiation counselling (FTIC). Rollout of the AGL included an evaluation study at 24 clinics, with staggered AGL implementation. Using routinely collected data extracted as part of the evaluation study, we estimated and compared the costs of HIV care and treatment from the provider’s perspective at the 12 clinics implementing the new, formalized model (AGL-FTIC) to costs at the 12 clinics continuing to implement some earlier, less formalized, model that likely varied across clinics (denoted here as early-FTIC).

Methods

This was a cost-outcome analysis using standard methods and a composite outcome defined as initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 30 days of treatment eligibility and retained in care at 9 months. Using patient-level, bottom-up resource-utilization data and local unit costs, we estimated patient-level costs of care and treatment in 2017 U.S. dollars over the 9-month evaluation follow-up period for the two models of care. Resource use and costs, disaggregated by antiretroviral medications, laboratory tests, and clinic visits, are reported by model of care and stratified by the composite outcome.

Results

A total of 350/343 patients in the early-FTIC/AGL-FTIC models of care are included in this analysis. Mean/median costs were similar for both models of care ($135/$153 for early-FTIC, $130/$151 for AGL-FTIC). For the subset achieving the composite outcome, resource use and therefore mean/median costs were similar but slightly higher, reflecting care consistent with treatment guidelines ($163/$166 for early-FTIC, $168/$170 for AGL-FTIC). Not surprisingly, costs for patients not achieving the composite outcome were substantially less, mainly because they only had two or fewer follow-up visits and, therefore, received substantially less ART than patients who achieved the composite outcome.

Conclusion

The 2016 adherence guidelines clarified expectations for the content and timing of adherence counseling sessions in relation to ART initiation. Because clinics were already initiating patients on ART quickly by 2016, little room existed for the new model of fast-track initiation counseling to reduce the number of pre-ART clinic visits at the study sites and therefore to reduce costs of care and treatment.

Trial registration

Clinical Trial Number: NCT02536768.

Will differentiated care for stable HIV patients reduce healthcare systems costs?

INTRODUCTION

South Africa's National Department of Health launched the National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases in 2015. These guidelines include adherence clubs (AC) and decentralized medication delivery (DMD) as two differentiated models of care for stable HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. While the adherence guidelines do not suggest that provider costs (costs to the healthcare system for medications, laboratory tests and visits to clinics or alternative locations) for stable patients in these differentiated models of care will be lower than conventional, clinic-based care, recent modelling exercises suggest that such differentiated models could substantially reduce provider costs. In the context of continued implementation of the guidelines, we discuss the conditions under which provider costs of care for stable HIV patients could fall, or rise, with AC and DMD models of care in South Africa.

DISCUSSION

In prior studies of HIV care and treatment costs, three main cost categories are antiretroviral medications, laboratory tests and general interaction costs based on encounters with health workers. Stable patients are likely to be on the national first-line regimen (Tenofovir/Entricitabine/Efavarinz (TDF/FTC/EFV)), so no difference in the costs of medications is expected. Laboratory testing guidelines for stable patients are the same regardless of the model of care, so no difference in laboratory costs is expected as well. Based on existing information regarding the costs of clinic visits, AC visits and DMD drug pickups, we expect that for some clinics, visit costs for DMD or AC models of care could be less, but modestly so, than for conventional, clinic-based care. For other clinics, however, DMD or AC models could have higher visit costs (see Table 2).

CONCLUSIONS

The standard of care for stable patients has already been "differentiated" for years in South Africa, prior to the roll out of the new adherence guidelines. AC and DMD models of care, when implemented as envisioned in the guidelines, are unlikely to generate substantive reductions or increases in provider costs of care.

A tool for estimating antiretroviral medication coverage for HIV-infected women during pregnancy (PMTCT-ACT)

Background

In the typical prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV cascade of care discussion or analysis, the period of analysis begins at the first visit for antenatal care (ANC) for that pregnancy. This starting point is problematic for two reasons: (1) a large number of HIV-infected women are already on life-long antiretroviral therapy (ART) when presenting for ANC; and (2) women present to ANC at different gestational ages. The PMTCT ART Coverage Tool (PMTCT-ACT), which estimates the proportion of days covered (PDC) with ART, was developed to address each of these problems.

