Modeling the Health and Economic Burden of Hepatitis C Virus in Switzerland

Modelling the microelimination of chronic hepatitis C in the canton of Bern, Switzerland: Reaching the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals despite the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic

Aims of the study

Since 2014, the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy (SHS) has targeted the elimination of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in Switzerland. The epidemiology of HCV is diverse across Swiss cantons, therefore cantonal-level screening and treatment strategies should be developed. This study aimed to identify scenarios to achieve HCV elimination in the canton of Bern by 2030.

Methods

A preexisting Markov disease burden model was populated with data for Bern, and used to forecast the current and future prevalence of HCV, annual liver-related deaths (LRDs), and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis until 2030. Scenarios were developed to assess the current standard of care and potential long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the HCV infected population. Additionally, potential scenarios for achieving the WHO 2030 targets and the SHS 2025 and 2030 targets (reduction of new cases of HCV, HCV-related mortality and viremic HCV cases) were identified.

Results

In 2019, there were an estimated 4,600 (95% UI: 3,330–4,940) viremic infections in the canton of Bern and 57% (n = 2,600) of viremic cases were diagnosed. This modelling forecasted a 10% increase in LRDs (28 in 2020 to 31 in 2030) with the current standard of care and a 50% increase in LRDs in a scenario assuming long-term delays. To achieve the WHO and SHS targets, the canton of Bern needs to increase the annual number of patients diagnosed (from 90 in 2019 to 250 per year in 2022–2024 [WHO], or 500 per year in 2022–2025 [SHS]) and treated (from 130 in 2019 to 340 per year in 2022–2024 [WHO] or 670 per year in 2022–2025 [SHS]).

Conclusions

The SHS goals and the WHO targets for HCV elimination can be achieved in the Swiss canton of Bern by 2030; however, not at the current pace of screening, linkage to care and treatment.

How to set the agenda for hepatitis C: a theory-driven policy analysis

Background

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) represents a significant public health burden. When new HCV drugs arrived in 2014, the disease became curable, but the administration remained reluctant to address this public health issue. However, the Swiss parliament recently decided to integrate HCV into the next national HIV programme. This study investigates how HCV came onto the political agenda in Switzerland and which actors and factors were influential in this process.

Methods

The data collection is based on document analysis and semi-structured interviews. The transcripts were coded by deriving the codes from the data in terms of content followed by the application of the multiple streams framework.

Results

Health authorities, unlike experts, did not see the HCV epidemic as a relevant public health threat. Due to cost-related restriction of access to treatment, the potential of the new HCV drugs could not be fully exploited. The administration’s position proved difficult to change, despite evidence to the contrary. For 30 years, authorities set the agenda in health policy regarding HCV, unheeded by politicians. But recently, a policy entrepreneur has for the first time successfully managed to put HCV on the political agenda. After years of education and lobbying, it used the window of opportunity in the form of the new edition of the national HIV programme. The parliamentary decision to include HCV in this programme broke the long-standing primacy of the administration in the field of HCV, which had long prevented a more active handling of the HCV field.

Conclusions

The case of HCV in Switzerland shows that evidence alone is not enough to bring about health policy changes. A policy entrepreneur is needed who overcomes resistance, brings together the three streams—problem, policy and political—and exploits the window of opportunity at the right time. To be successful, the policy entrepreneur must identify the indicators that map the problem, network and convince decision-makers, recognize policy windows and use them—as has been the case with HCV in Switzerland.

HCV disease burden and population segments in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Switzerland has made strides towards hepatitis C virus elimination, but as of 2019, elimination was not guaranteed. However, political interest in viral hepatitis has been increasing. We sought to develop a better understanding of Switzerland's progress towards HCV elimination and the profile of remaining HCV-RNA-positive patients.

METHODS

A previously described Markov model was updated with recent diagnosis and treatment data and run to generate new forecasts for HCV disease burden. Two scenarios were developed to evaluate HCV morbidity and mortality under the status quo and a scenario that achieves the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy Elimination targets. Next, an analysis was conducted to identify population segments bearing a high burden of disease, where future elimination efforts could be directed.

