Climate change and the distribution of neotropical red-bellied toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): how to prioritize species and populations?

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas for an Endangered Salamander in China

Climate change has been considered to pose critical threats for wildlife. During the past decade, species distribution models were widely used to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution of species' suitable habitats. Among all the vertebrates, amphibians are most vulnerable to climate change. This is especially true for salamanders, which possess some specific traits such as cutaneous respiration and low vagility. The Wushan salamander (Liua shihi) is a threatened and protected salamander in China, with its wild population decreasing continuously. The main objective of this study was to predict the distribution of suitable habitat for L. shihi using the ENMeval parameter-optimized MaxEnt model under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed that precipitation, cloud density, vegetation type, and ultraviolet radiation were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. shihi. Currently, the suitable habitats for L. shihi are mainly concentrated in the Daba Mountains, including northeastern Chongqing and western Hubei Provinces. Under the future climate conditions, the area of suitable habitats increased, which mainly occurred in central Guizhou Province. This study provided important information for the conservation of L. shihi. Future studies can incorporate more species distribution models to better understand the effects of climate change on the distribution of L. shihi.

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications

The Wushan Salamander (Liua shihi), Jinfo Salamander (Pseudohynobius jinfo), and Wenxian Knobby Salamander (Tylototriton wenxianensis) are rare national Class II protected wild animals in China. We performed MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze the potential distribution and trends of these species in Chongqing under current and future climate conditions. Species distribution data were primarily obtained from field surveys, supplemented by museum collections and the existing literature. These efforts yielded 636 records, including 43 for P. jinfo, 23 for T. wenxianensis, and 570 for L. shihi. Duplicate records within the same 100 m × 100 m grid cell were removed using ENMTools, resulting in 10, 12, and 58 valid distribution points for P. jinfo, T. wenxianensis, and L. shihi, respectively. The optimization of feature class parameters (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were applied using R package "ENMeval 2.0" to establish the optimal model with MaxEnt. The refined models were applied to simulate the suitable distribution areas for the three species. The results indicate that the current suitable habitat area for L. shihi accounted for 9.72% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality. It is projected that, by 2050, the proportion of suitable habitat will increase to 12.54% but will decrease to 11.98% by 2070 and further decline to 8.80% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for P. jinfo accounted for 1.08% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is expected to decrease to 0.31%% by 2050, 0.20% by 2070, and 0.07% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for T. wenxianensis accounted for 0.81% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is anticipated to decrease to 0.37% by 2050, 0.21% by 2070, and 0.06% by 2090. Human disturbance, climate variables, and habitat characteristics are the primary factors influencing the distribution of three salamander species in Chongqing. The proximity to roads significantly impacts L. shihi, while climate conditions mainly affect P. jinfo, and the distance to water sources is crucial for T. wenxianensis. The following suggestions were made based on key variables identified for each species: (1) For L. shihi, it is imperative to minimize human disturbances and preserve areas without roads and the existing vegetation within nature reserves to ensure their continued existence. (2) For P. jinfo, the conservation of high-altitude habitats is of utmost importance, along with the reduction in disturbances caused by roads to maintain the species' ecological niche. (3) For T. wenxianensis, the protection of aquatic habitats is crucial. Additionally, efforts to mitigate the impacts of road construction and enhance public awareness are essential for the preservation of this species and the connectivity of its habitats.

Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach

Climate change can affect species distribution patterns in three different ways: pushing them to disperse to new suitable areas, forcing them to adapt to novel climatic conditions, or driving them to extinction. However, the biological and geographical traits that lead to these different responses remain poorly explored. Here, we evaluated how ecological and biogeographic traits influence amphibians’ response to climate change. We performed a systematic review searching for studies that evaluated the effects of future climate change on amphibian’s distribution. Our research returned 31 articles that projected the distribution of 331 amphibians. Our results demonstrate that species inhabiting an elevation above 515 m will lose a significant portion of their climatically suitable area. We also found that as isothermality increases, the amount of area suitable in response to climate change also increases. Another important discovery was that as the size of the baseline area increases, the greater must be the loss of climatically suitable areas. On the other hand, species with very small areas tend to keep their current climatically suitable area in the future. Furthermore, our results indicate that species that inhabit dry habitats tend to expand their suitable area in response to climate change. This result can be explained by the environmental characteristics of these habitats, which tend to present extreme seasonal climates with well-defined periods of drought and rain. We also found that anurans that inhabit exclusively forests are projected to lose a greater portion of their suitable areas, when compared to species that inhabit both forest and open areas, wetlands, and dry and rupestrian environments. The biogeographical realm also influenced anuran’s range shifts, with Afrotropic and Nearctic species projected to expand their geographical ranges. The assessment of climate change effects on amphibian distribution has been the focus of a growing number of studies. Despite this, some regions and species remain underrepresented. Current literature evaluates about 4% of the 7,477 species of Anura and 8% of the 773 species of Caudata and some regions rich in amphibian species remain severely underrepresented, such as Madagascar. Thus, future studies should focus on regions and taxas that remain underrepresented.

Comparison between optimized MaxEnt and random forest modeling in predicting potential distribution: A case study with Quasipaa boulengeri in China

Random forest (RF) and MaxEnt models are shallow machine learning approaches that perform well in predicting species' potential distributions. RF models can produce robust results with the default automatic configuration in most cases, but it is necessary for MaxEnt to optimize the model settings to improve the performance, and the predictive performance difference between optimized MaxEnt and RF is uncertain. To explore this issue, the potential distribution of the endangered amphibian Quasipaa boulengeri in China was predicted using optimized MaxEnt and RF models. A total of 408 occurrence data were selected, 1000 locations were generated as pseudo-absence data by the geographic distance method, and 10,000 sites were selected as background data by creating a bias file. Partial ROC at different thresholds and success rate curves were used to compare the predictive performances between optimized MaxEnt and RF. Our results showed that the RF and optimized MaxEnt models both had good performance in predicting the potential distribution of Q. boulengeri, with the RF model performing slightly better whether based on partial ROC or success rate curves. Furthermore, the core suitable habitat regions of Q. boulengeri identified by RF and MaxEnt were similar and were all located in the Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces. However, the RF model produced a habitat suitability map with higher discrimination and greater heterogeneity. Temperature annual range, mean temperature of the driest quarter, and annual precipitation were the vital environmental variables limiting the distribution of Q. boulengeri. The RF model is the stronger machine learner. We believe it may be more applicable in predicting the native potential distributions of species with sufficient occurrence data, given the additional predictive detail, the simplicity of use, the computational time involved, and the operational complexity.

Amphibians of the Sinos River Basin, southern Brazil

The Sinos River encompasses a wide area of natural habitats and, at the same time, supports one of the highest population densities of southern Brazil. Consequently, natural habitats along the Basin present a high degree of habitat disturbance. Despite of the existence of threatened species, information about diversity of amphibians in that area is scarce. Thus, we aimed to catalogue the amphibian species of the Sinos River Basin from records in scientific collections and compilation of published articles. We recorded 52 species, all with geographic coordinates validated at the collection point, indicating that the Sinos River Basin harbours about 50% of the amphibian species of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Three anuran species were classified as having some degree of threat: Melanophryniscus cambaraensis, Melanophryniscus dorsalis and Thoropa saxatilis. We also expected other 18 species with a high probability of occurrence in the Basin. This work shows that, despite the intense human impact, the Sinos River Basin has a relevant role for the maintenance of a considerable fraction of the amphibian biodiversity in southern Brazil.

