Different Ultimate Factors Define Timing of Breeding in Two Related Species

Variation in breeding phenology in response to climate change in two passerine species

Increasingly warmer springs have caused phenological shifts in both plants and animals. In birds, it is well established that mean laying date has advanced to match the earlier food peak. We know less about changes in the distribution of egg-laying dates within a population and the environmental variables that determine this variation. This could be an important component of how populations respond to climate change. We, therefore, used laying date and environmental data from 39 years (1983-2021) to determine how climate change affected laying date variation in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and marsh tits (Poecile palustris), two sympatric passerines with different life histories. Both species advanced mean laying date (0.19-0.24 days per year) and mean laying date showed a negative relationship with maximum spring temperature in both blue and marsh tits. In springs with no clear temperature increase during the critical time window (the time-window in which mean laying date was most sensitive to temperature) start of breeding in blue tits was distributed over a longer part of the season. However, there was no such pattern in marsh tits. Our findings suggest that temperature change, and not necessarily absolute temperature, can shape the variation in breeding phenology in a species-specific manner, possibly linked to variation in life-history strategies. This is an important consideration when predicting how climate change affects timing of breeding within a population.

Prehatching temperatures drive inter-annual cohort differences in great tit metabolism

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the lowest metabolic rate in a resting animal and is, therefore, considered to reflect the energetic cost of maintenance in endotherms. BMR is a reversible plastic trait that changes with environmental and ecological circumstances, albeit being heritable and susceptible to selection. Inter-individual variation within populations of small birds is substantial, and while many of the drivers of such variation have been identified, many remain unexplained. We studied winter BMR variation of juveniles over a 15-year period in a wild population of great tits Parus major at the northern border of their distribution. BMR during winter consistently changed between years, even after controlling for environmental factors, suggestive of a non-reversible developmental plasticity shaping the adult metabolic phenotype. BMR in cohorts of wintering great tits varied among winters as a response to minimum ambient temperatures experienced early in life, during the prehatching period. This developmental plasticity might be adaptive if temperatures experienced by growing embryos would metabolically prime them to an environment that they will likely encounter in future life. However, in line with a more unpredictable future climate, the risk of phenotype-environment mismatch is likely to lead to certain cohorts being poorly adapted to prevailing winter conditions, resulting in wider annual fluctuations in population size.

The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500-km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long-term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long-term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long-distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.

Effects of ambient temperatures on evolutionary potential of reproductive timing in boreal passerines

Many populations need to adapt to changing environmental conditions, such as warming climate. Changing conditions generate directional selection for traits critical for fitness. For evolutionary responses to occur, these traits need to be heritable. However, changes in environmental conditions can alter the amount of heritable variation a population expresses, making predictions about expected responses difficult. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of ambient temperatures on evolutionary potential and strength of natural selection on the timing of reproduction in two passerine birds breeding in boreal forests. Long-term data on individually marked Willow Tits Poecile montanus (1975-2018) and Great Tits Parus major (1969-2018) were analysed with random regression animal models to assess if spring temperatures affect the expressed amount of additive genetic variation (V_A ) and heritability (h² ) in the timing of breeding. We assessed if ambient temperatures of different seasons influenced the direction and strength of selection on breeding time. We also evaluated if the strength of selection covaried with evolutionary potential. Levels of V_A or h² expressed in laying date were unaffected by spring temperatures in both study species. Selection for earlier breeding was found in the Willow Tit, but not in the Great Tit. In the Willow Tit, selection for earlier breeding was more intense when the temperatures of following autumns and winters were low. Different measures of evolutionary potential did not covary strongly with the strength of selection in either species. We conclude that there is no or little evidence that climate warming would either constrain or promote evolutionary potential in timing of breeding through changes in amount of genetic variance expressed in boreal Willow and Great Tits. However, selection on the timing of breeding, a life-history event taking place in springtime, is regulated by temperatures of autumns and winters. Rapid warming of these periods have thus potential to reduce the rate of expected evolutionary response in reproductive timing.

Climate change-driven elevational changes among boreal nocturnal moths

Climate change has shifted geographical ranges of species northwards or to higher altitudes on elevational gradients. These changes have been associated with increases in ambient temperatures. For ectotherms in seasonal environments, however, life history theory relies largely on the length of summer, which varies somewhat independently of ambient temperature per se. Extension of summer reduces seasonal time constraints and enables species to establish in new areas as a result of over-wintering stage reaching in due time. The reduction of time constraints is also predicted to prolong organisms’ breeding season when reproductive potential is under selection. We studied temporal change in the summer length and its effect on species’ performance by combining long-term data on the occurrence and abundance of nocturnal moths with weather conditions in a boreal location at Värriötunturi fell in NE Finland. We found that summers have lengthened on average 5 days per decade from the late 1970s, profoundly due to increasing delays in the onset of winters. Moth abundance increased with increasing season length a year before. Most of the species occurrences expanded upwards in elevation. Moth communities in low elevation pine heath forest and middle elevation mountain birch forest have become inseparable. Yet, the flight periods have remained unchanged, probably due to unpredictable variation in proximate conditions (weather) that hinders life histories from selection. We conclude that climate change-driven changes in the season length have potential to affect species’ ranges and affect the structure of insect assemblages, which may contribute to alteration of ecosystem-level processes.

Physiological condition of nestling great tits (Parus major) declines with the date of brood initiation: a long term study of first clutches

In seasonal environments, a temporal decline in breeding performance (e.g. clutch size, nestling condition, and fledging success) of altricial bird species is a well-known phenomenon. In this study, we present the effect of laying phenology on the physiological condition of nestling great tits (Parus major) in 14 consecutive breeding seasons. We used blood haemoglobin and baseline glucose concentrations as indicators of nestling physiological condition. Nestling blood haemoglobin reflects food base quality and availability during the breeding period. Blood glucose concentration can be used as a supplementary reverse index of condition, since it is negatively related to environmental quality. It might be indicative of the stress caused by unfavourable extrinsic factors, though, due to potential confounding factors such as adverse weather conditions, low food quality, or feeding interruptions, glucose levels should be used in this ecological context with caution. Great tit nestlings from earlier broods were characterised by higher mean haemoglobin concentrations, indicating a seasonal decline in food quality and availability. The blood glucose concentration displayed an opposite pattern, with nestlings from earlier broods being characterised by lower mean concentrations than those from later broods. However, very little of the variation in blood glucose concentration can be explained by the variation in laying date, which suggests that blood glucose concentration is of little importance in the context of breeding phenology. Our results show that the physiological condition of nestlings of this species decreases as the breeding season progresses, most probably due to environmental factors.

Asymmetric competition impacts evolutionary rescue in a changing environment

Interspecific competition can strongly influence the evolutionary response of a species to a changing environment, impacting the chance that the species survives or goes extinct. Previous work has shown that when two species compete for a temporally shifting resource distribution, the species lagging behind the resource peak is the first to go extinct due to competitive exclusion. However, this work assumed symmetrically distributed resources and competition. Asymmetries can generate differences between species in population sizes, genetic variation and trait means. We show that asymmetric resource availability or competition can facilitate coexistence and even occasionally cause the leading species to go extinct first. Surprisingly, we also find cases where traits evolve in the opposite direction to the changing environment because of a 'vacuum of competitive release' created when the lagging species declines in number. Thus, the species exhibiting the slowest rate of trait evolution is not always the most likely to go extinct in a changing environment. Our results demonstrate that the extent to which species appear to be tracking environmental change and the extent to which they are preadapted to that change may not necessarily determine which species will be the winners and which will be the losers in a rapidly changing world.