Potential gains in reproductive-aged life expectancy by eliminating maternal mortality: a demographic bonus of achieving MDG 5

A Competing Risk Analysis of Women Dying of Maternal, Infectious, or Non-Communicable Causes in the Kintampo Area of Ghana

Background: Maternal, infectious, and non-communicable causes of death combinedly are a major health problem for women of reproductive age (WRA) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Little is known about the relative risks of each of these causes of death in their combined form and their demographic impacts. The focus of studies on WRA has been on maternal health. The evolving demographic and health transitions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suggest a need for a comprehensive approach to resolve health challenges of women beyond maternal causes. Methods: Deaths and person-years of exposure (PYE) were calculated by age for WRA within 15-49 years of age in the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) area from January 2005 to December 2014. Causes of death were diagnosed using a standard verbal autopsy questionnaire and the 10th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10). Identified causes of death were categorized into three broad areas, namely, maternal, infectious, and non-communicable diseases. Multiple decrements and associated single decrement life table methods were used. Results: Averting any of the causes of death was seen to lead to improved life expectancy, but eliminating infectious causes of death leads to the highest number of years gained. Infectious causes of death affected all ages and the gains in life expectancy, assuming that these causes were eliminated, diminished with increasing age. The oldest age group, 45-49, had the greatest gain in reproductive-aged life expectancy (RALE) if maternal mortality was eliminated. Discussion: This study demonstrated the existence of a triple burden. Infectious causes of death are persistently high while deaths from non-communicable causes are rising and the level of maternal mortality is still unacceptably high. It recommends that attention should be given to all the causes of death among WRA.

Cross-Sectional Average Length of Life Childless

Increases in the average age at first birth and in the proportion of women remaining childless have extended the total number of years that women spend childless during their reproductive lifetime in several countries. To quantify the number of years that reproductive-age women live without children, we introduce the cross-sectional average length of life childless (CALC). This measure includes all the age-specific first-birth information available for the cohorts present at time t; it is a period measure based on cohort data. Using the Human Fertility Database, CALC is calculated for the year 2015 for all countries with long enough histories of fertility available. Results show that women in the majority of the studied countries spend, on average, more than half of their reproductive lives childless. Furthermore, the difference between CALCs in two countries can be decomposed to give a clear visualization of how each cohort contributes to the difference in the duration of the length of childless life in those populations. Our illustration of the decomposition shows that (1) in recent years, female cohorts in Japan and Spain at increasingly younger ages have been contributing to more years of childless life compared with those in Sweden, (2) the United States continues to represent an exception among the high-income countries with a low expectation for childless life of women, and (3) Hungary experienced a strong period effect of the recent Great Recession. These examples show that CALC and its decomposition can provide insights into first-birth patterns.

Potential gains in reproductive-aged life expectancy if maternal mortality were eradicated from the Kintampo districts of Central Ghana

Background

Almost 99% of pregnancy or childbirth-related complications globally is estimated to occur in developing regions. Yet, little is known about the demographic impact of maternal causes of death (COD) in low-and middle-income countries. Assuming that critical interventions were implemented such that maternal mortality is eradicated as a major cause of death, how would it translate to improved longevity for reproductive-aged women in the Kintampo districts of Ghana?

Methods

The study used longitudinal health and demographic surveillance data from the Kintampo districts to assess the effect of hypothetically eradicating maternal COD on reproductive-aged life expectancy by applying multiple decrement and associated single decrement life table techniques.

Results

According to the results, on the average, women would have lived an additional 4.4 years in their reproductive age if maternal mortality were eradicated as a cause of death, rising from an average of 28.7 years lived during the 2005-2014 period to 33.1 years assuming that maternal mortality was eradicated. The age patterns of maternal-related mortality and all-cause mortality depict that the maternal-related mortality is different from the all-cause mortality for women of reproductive age.

Conclusion

This observation suggests that other COD are competing with maternal mortality among the WRA in the study area and during the study period.

Trends in avoidable mortality over the life course in Mexico, 1990-2015: a cross-sectional demographic analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyse average lifespan and quantify the effect of avoidable/amenable mortality on the difference between state-specific mortality and a low-mortality benchmark in Mexico during 1990-2015.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional demographic analysis using aggregated data.

SETTING

Vital statistics from the Mexican civil registration system.

PARTICIPANTS

Aggregated national data (from 91.2 million people in 1995 to 119.9 in 2015) grouped in 64 populations (32 Mexican states (including Mexico City) by sex) with cause-of-death data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cause-specific contributions to the gap in life expectancy with a low-mortality benchmark in three age groups (0-14, 15-49 and 50-84 years).

