Optimizing Surveillance Performance of Alpha-Fetoprotein by Selection of Proper Target Population in Chronic Hepatitis B

A scoring system for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in alcoholic cirrhosis

The role of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is being questioned in alcoholic cirrhosis because of the relative low HCC risk. This study aimed to assess the risk and predictors of HCC in Korean patients with alcoholic cirrhosis by using competing risk analysis. A total of 745 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis were recruited at a university-affiliated hospital in Korea and randomly assigned to either the derivation (n = 507) and validation (n = 238) cohort. Subdistribution hazards model of Fine and Gray was used with deaths and liver transplantation treated as competing risks. Death records were confirmed from Korean government databases. A nomogram was developed to calculate the Alcohol-associated Liver Cancer Estimation (ALICE) score. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 15.3 and 13.3% at 10 years for derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, alpha-fetoprotein level, and albumin level were identified as independent predictors of HCC and incorporated in the ALICE score, which discriminated low, intermediate, and high risk for HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis at the cut-off of 60 and 100. The risk of HCC can be stratified by using a combination of readily available clinical parameters (age, AFP level, and albumin level) in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

Minimal increases of serum alpha-foetoprotein herald HCC detection in Caucasian HBV cirrhotic patients under long-term oral therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In Caucasian patients with compensated cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV), the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developing persist despite long-term nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUC) treatment. In the surveillance of this population with persistently normal transaminases because of NUCs, the added value of serum alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) monitoring is poorly defined.

METHODS

Two hundred and fifty-eight Caucasian HCC-free patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis who started tenofovir or entecavir while having normal serum AFP levels (≤7 ng/mL) at baseline or within the first year of treatment underwent HCC surveillance by semiannual ultrasound evaluation and serum AFP determination.

RESULTS

During 96 (18-120) months of antiviral therapy, 3947 AFP values were collected, median AFP level was 2 ng/mL. Thirty-five patients developed an HCC at an overall 8-year crude cumulative incidence of 14% (annual incidence of 2%). HCC incidence increased in parallel with increasing AFP thresholds: 24%, 36%, 64% and 92% for AFP levels after exceeding 2, 4, 6 and 7 ng/mL for the first-time. Of the 12 patients who experienced an AFP rise > 7 ng/mL, 11 developed an HCC and one had liver metastases of lung cancer. Overall, an AFP > 7 ng/mL had 99.6% specificity, 31.4% sensitivity, 91.7% PPV, 90.2% NPV, LR+ 70.1 and LR- 0.69 for HCC; this excellent specificity was maintained up to 18 months before HCC detection.

CONCLUSIONS

In Caucasian patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis on long-term NUC, an increase in AFP over 7 ng/mL shows excellent specificity, heralding HCC development within 1 year.

A Large-Scale Multicenter Study Validates Aldo-Keto Reductase Family 1 Member B10 as a Prevalent Serum Marker for Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 (AKR1B10) is a secretory protein overexpressed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to evaluate AKR1B10 as a serum marker for detection of HCC. Herein, we conducted a cohort study that consecutively enrolled 1,244 participants from three independent hospitals, including HCC, healthy controls (HCs), benign liver tumors (BLTs), chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and liver cirrhosis (LC). Serum AKR1B10 was tested by time-resolved fluorescent assays. Data were plotted for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was analyzed for comparison. An exploratory discovery cohort demonstrated that serum AKR1B10 increased in patients with HCC (1,567.3 ± 292.6 pg/mL; n = 69) compared with HCs (85.7 ± 10.9 pg/mL; n = 66; P < 0.0001). A training cohort of 519 participants yielded an optimal diagnostic cutoff of serum AKR1B10 at 267.9 pg/mL. When ROC curve was plotted for HCC versus all controls (HC + BLT + CHB + LC), serum AKR1B10 had diagnostic parameters of the area under the curve (AUC) 0.896, sensitivity 72.7%, and specificity 95.7%, which were better than AFP with AUC 0.816, sensitivity 65.1%, and specificity 88.9%. Impressively, AKR1B10 showed promising diagnostic potential in early-stage HCC and AFP-negative HCC. Combination of AKR1B10 with AFP increased diagnostic accuracy for HCC compared with AKR1B10 or AFP alone. A validation cohort of 522 participants confirmed these findings. An independent cohort of 68 patients with HCC who were followed up showed that serum AKR1B10 dramatically decreased 1 day after operation and was nearly back to normal 3 days after operation. Conclusion: AKR1B10 is a potent serum marker for detection of HCC and early-stage HCC, with better diagnostic performance than AFP.

Clinical features and outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma in Caucasian cirrhotic patients on long-term analogue therapy for hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Long-term oral nucleos(t)ide analogue (NUC) therapy in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related compensated cirrhotics prevents clinical decompensation but not hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development.

AIMS

To define the clinical features and outcomes of HCC in long-term NUC-treated HBV patients.

