Health gain by salt reduction in europe: a modelling study

Advances in Reducing Salt Content in Processed Meats with Basic Amino Acids

Basic amino acids have emerged as a pivotal area of research in efforts to decrease the sodium content in meat products, primarily due to their ability to enhance flavor, improve taste, and effectively replace sodium salts. This review synthesizes current strategies for sodium reduction in meat products and offers an overview of previous studies examining the role of basic amino acids in such applications, including their impact on sensory attributes and structural alterations. Furthermore, the implications of these strategies on product quality are examined, addressing aspects such as protein hydrolysis, oxidation, color, and textural changes, as well as potential underlying mechanisms. Additionally, future challenges and trends in the utilization of basic amino acids in processed meats are explored. Overall, basic amino acids exhibit significant potential as sodium salt substitutes, particularly at low NaCl concentrations. Their combinations with chloride salts, yeast extracts, and other salts have been explored as alternative sodium reduction strategies. However, challenges remain in their application to meat products, including high production costs, consumer acceptance, and stability during large-scale production. Future research should focus on optimizing the use of basic amino acids, enhancing their economic feasibility, and addressing technical hurdles.

A Model of Individual BMI Trajectories

A risk factor model of body mass index (BMI) is an important building block of health simulations aimed at estimating government policy effects with regard to overweight and obesity. We created a model that generates representative population level distributions and that also mimics realistic BMI trajectories at an individual level so that policies aimed at individuals can be simulated. The model is constructed by combining several datasets. First, the population level distribution is extracted from a large, cross-sectional dataset. The trend in this distribution is estimated from historical data. In addition, longitudinal data are used to model how individuals move along typical trajectories over time. The model faithfully describes the population level distribution of BMI, stratified by sex, level of education and age. It is able to generate life course trajectories for individuals which seem plausible, but it does not capture extreme fluctuations, such as rapid weight loss.

Salt: a narrative review and local policy initiatives in Israel

High salt intake is a well-known risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Some recent prospective studies have challenged the salt-CVD link. We conducted a narrative review based on a systematic search and provided a national policy update. We reviewed 14 observational prospective studies in healthy adults, reporting the association between sodium intake and excretion or reduction and CVD incidence. Validated by cohort studies, recommended sodium consumption levels (< 1.5-2 gram per day) are still relevant for the prevention of CVD in adults. We discussed the findings and policy initiatives implemented in Israel. Such initiatives included voluntary and mandatory food labeling, and culturally tailored educational programs. The Ministry of Health in Israel initiated a salt reduction policy in recent years-aimed for the future of the industry as well as the population.

Mushroom alcohol(1-octen-3-ol)and other 7 aroma compounds selected from Chinese dry-cured hams can enhance saltiness perception

Reducing NaCl content in food while maintaining acceptability poses a significant challenge. Odor-induced saltiness enhancement (OISE) emerges as a promising solution. This study utilized gas chromatography-olfactory (GC-O) in conjunction with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) to identify 37 key volatile compounds in three representative Chinese dry-cured hams. These compounds had an odor activity value (OAV) of ≥1 or a modification frequency (MF) of ≥30%. Subsequently, quantitative descriptive analysis (QDA) identified eight odorants associated with saltiness. These included 1-octen-3-ol, nonanal, heptanal, 2-methylbutanal, 3-methyl-butanal, benzaldehyde, octanal, and 2,6-dimethylpyrazine. Remarkably, these odorants significantly intensified saltiness (P < 0.05) when added to a low-concentration NaCl solution (0.3%), compared to zero or high concentrations (0.75% and 0.8%). As a result, traditional Chinese salty meat products offer a promising source of odorants for enhancing saltiness, compensating for reduced NaCl content through OISE.

Initiatives to Reduce the Content of Sodium in Food Products and Meals and Improve the Population's Health

Table salt is the main source of sodium (Na) in the human diet. Excessive supply of Na in a diet is strongly linked to many non-communicable human diseases, such as hypertension, obesity and stomach cancer. The World Health Organization recommends that daily intake of salt in adult diets should be kept below 5 g/person/day, which corresponds to 2 g Na/person/day. However, on average, adults consume about 9-10 g/person/day, and children and young people about 7-8 g/person/day. Initiatives to reduce salt intake include modifications of food composition in collaboration with the food industry, education of consumers, salt marking on foodstuff labels and taxation of salt. A need also exists to educate society so that they choose low-sodium products. In view of the food technology and amount of salt intake, the most important and the easiest change to make is to reduce the content of salt in baked goods. This paper analyses the results of surveys regarding strategies to reduce salt content in food products and considers multifaceted initiatives to reduce salt intake as a possible efficient method of improving the population's health status.

