Assessing the State of Knowledge Regarding the Effectiveness of Interventions to Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis

Principles of risk decision-making

Risk management decisions in public health require consideration of a number of complex, often conflicting factors. The aim of this review was to propose a set of 10 fundamental principles to guide risk decision-making. Although each of these principles is sound in its own right, the guidance provided by different principles might lead the decision-maker in different directions. For example, where the precautionary principle advocates for preemptive risk management action under situations of scientific uncertainty and potentially catastrophic consequences, the principle of risk-based decision-making encourages decision-makers to focus on established and modifiable risks, where a return on the investment in risk management is all but guaranteed in the near term. To evaluate the applicability of the 10 principles in practice, one needs to consider 10 diverse risk issues of broad concern and explore which of these principles are most appropriate in different contexts. The 10 principles presented here afford substantive insight into the process of risk management decision-making, although decision-makers will ultimately need to exercise judgment in reaching appropriate risk decisions, accounting for all of the scientific and extra-scientific factors relevant to the risk decision at hand.

Quality improvement in a crisis: a qualitative study of experiences and lessons learned from the Irish National Ambulance Service response to the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced radical changes in international health services. In Ireland, the National Ambulance Service established a novel home and community testing service that was central to the national COVID-19 screening programme. This service was overseen by a multidisciplinary response room. This research examined the response room service, particularly areas that performed well and areas requiring improvement, using a quality improvement (QI) framework.

DESIGN

This was a qualitative study comprising semi-structured, individual interviews. Maximum variation sampling was used. The data were analysed using an established thematic analysis procedure. The analysis was guided by the framework, which comprised six QI drivers.

SETTING

Response room employees, including clinicians, dispatchers and administrators, were interviewed via telephone.

RESULTS

Leadership for quality: participants valued person-oriented leadership, including regular, open communication and consultation with staff. Person/family engagement: participants endeavoured to provide patient-centred care. Formal patient feedback mechanisms and shared decision-making could be beneficial in the future. Staff engagement: working in a response room could affect well-being, though it also provided networking and learning opportunities. Staff require support and teambuilding. Use of improvement methods: improvements were made in a relatively informal, ad hoc manner. The use of robust methods based on improvement science was not reported. Measurement for quality: data were collected to improve efficiency and accuracy. More rigorous measurement would be beneficial, especially formally collecting stakeholder feedback. Governance for quality: close alignment with collaborators and clear communication with staff are essential. Information and communications technology for quality: this seventh driver was added because the importance of information technology specially designed for pandemics was frequently highlighted.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides insights on what worked well and what required improvement in a pandemic response room. It can inform health services, particularly emergency services, in their preparation for additional COVID-19 waves, as well as future crises.

Interventions on Socioeconomic and Racial Inequities in Respiratory Pandemics: a Rapid Systematic Review

Purpose of Review

Racial and socioeconomic inequities in respiratory pandemics have been consistently documented, but little official guidance exists on effective action to prevent these. We systematically reviewed quantitative evaluations of (real or simulated) interventions targeting racial and socioeconomic inequities in respiratory pandemic outcomes.

Recent Findings

Our systematic search returned 10,208 records, of which 5 met inclusion criteria, including observational (n = 1), randomized trial (n = 1), and simulation (n = 3) studies. Interventions studied included vaccination parity, antiviral distribution, school closure, disinfection, personal protective equipment, and paid sick leave, with a focus on Black (n = 3) and/or Latinx (n = 4) or low-SES (n = 2) communities. Results are suggestive that these interventions might be effective at reducing racial and/or SES disparities in pandemics.

Summary

There is a dearth of research on strategies to reduce pandemic disparities. We provide theory-driven, concrete suggestions for incorporating equity into intervention research for pandemic preparedness, including a focus on social and economic policies.