RESULTS

At the beginning of 2020, an estimated 32 100 viremic infections remained in Switzerland (0.37% viremic prevalence). Adult (≥18 years of age) permanent residents born abroad represented the largest subpopulation, accounting for 56% of HCV infections. Thirteen countries accounted for ≥60% of viremic infections amongst permanent residents born abroad, with most people currently residing in Zurich, Vaud, Geneva, Bern, Aargau and Ticino. Amongst Swiss-born HCV-RNA-positive persons, two-thirds had a history of IDU, corresponding to 33% of total infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In Switzerland, extra efforts for diagnosis and linkage to care are warranted in foreign-born populations and people with a history of drug use. Population-level measures (eg increasing the number of providers, increase screening) can identify patients who may have otherwise fallen through the gaps or avoided care because of stigma.

The Netherlands Is on Track to Meet the World Health Organization Hepatitis C Elimination Targets by 2030

Background: The Netherlands strives for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, in accordance with the World Health Organization targets. An accurate estimate when HCV elimination will be reached is elusive. We have embarked on a nationwide HCV elimination project (CELINE) that allowed us to harvest detailed data on the Dutch HCV epidemic. This study aims to provide a well-supported timeline towards HCV elimination in The Netherlands. Methods: A previously published Markov model was used, adopting published data and unpublished CELINE project data. Two main scenarios were devised. In the Status Quo scenario, 2020 diagnosis and treatment levels remained constant in subsequent years. In the Gradual Decline scenario, an annual decrease of 10% in both diagnoses and treatments was implemented, starting in 2020. WHO incidence target was disregarded, due to low HCV incidence in The Netherlands (≤5 per 100,000). Results: Following the Status Quo and Gradual Decline scenarios, The Netherlands would meet WHO’s elimination targets by 2027 and 2032, respectively. From 2015 to 2030, liver-related mortality would be reduced by 97% in the Status Quo and 93% in the Gradual Decline scenario. Compared to the Status Quo scenario, the Gradual Decline scenario would result in 12 excess cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 18 excess cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 20 excess cases of liver-related death from 2020–2030. Conclusions: The Netherlands is on track to reach HCV elimination by 2030. However, it is vital that HCV elimination remains high on the agenda to ensure adequate numbers of patients are being diagnosed and treated.

Assessment of Treatment Strategies to Achieve Hepatitis C Elimination in Canada Using a Validated Model

Importance

Achievement of the World Health Organization (WHO) target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 will require an increase in key services, including harm reduction, HCV screening, and HCV treatment initiatives in member countries. These data are not available for Canada but are important for informing a national HCV elimination strategy.

Objective

To use a decision analytical model to explore the association of different treatment strategies with HCV epidemiology and HCV-associated mortality in Canada and to assess the levels of service increase needed to meet the WHO elimination targets by 2030.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Study participants in this decision analytical model included individuals with hepatitis C virus infection in Canada. Five HCV treatment scenarios (optimistic, very aggressive, aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease) were applied using a previously validated Markov-type mathematical model. The optimistic and very aggressive treatment scenarios modeled a sustained annual treatment of 10 200 persons and 14 000 persons, respectively, from 2018 to 2030. The aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease scenarios assessed decreases in treatment uptake from 14 000 persons to 10 000 persons per year, 12 000 persons to 8500 persons per year, and 12 000 persons to 4500 persons per year, respectively, between 2018 and 2030.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and HCV-associated health outcomes were assessed for each of the 5 treatment scenarios with the goal of identifying strategies to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Results

An estimated mean 180 142 persons (95% CI, 122 786-196 862 persons) in Canada had chronic HCV infection at the end of 2017. The optimistic and gradual decrease scenarios estimated a decrease in HCV prevalence from 180 142 persons to 37 246 persons and 37 721 persons, respectively, by 2030. Relative to 2015, this decrease in HCV prevalence was associated with 74%, 69%, and 69% reductions in the prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality, respectively, leading to HCV elimination by 2030. More aggressive treatment uptake (very aggressive scenario) could result in goal achievement up to 3 years earlier than 2030, although a rapid decrease in the initiation of treatment (rapid decrease scenario) would preclude Canada from reaching the HCV elimination goal by 2030.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study findings suggest that Canada could meet the WHO goals for HCV elimination by 2030 by sustaining the current national HCV treatment rate during the next decade. This target will not be achieved if treatment uptake is allowed to decrease rapidly.

