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Wu G, Zhang W, Wu W, Wang P, Huang Z, Wu Y, Li J, Zhang W, Du Z, Hao Y. Revisiting the complex time-varying effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in the United States. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1343950. [PMID: 38450145 PMCID: PMC10915018 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1343950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2023] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Although the global COVID-19 emergency ended, the real-world effects of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the relative contribution of individual NPIs over time were poorly understood, limiting the mitigation of future potential epidemics. Methods Based on four large-scale datasets including epidemic parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and meteorological factors across 51 states in the United States from August 2020 to July 2022, we established a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spike-and-slab prior to assessing the time-varying effect of NPIs and vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 transmission and identifying important NPIs in the context of different variants pandemic. Results We found that (i) the empirical reduction in reproduction number attributable to integrated NPIs was 52.0% (95%CI: 44.4, 58.5%) by August and September 2020, whereas the reduction continuously decreased due to the relaxation of NPIs in following months; (ii) international travel restrictions, stay-at-home requirements, and restrictions on gathering size were important NPIs with the relative contribution higher than 12.5%; (iii) vaccination alone could not mitigate transmission when the fully vaccination coverage was less than 60%, but it could effectively synergize with NPIs; (iv) even with fully vaccination coverage >60%, combined use of NPIs and vaccination failed to reduce the reproduction number below 1 in many states by February 2022 because of elimination of above NPIs, following with a resurgence of COVID-19 after March 2022. Conclusion Our results suggest that NPIs and vaccination had a high synergy effect and eliminating NPIs should consider their relative effectiveness, vaccination coverage, and emerging variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gonghua Wu
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wanfang Zhang
- Guangzhou Liwan District Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wenjing Wu
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Pengyu Wang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zitong Huang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yueqian Wu
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Junxi Li
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wangjian Zhang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhicheng Du
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Center for Health Information Research & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
- Guangzhou Joint Research Center for Disease Surveillance and Risk Assessment, Sun Yat-sen University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yuantao Hao
- Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness and Response, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases, Peking University, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China
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Sabbatini CE, Pullano G, Di Domenico L, Rubrichi S, Bansal S, Colizza V. The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:21. [PMID: 38166649 PMCID: PMC10763474 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08900-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND France implemented a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to manage the COVID-19 pandemic between September 2020 and June 2021. These included a lockdown in the fall 2020 - the second since the start of the pandemic - to counteract the second wave, followed by a long period of nighttime curfew, and by a third lockdown in the spring 2021 against the Alpha wave. Interventions have so far been evaluated in isolation, neglecting the spatial connectivity between regions through mobility that may impact NPI effectiveness. METHODS Focusing on September 2020-June 2021, we developed a regionally-based epidemic metapopulation model informed by observed mobility fluxes from daily mobile phone data and fitted the model to regional hospital admissions. The model integrated data on vaccination and variants spread. Scenarios were designed to assess the impact of the Alpha variant, characterized by increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalization, of the vaccination campaign and alternative policy decisions. RESULTS The spatial model better captured the heterogeneity observed in the regional dynamics, compared to models neglecting inter-regional mobility. The third lockdown was similarly effective to the second lockdown after discounting for immunity, Alpha, and seasonality (51% vs 52% median regional reduction in the reproductive number R0, respectively). The 6pm nighttime curfew with bars and restaurants closed, implemented in January 2021, substantially reduced COVID-19 transmission. It initially led to 49% median regional reduction of R0, decreasing to 43% reduction by March 2021. In absence of vaccination, implemented interventions would have been insufficient against the Alpha wave. Counterfactual scenarios proposing a sequence of lockdowns in a stop-and-go fashion would have reduced hospitalizations and restriction days for low enough thresholds triggering and lifting restrictions. CONCLUSIONS Spatial connectivity induced by mobility impacted the effectiveness of interventions especially in regions with higher mobility rates. Early evening curfew with gastronomy sector closed allowed authorities to delay the third wave. Stop-and-go lockdowns could have substantially lowered both healthcare and societal burdens if implemented early enough, compared to the observed application of lockdown-curfew-lockdown, but likely at the expense of several labor sectors. These findings contribute to characterize the effectiveness of implemented strategies and improve pandemic preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chiara E Sabbatini
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Paris, France
| | - Giulia Pullano
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Laura Di Domenico
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Paris, France
| | - Stefania Rubrichi
- Orange Labs, Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services (SENSE), Chatillon, France
| | - Shweta Bansal
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Vittoria Colizza
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Paris, France.
