Modelling the Health Impact of an English Sugary Drinks Duty at National and Local Levels

Policy models for preventative interventions in cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs), including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), are major contributors to morbidity, mortality, and rising healthcare costs. Effective disease prevention programs rely on robust mathematical models to generate long-term evidence regarding the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and policy implications of interventions in the population. Population-level interventions, such as dietary policies, are recognised as essential prevention strategies, yet there is limited syntheis of policy models assessing their impact. This study systematically reviews existing CMD policy models to provide: (i) a comprehensive overview of current models, and (ii) a critical appraisal of their application, particularly in the context of primordial prevention programmes.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL, Google Scholar, and Open Grey. The search focused on publications from 1st January 2000, to 31st May 2024, using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) for "cardiovascular," "diabetes," "decision model," and "policy model." Full-text articles were independently appraised independently by three reviewers using the Phillips et al. checklist, and the review process adhered to PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Thirty-two articles met the inclusion criteria and were critically appraised. Policy models were assessed across three domains: structure, data, and consistency. Most models (79%) demonstrated well-defined structures, aligning inputs and objectives with the stated perspective and initial justifications. However, fewer than 60% of studies clearly reported the quality of their data sources and provided clear information in terms of consistency. The reviewed studies employed diverse methodologies, including parameter incorporation, simulation modelling, and outcome analysis.

CONCLUSION

The review highlights substantial heterogeneity in the quality, structure, and data use of policy models evaluating dietary interventions for CMD prevention. To advance CMD policy modeling, this study provides recommendations for improving conceptualisation, methodological rigor, and applicability to prevention programmes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered protocol at PROSPERO: CRD42022354399.

A scoping review of policies related to reducing energy drink consumption in children

BACKGROUND

Frequent consumption of Energy Drinks (EDs) is associated with numerous health problems, including overweight and obesity, particularly among children and adolescents. The extensive promotion, wide accessibility, and relatively low cost of EDs have significantly increased their popularity among this age group. This paper examines policies/programs that, directly and indirectly, contribute to reducing ED consumption in children and adolescents and shares global experiences to help policymakers adopt evidence-based policies.

METHODS

A systematic search was performed using PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases from January 2000 to June 2024, along with reputable international organization websites, to find literature on policies aimed at reducing ED consumption among children and adolescents. All sources meeting the inclusion criteria were included without restrictions. Titles and abstracts were initially screened, followed by a full-text review. After evaluating the quality of the selected studies, data were extracted and, along with information from the selected documents, compiled into a table, detailing the country, policy type, and the effectiveness and weaknesses of each policy.

RESULTS

Out of 12166 reviewed studies and documents, 84 studies and 70 documents met the inclusion criteria. 73 countries and territories have implemented policies like taxation, sales bans, school bans, labeling, and marketing restrictions on EDs. Most employ fiscal measures, reducing consumption despite enforcement challenges. Labeling, access restrictions, and marketing bans are common but face issues like black markets.

CONCLUSION

This scoping review outlines diverse strategies adopted by countries to reduce ED consumption among children and teenagers, such as taxation, school bans, sales restrictions, and labeling requirements. While heightened awareness of ED harms has reinforced policy efforts, many Asian and African nations lack such measures, some policies remain outdated for over a decade, and existing policies face several challenges. These challenges encompass industry resistance, governmental disagreements, public opposition, economic considerations, and the intricacies of policy design. Considering this, countries should tailor policies to their cultural and social contexts, taking into account each policy's strengths and weaknesses to avoid loopholes. Inter-sectoral cooperation, ongoing policy monitoring, updates, and public education campaigns are essential to raise awareness and ensure effective implementation.

Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Simulation modeling methods are an increasingly common tool for projecting the potential health effects of policies to decrease sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake. However, it remains unknown which SSB policies are understudied and how simulation modeling methods could be improved. To inform next steps, we conducted a scoping review to characterize the (1) policies considered and (2) major characteristics of SSB simulation models.

METHODS

We systematically searched 7 electronic databases in 2020, updated in 2021. Two investigators independently screened articles to identify peer-reviewed research using simulation modeling to project the impact of SSB policies on health outcomes. One investigator extracted information about policies considered and key characteristics of models from the full text of included articles. Data were analyzed in 2021-22.