Modelling the impact of different testing strategies for HCV infection in Switzerland

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of liver disease. Since symptoms of chronic liver disease usually appear only late in the course of the disease, infected individuals may remain undiagnosed until advanced disease has developed. We aimed to investigate which screening strategies would be most effective to detect individuals unaware of their infection.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model for HCV disease progression and compared the current practice of HCV testing in Switzerland with the following screening strategies: intensive screening of active injection drug users (IDU), screening of former IDU, screening of individuals originating from countries with high HCV prevalence, screening of individuals born 1951-1985 (birth-cohort) and universal screening. All screening interventions were considered in addition to a baseline scenario that reflected the current practice of HCV testing.

RESULTS

Within the first 4 years (2018-2021), every year, on average 650 cases were diagnosed in the baseline scenario, 660 with intensified IDU screening, 760 with former IDU screening, 830 with origin-based screening, 1420 with birth-cohort screening and 1940 with universal screening. No difference in liver-related mortality and incidence of end-stage liver disease between the screening scenarios was observed.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that only large-scale screening of the general population could substantially accelerate the rate of HCV diagnosis and treatment in Switzerland and other countries with similar epidemics. However, this implies screening of a large population with low prevalence, and may trigger considerable numbers of false-positive and borderline test results.

Progress toward implementing the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy: Is HCV elimination possible by 2030?

Catalyzed by the concerns over the growing public health and economic burden of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Switzerland, a diverse group of experts and patient representatives came together in 2014 to develop the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy, setting targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis in Switzerland by 2030. Previous studies have reported the estimated number of chronic HCV infections and forecasted burden of disease given different intervention strategies. However, given new prevalence data by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, which decreased total infections by about half, an updated analysis is warranted. We aimed to provide an updated viremic prevalence estimate for Switzerland and evaluate the impact on forecasted liver related morbidity and mortality of an ‘inaction’ scenario and intervention scenarios to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis and Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030. A Markov disease-progression model was used to calculate the present and future burden of HCV infection by disease stage according to these different strategies. In 2017, there were an estimated 36,800 (95% UI: 26,900–39,200) viremic infections in Switzerland. Given the current standard of care, total viremic infections are expected to decline by 45%, while cases of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths will decrease by 20%. If treatment and diagnosis efforts were to cease in 2018, late stage HCV-related morbidity and mortality would increase by 90–100% by 2030. Increasing treatment and diagnosis to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy or Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030, will reduce the number of chronic infections to less than 13,000 and 4,000, respectively. Although the HCV epidemic is declining in Switzerland, efforts to expand diagnosis and treatment are needed to achieve elimination by 2030.

The comprehensive outcomes of hepatitis C virus infection: A multi-faceted chronic disease

Treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been revolutionized with the introduction of pangenotypic, interferon- and ribavirin-free regimens associated with high cure rates and a low side effect profile. Additionally, there is evidence that HCV cure reduces HCV complications, improves patient-reported outcomes and is cost-saving in most western countries in the long term. This is a review of the comprehensive burden of HCV and the value of eliminating HCV infection. With the introduction of the interferon-free all-oral, once a day pill treatment regimen for the cure of HCV, the potential to eliminate HCV by 2030 has become a possibility for some regions of the world. Nevertheless, there are barriers to screening, linkage to care, and treatment in many countries that must be overcome in order to reach this goal. In conclusion, globally, work must continue to ensure national policies are in place to support screening, linkage to care and affordable treatment in order to eliminate HCV.

Prediction of Health Utility Scores in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Using the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire-Hepatitis C Version (CLDQ-HCV)

BACKGROUND

Preference-based health utilities are used in economic analyses of disease burden and health care interventions. When specifically designed instruments cannot be applied, mapping algorithms for non-preference-based instruments can be used for prediction of health utility scores.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a mapping algorithm for the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire-Hepatitis C Version (CLDQ-HCV), the hepatitis C virus-specific quality-of-life instrument.