Methods

PDC is a preferred method to measure adherence to chronic medications, such as ART. For evaluating the PMTCT cascade of care, as indicated by PDC with ART over various time periods, a “starting point” based on a specific day before delivery must be defined that applies to all women (treatment experienced or naïve at the first ANC visit at any gestational age). Using the example of 168 days prior to delivery (24 weeks), PMTCT-ACT measures PDC with ART during that period. PMTCT-ACT is provided as a STATA do-file. Using an example dataset for two women (ID1 is treatment experienced; ID2 is treatment naïve), the details of each major portion of the tool (Parts 1–5) are presented. PMTCT-ACT along with the intermediate datasets created during the analysis are provided as supplemental files.

Conclusions

Evaluating the PMTCT cascade of care requires a standard definition of the follow-up period during pregnancy that applies to all HIV-infected pregnant women and a standard measure of adherence. PMTCT-ACT is a new tool that fits this purpose. PMTCT-ACT can also be easily adjusted to evaluate other ante- and post-natal periods (e.g., final 4 weeks, final 8 weeks, complete pregnancy period, initial 24 weeks postpartum, time periods consistent with infant HIV testing guidelines).

Incremental treatment costs for HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy: A 24-month micro-costing cohort study for a maternal and child health clinic in Kenya

BACKGROUND

To date, little information exists on the costs of providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) within maternal and child health (MCH) clinics in Kenya. The main objective of this analysis was to estimate the annual incremental cost of providing ART within a MCH clinic for adult women initiated on ART during pregnancy over the first one and two years on treatment. The study site was the District Hospital in Kericho, Kenya.

METHODS

A micro-costing approach from the provider's perspective, based on a retrospective review of patient medical records, was used to evaluate incremental costs of care (2012 USD). Cost per patient in two cohorts were evaluated: the MCH clinic group comprised of adult women who initiated ART at the site's MCH clinic during pregnancy between 2008-2011; and for comparison, the ART clinic group comprised of adult, non-pregnant women who initiated ART at the site's ART clinic during 2008-2011. The two groups were matched on age and baseline CD4 count at initiation. Retention at year one/two on ART was defined as having completed a clinic visit at 365/730 days on ART +/- 90 days.

RESULTS

For patients defined as retained in care at year one, average incremental costs per patient were $234 for the MCH clinic group (median: 215; IQR: 186, 282) and $292 in the ART clinic group (median: 227; IQR: 178, 357). ARV and laboratory costs were less on average for the MCH clinic group compared to the ART clinic group (due to lower cost regimens and fewer tests), while personnel costs were higher for the MCH clinic group.

CONCLUSIONS

The annual incremental cost per patient of providing ART were similar in the two clinic settings in 2012. With shifts in recommended ARV regimens and lab monitoring over time, annual costs of care (using 2016 USD unit costs) have remained relatively constant in nominal terms for the MCH clinic group but have fallen substantially for the ART clinic group (from nominal $292 in 2012 to nominal $227 in 2016).

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 3- vs. 6-monthly dispensing of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for stable HIV patients in community ART-refill groups in Zimbabwe: study protocol for a pragmatic, cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa is the world region with the greatest number of people eligible to receive antiretroviral treatment (ART). Less frequent dispensing of ART and community-based ART-delivery models are potential strategies to reduce the load on overburdened healthcare facilities and reduce the barriers for patients to access treatment. However, no large-scale trials have been conducted investigating patient outcomes or evaluating the cost-effectiveness of extended ART-dispensing intervals within community ART-delivery models. This trial will assess the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of providing ART refills on a 3 vs. a 6-monthly basis within community ART-refill groups (CARGs) for stable patients in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

In this pragmatic, three-arm, parallel, unblinded, cluster-randomized non-inferiority trial, 30 clusters (healthcare facilities and associated CARGs) are allocated using stratified randomization in a 1:1:1 ratio to either (1) ART refills supplied 3-monthly from the health facility (control arm), (2) ART refills supplied 3-monthly within CARGs, or (3) ART refills supplied 6-monthly within CARGs. A CARG consists of 6-12 stable patients who meet in the community to receive ART refills and who provide support to one another. Stable adult ART patients with a baseline viral load < 1000 copies/ml will be invited to participate (1920 participants per arm). The primary outcome is the proportion of participants alive and retained in care 12 months after enrollment. Secondary outcomes (measured at 12 and 24 months) are the proportions achieving virological suppression, average provider cost per participant, provider cost per participant retained, cost per participant retained with virological suppression, and average patient-level costs to access treatment. Qualitative research will assess the acceptability of extended ART-dispensing intervals within CARGs to both providers and patients, and indicators of potential facility-level decongestion due to the interventions will be assessed.