RESULTS

Sixty-one articles were included. Of these, 50 simulated at least one tax policy, most often an ad valorem tax (e.g., 20% tax, n = 25) or volumetric tax (e.g., 1 cent-per-fluid-ounce tax, n = 23). Non-tax policies examined included bans on SSB purchases (n = 5), mandatory reformulation (n = 3), warning labels (n = 2), and portion size policies (n = 2). Policies were typically modeled in populations accounting for age and gender or sex attributes. Most studies focused on weight-related outcomes (n = 54), used cohort, lifetable, or microsimulation modeling methods (n = 34), conducted sensitivity or uncertainty analyses (n = 56), and included supplementary materials (n = 54). Few studies included stakeholders at any point in their process (n = 9) or provided replication code/data (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

Most simulation modeling of SSB policies has focused on tax policies and has been limited in its exploration of heterogenous impacts across population groups. Future research would benefit from refined policy and implementation scenario specifications, thorough assessments of the equity impacts of policies using established methods, and standardized reporting to improve transparency and consistency.

The Cost Effectiveness of Taxation of Sugary Foods and Beverages: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations

BACKGROUND

With increasing concerns about the health consequences and economic burden of excess sugar consumption, a sugar tax is increasingly considered an effective policy to curb sugar consumption. However, little is known about the cost effectiveness of sugar taxes. To inform policy decision makers, we systematically reviewed and analyzed the evidence regarding the cost effectiveness of sugar taxation.

METHODS

We systematically searched six databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, EconLit, and Google Scholar) to identify relevant journal articles. Two reviewers independently scanned and selected all retrieved studies. Only studies that evaluated sugar taxes and applied economic evaluation methods were included. The quality of included studies was assessed using established standards.

RESULTS

Fifteen good-quality studies that originated from six countries (the US, Australia, South Africa, Canada, the UK, and Mexico) were included. These studies revealed that sugar tax improved health-related quality of life. Savings from avoided health care costs and revenue from the sugar taxes (totalling US$87 to US$167,799 million) exceeded intervention costs (US$5 to US$2177 million). Each of the 15 studies concluded that sugar tax constitutes a cost-effective intervention that led to cost savings.

CONCLUSIONS

Sugar tax is a practical and cost-effective policy option to reduce the health and economic burden resulting from excess sugar consumption. The impact of sugar taxes depends on the target population, time horizons, and other parameters. Economic evaluations of taxation of a broader set of sugary products and economic evaluations that combine sugar taxation with other interventions are important to inform further action to curb sugar consumption.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

BACKGROUND

Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model's features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model's outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.

PROSPERO PROTOCOL NUMBER

CRD42020121025 .

Adult diet in England: Where is more support needed to achieve dietary recommendations?

Background

Small-area estimation models are regularly commissioned by public health bodies to identify areas of greater inequality and target areas for intervention in a range of behaviours and outcomes. Such local modelling has not been completed for diet consumption in England despite diet being an important predictor of health status. The study sets out whether aspects of adult diet can be modelled from previously collected data to define and evaluate area-level interventions to address obesity and ill-health.

Methods

Adults aged 16 years and over living in England. Consumption of fruit, vegetables, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are modelled using small-area estimation methods in English neighbourhoods (Middle Super Output Areas [MSOA]) to identify areas where reported portions are significantly different from recommended levels of consumption. The selected aspects of diet are modelled from respondents in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey using pooled data from 2008–2016.

Results

Estimates indicate that the average prevalence of adults consuming less than one portion of fruit, vegetables or 100% juice each day by MSOA is 6.9% (range of 4.3 to 14.7%, SE 0.06) and the average prevalence of drinking more than 330ml/day of SSB is 11.5% (range of 5.7 to 30.5%, SE 0.03). Credible intervals around the estimates are wider for SSB consumption. The results identify areas including regions in London, urban areas in the North of England and the South coast which may be prioritised for targeted interventions to support reduced consumption of SSB and/or an increase in portions of fruit and vegetables.

Conclusion

These estimates provide valuable information at a finer spatial scale than is presently feasible, allowing for within-country and locality prioritisation of resources to improve diet. Local, targeted interventions to improve fruit and vegetable consumption such as subsidies or voucher schemes should be considered where consumption of these foods is predicted to be low.