Seasonal variation of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in a threatened anuran species from Uruguay

Chytridiomycosis, an emergent infectious disease caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is considered one of the drivers of the current amphibian biodiversity loss. To inform endangered species conservation efforts, it is essential to improve our knowledge about the abiotic and biotic factors that influence Bd infection dynamics in the wild. Here, we analyzed variation of Bd infection in the redbelly toad Melanophryniscus montevidensis, a threatened bufonid from Uruguay. We tested the influence of temperature, precipitation, season, and host population size on Bd prevalence and intensity. Additionally, considering the sub-lethal effects of Bd, we tested if these variables, potentially through their effect on Bd, also explain the variation in host body condition. We determined a high Bd prevalence of 41% (100/241), and that population size influenced both Bd prevalence and infection intensity. We identified an effect of precipitation and season on Bd infection intensity and an effect of season on toad body condition. In addition, we found a negative effect of infection intensity on body condition; moreover, while some toads cleared the infection, their body condition did not improve, suggesting a long-term cost. This is the first report on host population size as an important factor in Bd infection dynamics in a threatened anuran species, and seasonal demographic changes appear to play an important role in the dynamics. Finally, we highlight the need for monitoring Bd in this and other endangered amphibian populations, especially those within the genus Melanophryniscus, which includes several Endangered and Data Deficient species in South America.

Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?

The global amphibian crisis is driven by a range of stressors including disease, habitat loss, and environmental contamination. The role of climate change remains poorly studied and is likely to influence environmental suitability, ranges, reproduction, and phenology. This study aimed to characterize the bioclimatic-habitat niche space of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) throughout its European range and to assess the impact of climate on the toad's environmental suitability and breeding behavior in Ireland, where declines in recent decades have resulted in it being regionally Red-Listed as Endangered. To address these questions, we first identified which climate variables best predict the current bioclimatic niche, fecundity (number of eggs deposit), and phenology. We then used future climate projections for two time periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to predict how the species range, fecundity, and phenology would change. The European range of the species was found to be limited by winter temperatures while its bioclimatic niche varied markedly throughout its range. Species distribution models suggested projected climate change will increase environmental suitability for the species throughout its range, including Ireland, but most notably in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Fecundity in Ireland was greatest during the cool temperatures of spring and after wet winters associated with ephemeral breeding pool availability. Warm, dry summers in the preceding year influenced fecundity the following spring indicative of carryover effects. Initiation of spawning was driven by spring temperatures, not rainfall. Projections suggested future climate change may increase fecundity in Ireland while spawning may commence earlier throughout the 21st century especially under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). Despite recent range contraction and population declines due to habitat deterioration, the Natterjack toad, if subject to a suitable species conservation strategy, has the potential to be a climate change winner, notwithstanding unpredictable habitat and land-use change, sea-level rise inducing coastal erosion, changes in invertebrate prey abundance, and disease.

The Oral Bacterial Community in Melanophryniscus admirabilis (Admirable Red-Belly Toads): Implications for Conservation

Melanophryniscus admirabilis (admirable red-belly toad) is a microendemic and critically endangered species found exclusively along 700 m of the Forqueta River, in a fragment of the Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. One of the greatest concerns regarding the conservation of this species is the extensive use of pesticides in areas surrounding their natural habitat. In recent years, the adaptation and persistence of animal species in human-impacted environments have been associated with microbiota. Therefore, the present study aimed to characterize the oral bacterial community of wild M. admirabilis and to address the question of how this community might contribute to this toad’s adaptation in the anthropogenic environment as well as its general metabolic capabilities. A total of 11 oral samples collected from wild M. admirabilis were characterized and analyzed via high-throughput sequencing. Fragments of the 16S rRNA variable region 4 (V4) were amplified, and sequencing was conducted using an Ion Personal Genome Machine (PGM) System with 316 chips. A total of 181,350 sequences were obtained, resulting in 16 phyla, 34 classes, 39 orders, and 77 families. Proteobacteria dominated (53%) the oral microbiota of toads, followed by Firmicutes (18%), Bacteroidetes (17%), and Actinobacteria (5%). No significant differences in microbial community profile from among the samples were reported, which suggests that the low dietary diversity observed in this population may directly influence the bacterial composition. Inferences of microbiome function were performed using PICRUSt2 software. Important pathways (e.g., xenobiotic degradation pathways for pesticides and aromatic phenolic compounds) were detected, which suggests that the bacterial communities may serve important roles in M. admirabilis health and survival in the anthropogenic environment. Overall, our results have important implications for the conservation and management of this microendemic and critically endangered species.