METHODS

We used a sample of patients with HCV who completed the short form 36 health survey and the CLDQ-HCV in clinical trials; six-dimensional health state short form (SF-6D) utilities were derived from the 36-item short form health survey. Regression models with components of the CLDQ-HCV being predictors and SF-6D being the outcome were developed and tested in an independent testing set and in clinically significant subpopulations.

RESULTS

The sample of 34,822 records was split (4:1) into training and testing set. Simple mixed models had a root mean square error up to 0.088; predicted and observed utilities were highly correlated (Pearson correlation 0.81-0.82) although predicted utilities were underestimated in the range closest to perfect scores. Generalized linear models had better average accuracy (root mean square error up to 0.0839; correlations up to 0.844) and significantly better accuracy in the highest values (median error up to 0.065). Accuracy in the independent testing set was nearly identical, and so was accuracy in patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis; the errors of group means were less than 0.015.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of linear models for mapping domains or items of CLDQ-HCV to SF-6D health utilities have been developed. The models have excellent accuracy at the group level. Predicted health utility scores can be used in further economic analyses involving patients with HCV.

Treatment of early stage chronic hepatitis C virus infection

INTRODUCTION

Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) with direct acting antivirals (DAAs) is able to achieve the cure of infection in almost the totality of patients, independently of the characteristics of the individual and the virus, using short treatment schedules, and without the need of ribavirin. The high cost of DAAs is the main limiting factor for universal treatment of HCV. However, there is a strong evidence that treatment of infection at the early stage of disease may be the most rewarding approach. Areas covered: This review evaluates the aspects underlying the benefit of treating chronic HCV infection at the early stage of disease. It outlines the considerations that have to be taken into account when planning treatment in patients with HCV and minimal liver disease, assessing the positive reflex of viral eradication on several HCV-associated extra-hepatic conditions such as the risk of lymphoma, insulin-resistance and glycaemic control, and renal function. Lastly, it also covers the improvement of patients' quality of life and the pharmaco-economic aspects associated with early treatment. Expert commentary: Treatment of patients with HCV and minimal liver disease is associated with a beneficial, pleiotropic effect of viral eradication that goes beyond the simplistic consideration of the improvement in liver disease-related outcomes.

Model projections on the impact of HCV treatment in the prevention of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Europe

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Prevention of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) is critical for eliminating HCV in Europe. We estimated the impact of current and scaled-up HCV treatment with and without scaling up opioid substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) across Europe over the next 10 years.

METHODS

We collected data on PWID HCV treatment rates, PWID prevalence, HCV prevalence, OST, and NSP coverage from 11 European settings. We parameterised an HCV transmission model to setting-specific data that project chronic HCV prevalence and incidence among PWID.

RESULTS

At baseline, chronic HCV prevalence varied from <25% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) to >55% (Finland/Sweden), and <2% (Amsterdam/Hamburg/Norway/Denmark/Sweden) to 5% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) of chronically infected PWID were treated annually. The current treatment rates using new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) may achieve observable reductions in chronic prevalence (38-63%) in 10 years in Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Amsterdam. Doubling the HCV treatment rates will reduce prevalence in other sites (12-24%; Belgium/Denmark/Hamburg/Norway/Scotland), but is unlikely to reduce prevalence in Sweden and Finland. Scaling-up OST and NSP to 80% coverage with current treatment rates using DAAs could achieve observable reductions in HCV prevalence (18-79%) in all sites. Using DAAs, Slovenia and Amsterdam are projected to reduce incidence to 2 per 100 person years or less in 10 years. Moderate to substantial increases in the current treatment rates are required to achieve the same impact elsewhere, from 1.4 to 3 times (Czech Republic and France), 5-17 times (France, Scotland, Hamburg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and Sweden), to 200 times (Finland). Scaling-up OST and NSP coverage to 80% in all sites reduces treatment scale-up needed by 20-80%.

CONCLUSIONS

The scale-up of HCV treatment and other interventions is needed in most settings to minimise HCV transmission among PWID in Europe.