CAFOs, novel influenza, and the need for One Health approaches

Concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) present highly efficient means of meeting food demands. CAFOs create unique conditions that can affect the health and environment of animals and humans within and outside operations, leading to potential epidemiological concerns that scale with operational size. One such arena meriting further investigation is their possible contribution to novel influenzas. CAFOs present opportunities for cross-species transmission of influenza as demonstrated by reports of swine flu and avian influenza outbreaks. Conditions and pathways leading to novel influenza strains are complex and require varied prevention and intervention approaches. Current challenges for prevention of respiratory viruses entering or leaving swine and poultry CAFOs are multifaceted and include adherence of personal safety measures, lack of training and safety provisions for personnel, and incomplete standardized federal, state, and/or county regulation and enforcement coverage across agricultural systems. This report acknowledges that any proposed CAFO-associated influenza intervention should be cross-organizational, and no single intervention should be expected to provide full resolution. Proposed interventions affect multiple components of the One Health triad, and include seasonal human influenza immunization, PPE regulation and adherence, alternative waste management, general biosecurity standardization and an industry best practices incentive program. Due to the complexity of this problem, multiple anticipated communication, enforcement, and logistical challenges may hinder the full implementation of proposed solutions. General and operation-specific (swine and poultry) biosecurity practices may mitigate some of the risks associated with influenza virus reassortment across species. Education and advocacy can help protect workers, communities, veterinarians and consumers from CAFO-associated influenza virus. To achieve this, there must be more complete communication between CAFOs, governing agencies, health services, animal services, researchers, and consumers to better explore the potential health outcomes associated with CAFOs.

COVID-19 pandemic spread against countries' non-pharmaceutical interventions responses: a data-mining driven comparative study

Background

The first half of 2020 has been marked as the era of COVID-19 pandemic which affected the world globally in almost every aspect of the daily life from societal to economical. To prevent the spread of COVID-19, countries have implemented diverse policies regarding Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention (NPI) measures. This is because in the first stage countries had limited knowledge about the virus and its contagiousness. Also, there was no effective medication or vaccines. This paper studies the effectiveness of the implemented policies and measures against the deaths attributed to the virus between January and May 2020.

Methods

Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control regarding the identified cases and deaths of COVID-19 from 48 countries have been used. Additionally, data concerning the NPI measures related policies implemented by the 48 countries and the capacity of their health care systems was collected manually from their national gazettes and official institutes. Data mining, time series analysis, pattern detection, machine learning, clustering methods and visual analytics techniques have been applied to analyze the collected data and discover possible relationships between the implemented NPIs and COVID-19 spread and mortality. Further, we recorded and analyzed the responses of the countries against COVID-19 pandemic, mainly in urban areas which are over-populated and accordingly COVID-19 has the potential to spread easier among humans.

Results

The data mining and clustering analysis of the collected data showed that the implementation of the NPI measures before the first death case seems to be very effective in controlling the spread of the disease. In other words, delaying the implementation of the NPI measures to after the first death case has practically little effect on limiting the spread of the disease. The success of implementing the NPI measures further depends on the way each government monitored their application. Countries with stricter policing of the measures seems to be more effective in controlling the transmission of the disease.

Conclusions

The conducted comparative data mining study provides insights regarding the correlation between the early implementation of the NPI measures and controlling COVID-19 contagiousness and mortality. We reported a number of useful observations that could be very helpful to the decision makers or epidemiologists regarding the rapid implementation and monitoring of the NPI measures in case of a future wave of COVID-19 or to deal with other unknown infectious pandemics. Regardless, after the first wave of COVID-19, most countries have decided to lift the restrictions and return to normal. This has resulted in a severe second wave in some countries, a situation which requires re-evaluating the whole process and inspiring lessons for the future.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11251-4.