Seasonal demography of the threatened Montevideo Redbelly Toad (Melanophryniscus montevidensis) in a protected area of Uruguay

Estimates of demographic parameters are scarce for Neotropical amphibians, a concerning fact because this region has the highest proportion of threatened amphibians in the world. We conducted a 3-year study where we applied a robust capture–mark–recapture design to assess the importance of breeding and non-breeding activity patterns over the survival rates, detection probabilities, and abundances of the Montevideo Redbelly Toad (Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Philippi, 1902)), a threatened anuran from Uruguay. The best models grouped seasons into hot and cold periods cyclically, were state-dependent in transition probabilities, and were time-dependent in detection probabilities for adults, but had constant detection probabilities for juveniles. Averaged estimates suggest a high survivorship rate during cold seasons (above 80%), but lower probabilities (below 60%) during hot seasons, especially for males. Analogously, the non-breeding activity had a seasonal pattern, with higher activity during spring and higher sheltering rates during autumn. These activity rates negatively influenced the averaged survivorship rates of adult males and females. Long-term (matrix) projections of seasonal survivorships, along with assessments of the causes of these patterns, should be carried out to determine extinction probabilities and possible threats for the conservation of the genus Melanophryniscus.

Unraveling fine-scale habitat use for secretive species: When and where toads are found when not breeding

A good understanding of species-habitat associations, or habitat use, is required to establish conservation strategies for any species. Many amphibian species are elusive and most information concerning amphibian habitat use comes from breeding sites where they are comparatively easy to find and study. Knowledge about retreat sites is extremely limited for most species and for the greater part of the year. For such species, it is especially important to factor in detection probability in habitat analyses, because otherwise distorted views about habitat preferences may result, e.g., when a species is more visible in habitat type B than in A, even though A may be preferred. The South American red-belly toad, Melanophryniscus pachyrhynus, is a range-restricted species from Southern Brazil and Uruguay that inhabits open areas with rocky outcrops and is usually seen only during explosive breeding events. Here we studied the fine-scale habitat use of the red-belly toad outside of the breeding season to identify retreat sites and test for the importance of accounting for species imperfect detection, using Bayesian occupancy models. We identified shrub density and the number of loose rocks as important predictors of occupancy, while detection probability was highest at intermediate temperatures. Considering the harsh (dry and hot) conditions of rocky outcrops, shrubs and loose rocks may both work as important refuges, besides providing food resources and protecting against predation. Rocky outcrops have been suffering changes in habitat configuration and we identify nonbreeding habitat preferences at a fine scale, which may help to promote population persistence, and highlight the importance of accounting for imperfect detection when studying secretive species.

Are the unken reflex and the aposematic colouration of Red-Bellied Toads efficient against bird predation?

Aposematic signals as well as body behaviours may be important anti-predator defences. Species of the genus Melanophryniscus are characterised by having toxic lipophilic alkaloids in the skin and for presenting a red ventral colouration, which can be observed when they perform the behaviour called the unken reflex. Both the reflex behaviour and the colouration pattern are described as defence mechanisms. However, there are currently no studies testing their effectiveness against predators. This study aimed to test experimentally if both ventral conspicuous colouration and the unken reflex in Melanophryniscus cambaraensis function as aposematic signals against visually oriented predators (birds). We simulated the species studied using three different clay toad models as follows: (a) in a normal position with green coloured bodies, (b) in the unken reflex position with green coloured body and extremities and (c) in the unken reflex position with a green body and red extremities. Models were distributed on a known M. cambaraensis breeding site and in the adjacent forest. More than half of the attacks on the models were from birds; however, there was no preference for any model type. Thus, just the presence of the red colour associated with the motionless unken reflex position does not seem to prevent attacks from potential predators. It is possible that the effective aposematic signal in Melanophryniscus is achieved through the unken reflex movement together with the subsequent exhibition of the warning colouration and the secretion of toxins.