RESULTS

Infants and children under the age of 15 years show improvements towards maximal survival in all states. However, adult males aged 15 to 49 years show deterioration after 2006 in almost every state due to increasing homicides, and a slow recovery thereafter. Out of 35 potential years, females and males live on average 34.57 (34.48 to 34.67) and 33.80 (33.34 to 34.27), respectively. Adults aged 50 to 84 years show an unexpected decrease in the low mortality benchmark, indicating nationwide deterioration among older adults. Females and males in this age group show an average survival of 28.59 (27.43 to 29.75) and 26.52 (25.33 to 27.73) out of 35 potential years, respectively. State gaps from the benchmark were mainly caused by ischaemic heart diseases, diabetes, cirrhosis and homicides. We find large health disparities between states, particularly for the adult population after 2005.

CONCLUSIONS

Mexico has succeeded in reducing mortality and between-state inequalities in children. However, adults are becoming vulnerable as they have not been able to reduce the burden of violence and conditions amenable to health services and behaviours, such as diabetes, ischaemic heart diseases and cirrhosis. These trends have led to large health disparities between Mexican states in the last 25 years.

Impact of injury-related mortality on life expectancy in Zhejiang, China based on death and population surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average time an organism is expected to live. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of injury-related mortality on life expectancy in Zhejiang Province.

METHODS

Our study used standard life tables to calculate life expectancy and cause-removed life expectancy based on mortality data from the Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance System.

RESULTS

Life expectancy of residents in Zhejiang was 77.83 years in 2013, with females having a higher life expectancy than males. The decrease in life expectancy caused by injury-related deaths was 1.19 years, the effect of which was reduced for females and urban residents compared with males and rural residents. The greatest impact on life expectancy was road traffic injuries (RTIs), (0.29 years lost overall, 0.36 for men vs. 0.21 for women and 0.26 for urban residents vs. 0.31 for rural residents). The main causes were falls (0.29 years lost overall, 0.30 for men vs. 0.28 for women and 0.28 for urban residents vs. 0.30 for rural residents), followed by drowning (0.15 years lost), suicide (0.11 years lost), and poisoning (0.04 years). For children less than 5 years old and elders aged over 65, drowning had a greater impact than falls.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that injury deaths had a major impact on life expectancy in Zhejiang. More attention should be paid to road traffic injury, and preventive action should be taken to reduce injury-related deaths to increase life expectancy, especially in children under five years of age and the elders over 65 years of age.

Potential gains in life expectancy by improving road safety in China

OBJECTIVES

Road traffic injuries (RTI) cause a significant number of injuries and deaths in China every year; the World Health Organization estimated 261,367 deaths due to RTI in 2013. As a result of the ongoing growth of China's economy, road construction and motorisation, RTI are expected to impose a heavy health burden in the future. However, the public and policy makers have not widely perceived RTI as a public health issue commensurate with its consequences, in part, due to a lack of intuitive indicator measuring the health impact.

STUDY DESIGN

Employs the cause-eliminating life table technique to provide a measure of the burden of RTI based on data from a nationally representative surveillance system in China.

METHODS

Previous studies have used indicators such as event counts, rates and disability-adjusted life years to measure the health impact of RTI; but this study uses potential gains in life expectancy to measure this impact.

RESULTS

Eliminating RTI could lead to a gain of 0.52 years in life expectancy in 2012, meaning that on average Chinese people could live a half year more than they would in the presence of RTI. Males have a substantially higher RTI death rate and consequently could have a gain in life expectancy more than twice as large as females (male 0.72 years vs female 0.28 years). The gain in rural areas (0.65 years) is twice that in urban areas (0.32 years).

CONCLUSIONS

The significant gain in life expectancy signals the urgency for public actions to improve road safety; the disparity in the burden across regions and sexes indicate a great opportunity for targeted interventions to protect health and save lives.

Strategic planning for saving the lives of mothers, newborns and children and preventing stillbirths in KwaZulu-Natal province South Africa: modelling using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)

Background

KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa has the largest population of children under the age of five and experiences the highest number of child births per annum in the country. Its population has also been ravaged by the dual epidemics of HIV and TB and it has struggled to meet targets for maternal and child mortality. In South Africa’s federal system, provinces have decision-making power on the prioritization and allocation of resources within their jurisdiction. As part of strategic planning for 2015–2019, KwaZulu-Natal provincial authorities requested an assessment of current mortality levels in the province and identification and costing of priority interventions for saving additional maternal, newborn and child lives, as well as preventing stillbirths in the province.

Methods

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to determine the set of interventions, which could save the most additional maternal and child lives and prevent stillbirths from 2015–2019, and the costs of these. The impact of family planning was assessed using two scenarios by increasing baseline coverage of modern contraception by 0.5 percentage points or 1 percentage point per annum.