DISCUSSION

Cost-effective health system models that sustain high levels of patient retention are urgently needed to accommodate the large numbers of stable ART patients in sub-Saharan Africa. This will be the first trial to evaluate extended ART-dispensing intervals within a community-based ART distribution model, and results are intended to inform national and regional policy regarding their potential benefits to both the healthcare system and patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03238846 . Registered on 27 July 2017.

Varying intervals of antiretroviral medication dispensing to improve outcomes for HIV patients (The INTERVAL Study): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Requirements for frequent dispensing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) place demands on health systems and can lead to suboptimal adherence and disengagement in care for patients due to the time and cost of frequent clinic visits. Rigorous data are needed to define optimal ART dispensing strategies and to evaluate the impact of a longer medication supply on retention and virologic suppression and determine whether this strategy lowers costs for both the patient and the health system. To date, no randomized studies have tested the benefits of 6-month dispensing of ART compared to 3-month and standard of care approaches.

METHODS

This study will be an unblinded cluster-randomized, matched controlled trial conducted among 8200 stable, HIV-infected individuals age 18 years and older on ART in Malawi and Zambia, to compare three ART dispensing intervals on the outcomes of retention in care (primary outcome), virologic suppression, and cost-effectiveness. Thirty clusters will be matched according to country, facility type, and ART cohort size and randomized to one of three study arms: standard of care, 3-month dispensing, and 6-month dispensing. Study participants will be followed, and outcomes will be measured at 12, 24, and 36 months. A subset of participants (n = 240) and providers (n = 180) will also participate in qualitative interviews to evaluate feasibility and acceptability of different ART dispensing intervals.

DISCUSSION

This study will be the first to compare 6-month and 3-month ART dispensing intervals for stable, HIV-infected individuals in Malawi and Zambia. We focus on outcomes relevant to country programs, including retention, virologic suppression, and cost-effectiveness. Results from the study will help resource-limited health systems better understand the full scope of outcomes resulting from various ART dispensing intervals and help to inform health policy decisions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03101592 . Registered on 18 March 2017. Pan African Clinical Trials, PACTR201706002336105 . Registered on 2 June 2017.

Underutilisation of routinely collected data in the HIV programme in Zambia: a review of quantitatively analysed peer-reviewed articles

Background

The extent to which routinely collected HIV data from Zambia has been used in peer-reviewed published articles remains unexplored. This paper is an analysis of peer-reviewed articles that utilised routinely collected HIV data from Zambia within six programme areas from 2004 to 2014.

Methods

Articles on HIV, published in English, listed in the Directory of open access journals, African Journals Online, Google scholar, and PubMed were reviewed. Only articles from peer-reviewed journals, that utilised routinely collected data and included quantitative data analysis methods were included. Multi-country studies involving Zambia and another country, where the specific results for Zambia were not reported, as well as clinical trials and intervention studies that did not take place under routine care conditions were excluded, although community trials which referred patients to the routine clinics were included. Independent extraction was conducted using a predesigned data collection form. Pooled analysis was not possible due to diversity in topics reviewed.

Results

A total of 69 articles were extracted for review. Of these, 7 were excluded. From the 62 articles reviewed, 39 focused on HIV treatment and retention in care, 15 addressed prevention of mother-to-child transmission, 4 assessed social behavioural change, and 4 reported on voluntary counselling and testing. In our search, no articles were found on condom programming or voluntary male medical circumcision. The most common outcome measures reported were CD4+ count, clinical failure or mortality. The population analysed was children in 13 articles, women in 16 articles, and both adult men and women in 33 articles.

Conclusion

During the 10 year period of review, only 62 articles were published analysing routinely collected HIV data in Zambia. Serious consideration needs to be made to maximise the utility of routinely collected data, and to benefit from the funds and efforts to collect these data. This could be achieved with government support of operational research and publication of findings based on routinely collected Zambian HIV data.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the national decentralization policy of antiretroviral treatment programme in Zambia

Background

In resource-limited settings with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection such as Zambia, decentralization of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) treatment and care with effective use of resources is a cornerstone of universal treatment and care.

Objectives

This research aims to analyse the cost effectiveness of the National Mobile Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Services Programme in Zambia as a means of decentralizing ART services.

Methods

Cost-effectiveness analyses were performed using a decision analytic model and Markov model to compare the original ART programme, ‘Hospital-based ART’, with the intervention programme, Hospital-based plus ‘Mobile ART’, from the perspective of the district government health office in Zambia. The total cost of ART services, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were examined.