Impact of interventions to reduce overnutrition on healthcare costs related to obesity and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

CONTEXT

In recent decades, obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have both become global epidemics associated with substantial healthcare needs and costs.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this review was to critically assess nutritional interventions for their impact on healthcare costs to community-dwelling individuals regarding T2DM or obesity or both, specifically using CHEERS (Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards) criteria to assess the economic components of the evidence.

DATA SOURCES

Searches were executed in Embase, EconLit, AgEcon, PubMed, and Web of Science databases.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if they had a nutritional perspective, reported an economic evaluation that included healthcare costs, and focused on obesity or T2DM or both. Studies were excluded if they examined clinical nutritional preparations, dietary supplements, industrially modified dietary components, micronutrient deficiencies, or undernutrition; if they did not report the isolated impact of nutrition in complex or lifestyle interventions; or if they were conducted in animals or attempted to transfer findings from animals to humans.

DATA EXTRACTION

A systematic review was performed according to PRISMA guidelines. Using predefined search terms, 21 studies evaluating food habit interventions or taxation of unhealthy foods and beverages were extracted and evaluated using CHEERS criteria.

RESULTS

Overall, these studies showed that nutrition interventions and taxation approaches could lead to cost savings and improved health outcomes when compared with current practice. All of the included studies used external sources and economic modeling or risk estimations with population-attributable risks to calculate economic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Most evidence supported taxation approaches. The effect of nutritional interventions has not been adequately assessed. Controlled studies to directly measure economic impacts are warranted.

Impact of population distribution shifts in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland

PURPOSE

We simulate population shifts in the distribution of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and address previous methodological limitations to provide valid and reliable estimates of the potential impact of public health interventions on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland.

METHODS

A comparative risk assessment was conducted, using distribution shift calculations to estimate potential impact fractions (PIFs) for percentage reductions in SSB consumption. Data from the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition was analyzed. Individual risk of developing type II diabetes was estimated using a risk prediction algorithm. PIFs were calculated using risk estimates, changes in SSB consumption, and an appropriately specified relative risk. The impact of a 20% levy on SSBs was explored. Monte-Carlo simulation with 150,000 iterations estimated uncertainty intervals (UIs). PIFs were applied to 2016 census data, estimating the absolute incident cases that may potentially be avoided through reduced SSB consumption.

RESULTS

Of the 7272 Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition participants, 53.3% consumed SSBs. The 10-year rate of type II diabetes was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.2%, 4.4%). Simulating a 100% reduction in SSB consumption, the population attributable fraction was 1.8% (95%UI: 0.1%, 3.3%). Population shifts in consumption after a 20% levy results in a PIF of 0.37% (95%UI: 0.02%, 0.7%). We estimate 135,850 incident type II diabetes cases over a 10-year period. Of these, 2446 (95% UI: 136, 4483) cases may be attributable to SSB consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Overcoming previous methodological limitations, unbiased estimates demonstrate that a population shift in SSB consumption can potentially play a role in the primary prevention of type II diabetes.

Fiscal measures to promote healthier choices: an economic perspective on price-based interventions

INTRODUCTION

Non-communicable diseases strongly linked to lifestyle factors create an increasing burden of disease. Fiscal interventions (tax and subsidy) are one approach to improving lifestyles, but their effective design might be improved.

ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK

Conventional economic theory suggests that fiscal interventions are only used to correct prices for externalities (costs or benefits imposed on others). These can be difficult to calculate accurately. Fiscal interventions operate by altering the prices that consumers face. Price increases are predicted to reduce demand, and the size of the effect is measured by the price elasticity. Tax changes may not translate directly into price changes, however.

EVIDENCE FOR THE EFFECT OF TAXES, SUBSIDIES AND PRICES

There is strong evidence for the effectiveness of taxation in relation to reducing tobacco and alcohol consumption and resulting harms. There has been less evaluation of taxation in relation to other unhealthy behaviors or of subsidies to promote healthy behaviors.

DISCUSSION

Fiscal levers have been used as interventions to improve health rather than for market correction. Taking account of behavioral insights may improve the design of fiscal interventions and combining interventions may increase effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

Both types of intervention have a role in improving health, but there may be challenges in promoting uptake of healthy behaviors.

Adiposity among 132 479 UK Biobank participants; contribution of sugar intake vs other macronutrients

Background

Policy makers are being encouraged to specifically target sugar intake in order to combat obesity. We examined the extent to which sugar, relative to other macronutrients, was associated with adiposity.