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Gharpure R, Olsen SJ, Davis WW. Quantified impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 African countries, 2020-2022. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024; 18:e13241. [PMID: 38249442 PMCID: PMC10796249 DOI: 10.1111/irv.13241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2023] [Revised: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/10/2023] [Indexed: 01/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for SARS-CoV-2 disrupted circulation of influenza. We used data from 13 African countries and generalized linear models to identify associations between levels of NPIs, using the Oxford Stringency Index, and seasonal influenza activity, using parameters derived from 2020-2022 seasonal influenza surveillance. We found that for each step increase in school closings, the average percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza across the influenza season dropped by 20% (95% CI: 1-38%); no other NPI was significant. These findings may inform interventions to slow influenza circulation in pandemics and possibly during seasonal epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Radhika Gharpure
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - Sonja J. Olsen
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - William W. Davis
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
- Thailand MOPH‐U.S. CDC CollaborationNonthaburiThailand
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Zhou J, Pang Y, Wang H, Li W, Liu J, Luo Z, Shao W, Zhang H. Sewage network operational risks based on InfoWorks ICM with nodal flow diurnal patterns under NPIs for COVID-19. Water Res 2023; 246:120708. [PMID: 37827041 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2023.120708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2022] [Revised: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 10/06/2023] [Indexed: 10/14/2023]
Abstract
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) have been widely employed globally over the past three years to control the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These measures have imposed restrictions on urban residents' activities and significantly influenced sewage discharge characteristics within sewage network, particularly in densely populated cities in China. This study focused on the nodal flow diurnal patterns and sewage network operational risks before and after epidemic lockdown in Beijing from March to May in 2022. Nodal flow diurnal patterns on weekdays and weekends before and after NPIs were analyzed using measured data through statistical and mathematical methods. A sewage network model was established to simulate and analyze the operational risks based on InfoWorks ICM before and after epidemic lockdown. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) In predominantly residential areas, the total wastewater volume increased by approximately 28.76 % to 33.52 % after the implementation of strict NPIs. The morning and midday "M" peaks on normalized weekdays transformed into "N" peaks, and the morning peak time was delayed by 0.5 to 1 hour after the lockdown; (2) Following NPIs, More than 90 % of manholes' average water levels rose to varying degrees, approximately 50 % of pipe lengths exhibited a full flow state; (3) When the lockdown was in place during a hot summer day, sewage overflow phenomena were observed in 4.6 % and 9.6 % of manholes, respectively, with per capita daily drainage equivalent reaching 40-50 %. These findings hold significant implications for the proactive planning and operational management of water industry infrastructure during major emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinjun Zhou
- Faculty of architecture, civil and transportation engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
| | - Yali Pang
- Faculty of architecture, civil and transportation engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
| | - Hao Wang
- Faculty of architecture, civil and transportation engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.
