Redefining thermal regimes to design reserves for coral reefs in the face of climate change

Short-term improvement of heat tolerance in naturally growing Acropora corals in Okinawa

Mass bleaching and subsequent mortality of reef corals by heat stress has increased globally since the late 20th century, due to global warming. Some experimental studies have reported that corals may increase heat tolerance for short periods, but only a few such studies have monitored naturally-growing colonies. Therefore, we monitored the survival, growth, and bleaching status of Acropora corals in fixed plots by distinguishing individual colonies on a heat-sensitive reef flat in Okinawa, Japan. The level of heat stress, assessed by the modified version of degree heating week duration in July and August, when the seawater temperature was the highest, was minimally but significantly higher in 2017 than in 2016; however, the same colonies exhibited less bleaching and mortality in 2017 than in 2016. Another study conducted at the same site showed that the dominant unicellular endosymbiotic algal species did not change before and after the 2016 bleaching, indicating that shifting and switching of the Symbiodiniaceae community did not contribute to improved heat tolerance. Colonies that suffered from partial mortality in 2016 were completely bleached at higher rates in 2017 than those without partial mortality in 2016. The present results suggest that either genetic or epigenetic changes in coral hosts and/or algal symbionts, or the shifting or switching of microbes other than endosymbionts, may have improved coral holobiont heat tolerance.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

Three decades of heat stress exposure in Caribbean coral reefs: a new regional delineation to enhance conservation

Increasing heat stress due to global climate change is causing coral reef decline, and the Caribbean has been one of the most vulnerable regions. Here, we assessed three decades (1985-2017) of heat stress exposure in the wider Caribbean at ecoregional and local scales using remote sensing. We found a high spatial and temporal variability of heat stress, emphasizing an observed increase in heat exposure over time in most ecoregions, especially from 2003 identified as a temporal change point in heat stress. A spatiotemporal analysis classified the Caribbean into eight heat-stress regions offering a new regionalization scheme based on historical heat exposure patterns. The temporal analysis confirmed the years 1998, 2005, 2010-2011, 2015 and 2017 as severe and widespread Caribbean heat-stress events and recognized a change point in 2002-2004, after which heat exposure has been frequent in most subsequent years. Major heat-stress events may be associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but we highlight the relevance of the long-term increase in heat exposure in most ecoregions and in all ENSO phases. This work produced a new baseline and regionalization of heat stress in the basin that will enhance conservation and planning efforts underway.

Ecosystem restructuring along the Great Barrier Reef following mass coral bleaching

Global warming is markedly changing diverse coral reef ecosystems through an increasing frequency and magnitude of mass bleaching events^1-3. How local impacts scale up across affected regions depends on numerous factors, including patchiness in coral mortality, metabolic effects of extreme temperatures on populations of reef-dwelling species⁴ and interactions between taxa. Here we use data from before and after the 2016 mass bleaching event to evaluate ecological changes in corals, algae, fishes and mobile invertebrates at 186 sites along the full latitudinal span of the Great Barrier Reef and western Coral Sea. One year after the bleaching event, reductions in live coral cover of up to 51% were observed on surveyed reefs that experienced extreme temperatures; however, regional patterns of coral mortality were patchy. Consistent declines in coral-feeding fishes were evident at the most heavily affected reefs, whereas few other short-term responses of reef fishes and invertebrates could be attributed directly to changes in coral cover. Nevertheless, substantial region-wide ecological changes occurred that were mostly independent of coral loss, and instead appeared to be linked directly to sea temperatures. Community-wide trophic restructuring was evident, with weakening of strong pre-existing latitudinal gradients in the diversity of fishes, invertebrates and their functional groups. In particular, fishes that scrape algae from reef surfaces, which are considered to be important for recovery after bleaching², declined on northern reefs, whereas other herbivorous groups increased on southern reefs. The full impact of the 2016 bleaching event may not be realized until dead corals erode during the next decade^5,6. However, our short-term observations suggest that the recovery processes, and the ultimate scale of impact, are affected by functional changes in communities, which in turn depend on the thermal affinities of local reef-associated fauna. Such changes will vary geographically, and may be particularly acute at locations where many fishes and invertebrates are close to their thermal distribution limits⁷.