Results

The mean annual per-patient costs were 1259.16 USD for the original programme and 2601.02 USD for the intervention programme, while the mean number of QALYs was 6.81 for the original and 7.27 for the intervention programme. The ICER of the intervention programme relative to the original programme was 2965.17 USD/QALY, which was much below the willingness-to-pay (WTP), or three times the GDP per capita (4224 USD), but still over the GDP per capita (1408 USD). In the sensitivity analysis, the ICER of the intervention programme did not substantially change.

Conclusion

The National Mobile ART Services Programme in Zambia could be a cost-effective approach to decentralizing ART services into rural areas in Zambia. This programme could be expanded to more districts where it has not yet been introduced to improve access to ART services and the health of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in rural areas.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12962-017-0065-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A framework for evaluating the costs of malaria elimination interventions: an application to reactive case detection in Southern Province of Zambia, 2014

Background

This paper summarizes a framework for evaluating the costs of malaria elimination interventions and applies this approach to one key component of the elimination strategy—reactive case detection (RCD)—implemented through 173 health facilities across 10 districts in Southern Province of Zambia during 2014.

Methods

The primary unit of analysis is the health facility catchment area (HFCA). A five-step approach was followed to estimate implementation costs: organize preliminary information; estimate basic unit costs; estimate activity unit costs; estimate and organize final unit cost database; and create the final costing database (one row of data per HFCA). By working through a specific application, the overall logic of the analysis and details of each step are presented. An electronic annex also provides all details of the analysis. Because population varies substantially across HFCAs, all results are reported per 1000 population in HFCAs.

Results

During 2014, 38.9 households per HFCA were visited for RCD services; 166.8 individuals were tested and 32.3 tested positive and were treated. The mean annual cost per HFCA was $1177 (median = $923, IQR $651–$1417). Variation in costs was driven by the number of CHWs and passive cases detected. CHW-related costs and data review meetings accounted for the largest share of costs. Rapid diagnostic tests and drugs accounted for less than 10 % of total costs.

Conclusions

The framework presented here follows standard methods in applied costing of public health interventions (combining ingredients- and activity-based costing approaches into one final cost analysis). Through an application to a specific programme implemented in Zambia in 2014, the details of how to apply such methods to an actual programme are presented. Such details are not typically presented in existing costing analyses but are required for applied analysts working with national malaria control programmes and other organizations to complete such analyses as part of routine programme implementation. Obtaining data and information for implementing the approach remains complicated, in part because analysts from one organization may not have easy access to information from another organization. This basic approach is transparent and easily applied to other malaria elimination interventions being implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1457-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Retention of HIV-Infected Children in the First 12 Months of Anti-Retroviral Therapy and Predictors of Attrition in Resource Limited Settings: A Systematic Review

Current UNAIDS goals aimed to end the AIDS epidemic set out to ensure that 90% of all people living with HIV know their status, 90% initiate and continue life-long anti-retroviral therapy (ART), and 90% achieve viral load suppression. In 2014 there were an estimated 2.6 million children under 15 years of age living with HIV, of which only one-third were receiving ART. Little literature exists describing retention of HIV-infected children in the first year on ART. We conducted a systematic search for English language publications reporting on retention of children with median age at ART initiation less than ten years in resource limited settings. The proportion of children retained in care on ART and predictors of attrition were identified. Twelve studies documented retention at one year ranging from 71–95% amongst 31877 African children. Among the 5558 children not retained, 4082 (73%) were reported as lost to follow up (LFU) and 1476 (27%) were confirmed to have died. No studies confirmed the outcomes of children LFU. Predictors of attrition included younger age, shorter duration of time on ART, and severe immunosuppression. In conclusion, significant attrition occurs in children in the first 12 months after ART initiation, the majority attributed to LFU, although true outcomes of children labeled as LFU are unknown. Focused efforts to ensure retention and minimize early mortality are needed as universal ART for children is scaled up.