| | - Wentao Li
- Faculty of architecture, civil and transportation engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
| | - Jiahong Liu
- China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing 100038, China
| | - Zhuoran Luo
- School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Weiwei Shao
- China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing 100038, China
| | - Haijia Zhang
- Faculty of architecture, civil and transportation engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
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De Gaetano A, Bajardi P, Gozzi N, Perra N, Perrotta D, Paolotti D. Behavioral Changes Associated With COVID-19 Vaccination: Cross-National Online Survey. J Med Internet Res 2023; 25:e47563. [PMID: 37906219 PMCID: PMC10646669 DOI: 10.2196/47563] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Revised: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 11/02/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the initial phases of the vaccination campaign worldwide, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remained pivotal in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, it is important to understand how the arrival of vaccines affected the adoption of NPIs. Indeed, some individuals might have seen the start of mass vaccination campaigns as the end of the emergency and, as a result, relaxed their COVID-safe behaviors, facilitating the spread of the virus in a delicate epidemic phase such as the initial rollout. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to collect information about the possible relaxation of protective behaviors following key events of the vaccination campaign in four countries and to analyze possible associations of these behavioral tendencies with the sociodemographic characteristics of participants. METHODS We developed an online survey named "COVID-19 Prevention and Behavior Survey" that was conducted between November 26 and December 22, 2021. Participants were recruited using targeted ads on Facebook in four different countries: Brazil, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. We measured the onset of relaxation of protective measures in response to key events of the vaccination campaign, namely personal vaccination and vaccination of the most vulnerable population. Through calculation of odds ratios (ORs) and regression analysis, we assessed the strength of association between compliance with NPIs and sociodemographic characteristics of participants. RESULTS We received 2263 questionnaires from the four countries. Participants reported the most significant changes in social activities such as going to a restaurant or the cinema and visiting relatives and friends. This is in good agreement with validated psychological models of health-related behavioral change such as the Health Belief Model, according to which activities with higher costs and perceived barriers (eg, social activities) are more prone to early relaxation. Multivariate analysis using a generalized linear model showed that the two main determinants of the drop of social NPIs were (1) having previously tested positive for COVID-19 (after the second vaccine dose: OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.73-3.49) and (2) living with people at risk (after the second vaccine dose: OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.22-2.03). CONCLUSIONS This work shows that particular caution has to be taken during vaccination campaigns. Indeed, people might relax their safe behaviors regardless of the dynamics of the epidemic. For this reason, it is crucial to maintain high compliance with NPIs to avoid hindering the beneficial effects of the vaccine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessandro De Gaetano
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
- Aix Marseille Univ, Université de Toulon, CNRS, CPT, Marseille, France
| | - Paolo Bajardi
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
- CENTAI Institute, Turin, Italy
| | - Nicolò Gozzi
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
- Networks and Urban Systems Centre, University of Greenwich, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nicola Perra
- Networks and Urban Systems Centre, University of Greenwich, London, United Kingdom
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Daniela Perrotta
- Laboratory of Digital and Computational Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
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Pragya, Kumar A, Manish, Ranjan R, Jha NK. The comparative study of skin staples and polypropylene sutures for securing the mesh in Lichtenstein's tension-free inguinal hernia repair in HIV and hepatitis (B and C)-positive patients: a randomized controlled trial. Ann Med Surg (Lond) 2023; 85:4389-4393. [PMID: 37663727 PMCID: PMC10473349 DOI: 10.1097/ms9.0000000000001119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The mesh fixation in the Lichtenstein's hernioplasty was traditionally performed with polypropylene sutures. A modification of this technique uses skin staples for securing the mesh. Using polypropylene sutures may increase the needle prick injuries (NPIs) in HIV and hepatitis-positive patients. This is the first study in India to compare the efficacy of anchoring the mesh with skin staplers and polypropylene sutures in hepatitis and HIV-positive patients. Methods Fifty-two seropositive patients undergoing sixty repairs were randomized into two groups. In the control group polypropylene mesh was secured with polypropylene sutures and the skin was closed with ethilon. In the study group polypropylene mesh was secured with skin staples and the skin was closed with staples from the same stapler. Duration of surgery, postoperative complications, NPIs, recurrences and costs were compared. Results The operation was significantly shorter when staples were used (median 46 vs. 57 min, P<0.00001). There was no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative complications. The NPIs was statistically significant in the suture group as compared to the stapler group (P<0.05). Conclusion Using skin staples to secure the mesh in Lichtenstein inguinal hernioplasty significantly reduced the duration of surgery. It was as effective as conventional mesh fixation with polypropylene with added advantages to reduce the operating time, duration of exposure to infected blood, and the NPIs significantly in HIV, hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus-positive patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pragya