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

Microbiological Safety and Shelf-Life of Low-Salt Meat Products-A Review

Salt is widely employed in different foods, especially in meat products, due to its very diverse and extended functionality. However, the high intake of sodium chloride in human diet has been under consideration for the last years, because it is related to serious health problems. The meat-processing industry and research institutions are evaluating different strategies to overcome the elevated salt concentrations in products without a quality reduction. Several properties could be directly or indirectly affected by a sodium chloride decrease. Among them, microbial stability could be shifted towards pathogen growth, posing a serious public health threat. Nonetheless, the majority of the literature available focuses attention on the sensorial and technological challenges that salt reduction implies. Thereafter, the need to discuss the consequences for shelf-life and microbial safety should be considered. Hence, this review aims to merge all the available knowledge regarding salt reduction in meat products, providing an assessment on how to obtain low salt products that are sensorily accepted by the consumer, technologically feasible from the perspective of the industry, and, in particular, safe with respect to microbial stability.

Application of a salt substitute in bitter taste suppression and toward better acceptance of cruciferous vegetables in diet

The addition of table salt has been reported to enable better acceptance when consuming the least preferred vegetables belonging to the Cruciferae family. Considering the adverse effect of excessive table salt intake on incidence of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases, it is essential to explore an alternative healthier option for better acceptance and to encourage consumption of these vegetables. In this study, 261 adult participants were evaluated for their preferences toward basic tastes and food as well as sensory evaluation of a meal prepared from cruciferous vegetables with the addition of two different salts, sodium chloride and salt substitute containing a blend of potassium and sodium salts. A general questionnaire was used to assess taste and food preferences, while the Cruciferous Vegetable Food Frequency Questionnaire (CVFFQ) was used for vegetable intake assessment. The Labeled Magnitude Scale (LMS), Just About Right (JAR) scale, and several hedonic scales were used to determine taster status and sensory evaluation. The results show that a low concentration of the salt substitute did not impact bitterness suppression but did result in higher preference of the cruciferous vegetable meal. Although, subjects self-reported to have salty taste preferences were more sensitive to bitter taste, they did not perceive samples as less salty and less acceptable than subjects with lower sensitivity. The results show the necessity for further examination of the effectiveness of different concentrations of the assessed salt substitute in suppressing perceived bitterness of cruciferous vegetables and regarding their overall acceptance for inclusion in diets.

Barriers, Enablers, and Perceptions on Dietary Salt Reduction in the Out-of-Home Sectors: A Scoping Review

In this review, we have investigated the perceptions, barriers, and enabling factors that were responsible for a dietary salt reduction in the out-of-home sectors. For this purpose, we examined different knowledge databases such as Google Scholar, Ebscohost, MEDLINE (PubMed), Ovid, and Cochrane Library for research articles from September to December 2020. The inclusion criteria for the research articles were that they had to be published in English and had to be a qualitative or quantitative study that was conducted after 2010. These studies also had to report the various enablers, barriers, and perceptions regarding salt reduction in the out-of-home sectors. After implementing the inclusion criteria, we successfully screened a total of 440 studies, out of which 65 articles fulfilled all the criteria. The perceived barriers that hindered salt reduction among the out-of-home sectors included lack of menu and food variabilities, loss of sales due to salt reduction, lack of technical skills for implementing the salt reduction processes for cooking or reformulation, and an absence of environmental and systemic support for reducing the salt concentration. Furthermore, the enablers for salt reduction included the intervention programs, easy accessibility to salt substitutes, salt intake measurement, educational availability, and a gradual reduction in the salt levels. With regards to the behavior or perceptions, the effect of organizational and individual characteristics on their salt intake were reported. The majority of the people were not aware of their salt intake or the effect of salt on their health. These people also believed that low salt food was recognized as tasteless. In conclusion, the enablers, barriers, and perceptions regarding salt reduction in the out-of-home sectors were multifaceted. Therefore, for the implementation of the strategies, policies, and initiatives for addressing the barriers, the policymakers need to encourage a multisectoral collaboration for reducing the salt intake in the population.

Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool "DYNAMO-HIA", this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.

Equity impacts of interventions to increase physical activity among older adults: a quantitative health impact assessment

BACKGROUND

Behavioural interventions may increase social inequalities in health. This study aimed to project the equity impact of physical activity interventions that have differential effectiveness across education groups on the long-term health inequalities by education and gender among older adults in Germany.