Costing of Paediatric Treatment alongside Clinical Trials under Low Resource Constraint Environments: Cotrimoxazole and Antiretroviral Medications in Children Living with HIV/AIDS

Introduction. Costing evidence is essential for policy makers for priority setting and resource allocation. It is in this context that the clinical trials of ARVs and cotrimoxazole provided a costing component to provide evidence for budgeting and resource needs alongside the clinical efficacy studies.Methods. A micro based costing approach was adopted, using case record forms for maintaining patient records. Costs for fixed assets were allocated based on the paediatric space. Medication and other resource costs were costed using the WHO/MSH Drug Price Indicators as well as procurement data where these were available.Results. The costs for cotrimoxazole and ARVs are significantly different. The average costs for human resources were US$22 and US$71 for physician costs and $1.3 and $16 for nursing costs while in-patient costs were $257 and $15 for the cotrimoxazole and ARV cohorts, respectively. Mean or average costs were $870 for the cotrimoxazole cohort and $218 for the ARV. The causal factors for the significant cost differences are attributable to the higher human resource time, higher infections of opportunistic conditions, and longer and higher frequency of hospitalisations, among others.

The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

Cost-effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected African children less than 3 years of age

Background:

The International Maternal, Pediatric, and Adolescent Clinical Trials P1060 trial demonstrated superior outcomes for HIV-infected children less than 3 years old initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) with lopinavir/ritonavir compared to nevirapine, but lopinavir/ritonavir is four-fold costlier.

Design/methods:

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Pediatric model, with published and P1060 data, to project outcomes under three strategies: no ART; first-line nevirapine (with second-line lopinavir/ritonavir); and first-line lopinavir/ritonavir (second-line nevirapine). The base-case examined South African children initiating ART at age 12 months; sensitivity analyses varied all key model parameters. Outcomes included life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios [ICERs; dollars/year of life saved ($/YLS)]. We considered interventions with ICERs less than 1× per-capita gross domestic product (South Africa: $7500)/YLS as ‘very cost-effective,’ interventions with ICERs below 3× gross domestic product/YLS as ‘cost-effective,’ and interventions leading to longer life expectancy and lower lifetime costs as ‘cost-saving’.

Results:

Projected life expectancy was 2.8 years with no ART. Both ART regimens markedly improved life expectancy and were very cost-effective, compared to no ART. First-line lopinavir/ritonavir led to longer life expectancy (28.8 years) and lower lifetime costs ($41 350/person, from lower second-line costs) than first-line nevirapine (27.6 years, $44 030). First-line lopinavir/ritonavir remained cost-saving or very cost-effective compared to first-line nevirapine unless: liquid lopinavir/ritonavir led to two-fold higher virologic failure rates or 15-fold greater costs than in the base-case, or second-line ART following first-line lopinavir/ritonavir was very ineffective.

Conclusions:

On the basis of P1060 data, first-line lopinavir/ritonavir leads to longer life expectancy and is cost-saving or very cost-effective compared to first-line nevirapine. This supports WHO guidelines, but increasing access to pediatric ART is critical regardless of the regimen used.

Cryptococcal meningitis screening and community-based early adherence support in people with advanced HIV infection starting antiretroviral therapy in Tanzania and Zambia: an open-label, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Mortality in people in Africa with HIV infection starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is high, particularly in those with advanced disease. We assessed the effect of a short period of community support to supplement clinic-based services combined with serum cryptococcal antigen screening.

METHODS

We did an open-label, randomised controlled trial in six urban clinics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Lusaka, Zambia. From February, 2012, we enrolled eligible individuals with HIV infection (age ≥18 years, CD4 count of <200 cells per μL, ART naive) and randomly assigned them to either the standard clinic-based care supplemented with community support or standard clinic-based care alone, stratified by country and clinic, in permuted block sizes of ten. Clinic plus community support consisted of screening for serum cryptococcal antigen combined with antifungal therapy for patients testing antigen positive, weekly home visits for the first 4 weeks on ART by lay workers to provide support, and in Tanzania alone, re-screening for tuberculosis at 6-8 weeks after ART initiation. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 12 months, analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry, number ISCRTN 20410413.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 9, 2012, and Sept 30, 2013, 1001 patients were randomly assigned to clinic plus community support and 998 to standard care. 89 (9%) of 1001 participants in the clinic plus community support group did not receive their assigned intervention, and 11 (1%) of 998 participants in the standard care group received a home visit or a cryptococcal antigen screen rather than only standard care. At 12 months, 25 (2%) of 1001 participants in the clinic plus community support group and 24 (2%) of 998 participants in the standard care group had been lost to follow-up, and were censored at their last visit for the primary analysis. At 12 months, 134 (13%) of 1001 participants in the clinic plus community support group had died compared with 180 (18%) of 998 in the standard care group. Mortality was 28% (95% CI 10-43) lower in the clinic plus community support group than in standard care group (p=0·004).