LAY SUMMARY

Measuring the amount of HCV in the population of PWID is uncertain. To reduce HCV infection to minimal levels in Europe will require scale-up of both HCV treatment and other interventions that reduce injecting risk (especially OST and provision of sterile injecting equipment).

Trends in hepatitis C-related mortality in Switzerland

In order to accurately assess the burden of hepatitis C (HCV) and develop effective interventions, we must understand the magnitude and trends of mortality related to the disease. In the United States, HCV-related mortality is continuously increasing. We have no comparable data for Switzerland and other European countries, although a modelling study predicted a similar increase. We analysed time trends (1 January 1995-31 December 2014) in HCV-specific mortality rates in the Swiss general population using the death registry of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (SFSO). We compared HCV-related mortality to HIV-related and hepatitis B (HBV)-related mortality. To determine potential under-reporting in HCV-related mortality, we probabilistically linked the SFSO data to persons who died in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS). SFSO data showed that HCV-related mortality more than doubled between 1995 and 2003, but has since stabilized at ~2.5/100 000 person-years. Since 2000, HCV-related mortality has been higher than HIV-related mortality and was about fivefold higher in 2014. HBV-related mortality remained low at ~0.5/100 000 person-years. Of 4556 persons in the SCCS, 421 have died and 86.2% could be linked to the death registry. According to the SCCS, 133 deaths were HCV-related. HCV was not mentioned on the SFSO death certificate of 45% of these (n = 60/133). In conclusion, HCV-related mortality remained constant, possibly because quality of care was high, or because of under-reporting or because mortality has not yet increased. However, HCV-related mortality is now much higher than HIV- and HBV-related mortality, and under-reporting was common.

Scenarios to manage the hepatitis C disease burden and associated economic impact of treatment in Turkey

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a significant health problem. The aim of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment and estimate its economic burden in Turkey.

METHODS

An Excel-based disease progression model was used to estimate the HCV-infected population for 2015-2030. Direct costs in US dollars (USD) including diagnostic, laboratory, and healthcare costs were provided by experts in the country. Indirect costs were estimated as lost productivity using the World Health Organization (WHO) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) metric from the Global Burden of Disease study. Three scenarios were developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment through 2030: Base 2016, Increase Treatment and SVR (where SVR is sustained virological response), and WHO Targets. Additionally, the WHO Targets scenario was assessed at three different treatment price points: 10,900 USD, 16,730 USD (base cost), and 27,285 USD.

RESULTS

Cumulative total direct and indirect costs (2015-2030) for the WHO Targets scenario were estimated to be 10.8 billion USD, or a 1.5 % increase compared with Base 2016. However, by the following decade, due to a marked decline in DALYs, cumulative direct and indirect costs were estimated to be 45 % less when compared with Base 2016. At a threshold of 9125 USD, all scenarios were cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

By implementing the WHO Targets scenario, Turkey would be able to lower HCV prevalence by 80 % and reduce the total number of liver-related deaths by >65 % by 2030. Treating HCV infection in the country is cost-effective if healthcare and indirect costs are taken into consideration.

Economic Burden of Hepatitis C Infection

The economic burden of chronic hepatitis C might exceed $10 billion annually in the United States alone. This disease has a worldwide prevalence of up to 3%, making the global burden of the disease comparably tremendous. The cost of the disease includes direct medical expenses for its hepatic and extrahepatic manifestations, and also indirect costs incurred from impaired quality of life and the loss of work productivity. Recent emergence of treatment options that are not only highly effective and safe but also costly has emphasized the need to study the disease from the economic point of view.

Access to therapy and therapy outcomes in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study: a person-centred approach

Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics are associated with delayed diagnosis and disease progression in HCV-infected persons. However, many analyses focused on single variables rather than groups defined by several variables. We used latent class analysis to study all 4488 persons enrolled in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study. Groups were identified using predefined variables at enrolment. The number of groups was selected using the Bayesian information criterion. Mortality, loss to follow-up, cirrhosis, treatment status and response to antivirals were analysed using Laplace and logistic regressions. We identified five groups and named them according to their characteristics: persons who inject drugs, male drinkers, Swiss employees, foreign employees and retirees. Two groups did not conform to common assumptions about persons with chronic hepatitis C and were already in an advanced stage of the disease at enrolment: 'male drinkers' and 'retirees' had a high proportion of cirrhosis at enrolment (15% and 16% vs <10.3%), and the shortest time to death (adjusted median time 8.7 years and 8.8 years vs >9.0). 'Male drinkers' also had high substance use, but they were well educated and were likely to be employed. This analysis may help identifying high-risk groups which may benefit from targeted interventions.