METHODS

We created six intervention scenarios targeting the elderly population: Scenarios #1-#4 applied realistic intervention effects that varied by education (low, medium high). Under scenario #5, all older adults adapted the physical activity pattern of those with a high education. Under scenario #6, all increased their physical activity level to the recommended 300 min weekly. The number of incident ischemic heart disease, stroke and diabetes cases as well as deaths from all causes under each of these six intervention scenarios was simulated for males and females over a 10-year projection period using the DYNAMO-HIA tool. Results were compared against a reference-scenario with unchanged physical activity.

RESULTS

Under scenarios #1-#4, approximately 3589-5829 incident disease cases and 6248-10,320 deaths could be avoided among males over a 10-year projection period, as well as 4381-7163 disease cases and 6914-12,605 deaths among females. The highest reduction for males would be achieved under scenario #4, under which the intervention is most effective for those with a high education level. Scenario #4 realizes 2.7 and 2.4% of the prevented disease cases and deaths observed under scenario #6, while increasing inequalities between education groups. In females, the highest reduction would be achieved under scenario #3, under which the intervention is most effective amongst those with low levels of education. This scenario realizes 2.7 and 2.9% of the prevented disease cases and deaths under scenario #6, while decreasing inequalities between education groups. Under scenario #5, approximately 31,687 incident disease cases and 59,068 deaths could be prevented among males over a 10-year projection period, as well as 59,173 incident disease cases and 121,689 deaths among females. This translates to 14.4 and 22.2% of the prevented diseases cases among males and females under scenario #6, and 13.7 and 27.7% of the prevented deaths under scenario #6.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows how the overall population health impact varies depending on how the intervention-induced physical activity change differs across education groups. For decision-makers, both the assessment of health impacts overall as well as within a population is relevant as interventions with the greatest population health gain might be accompanied by an unintended increase in health inequalities.

To what extent could cardiovascular diseases be reduced if Germany applied fiscal policies to increase fruit and vegetable consumption? A quantitative health impact assessment

Objective:

This study aimed to dynamically model and quantify expected health effects of four scenarios: (i) a reference scenario with an unchanged fruit and vegetable intake, (ii) the removal of value-added tax (VAT) on fruits and vegetables, (iii) the implementation of a 20 % subsidy on fruits and vegetables and (iv) a guideline scenario with a population-wide fruit and vegetable intake of five portions per day.

Design:

Baseline fruit and vegetable intake data was derived from the GEDA 2012 study. We used price elasticities for Germany to calculate the change in fruit and vegetable consumption under the zero VAT and the 20 % subsidy scenario. All scenarios were modelled over a 10-year projection period using DYNAMO-HIA.

Setting:

Germany.

Participants:

A projected real-life population.

Results:

Cumulated over the 10-year projection period, an estimated 4450 incident ischaemic heart disease (IHD) cases, 7010 stroke cases and 13 960 deaths would be prevented under the zero VAT scenario. Under the 20 % subsidy scenario, 17 990 incident IHD cases, 27 390 stroke cases and 54 880 deaths would be averted. Although this corresponds to only a fraction of the incidents that would occur under the reference scenario, the averted cases translate to 2 % (for the zero VAT scenario) and 9 % (for the 20 % subsidy scenario) of IHD, stroke and death cases that would be prevented if the whole population consumed the recommended five portions of fruits and vegetables per day.

Conclusions:

Fiscal policies on fruits and vegetables provide a non-negligible step towards the removal of the health burden induced by low fruit and vegetable intake.

Sodium Intake and Target Organ Damage in Hypertension-An Update about the Role of a Real Villain

Salt intake is too high for safety nowadays. The main active ion in salt is sodium. The vast majority of scientific evidence points out the importance of sodium restriction for decreasing cardiovascular risk. International Guidelines recommend a large reduction in sodium consumption to help reduce blood pressure, organ damage, and cardiovascular risk. Regulatory authorities across the globe suggest a general restriction of sodium intake to prevent cardiovascular diseases. In spite of this seemingly unanimous consensus, some researchers claim to have evidence of the unhealthy effects of a reduction of sodium intake, and have data to support their claims. Evidence is against dissenting scientists, because prospective, observational, and basic research studies indicate that sodium is the real villain: actual sodium consumption around the globe is far higher than the safe range. Sodium intake is directly related to increased blood pressure, and independently to the enlargement of cardiac mass, with a possible independent role in inducing left ventricular hypertrophy. This may represent the basis of myocardial ischemia, congestive heart failure, and cardiac mortality. Although debated, a high sodium intake may induce initial renal damage and progression in both hypertensive and normotensive subjects. Conversely, there is general agreement about the adverse role of sodium in cerebrovascular disease. These factors point to the possible main role of sodium intake in target organ damage and cardiovascular events including mortality. This review will endeavor to outline the existing evidence.

Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086–7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population.

Potential impact of a modest reduction in salt intake on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease burden and premature mortality: a modelling study

Objective

To assess the potential impact of reduction in salt intake on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality in Cameroon.

Methods

Using a multicohort proportional multistate life table model with Markov process, we modelled the impact of WHO's recommended 30% relative reduction in population-wide sodium intake on the CVD burden for Cameroonian adults alive in 2016. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted and used to quantify uncertainty.

Results

Over the lifetime, incidence is predicted to decrease by 5.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 4.6 to 5.7) for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), 6.6% (95% UI 5.9 to 7.4) for haemorrhagic strokes, 4.8% (95% UI 4.2 to 5.4) for ischaemic strokes and 12.9% (95% UI 12.4 to 13.5) for hypertensive heart disease (HHD). Mortality over the lifetime is projected to reduce by 5.1% (95% UI 4.5 to 5.6) for IHD, by 6.9% (95% UI 6.1 to 7.7) for haemorrhagic stroke, by 4.5% (95% UI 4.0 to 5.1) for ischaemic stroke and by 13.3% (95% UI 12.9 to 13.7) for HHD. About 776 400 (95% UI 712 600 to 841 200) health-adjusted life years could be gained, and life expectancy might increase by 0.23 years and 0.20 years for men and women, respectively. A projected 16.8% change (reduction) between 2016 and 2030 in probability of premature mortality due to CVD would occur if population salt reduction recommended by WHO is attained.

Conclusion

Achieving the 30% reduction in sodium intake recommended by WHO could considerably decrease the burden of CVD. Targeting blood pressure via decreasing population salt intake could translate in significant reductions in premature CVD mortality in Cameroon by 2030.

What are the potential preventive population-health effects of a tax on processed meat? A quantitative health impact assessment for Germany

The International Agency for Research on Cancer considers processed meat to be carcinogenic. Further, processed meat is associated with diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all-cause mortality. We aimed to assess health gains of four processed meat taxation scenarios in comparison to the reference and a minimum-risk-exposure-scenario. To estimate the shift in processed meat intake following respective taxes, we calculated price elasticities for processed meat. DYNAMO-HIA was used to dynamically project policy-attributable differences in the prevalence of diseases and deaths. In projection year 10, an extra 9300 males and 4500 females would be alive under the lowest tax scenario (4% tax), compared to the reference scenario. Prevalent IHD, diabetes and colorectal cancer cases in males would be 8400, 9500 and 500 lower, respectively, and there would be 4600, 7800 and 300 less cases in females. Of the respective death and disease reduction that would be achieved under the minimum-risk-exposure-scenario, the lowest tax reaches 2.84% (colorectal cancer in males) to 6.02% (diabetes in females). Under the highest tax scenario (33.3% tax), an extra 76,700 males and 37,100 females would be alive, compared to the reference scenario. Prevalent IHD, diabetes and colorectal cancer cases would be 70,800, 77,900 and 4900 lower in males and 29,900, 48,900 and 2300 lower in females, which represents 27.84% (colorectal cancer in males) to 37.76% (diabetes in females) of the maximal preventable death and disease burden. Further research needs to examine to what extent these health benefits are outweighed by a simultaneous tax-induced decrease in fish intake.

Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction

We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key features, their underlying assumptions and input data. Next, assumptions and input data were varied one by one in a default approach (the DYNAMO-HIA model) to examine how it influences the estimated health impact. Major differences in outcome were related to the size and shape of the dose-response relation between salt and blood pressure and blood pressure and disease. Modifying the effect sizes in the salt to health association resulted in the largest change in health impact estimates (33% lower), whereas other changes had less influence. Differences in health impact assessment model structure and input data may affect the health impact estimate. Therefore, clearly defined assumptions and transparent reporting for different models is crucial. However, the estimated impact of salt reduction was substantial in all of the models used, emphasizing the need for public health actions.