INTERPRETATION

Screening and pre-emptive treatment for cryptococcal infection combined with a short initial period of adherence support after initiation of ART could substantially reduce mortality in HIV programmes in Africa.

FUNDING

European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

Systematic review of retention of pediatric patients on HIV treatment in low and middle-income countries 2008-2013

OBJECTIVES

There are several published systematic reviews of adult retention in care after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among adults, but limited information on pediatric retention.

DESIGN

Systematic review of pediatric retention on ART in low and middle-income countries during 2008-2013.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause attrition (death and loss to follow-up) and retention for pediatric patients receiving first-line ART in routine settings. We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register, and ISI Web of Science (January 2008-January 2014) and abstracts from AIDS and IAS (2008-2013). We estimated mean retention across cohorts using simple averages; interpolated any time period not reported to, up to the last period reported; summarized total retention in the population using Kaplan-Meier survival curves; and compared pediatric to adult retention.

RESULTS

We found 39 reports of retention in 45 patient cohorts and 55 904 patients in 23 countries. Among them, 37% of patients not retained in care were known to have died and 63% were lost to follow-up. Unweighted averages of reported retention were 85, 81, and 81% at 12, 24, and 36 months after ART initiation. From life-table analysis, we estimated retention at 12, 24, and 36 months at 88, 72, and 67%. We estimated 36-month retention at 66% in Africa and 74% in Asia.

CONCLUSION

Pediatric ART retention was similar to that among adults. There were limited data from Asia, only one study from Latin America and the Caribbean, and no data from Eastern Europe, Central Asia, or the Middle East.

Retention in care, resource utilization, and costs for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Of the estimated 800,000 adults living with HIV in Zambia in 2011, roughly half were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). As treatment scale up continues, information on the care provided to patients after initiating ART can help guide decision-making. We estimated retention in care, the quantity of resources utilized, and costs for a retrospective cohort of adults initiating ART under routine clinical conditions in Zambia.

METHODS

Data on resource utilization (antiretroviral [ARV] and non-ARV drugs, laboratory tests, outpatient clinic visits, and fixed resources) and retention in care were extracted from medical records for 846 patients who initiated ART at ≥15 years of age at six treatment sites between July 2007 and October 2008. Unit costs were estimated from the provider's perspective using site- and country-level data and are reported in 2011 USD.

RESULTS

Patients initiated ART at a median CD4 cell count of 145 cells/μL. Fifty-nine percent of patients initiated on a tenofovir-containing regimen, ranging from 15% to 86% depending on site. One year after ART initiation, 75% of patients were retained in care. The average cost per patient retained in care one year after ART initiation was $243 (95% CI, $194-$293), ranging from $184 (95% CI, $172-$195) to $304 (95% CI, $290-$319) depending on site. Patients retained in care one year after ART initiation received, on average, 11.4 months' worth of ARV drugs, 1.5 CD4 tests, 1.3 blood chemistry tests, 1.4 full blood count tests, and 6.5 clinic visits with a doctor or clinical officer. At all sites, ARV drugs were the largest cost component, ranging from 38% to 84% of total costs, depending on site.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients initiate ART late in the course of disease progression and a large proportion drop out of care after initiation. The quantity of resources utilized and costs vary widely by site, and patients utilize a different mix of resources under routine clinical conditions than if they were receiving fully guideline-concordant care. Improving retention in care and guideline concordance, including increasing the use of tenofovir in first-line ART regimens, may lead to increases in overall treatment costs.

Delivering pediatric HIV care in resource-limited settings: cost considerations in an expanded response

If children are to be protected from HIV, the expansion of PMTCT programs must be complemented by increased provision of paediatric treatment. This is expensive, yet there are humanitarian, equity and children's rights arguments to justify the prioritization of treating HIV-infected children. In the context of limited budgets, inefficiencies cost lives, either through lower coverage or less effective services. With the goal of informing the design and expansion of efficient paediatric treatment programs able to utilize to greatest effect the available resources allocated to the treatment of HIV-infected children, this article reviews what is known about cost drivers in paediatric HIV interventions, and makes suggestions for improving efficiency in paediatric HIV programming. High-impact interventions known to deliver disproportional returns on investment are highlighted and targeted for immediate scale-up. Progress will carry a cost - increased funding, as well as additional data on intervention costs and outcomes, will be required if universal access of HIV-infected children to treatment is to be achieved and sustained.