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden in Rhode Island: modelling treatment scale-up and elimination

We utilized a disease progression model to predict the number of viraemic infections, cirrhotic cases, and liver-related deaths in the state of Rhode Island (RI) under four treatment scenarios: (1) current HCV treatment paradigm (about 215 patients treated annually, Medicaid reimbursement criteria fibrosis stage ⩾F3); (2) immediate scale-up of treatment (to 430 annually) and less restrictive Medicaid reimbursement criteria (fibrosis stage ⩾F2); (3) immediate treatment scale-up and no fibrosis stage-specific Medicaid reimbursement criteria (⩾F0); (4) an 'elimination' scenario (i.e. a continued treatment scale-up needed to achieve >90% reduction in viraemic cases by 2030). Under current treatment models, the number of cirrhotic cases and liver-related deaths will plateau and peak by 2030, respectively. Treatment scale-up with ⩾F2 and ⩾F0 fibrosis stage treatment criteria could reduce the number of cirrhotic cases by 21·7% and 10·0%, and the number of liver-related deaths by 19·3% and 7·4%, respectively by 2030. To achieve a >90% reduction in viraemic cases by 2030, over 2000 persons will need to be treated annually by 2020. This strategy could reduce cirrhosis cases and liver-related deaths by 78·9% and 72·4%, respectively by 2030. Increased HCV treatment uptake is needed to substantially reduce the burden of HCV by 2030 in Rhode Island.

Modelling the impact of deferring HCV treatment on liver-related complications in HIV coinfected men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis C (HCV) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in people who live with HIV. In many countries, access to direct acting antiviral agents to treat HCV is restricted to individuals with advanced liver disease (METAVIR stage F3 or F4). Our goal was to estimate the long term impact of deferring HCV treatment for men who have sex with men (MSM) who are coinfected with HIV and often have multiple risk factors for liver disease progression.

METHODS

We developed an individual-based model of liver disease progression in HIV/HCV coinfected MSM. We estimated liver-related morbidity and mortality as well as the median time spent with replicating HCV infection when individuals were treated in liver fibrosis stages F0, F1, F2, F3 or F4 on the METAVIR scale.

RESULTS

The percentage of individuals who died of liver-related complications was 2% if treatment was initiated in F0 or F1. It increased to 3% if treatment was deferred until F2, 7% if it was deferred until F3 and 22% if deferred until F4. The median time individuals spent with replicating HCV increased from 5years if treatment was initiated in F2 to almost 15years if it was deferred until F4.

CONCLUSIONS

Deferring HCV therapy until advanced liver fibrosis is established could increase liver-related morbidity and mortality in HIV/HCV coinfected individuals, and substantially prolong the time individuals spend with a replicating HCV infection.

Urgent action to fight hepatitis C in people who inject drugs in Europe

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer, is curable in most people. Injecting drug use currently accounts for 80 % of new HCV infections with a known transmission route in the European Union (EU). HCV has generally received little attention from the public or policymakers in the EU, with major gaps in national-level strategies, action plans, guidelines and the evidence base. Specifically, people who inject drugs (PWID) are often excluded from treatment owing to various patient, healthcare provider and health system factors. All policymakers responsible for health services in EU countries should ensure that prevention, treatment, care and support interventions addressing HCV in PWID are developed and implemented. According to current best practice, PWID should have access to comprehensive, evidence-based multiprofessional harm reduction (especially opioid substitution therapy and clean needles and syringes) and support/care services based in the community and modified with community involvement to accommodate this hard-to-reach population. Other recommended components of care include vaccination against hepatitis B and other infections; peer support interventions; HIV testing, prevention and treatment; drug and alcohol services; psychological care as needed; and social support services. HCV testing should be performed regularly in PWID to identify infected persons and engage them in care. HCV-infected PWID should be considered for antiviral treatment (based on an individualised assessment and delivered within multidisciplinary care/support programmes) both to cure infected individuals and prevent onward transmission. Modelling data suggest that the HCV disease burden can only be cut substantially if antiviral treatment is scaled up together with prevention programmes. Measures should be taken to reduce stigma and discrimination against PWID at the provider and institutional levels. In conclusion, strategic action at the policy level is urgently needed to increase access to HCV prevention, testing and treatment among PWID, the group at highest risk of HCV infection. Such action has the potential to substantially reduce the number of infected persons, along with the disease burden and related care costs.