Improving pandemic preparedness through better, faster influenza vaccines

Introduction. Timely availability of effective influenza vaccine will be critical to mitigate the next influenza pandemic. The mission of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is to develop medical countermeasures against pandemics, including influenza and other health security threats.Areas covered. Despite considerable gains in pandemic vaccine preparedness since 2009, old and new challenges threaten the pandemic influenza response capabilities of the U.S. Government: insufficient U.S.-based vaccine production, two-dose vaccination regimen, logistically complex adjuvanted formulation, and sustained surge manufacturing capacity despite no commercial market for pandemic vaccines. Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has re-exposed these gaps in preparedness and response, previous investments into flexible influenza vaccine technologies proved to be critical to accelerate COVID-19 vaccine development.Expert opinion. BARDA addresses these challenges by implementing a pandemic influenza vaccine strategy with two key goals: 1) accelerating vaccine development and production (faster) and 2) improving vaccine performance (better). This strategy involves an end-to-end approach, including increasing manufacturing and fill-finish capacity; improving release testing speed; and funding clinical trials to improve current vaccine utilization. As demonstrated by the COVID-19 response, continued investments into this pandemic influenza vaccine strategy will further enhance the ability to respond to future emerging pandemic pathogens.

Repositioning chloroquine as antiviral prophylaxis against COVID-19: potential and challenges

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is advancing globally, and pharmaceutical prophylaxis is one solution. Here, we propose repositioning chloroquine (CQ) as prophylaxis against COVID-19. CQ blocks viral attachment and entry to host cells and demonstrates efficacy against a variety of viruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19. Furthermore, CQ is safe, inexpensive, and available. Here, we review the antiviral mechanisms of CQ, its in vitro activity against coronaviruses, its pharmacokinetics (PK) and adverse effects, and why it could be more efficacious as a prophylactic rather than as a therapeutic, given the infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We propose two prophylactic regimens based on efficacy and risk considerations. Although it is largely preclinical data that suggest the potential of CQ, properly planned prophylactic trials and further research are urgently needed.

European Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning: A Review of National Plans, July 2016

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) commenced in April 2009. Robust planning and preparedness are needed to minimize the impact of a pandemic. This study aims to review if key elements of pandemic preparedness are included in national plans of European countries. Key elements were identified before and during the evaluations of the 2009 pandemic and are defined in this study by 42 items. These items are used to score a total of 28 publicly available national pandemic influenza plans. We found that plans published before the 2009 influenza pandemic score lower than plans published after the pandemic. Plans from countries with a small population size score significantly lower compared to national plans from countries with a big population (P <.05). We stress that the review of written plans does not reflect the actual preparedness level, as the level of preparedness entails much more than the existence of a plan. However, we do identify areas of improvement for the written plans, such as including aspects on the recovery and transition phase and several opportunities to improve coordination and communication, including a description of the handover of leadership from health to wider sector management and communication activities during the pre-pandemic phase. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:582-592).

Non-Coding RNAs as Regulators and Markers for Targeting of Breast Cancer and Cancer Stem Cells

Breast cancer is regarded as a heterogeneous and complicated disease that remains the prime focus in the domain of public health concern. Next-generation sequencing technologies provided a new perspective dimension to non-coding RNAs, which were initially considered to be transcriptional noise or a product generated from erroneous transcription. Even though understanding of biological and molecular functions of noncoding RNA remains enigmatic, researchers have established the pivotal role of these RNAs in governing a plethora of biological phenomena that includes cancer-associated cellular processes such as proliferation, invasion, migration, apoptosis, and stemness. In addition to this, the transmission of microRNAs and long non-coding RNAs was identified as a source of communication to breast cancer cells either locally or systemically. The present review provides in-depth information with an aim at discovering the fundamental potential of non-coding RNAs, by providing knowledge of biogenesis and functional roles of micro RNA and long non-coding RNAs in breast cancer and breast cancer stem cells, as either oncogenic drivers or tumor suppressors. Furthermore, non-coding RNAs and their potential role as diagnostic and therapeutic moieties have also been summarized.

Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Social distancing is one of the community mitigation measures that may be recommended during influenza pandemics. Social distancing can reduce virus transmission by increasing physical distance or reducing frequency of congregation in socially dense community settings, such as schools or workplaces. We conducted a systematic review to assess the evidence that social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces reduces or slows influenza transmission.