METHODS

All HCCs developing between 2005 and 2016 in NUC-treated HBV patients under surveillance were studied, excluding those that occurred within the first 6 months of therapy. Clinical features of HCC, alpha faetoprotein (AFP) patterns and patients' outcome were studied.

RESULTS

Seventy-six HCC patients were included. Median age was 67 (40-83) years, 84% males, 96% Caucasian, 95% HBeAg-negative, 96% with undetectable HBV DNA, 83% with normal ALT levels, and 92% with compensated cirrhosis. Median serum AFP levels were 4 (1-3615) ng/mL (>7 ng/mL in 36%). HCC was monofocal in 78%, had a median diameter of 20 (6-57) mm and was in its early stage in 92% which allowed potentially curative treatments in 78% (39% ablation, 28% surgical resection, 11% liver transplantation). Overall, a complete response was obtained in 61 (80%) patients: in 40 after a first-line treatment, in 3 after the second-line treatment, in 2 after the third-line treatment, while 16 underwent liver transplantation (8 as second line). During 45 (7-144) months after HCC diagnosis, 19 patients died, 84% from HCC progression. The median time to recurrence was 20.2 (3-53) months, and the cumulative 5-year liver-related survival was 74%.

CONCLUSIONS

HCCs developing in patients under long-term NUC treatment were single, small tumours, amenable to curative therapies able to confer excellent 5-year survival rates.

Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies risks for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients on surveillance

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The aim of this study was to determine whether dynamic computed tomography (CT)-measured liver volume predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) when the CT scans do not reveal evidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients on surveillance.

METHODS

This retrospective multicentre cohort study included 1,246 patients who received entecavir and regular HCC surveillance in three tertiary referral centres in South Korea. Liver volumes were measured on portal venous phase CT images. A nomogram was developed based on Cox independent predictors and externally validated. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed for comparison with previous prediction models.

RESULTS

Patients who received dynamic CT studies during surveillance had significantly higher risk for HCC compared to patients without CT studies (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.1; p < 0.001). Expected/measured liver volume ratio was an independent predictor of HCC (HR = 4.2; p = 0.002) in addition to age, sex and cirrhosis. The nomogram based on the four predictors discriminated risks for HCC (HR = 4.1 and 6.0 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively, for volume score > 150; p < 0.001). Time-dependent ROC analysis confirmed better performance of the volume score compared to HCC prediction models with conventional predictors (integrated area under curve = 0.758 vs. 0.661-0.712; p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

CT-measured liver volume is an independent predictor of future HCC, and nomogram-based liver volume score may stratify the risks of HCC in CHB patients who showed negative CT findings for HCC during surveillance.

Development of a nomogram for screening of hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

Current strategy of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance evaluates individual risks of HCC for defining candidates for surveillance, but estimated risks are not utilized for clinical decision-making during actual screening. We sought to determine whether consideration of individual risks improve the performance of ultrasound (US)-based HCC screening in a real-world chronic hepatitis B (CHB) cohort. This single center retrospective cohort study analyzed 27,722 screening US tests from 4,175 consecutive CHB patients. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent parameters predicting presence of HCC. A nomogram was built based on the independent predictors of HCC and compared with US-only screening by receiver operating characteristics analysis. The cost-effectiveness of the nomogram was assessed by decision curve analysis. HCC developed in 222 patients with the incidence of 0.769 per 1000 person-year during the median follow-up of 63 months. Age, sex, presence of cirrhosis, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels and positive US test results were independent predictors of HCC presence. A nomogram based on these predictors showed higher C-statistics compared to US-only screening (0.960 vs. 0.731 and 0.935 vs. 0.691 for derivation and validation cohort, respectively; p < 0.001). Decision curve analysis showed higher net benefit of the HCC nomogram-guided screening model compared to US-only screening in the risk threshold range between 0 and 0.3. A nomogram composed of age, sex, presence of cirrhosis, serum AFP levels and US findings better predicted the presence of HCC compared to US-only screening in CHB on surveillance.

Should AFP (or any biomarkers) be used for HCC surveillance?

A PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To address the controversy around the use of biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in individuals with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B who are at risk for development of liver cancer.

B RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies suggest that surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma is beneficial, even after adjustment for lead time and other biases. Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) is complementary to ultrasound (US) in surveillance, particularly in obese patients and patients with infiltrative tumors. US and AFP are both associated with harms to patients from false positive over-diagnosis, with US appearing to cause greater harms. Including patient demographic characteristics and additional biomarkers into diagnostic models is beneficial. Recent studies emphasize the advantage of time trends in biomarkers over single cross-sectional measurements.

C SUMMARY

AFP and other biomarkers are complementary to US in surveillance for HCC, especially when applied in models including patient variables and incorporating time trends in biomarker levels. With advances in genetic and molecular analysis of tumors, we may be poised at the cusp of a revolution in HCC surveillance.