Drug Pricing Evolution in Hepatitis C

Objective

We aimed to determine the association between the stepwise increase in the sustained viral response (SVR) and Swiss and United States (US) market prices of drug regimens for treatment-naive, genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the last 25 years. We identified the following five steps in the development of HCV treatment regimens: 1) interferon (IFN)-α monotherapy in the early '90s, 2) IFN-α in combination with ribavirin (RBV), 3) pegylated (peg) IFN-α in combination with RBV, 4) the first direct acting antivirals (DAAs) (telaprevir and boceprevir) in combination with pegIFN-α and RBV, and 5) newer DAA-based regimens, such as sofosbuvir (which is or is not combined with ledipasvir) and fixed-dose combination of ritonavir-boosted paritaprevir and ombitasvir in combination with dasabuvir.

Design

We performed a linear regression and mean cost analysis to test for an association between SVRs and HCV regimen prices. We conducted a sensitivity analysis using US prices at the time of US drug licensing. We selected randomized clinical trials of drugs approved for use in Switzerland from 1997 to July 2015 including treatment-naïve patients with HCV genotype 1 infection.

Results

We identified a statistically significant positive relationship between the proportion of patients achieving SVRs and the costs of HCV regimens in Switzerland (with a bivariate ordinary least square regression yielding an R2 measure of 0.96) and the US (R2 = 0.95). The incremental cost per additional percentage of SVR was 597.14 USD in Switzerland and 1,063.81 USD in the US.

Conclusion

The pricing of drugs for HCV regimens follows a value-based model, which has a stable ratio of costs per achieved SVR over 25 years. Health care systems are struggling with the high resource use of these new agents despite their obvious long-term advantages for the overall health of the population. Therefore, the pharmaceutical industry, health care payers and other stakeholders are challenged with finding new drug pricing schemes to treat the entire population infected with HCV.

Characteristics of Foreign-Born Persons in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study: Implications for Screening Recommendations

BACKGROUND

Switzerland recommends individuals who originate from high-prevalence countries to be screened for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, not all these persons are equally at risk. We thus aimed to describe the number and characteristics of persons with HCV infection born outside of Switzerland.

METHODS

We compared characteristics of anti-HCV-positive individuals in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS) and of HCV cases reported to the Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), with those of the general population in Switzerland. Persons who inject drugs (PWID) and persons who do not inject drugs (non-PWID) were compared by age groups for different countries of origin (represented by ≥1% of participants in the SCCS or FOPH).

RESULTS

We included 4,199 persons from the SCCS and 26,610 cases from the FOPH. Both groups had similar characteristics. In both data sources non-PWID were more frequent in foreign-born than in Swiss-born persons (63% versus 34% in the SCCS). The only subgroup with a clearly higher proportion both in the SCCS and FOPH than in the general population were persons over 60 years from Italy and Spain, with a 3.7- and 2.8-fold increase in the SCCS. These persons were non-PWID (99%), less frequently HIV- and anti-HBc positive and more often female than PWID from Italy and Spain; cirrhosis at enrolment was frequent (31%). Their HCV genotypes were consistent with those observed in elderly non-PWID of their birth countries. In the FOPH a higher proportion than in the general population was also seen for cases from Georgia and Russia.

CONCLUSION

The identification of subgroups in which HCV infection is particularly frequent might allow for better targeting HCV screening among foreign-born persons in Switzerland and elsewhere.