Results

A total of 7,043 additional child and 297 additional maternal lives could be saved, and 2,000 stillbirths could be prevented over five years. Seventeen interventions account for 75 % of additional lives saved. Increasing family planning contributes to a further reduction of up to 137 maternal and 3,168 child deaths. The set of priority interventions scaled up to achievable levels, with no increase in contraception would require an additional US$91 million over five years or US$1.72 per capita population per year. By increasing contraceptive prevalence by one percentage point per year, overall costs to scale up to achievable coverage package, decrease by US$24 million over five years.

Conclusion

Focused attention on a set of key interventions could have a significant impact on averting stillbirths and maternal and neonatal mortality in KwaZulu-Natal. Concerted effort to prioritize family planning will save more lives overall and has the potential to decrease costs in other areas of maternal and child care.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2661-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of Pregnancy-Related Deaths on Female Life Expectancy in Zambia: Application of Life Table Techniques to Census Data

INTRODUCTION

Since 2000, the world has been coalesced around efforts to reduce maternal mortality. However, few studies have estimated the significance of eliminating maternal deaths on female life expectancy. We estimated, based on census data, the potential gains in female life expectancy assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related mortality in Zambia.

METHODS

We used data on all-cause and pregnancy-related deaths of females aged 15-49 reported in the Zambia 2010 census, and evaluated, adjusted and smoothed them using existing and verified techniques. We used associated single decrement life tables, assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths to estimate the potential gains in female life expectancy at birth, at age 15, and over the ages 15-49. We compared these gains with the gains from eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, violence and suicide.

RESULTS

Complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths would extend life expectancy at birth among Zambian women by 1.35 years and life expectancy at age 15 by 1.65 years. In rural areas, this would be 1.69 years and 2.19 years, respectively, and in urban areas, 0.78 years and 0.85 years. An additional 0.72 years would be spent in the reproductive age group 15-49; 1.00 years in rural areas and 0.35 years in urban areas. Eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, suicide and violence among women aged 15-49 would cumulatively contribute 0.55 years to female life expectancy at birth.

CONCLUSION

Eliminating pregnancy-related mortality would extend female life expectancy in Zambia substantially, with more gains among adolescents and females in rural areas. The application of life table techniques to census data proved very valuable, although rigorous evaluation and adjustment of reported deaths and age was necessary to attain plausible estimates. The collection of detailed high quality cause-specific mortality data in future censuses is indispensable.

Scaling Up Family Planning to Reduce Maternal and Child Mortality: The Potential Costs and Benefits of Modern Contraceptive Use in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Family planning contributes significantly to the prevention of maternal and child mortality. However, many women still do not use modern contraception and the numbers of unintended pregnancies, abortions and subsequent deaths are high. In this paper, we estimate the service delivery costs of scaling up modern contraception, and the potential impact on maternal, newborn and child survival in South Africa.

METHODS

The Family Planning model in Spectrum was used to project the impact of modern contraception on pregnancies, abortions and births in South Africa (2015-2030). The contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) was increased annually by 0.68 percentage points. The Lives Saved Tool was used to estimate maternal and child deaths, with coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions increasing by 5% annually. A scenario analysis was done to test impacts when: the change in CPR was 0.1% annually; and intervention coverage increased linearly to 99% in 2030.

RESULTS

If CPR increased by 0.68% annually, the number of pregnancies would reduce from 1.3 million in 2014 to one million in 2030. Unintended pregnancies, abortions and births decrease by approximately 20%. Family planning can avert approximately 7,000 newborn and child and 600 maternal deaths. The total annual costs of providing modern contraception in 2030 are estimated to be US$33 million and the cost per user of modern contraception is US$7 per year. The incremental cost per life year gained is US$40 for children and US$1,000 for mothers.

CONCLUSION

Maternal and child mortality remain high in South Africa, and scaling up family planning together with optimal maternal, newborn and child care is crucial. A huge impact can be made on maternal and child mortality, with a minimal investment per user of modern contraception.

Cost and impact of scaling up interventions to save lives of mothers and children: taking South Africa closer to MDGs 4 and 5

Background

South Africa has made substantial progress on child and maternal mortality, yet many avoidable deaths of mothers and children still occur. This analysis identifies priority interventions to be scaled up nationally and projects the potential maternal and child lives saved.

Design

We modelled the impact of maternal, newborn and child interventions using the Lives Saved Tools Projections to 2015 and used realistic coverage increases based on expert opinion considering recent policy change, financial and resource inputs, and observed coverage change. A scenario analysis was undertaken to test the impact of increasing intervention coverage to 95%.