Recent and future threats to the Endangered Cuban toad Peltophryne longinasus: potential additive impacts of climate change and habitat loss

Habitat loss and climate change are major threats to amphibian species worldwide. We combined niche modelling under various climatic scenarios with analysis of habitat loss and the appropriateness of Cuban protected areas to identify major risk zones for the Endangered Cuban toad Peltophryne longinasus. Four subspecies with disjunct distributions associated with mountain forests are recognized. Our results suggest that the western subspecies, P. longinasus longinasus and P. longinasus cajalbanensis, are at risk from global warming, habitat degradation and potential additive effects. Peltophryne longinasus dunni, in central Cuba, has the lowest threat level related to climate change and habitat loss but could become increasingly threatened by the presence of the infectious disease chytridiomycosis. The eastern subspecies, P. longinasus ramsdeni, faces moderate impacts of climate change and habitat loss; however, low opportunity of migration to new areas and population decline justify a high threatened status for this subspecies. Our results predict minor temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the future. Nevertheless, at the biological level these changes could generate variations in species physiology, vocal behaviour and prey availability, and could probably increase the risk of predation. In Cuba protected areas have contributed to avoiding excessive forest loss but the potential impact of climate change was not considered in their original design. Our findings confirm that all subspecies of P. longinasus are threatened but management measures should be tailored according to the various predicted impacts.

Diurnal? Calling activity patterns reveal nocturnal habits in the aposematic toad Melanophryniscus rubriventris

In diurnal species with short breeding seasons, an extension of diel activity to the night hours could be favoured to maximize mating opportunities, but individuals must deal with physiological and behavioural constraints. We tested this hypothesis in the Yungas Red-belly Toad (Melanophryniscus rubriventris (Vellard, 1947)). We registered the diel pattern of male calling activity in two localities using automated recording systems, and related it to abiotic factors such as temperature, relative air humidity, and precipitation. The diel pattern of vocalization was mainly diurnal. Interestingly though, nocturnal calling activity was a common feature, representing between 40% and 43% of call records in both localities. Vocal activity was significantly influenced by time of the day and presence of rainfall. Calling males showed high plasticity, with activity in the entire environmental range of relative air humidity and temperature. Nocturnal calling seems to play an important role in the mating strategy of males, and it is probably more frequent in the genus Melanophryniscus than currently assumed. We discuss the implications of our findings in relation to different aspects of ecology of the species and suggest that bright colouration in M. rubriventris might result from a compromise between several nonconflicting functions (e.g., aposematism and thermoregulation).

Landscape history improves detection of marginal habitats on semi-natural grasslands

Semi-natural grassland habitats have markedly declined from their historical coverage, thus causing substantial losses for agricultural biodiversity and establishing a consequent need to spot the remaining habitat patches. These patches are generally remnants of once larger habitat areas, formed by uninterrupted and low-intensity management for centuries, but then later being isolated and fragmented into smaller pieces. In the light of this development, past landscape phases have a crucial role for the present existence of semi-natural grasslands. The importance of historical factors has been indicated in many studies but evaluation of their added value, or actual site-specific effects compared to observations of only the present landscape characteristics, is not generally provided. As data related to the past is often difficult to obtain, tedious to process and challenging to interpret, assessment of its advantages and related effects - or consequences of potential exclusion - would be needed. In this study, we used maximum entropy approach to model the distribution of Fumewort (Corydalis solida) which in the study area is a good indicator of valuable semi-natural habitats. We constructed three different models - one based on only the contemporary environment with expected indicators of habitat stability, one solely on the historical landscape phases and long-term dynamics, and one combining variables from the past and the present. Predictions of the three models were validated and compared with each other, followed by an analysis indicating the similarity of model results with known Fumewort occurrences. Our results indicate that present landscapes may provide workable surrogates to delineate larger core habitats, but utilization of historical data markedly improves the detection of small outlying patches. These conclusions emphasize the importance of previous landscape phases particularly in detecting marginal semi-natural grassland habitats, existing in contemporarily suboptimal conditions and being prone to disappear if no further actions are taken.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China

Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of “precipitation of the warmest quarter” and “annual mean temperature” were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.