High frequency temperature variability reduces the risk of coral bleaching

Coral bleaching is the detrimental expulsion of algal symbionts from their cnidarian hosts, and predominantly occurs when corals are exposed to thermal stress. The incidence and severity of bleaching is often spatially heterogeneous within reef-scales (<1 km), and is therefore not predictable using conventional remote sensing products. Here, we systematically assess the relationship between in situ measurements of 20 environmental variables, along with seven remotely sensed SST thermal stress metrics, and 81 observed bleaching events at coral reef locations spanning five major reef regions globally. We find that high-frequency temperature variability (i.e., daily temperature range) was the most influential factor in predicting bleaching prevalence and had a mitigating effect, such that a 1 °C increase in daily temperature range would reduce the odds of more severe bleaching by a factor of 33. Our findings suggest that reefs with greater high-frequency temperature variability may represent particularly important opportunities to conserve coral ecosystems against the major threat posed by warming ocean temperatures.

Coral bleaching is often predicted via remote sensing of ocean temperatures at large scales, obscuring important reef-scale drivers and biological responses. Here, the authors use in- situ data to show that bleaching is lower globally at reef habitats with greater diurnal temperature variability.

Mortality, recovery, and community shifts of scleractinian corals in Puerto Rico one decade after the 2005 regional bleaching event

This work analyzes the mortality, recovery, and shifts in the composition of scleractinian corals from Puerto Rico one decade after the 2005 regional coral bleaching event. Temporal and spatial patterns of coral community structure were examined using a stratified, non-random sampling approach based on five permanent transects per reef at 16 reef stations. A negative correlation between percent coral cover loss and light attenuation coefficient (Kd₄₉₀) was observed, suggesting that light attenuation, as influenced by water turbidity and depth, played a major role in coral protection during the bleaching event (“sunblock effect”). Responses of coral assemblages varied after the bleaching event, including shifts of cover from massive corals (Orbicella spp.) to opportunistic (Porites astreoides) and branching corals (Madracis auretenra, P. porites) and/or turf algae; partial recovery of reef substrate cover by O. annularis complex; and no measurable changes in coral assemblages before and after the event.

Seasonal variation modulates coral sensibility to heat-stress and explains annual changes in coral productivity

The potential effects of seasonal acclimatization on coral sensitivity to heat-stress, has received limited attention despite differing bleaching thresholds for summer and winter. In this study, we examined the response of two contrasting phenotypes, termed winter and summer, of four Caribbean reef corals to similar light and heat-stress levels. The four species investigated were categorized into two groups: species with the ability to harbour large number of symbionts, Orbicella annularis and O. faveolata, and species with reduced symbiont density (Montastraea cavernosa and Pseudodiploria strigosa). The first group showed higher capacity to enhance photosynthetic rates per area (P_max), while P_max enhancement in the second group was more dependent on Symbiodinium performance (P_sym). In summer all four species presented higher productivity, but also higher sensitivity to lose coral photosynthesis under heat-stress. In contrast, corals in winter exhibit symbionts with higher capacity to photoacclimate to the increased levels of light-stress elicited by heat-stress. Overall, our study supports the importance of the acclimatory coral condition in addition to the previous thermal history, to determine the severity of the impact of heat-stress on coral physiology, but also the dependence of this response on the particular structural and functional traits of the species.

Transient turbid water mass reduces temperature-induced coral bleaching and mortality in Barbados

Global warming is seen as one of the greatest threats to the world’s coral reefs and, with the continued rise in sea surface temperature predicted into the future, there is a great need for further understanding of how to prevent and address the damaging impacts. This is particularly so for countries whose economies depend heavily on healthy reefs, such as those of the eastern Caribbean. Here, we compare the severity of bleaching and mortality for five dominant coral species at six representative reef sites in Barbados during the two most significant warm-water events ever recorded in the eastern Caribbean, i.e., 2005 and 2010, and describe prevailing island-scale sea water conditions during both events. In so doing, we demonstrate that coral bleaching and subsequent mortality were considerably lower in 2010 than in 2005 for all species, irrespective of site, even though the anomalously warm water temperature profiles were very similar between years. We also show that during the 2010 event, Barbados was engulfed by a transient dark green turbid water mass of riverine origin coming from South America. We suggest that reduced exposure to high solar radiation associated with this transient water mass was the primary contributing factor to the lower bleaching and mortality observed in all corals. We conclude that monitoring these episodic mesoscale oceanographic features might improve risk assessments of southeastern Caribbean reefs to warm-water events in the future.

Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys

Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975–2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32^oC per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975–1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances

Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.