Results

By 2015, with realistic coverage, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) can reduce to 153 deaths per 100,000 and child mortality to 34 deaths per 1,000 live births. Fifteen interventions, including labour and delivery management, early HIV treatment in pregnancy, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and handwashing with soap, will save an additional 9,000 newborns and children and 1,000 mothers annually. An additional US$370 million (US$7 per capita) will be required annually to scale up these interventions. When intervention coverage is increased to 95%, breastfeeding promotion becomes the top intervention, the MMR reduces to 116 and the child mortality ratio to 23.

Conclusions

The 15 interventions identified were adopted by the National Department of Health, and the Health Minister launched a campaign to encourage Provincial Health Departments to scale up coverage. It is hoped that by focusing on implementing these 15 interventions at high quality, South Africa will reach Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 soon after 2015 and MDG 5 several years later. Focus on HIV and TB during early antenatal care is essential. Strategic gains could be realised by targeting vulnerable populations and districts with the worst health outcomes. The analysis demonstrates the usefulness of priority setting tools and the potential for evidence-based decision making in the health sector.

Triple return on investment: the cost and impact of 13 interventions that could prevent stillbirths and save the lives of mothers and babies in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The time of labor, birth and the first days of life are the most vulnerable period for mothers and children. Despite significant global advocacy, there is insufficient understanding of the investment required to save additional lives. In particular, stillbirths have been neglected. Over 20 000 stillbirths are recorded annually in South Africa, many of which could be averted. This analysis examines available South Africa specific stillbirth data and evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of 13 interventions acknowledged to prevent stillbirths and maternal and newborn mortality.

METHODS

Multiple data sources were reviewed to evaluate changes in stillbirth rates since 2000. The intervention analysis used the Lives Saved tool (LiST) and the Family Planning module (FamPlan) in Spectrum. LiST was used to determine the number of stillbirths and maternal and neonatal deaths that could be averted by scaling up the interventions to full coverage (99%) in 2030. The impact of family planning was assessed by increasing FamPlan's default 70% coverage of modern contraception to 75% and 80% coverage. Total and incremental costs were determined in the LiST costing module. Cost-effectiveness measured incremental cost effectiveness ratios per potential life years gained.

RESULTS

Significant variability exists in national stillbirth data. Using the international stillbirth definition, the SBR was 17.6 per 1 000 births in 2013. Full coverage of the 13 interventions in 2030 could reduce the SBR by 30% to 12.4 per 1 000 births, leading to an MMR of 132 per 100 000 and an NMR of 7 per 1 000 live births. Increased family planning coverage reduces the number of deaths significantly. The full intervention package, with 80% family planning coverage in 2030, would require US$420 million (US$7.8 per capita) annually, which is less than baseline costs of US$550 million (US$10.2 per capita). All interventions were highly cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

This is the first analysis in South Africa to assess the impact of scaling up interventions to avert stillbirths. Improved coverage of 13 interventions that are already recommended could significantly impact the rates of stillbirth and maternal and neonatal mortality. Family planning should also be prioritized to reduce mortality and overall costs.

The impact of the major causes of death on life expectancy in China: a 60-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

In the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government set the goal of increasing life expectancy by one year. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of major causes of death on the life expectancy of the Chinese people between 1950 and 2010 and predict changing trends to identify major issues requiring future attention.

METHODS

A continuous database organised by population and death data on diseases by age group between 1950 and 2010 were created from A Province in Eastern China. The diseases were classified into four categories by the International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10): infectious and parasitic diseases, chronic diseases, accidental injuries, and maternal diseases. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) were applied to reflect the impact on life expectancy caused by deaths from various diseases, by using the cause-eliminated life table.

RESULTS

The PGLEs of infectious and parasitic diseases decreased from 15.59 years in 1950, to 0.07 year in 2010, and have remained low since 2000. However, the PGLEs of chronic diseases increased from 8.70 years in 1950, to 13.36 years in 2010, and indicated an increasing future trend. The two opposite trends exhibited a 'scissors-like difference'. The proportion of accidental injuries and maternal diseases in the death spectrum was low. The PGLEs of accidental injuries decreased from 2.95 years in 1950, to 0.86 year in 2010, maintaining a low level, while the PGLEs of maternal diseases dropped from 0.56 to 0.002 year during the same period, approaching zero.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study provide useful information, which could contribute to a more effective allocation of public health programmes. In recent years, chronic diseases and accidental injuries have emerged as major factors influencing life expectancy. Primary and secondary prevention actions, such as public education, modification of behaviours, and introduction of safety measures should be emphasised in efforts to promote life expectancy. The morbidity and mortality rates of infectious, parasitic, and maternal diseases should be maintained at low levels.