- Departments of General surgery
| | - Anil Kumar
- Trauma Surgery and Critical Care, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna
| | - Manish
- Department of General Surgery, NMCH, Sasaram, India
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Mabuka T, Ncube N, Ross M, Silaji A, Macharia W, Ndemera T, Lemeke T. The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1492. [PMID: 37542267 PMCID: PMC10403893 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16162-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 08/06/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE In this study, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 NPIs in South Africa to understand their effectiveness in the reduction of transmission of COVID-19 in the South African population. This study also investigated the COVID-19 testing, reporting, hospitalised cases, excess deaths and COVID-19 modelling in the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa. METHODS A semi-reactive stochastic COVID-19 model, the ARI COVID-19 SEIR model, was used to investigate the impact of NPIs in South Africa to understand their effectiveness in the reduction of COVID-19 transmission in the South African population. COVID-19 testing, reporting, hospitalised cases and excess deaths in the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa were investigated using regressional analysis and descriptive statistics. FINDINGS The general trend in population movement in South African locations shows that the COVID-19 NPIs (National Lockdown Alert Levels 5,4,3,2) were approximately 30% more effective in reducing population movement concerning each increase by 1 Alert Level. The translated reduction in the effective SARS-CoV-2 daily contact number (β) was 6.12% to 36.1% concerning increasing Alert Levels. Due to the implemented NPIs, the effective SARS-CoV-2 daily contact number in the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa was reduced by 58.1-71.1% while the peak was delayed by 84 days. The estimated COVID-19 reproductive number was between 1.98 to 0.40. During South Africa's first COVID-19 epidemic wave, the mean COVID-19 admission status in South African hospitals was 58.5%, 95% CI [58.1-59.0] in the general ward, 13.4%, 95% CI [13.1-13.7] in the intensive care unit, 13.3%, 95% CI [12.6-14.0] on oxygen, 6.37%, 95% CI [6.23-6.51] in high care, 6.29%, 95% CI [6.02-6.55] on ventilator and 2.13%, 95% CI [1.87-2.43] in isolation ward respectively. The estimated mean South African COVID-19 patient discharge rate was 11.9 days per patient. While the estimated mean of the South African COVID-19 patient case fatality rate (CFR) in hospital and outside the hospital was 2.06%, 95% CI [1.86-2.25] (deaths per admitted patients) and 2.30%, 95% CI [1.12-3.83](deaths per severe and critical cases) respectively. The relatively high coefficient of variance in COVID-19 model outputs observed in this study shows the uncertainty in the accuracy of the reviewed COVID-19 models in predicting the severity of COVID-19. However, the reviewed COVID-19 models were accurate in predicting the progression of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa. CONCLUSION The results from this study show that the COVID-19 NPI policies implemented by the Government of South Africa played a significant role in the reduction of COVID-19 active, hospitalised cases and deaths in South Africa's first COVID-19 epidemic wave. The results also show the use of COVID-19 modelling to understand the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of regressor variables in an epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thabo Mabuka
- African COVID-19 Modelling Research Group (ACMRG), The Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI), Cape Town, South Africa.
| | - Nesisa Ncube
- African COVID-19 Modelling Research Group (ACMRG), The Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI), Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Michael Ross
- African COVID-19 Modelling Research Group (ACMRG), The Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI), Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Andrea Silaji
- African COVID-19 Modelling Research Group (ACMRG), The Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI), Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Willie Macharia
- African COVID-19 Modelling Research Group (ACMRG), The Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI), Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Tinashe Ndemera
- African COVID-19 Modelling Research Group (ACMRG), The Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI), Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Tlaleng Lemeke
- African COVID-19 Modelling Research Group (ACMRG), The Afrikan Research Initiative (ARI), Cape Town, South Africa
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Thi Hong Nguyen N, Ou TY, Huy LD, Shih CL, Chang YM, Phan TP, Huang CC. A global analysis of COVID-19 infection fatality rate and its associated factors during the Delta and Omicron variant periods: an ecological study. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1145138. [PMID: 37333556 PMCID: PMC10274323 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1145138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more highly infectious and transmissible than prior variants of concern. It was unclear which factors might have contributed to the alteration of COVID-19 cases and deaths during the Delta and Omicron variant periods. This study aimed to compare the COVID-19 average weekly infection fatality rate (AWIFR), investigate factors associated with COVID-19 AWIFR, and explore the factors linked to the increase in COVID-19 AWIFR between two periods of Delta and Omicron variants. Materials and methods An ecological study has been conducted among 110 countries over the first 12 weeks during two periods of Delta and Omicron variant dominance using open publicly available datasets. Our analysis included 102 countries in the Delta period and 107 countries in the Omicron period. Linear mixed-effects models and linear regression models were used to explore factors associated with the variation of AWIFR over Delta and Omicron periods. Findings