Methods

We used baseline data from UK Biobank to examine the associations between energy intake (total and individual macronutrients) and adiposity [body mass index (BMI), percentage body fat and waist circumference]. Linear regression models were conducted univariately and adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity and physical activity.

Results

Among 132 479 participants, 66.3% of men and 51.8% of women were overweight/obese. There was a weak correlation (r = 0.24) between energy from sugar and fat; 13% of those in the highest quintile for sugar were in the lowest for fat, and vice versa. Compared with normal BMI, obese participants had 11.5% higher total energy intake and 14.6%, 13.8%, 9.5% and 4.7% higher intake from fat, protein, starch and sugar, respectively. Hence, the proportion of energy derived from fat was higher (34.3% vs 33.4%, P < 0.001) but from sugar was lower (22.0% vs 23.4%, P < 0.001). BMI was more strongly associated with total energy [coefficient 2.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.36-2.55] and energy from fat (coefficient 1.96, 95% CI 1.91-2.06) than sugar (coefficient 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.55). The latter became negative after adjustment for total energy.

Conclusions

Fat is the largest contributor to overall energy. The proportion of energy from fat in the diet, but not sugar, is higher among overweight/obese individuals. Focusing public health messages on sugar may mislead on the need to reduce fat and overall energy consumption.

Climate change mitigation opportunities based on carbon footprint estimates of dietary patterns in Peru

Food consumption accounts for an important proportion of the world GHG emissions per capita. Previous studies have delved into the nature of dietary patterns, showing that GHG reductions can be achieved in diets if certain foods are consumed rather than other, more GHG intensive products. For instance, vegetarian and low-meat diets have proved to be less carbon intensive than diets that are based on ruminant meat. These environmental patterns, increasingly analyzed in developed nations, are yet to be assessed in countries liked Peru where food purchase represents a relatively high percentage of the average household expenditure, ranging from 38% to 51% of the same. Therefore, food consumption can be identified as a potential way to reduce GHG emissions in Peru. However, the Peruvian government lacks a specific strategy to mitigate emissions in this sector, despite the recent ratification of the Paris Accord. In view of this, the main objective of this study is to analyze the environmental impacts of a set of 47 Peruvian food diet profiles, including geographical and socioeconomic scenarios. In order to do this, Life Cycle Assessment was used as the methodological framework to obtain the overall impacts of the components in the dietary patterns observed and primary data linked to the composition of diets were collected from the Peruvian National Institute for Statistics (INEI). Life cycle inventories for the different products that are part of the Peruvian diet were obtained from a set of previous scientific articles and reports regarding food production. Results were computed using the IPCC 2013 assessment method to estimate GHG emissions. Despite variations in GHG emissions from a geographical perspective, no significant differences were observed between cities located in the three Peruvian natural regions (i.e., coast, Andes and Amazon basin). In contrast, there appears to be a strong, positive correlation between GHG emissions and social expenditure or academic status. When compared to GHG emissions computed in the literature for developed nations, where the average caloric intake is substantially higher, diet-related emissions in Peru were in the low range. Our results could be used as a baseline for policy support to align nutritional and health policies in Peru with the need to reduce the environmental impacts linked to food production.

Comparing the Nutritional Impact of Dietary Strategies to Reduce Discretionary Choice Intake in the Australian Adult Population: A Simulation Modelling Study

Dietary strategies to reduce discretionary choice intake are commonly utilized in practice, but evidence on their relative efficacy is lacking. The aim was to compare the potential impact on nutritional intake of three strategies to reducing discretionary choices intake in the Australian adult (19-90 years) population. Dietary simulation modelling using data from the National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2011-2012 was conducted (n = 9341; one 24 h dietary recall). Strategies modelled were: moderation (reduce discretionary choices by 50%, with 0%, 25% or 75% energy compensation); substitution (replace 50% of discretionary choices with core choices); reformulation (replace 50% SFA with unsaturated fats, reduce added sugars by 25%, and reduce sodium by 20%). Compared to the base case (observed) intake, modelled intakes in the moderation scenario showed: -17.3% lower energy (sensitivity analyses, 25% energy compensation -14.2%; 75% energy compensation -8.0%), -20.9% lower SFA (-17.4%; -10.5%), -43.3% lower added sugars (-41.1%; -36.7%) and 17.7% lower sodium (-14.3%; -7.5%). Substitution with a range of core items, or with fruits, vegetables and core beverages only, resulted in similar changes in energy intake (-13.5% and -15.4%), SFA (-17.7% and -20.1%), added sugars (-42.6% and -43%) and sodium (-13.7% and -16.5%), respectively. Reformulating discretionary choices had minimal impact on reducing energy intake but reduced SFA (-10.3% to -30.9%), added sugars (-9.3% to -52.9%), and alcohol (-25.0% to -49.9%) and sodium (-3.3% to -13.2%). The substitution and reformulation scenarios minimized negative changes in fiber, protein and micronutrient intakes. While each strategy has strengths and limitations, substitution of discretionary choices with core foods and beverages may optimize the nutritional impact.