Effect of Salt Reduction on Consumer Acceptance and Sensory Quality of Food

Reducing salt (NaCl) intake is an important public health target. The food industry and catering services are searching for means to reduce the salt content in their products. This review focuses on options for salt reduction in foods and the sensory evaluation of salt-reduced foods. Simple salt reduction, mineral salts and flavor enhancers/modifiers (e.g., umami compounds) are common options for salt reduction. In addition, the modification of food texture and odor-taste interactions may contribute to enhanced salty taste perception. Maintaining consumer acceptance of the products is a challenge, and recent examples of the consumer perception of salt-reduced foods are presented.

Salt Appetite, and the Influence of Opioids

Due to the biological importance of sodium and its relative scarcity within many natural environments, 'salt appetite' has evolved whereby dietary salt is highly sought after and palatable when tasted. In addition to peripheral responses, salt depletion is detected within the brain via circumventricular organs and 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 (HSD2) neurons to increase salt appetite. Salt appetite is comprised of two main components. One component is the incentive salience or motivation for salt (i.e. how much salt is 'wanted'). Incentive salience is dynamic and largely depends on internal homeostatic conditions in combination with the detection of relevant cues. It involves the mesolimbic system and structures such as the central amygdala, and opioid signalling within these regions can increase salt intake in rodents. A second key feature is the hedonic palatability of salt (i.e. how much it is 'liked') when it is tasted. After detection on the tongue, gustatory information passes through the brainstem nucleus of the solitary tract and thalamus, before being consciously detected within the gustatory cerebral cortex. The positive or negative hedonic value of this stimulus is also dynamic, and is encoded by a network including the nucleus accumbens, ventral pallidum, and lateral parabrachial nucleus. Opioid signalling within these areas can alter salt intake, and 'liking'. The overconsumption of dietary salt likely contributes to hypertension and associated diseases, and hence further characterising the role played by opioid signalling has important implications for human health.

Interaction between Single Nucleotide Polymorphism and Urinary Sodium, Potassium, and Sodium-Potassium Ratio on the Risk of Hypertension in Korean Adults

Hypertension is a complex disease explained with diverse factors including environmental factors and genetic factors. The objectives of this study were to determine the interaction effects between gene variants and 24 h estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and sodium-potassium excretion ratios on the risk of hypertension. A total of 8839 participants were included in the genome-wide association study (GWAS) to find genetic factors associated with hypertension. Tanaka and Kawasaki formulas were applied to estimate 24 h urinary sodium and potassium excretion. A total of 4414 participants were included in interaction analyses to identify the interaction effects of gene variants according to 24 h estimated urinary factors on the risk of hypertension. CSK rs1378942 and CSK-MIR4513 rs3784789 were significantly modified by urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio. In addition, MKLN rs1643270 with urinary potassium excretion, LOC101929750 rs7554672 with urinary sodium and potassium excretion, and TENM4 rs10466739 with urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio showed significant interaction effects. The present study results indicated that the mutant alleles of CSK rs1378942 and CSK-MIR4513 rs3784789 had the strongest protective effects against hypertension in the middle group of 24 h estimated urinary sodium-potassium excretion ratio. Further studies are needed to replicate these analyses in other populations.

Estimated reductions in cardiovascular and gastric cancer disease burden through salt policies in England: an IMPACTNCD microsimulation study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact and equity of existing and potential UK salt reduction policies on primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) in England.

DESIGN

A microsimulation study of a close-to-reality synthetic population. In the first period, 2003-2015, we compared the impact of current policy against a counterfactual 'no intervention' scenario, which assumed salt consumption persisted at 2003 levels. For 2016-2030, we assumed additional legislative policies could achieve a steeper salt decline and we compared this against the counterfactual scenario that the downward trend in salt consumption observed between 2001 and 2011 would continue up to 2030.

SETTING

Synthetic population with similar characteristics to the non-institutionalised population of England.

PARTICIPANTS

Synthetic individuals with traits informed by the Health Survey for England.

MAIN MEASURE

CVD and GCa cases and deaths prevented or postponed, stratified by fifths of socioeconomic status using the Index of Multiple Deprivation.

RESULTS

Since 2003, current salt policies have prevented or postponed ∼52 000 CVD cases (IQR: 34 000-76 000) and 10 000 CVD deaths (IQR: 3000-17 000). In addition, the current policies have prevented ∼5000 new cases of GCa (IQR: 2000-7000) resulting in about 2000 fewer deaths (IQR: 0-4000). This policy did not reduce socioeconomic inequalities in CVD, and likely increased inequalities in GCa. Additional legislative policies from 2016 could further prevent or postpone ∼19 000 CVD cases (IQR: 8000-30 000) and 3600 deaths by 2030 (IQR: -400-8100) and may reduce inequalities. Similarly for GCa, 1200 cases (IQR: -200-3000) and 700 deaths (IQR: -900-2300) could be prevented or postponed with a neutral impact on inequalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Current salt reduction policies are powerfully effective in reducing the CVD and GCa burdens overall but fail to reduce the inequalities involved. Additional structural policies could achieve further, more equitable health benefits.

Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking: a quantitative health impact assessment

BACKGROUND

Influencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking is an European Union (EU) wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify without dynamic population health models.

METHODS

For eleven countries-approx. 80 % of the EU-27 population-we used evidence from the publicly available DYNAMO-HIA data-set. For each country the age- and sex-specific risk-factor prevalence and the incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of nine chronic diseases are utilized; including the corresponding relative risks linking risk-factor exposure causally to disease incidence and all-cause mortality. Applying the DYNAMO-HIA tool, we dynamically project the country-wise potential health gains and losses using feasible, i.e. observed elsewhere, risk-factor prevalence rates as benchmarks. The effects of the "worst practice", "best practice", and the currently observed risk-factor prevalence on population health are quantified and expected changes in life expectancy, morbidity-free life years, disease cases, and cumulative mortality are reported.

RESULTS

Applying the best practice smoking prevalence yields the largest gains in life expectancy with 0.4 years for males and 0.3 year for females (approx. 332,950 and 274,200 deaths postponed, respectively) while the worst practice smoking prevalence also leads to the largest losses with 0.7 years for males and 0.9 year for females (approx. 609,400 and 710,550 lives lost, respectively). Comparing morbidity-free life years, the best practice smoking prevalence shows the highest gains for males with 0.4 years (342,800 less disease cases), whereas for females the best practice BMI prevalence yields the largest gains with 0.7 years (1,075,200 less disease cases).

CONCLUSION

Smoking is still the risk-factor with the largest potential health gains. BMI, however, has comparatively large effects on morbidity. Future research should aim to improve knowledge of how policies can influence and shape individual and aggregated life-style-related risk-factor behavior.

Dietary Impact of Adding Potassium Chloride to Foods as a Sodium Reduction Technique

Potassium chloride is a leading reformulation technology for reducing sodium in food products. As, globally, sodium intake exceeds guidelines, this technology is beneficial; however, its potential impact on potassium intake is unknown. Therefore, a modeling study was conducted using Dutch National Food Survey data to examine the dietary impact of reformulation (n = 2106). Product-specific sodium criteria, to enable a maximum daily sodium chloride intake of 5 grams/day, were applied to all foods consumed in the survey. The impact of replacing 20%, 50% and 100% of sodium chloride from each product with potassium chloride was modeled. At baseline median, potassium intake was 3334 mg/day. An increase in the median intake of potassium of 453 mg/day was seen when a 20% replacement was applied, 674 mg/day with a 50% replacement scenario and 733 mg/day with a 100% replacement scenario. Reformulation had the largest impact on: bread, processed fruit and vegetables, snacks and processed meat. Replacement of sodium chloride by potassium chloride, particularly in key contributing product groups, would result in better compliance to potassium intake guidelines (3510 mg/day). Moreover, it could be considered safe for the general adult population, as intake remains compliant with EFSA guidelines. Based on current modeling potassium chloride presents as a valuable, safe replacer for sodium chloride in food products.

Health Impacts of Increased Physical Activity from Changes in Transportation Infrastructure: Quantitative Estimates for Three Communities

Recently, two quantitative tools have emerged for predicting the health impacts of projects that change population physical activity: the Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) and Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO-HIA). HEAT has been used to support health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, but DYNAMO-HIA has not been previously employed for this purpose nor have the two tools been compared. To demonstrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA for supporting health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, we employed the model in three communities (urban, suburban, and rural) in North Carolina. We also compared DYNAMO-HIA and HEAT predictions in the urban community. Using DYNAMO-HIA, we estimated benefit-cost ratios of 20.2 (95% C.I.: 8.7–30.6), 0.6 (0.3–0.9), and 4.7 (2.1–7.1) for the urban, suburban, and rural projects, respectively. For a 40-year time period, the HEAT predictions of deaths avoided by the urban infrastructure project were three times as high as DYNAMO-HIA's predictions due to HEAT's inability to account for changing population health characteristics over time. Quantitative health impact assessment coupled with economic valuation is a powerful tool for integrating health considerations into transportation decision-making. However, to avoid overestimating benefits, such quantitative HIAs should use dynamic, rather than static, approaches.