During the Delta period, the lower AWIFR was witnessed in countries with better government effectiveness index [β = -0.762, 95% CI (-1.238)-(-0.287)] and higher proportion of the people fully vaccinated [β = -0.385, 95% CI (-0.629)-(-0.141)]. In contrast, a higher burden of cardiovascular diseases was positively associated with AWIFR (β = 0.517, 95% CI 0.102-0.932). Over the Omicron period, while years lived with disability (YLD) caused by metabolism disorders (β = 0.843, 95% CI 0.486-1.2), the proportion of the population aged older than 65 years (β = 0.737, 95% CI 0.237-1.238) was positively associated with poorer AWIFR, and the high proportion of the population vaccinated with a booster dose [β = -0.321, 95% CI (-0.624)-(-0.018)] was linked with the better outcome. Over two periods of Delta and Omicron, the increase in government effectiveness index was associated with a decrease in AWIFR [β = -0.438, 95% CI (-0.750)-(-0.126)]; whereas, higher death rates caused by diabetes and kidney (β = 0.472, 95% CI 0.089-0.855) and percentage of population aged older than 65 years (β = 0.407, 95% CI 0.013-0.802) were associated with a significant increase in AWIFR. Conclusion The COVID-19 infection fatality rates were strongly linked with the coverage of vaccination rate, effectiveness of government, and health burden related to chronic diseases. Therefore, proper policies for the improvement of vaccination coverage and support of vulnerable groups could substantially mitigate the burden of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nhi Thi Hong Nguyen
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Health Personnel Training Institute, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue University, Hue, Vietnam
| | - Tsong-Yih Ou
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Taipei Municipal Wanfang Hospital-Managed by Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Nursing, Cardinal Tien Junior College of Healthcare and Management, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Medical Quality, Taipei Municipal Wanfang Hospital-Managed by Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Le Duc Huy
- Health Personnel Training Institute, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue University, Hue, Vietnam
| | - Chung-Liang Shih
- National Health Insurance Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yao-Mao Chang
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Thanh-Phuc Phan
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- International Ph.D. Program in Biotech and Healthcare Management, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- University of Medical Center, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Chung-Chien Huang
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Medical Quality, Taipei Municipal Wanfang Hospital-Managed by Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- International Ph.D. Program in Biotech and Healthcare Management, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Long-Term Care, School of Gerontology Health Management, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department and School of Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
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Steinegger B, Granell C, Rapisardi G, Gómez S, Matamalas J, Soriano-Paños D, Gómez-Gardeñes J, Arenas A. Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2023; 9:e40514. [PMID: 37213190 PMCID: PMC10208305 DOI: 10.2196/40514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 12/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/23/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. OBJECTIVE In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. METHODS We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. RESULTS Our analysis demonstrated that the pre-national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Joan Matamalas
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States
| | - David Soriano-Paños
- Department of Condensed Matter Physics, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
| | | | - Alex Arenas
- Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain
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10
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Lawson A, Rotejanaprasert C. Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Prediction and Counterfactual Generation: An Application in Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in COVID-19. Viruses 2023; 15:v15020325. [PMID: 36851538 PMCID: PMC9965276 DOI: 10.3390/v15020325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2022] [Revised: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
The spatio-temporal course of an epidemic (such as COVID-19) can be significantly affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as full or partial lockdowns. Bayesian Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models can be applied to the spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases (STIFs) (such as COVID-19). In causal inference, it is classically of interest to investigate the counterfactuals. In the context of STIF, it is possible to use nowcasting to assess the possible counterfactual realization of disease in an incidence that would have been evidenced with no NPI. Classic lagged dependency spatio-temporal IF models are discussed, and the importance of the ST component in nowcasting is assessed. Real examples of lockdowns for COVID-19 in two US states during 2020 and 2021 are provided. The degeneracy in prediction over longer time periods is highlighted, and the wide confidence intervals characterize the forecasts. For SC, the early and short lockdown contrasted with the longer NJ intervention. The approach here demonstrated marked differences in spatio-temporal disparities across counties with respect to an adherence to counterfactual predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Lawson
- Department of Public Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC 29466, USA
- Usher Institute, School of Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4TJ, UK
- Correspondence:
| | - Chawarat Rotejanaprasert
- Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
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11