Glucagon-like peptide 1 in the pathophysiology and pharmacotherapy of clinical obesity

Though the pathophysiology of clinical obesity is undoubtedly multifaceted, several lines of clinical evidence implicate an important functional role for glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) signalling. Clinical studies assessing GLP-1 responses in normal weight and obese subjects suggest that weight gain may induce functional deficits in GLP-1 signalling that facilitates maintenance of the obesity phenotype. In addition, genetic studies implicate a possible role for altered GLP-1 signalling as a risk factor towards the development of obesity. As reductions in functional GLP-1 signalling seem to play a role in clinical obesity, the pharmacological replenishment seems a promising target for the medical management of obesity in clinical practice. GLP-1 analogue liraglutide at a high dose (3 mg/d) has shown promising results in achieving and maintaining greater weight loss in obese individuals compared to placebo control, and currently licensed anti-obesity medications. Generally well tolerated, provided that longer-term data in clinical practice supports the currently available evidence of superior short- and long-term weight loss efficacy, GLP-1 analogues provide promise towards achieving the successful, sustainable medical management of obesity that remains as yet, an unmet clinical need.

Sugar-sweetened beverages coverage in the British media: an analysis of public health advocacy versus pro-industry messaging

OBJECTIVES

To assess the extent of media-based public health advocacy versus pro-industry messaging regarding sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs).

DESIGN

We conducted a systematic analysis to identify and examine all articles regarding SSBs published in all mainstream British print newspapers and their online news websites from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2014. We initially conducted a brief literature search to develop appropriate search terms and categorisations for grouping and analysing the articles. Articles were then coded according to the publishing newspaper, article type, topic, prominence and slant (pro-SSB or anti-SSB). A contextual analysis was undertaken to examine key messages in the articles.

RESULTS

We identified 374 articles published during 2014. The majority of articles (81%) suggested that SSBs are unhealthy. Messaging from experts, campaign groups and health organisations was fairly consistent about the detrimental effects of SSB on health. However, relatively few articles assessed any approaches or solutions to potentially combat the problems associated with SSBs. Only one-quarter (24%) suggested any policy change. Meanwhile, articles concerning the food industry produced consistent messages emphasising consumer choice and individual responsibility for making choices regarding SSB consumption, and promoting and advertising their products. The food industry thus often managed to avoid association with the negative press that their products were receiving.

CONCLUSIONS

SSBs were frequently published in mainstream British print newspapers and their online news websites during 2014. Public health media advocacy was prominent throughout, with a growing consensus that sugary drinks are bad for people's health. However, the challenge for public health will be to mobilise supportive public opinion to help implement effective regulatory policies. Only then will our population's excess consumption of SSBs come under control.

Electronic Noses for Well-Being: Breath Analysis and Energy Expenditure

The wealth of information concealed in a single human breath has been of interest for many years, promising not only disease detection, but also the monitoring of our general well-being. Recent developments in the fields of nano-sensor arrays and MEMS have enabled once bulky artificial olfactory sensor systems, or so-called "electronic noses", to become smaller, lower power and portable devices. At the same time, wearable health monitoring devices are now available, although reliable breath sensing equipment is somewhat missing from the market of physical, rather than chemical sensor gadgets. In this article, we report on the unprecedented rise in healthcare problems caused by an increasingly overweight population. We first review recently-developed electronic noses for the detection of diseases by the analysis of basic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Then, we discuss the primary cause of obesity from over eating and the high calorific content of food. We present the need to measure our individual energy expenditure from our exhaled breath. Finally, we consider the future for handheld or wearable devices to measure energy expenditure; and the potential of these devices to revolutionize healthcare, both at home and in hospitals.