Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model

Remote monitoring, personnel extinguishment or helicopter extinguishment? How to control forest fires more effectively

Forest fires have a great impact on the ecological environment. The government needs to take measures to control forest fires. Forest fires are easily affected by wind speed and other weather conditions, and the difficulty of extinguishing forest fires is easily affected by terrain complexity. Effective management methods can protect the important ecological functions of forests, thereby maintaining long-term development and economic efficiency. The government can put out the fire by remote monitoring, personnel extinguishing and helicopter extinguishing. Different from most articles on how to eliminate forest fires from the technical point of view, this article mainly analyzes from the two aspects of optimizing resource allocation and guiding policy formulation. This article constructs the differential game model under these three modes, and then obtains the equilibrium result. And the comparative analysis. Finally, the conclusion is drawn. The stronger the wind, the more residents need to flee. However, strong winds are not conducive to crews and helicopters fighting the fire. Rather than fighting fires, residents are more inclined to detect forest fires in time through remote monitoring. When the personnel can effectively control the fire, the personnel fire extinguishing mode is preferentially selected. Otherwise, helicopter firefighting mode should be selected.

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

AIM

Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants.

METHODS

We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models.

RESULTS

Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%-23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

Individual and interactive effects of chronic anthropogenic disturbance and rainfall on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic composition and diversity of extrafloral nectary-bearing plants in Brazilian Caatinga

Chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD) and climate change represent two of the major threats to biodiversity globally, but their combined effects are not well understood. Here we investigate the individual and interactive effects of increasing CAD and decreasing rainfall on the composition and taxonomic (TD), functional (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants possessing extrafloral nectaries (EFNs) in semi-arid Brazilian Caatinga. EFNs attract ants that protect plants against insect herbivore attack and are extremely prevalent in the Caatinga flora. EFN-bearing plants were censused along gradients of disturbance and rainfall in Catimbau National Park in north-eastern Brazil. We recorded a total of 2243 individuals belonging to 21 species. Taxonomic and functional composition varied along the rainfall gradient, but not along the disturbance gradient. There was a significant interaction between increasing disturbance and decreasing rainfall, with CAD leading to decreased TD, FD and PD in the most arid areas, and to increased TD, FD and PD in the wettest areas. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in the EFN traits we analysed, which explains the strong matching between patterns of FD and PD along the environmental gradients. The interactive effects of disturbance and rainfall revealed by our study indicate that the decreased rainfall forecast for Caatinga under climate change will increase the sensitivity of EFN-bearing plants to anthropogenic disturbance. This has important implications for the availability of a key food resource, which would likely have cascading effects on higher trophic levels.

Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change

Carbon allocation plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics and plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Hence, proper description of this process in vegetation models is crucial for the simulations of the impact of climate change on carbon cycling in forests. Here we review how carbon allocation modelling is currently implemented in 31 contrasting models to identify the main gaps compared with our theoretical and empirical understanding of carbon allocation. A hybrid approach based on combining several principles and/or types of carbon allocation modelling prevailed in the examined models, while physiologically more sophisticated approaches were used less often than empirical ones. The analysis revealed that, although the number of carbon allocation studies over the past 10 years has substantially increased, some background processes are still insufficiently understood and some issues in models are frequently poorly represented, oversimplified or even omitted. Hence, current challenges for carbon allocation modelling in forest ecosystems are (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, particularly regarding the impact of disturbances on carbon allocation, accumulation and utilization of nonstructural carbohydrates, and carbon use by symbionts, and (ii) to implement existing knowledge of carbon allocation into defence, regeneration and improved resource uptake in order to better account for changing environmental conditions.

Germination fitness of two temperate epiphytic ferns shifts under increasing temperatures and forest fragmentation

Ferns are an important component of ecosystems around the world. Studies of the impacts that global changes may have on ferns are scarce, yet emerging studies indicate that some species may be particularly sensitive to climate change. The lack of research in this subject is much more aggravated in the case of epiphytes, and especially those that live under temperate climates. A mathematical model was developed for two temperate epiphytic ferns in order to predict potential impacts on spore germination kinetics, in response to different scenarios of global change, coming from increasing temperature and forest fragmentation. Our results show that an increasing temperature will have a negative impact over the populations of these temperate epiphytic ferns. Under unfragmented forests the germination percentage was comparatively less influenced than in fragmented patches. This study highlight that, in the long term, populations of the studied epiphytic temperate ferns may decline due to climate change. Overall, epiphytic fern communities will suffer changes in diversity, richness and dominance. Our study draws attention to the role of ferns in epiphytic communities of temperate forests, emphasizing the importance of considering these plants in any conservation strategy, specifically forest conservation. From a methodological point of view, the model we propose could be easily used to dynamically monitor the status of ecosystems, allowing the quick prediction of possible future scenarios, which is a crucial issue in biodiversity conservation decision-making.