METHODS

Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and EconLit to identify studies published in English from January 1, 2000, through May 3, 2017. Data extraction was done by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies, representing 12 modeling and three epidemiological, met the eligibility criteria. The epidemiological studies showed that social distancing was associated with a reduction in influenza-like illness and seroconversion to 2009 influenza A (H1N1). However, the overall risk of bias in the epidemiological studies was serious. The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population. It also delayed and reduced the peak influenza attack rate. The reduction in the cumulative attack rate was more pronounced when workplace social distancing was combined with other nonpharmaceutical or pharmaceutical interventions. However, the effectiveness was estimated to decline with higher basic reproduction number values, delayed triggering of workplace social distancing, or lower compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling studies support social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces, but there is a paucity of well-designed epidemiological studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO registration # CRD42017065310.

Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Social distancing is one of the community mitigation measures that may be recommended during influenza pandemics. Social distancing can reduce virus transmission by increasing physical distance or reducing frequency of congregation in socially dense community settings, such as schools or workplaces. We conducted a systematic review to assess the evidence that social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces reduces or slows influenza transmission.

METHODS

Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and EconLit to identify studies published in English from January 1, 2000, through May 3, 2017. Data extraction was done by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies, representing 12 modeling and three epidemiological, met the eligibility criteria. The epidemiological studies showed that social distancing was associated with a reduction in influenza-like illness and seroconversion to 2009 influenza A (H1N1). However, the overall risk of bias in the epidemiological studies was serious. The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population. It also delayed and reduced the peak influenza attack rate. The reduction in the cumulative attack rate was more pronounced when workplace social distancing was combined with other nonpharmaceutical or pharmaceutical interventions. However, the effectiveness was estimated to decline with higher basic reproduction number values, delayed triggering of workplace social distancing, or lower compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling studies support social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces, but there is a paucity of well-designed epidemiological studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO registration # CRD42017065310.

National assessment of Canadian pandemic preparedness: Employing InFluNet to identify high-risk areas for inter-wave vaccine distribution

BACKGROUND

Influenza pandemics emerge at irregular and unpredictable intervals to cause substantial health, economic and social burdens. Optimizing health-system response is vital to mitigating the consequences of future pandemics.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model to assess the preparedness of Canadian health systems to accommodate pandemic-related increases in patient demand. We identify vulnerable areas, assess the potential of inter-wave vaccination to mitigate impacts and evaluate the association between demographic and health-system characteristics in order to identify predictors of pandemic consequences.

RESULTS

Modelled average attack rates were 23.7-37.2% with no intervention and 2.5-6.4% with pre-vaccination. Peak acute-care demand was 7.5-19.5% of capacity with no intervention and 0.6-2.6% with pre-vaccination. The peak ICU demand was 39.3-101.8% with no intervention and 2.9-13.3% with pre-vaccination. Total mortality was 2258-7944 with no intervention and 88-472 with pre-vaccination. Regions of Southern Ontario were identified as most vulnerable to surges in patient demand. The strongest predictors of peak acute-care demand and ICU demand were acute-care bed capacity (R = -0.8697; r2 = 0.7564) and ICU bed capacity (R = -0.8151; r2 = 0.6644), respectively. Demographic characteristics had mild associations with predicted pandemic consequences.

CONCLUSION

Inter-wave vaccination provided adequate acute-care resource protection under all scenarios; ICU resource adequacy was protected under mild disease assumptions, but moderate and severe diseases caused demand to exceed expected availability in 21% and 49% of study areas, respectively. Our study informs priority vaccine distribution strategies for pandemic planning, emphasizing the need for targeted early vaccine distribution to high-risk individuals and areas.

Influenza: a world of discoveries, outbreaks and controversy

Working in an area such as influenza is a free ticket into science communication, a pathway aided amply by the amazing evolutionary powers of the virus; regular outbreaks keep the media engaged and the audience keen. Everyone has heard of flu, and they probably already have an opinion: 'I don't take the vaccine, it gives me the flu anyway.' 'Didn't the government waste loads of money on that Tamiflu drug that doesn't work?' 'I've never had flu because I eat a banana every day and sleep with a boiled onion when I've sat next to someone on the train who was coughing.' Such muddled messages and folklore fallacies could be very damaging unless we as scientists stand up and correct them. In addition, there are wider ethical debates around sharing data from clinical trials and the acceptable limits of scientific research to which we must all contribute.