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Wang BG, Wang ZC, Wu Y, Xiong Y, Zhang J, Ma Z. A mathematical model reveals the influence of NPIs and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant. Nonlinear Dyn 2023; 111:3937-3952. [PMID: 36339320 PMCID: PMC9628561 DOI: 10.1007/s11071-022-07985-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 09/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
An SVEIR SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant model is proposed to provide some insights to coordinate non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number R 0 and the effective reproduction number R e to measure the infection potential of Omicron variant and formulate an optimal disease control strategy. Our inversion results imply that the sick period of Omicron variant in the United States is longer than that of Delta variant in India. The decrease in the infectious period of the infection with infectiousness implies that the risk of hospitalization is reduced; but the increasing period of the infection with non-infectiousness signifies that Omicron variant lengthens the period of nucleic acid test being negative. Optimistically, Omicron's death rate is only a quarter of Delta's. Moreover, we forecast that the cumulative cases will exceed 100 million in the United States on February 28, 2022, and the daily confirmed cases will reach a peak on February 2, 2022. The results of parameters sensitivity analysis imply that NPIs are helpful to reduce the number of confirmed cases. In particular, NPIs are indispensable even if all the people were vaccinated when the efficiency of vaccine is relatively low. By simulating the relationships of the effective reproduction number R e , the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine, we find that it is impossible to achieve the herd immunity without NPIs while the efficiency of vaccine is lower than 88.7 % . Therefore, the herd immunity area is defined by the evolution of relationships between the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine. Finally, we present that the disease-induced mortality rate demonstrates the periodic oscillation and an almost periodic function is deduced to match the curve. A discussion completes the paper.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bin-Guo Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhi-Cheng Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Wu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Yongping Xiong
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiangqian Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhuihui Ma
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
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12
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Kenarkoohi A, Mohamadi J, Pakzad I, Sayyadi H, Falahi S. COVID-19 Mass Vaccination and Flu Season: Concern for Decreased Public Health Measures and Worsening the Influenza Situation. Infect Disord Drug Targets 2022; 23:e030922208520. [PMID: 36056829 DOI: 10.2174/1871526522666220903145208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2022] [Revised: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/21/2022] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
Reports show that other ordinary childhood infections like measles or influenza are likely to reemerge. The re-emergence of infectious diseases may happen due to the direct impact of the pandemic on the community because of decreased access to health and medical services, interrupted transport systems, weaknesses in the supply chain, flight restrictions, closings of the border, and international trade problems. The most prevalent cause (60.9%) for low vaccine uptake and coverage during the current pandemic was fear of exposure to the COVID-19 virus outside the home. The expectation and hope that the pattern of reduction in transmission and number of influenza cases will continue over the next flu season depend on continued adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions and their long-term application. But there is always the fear and threat of increasing the spread of influenza by reducing the movement restrictions and low adherence to protective health measures due to vaccination. So far, not much information has been published about the interaction between different infectious diseases in the background of the coronavirus pandemic and related interventions. The purpose of this article is to examine the general effects of the COVID-19 vaccination on the spread of influenza in the coming seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Azra Kenarkoohi
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
| | - Jasem Mohamadi
- Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Emam Khomeini Hospital, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
| | - Iraj Pakzad
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
| | - Hojjat Sayyadi
- Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
| | - Shahab Falahi
- Zoonotic Diseases Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
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13
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Althobaity Y, Wu J, Tildesley MJ. Non-pharmaceutical interventions and their relevance in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf countries. Infect Dis Model 2022; 7:545-560. [PMID: 36035780 PMCID: PMC9391232 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Revised: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
In the early stages of the pandemic, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Arab Gulf region relied on non-pharmaceutical therapies to limit the effect of the pandemic, much like other nations across the world. In comparison to other nations in the area or globally, these interventions were successful at lowering the healthcare burden. This was accomplished via the deterioration of the economy, education, and a variety of other societal activities. By the end of 2020, the promise of effective vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 have been realized, and vaccination programs have begun in developed countries, followed by the rest of the world. Despite this, there is still a long way to go in the fight against the disease. In order to explore disease transmission, vaccine rollout and prioritisation, as well as behavioural dynamics, we relied on an age-structured compartmental model. We examine how individual and social behaviour changes in response to the initiation of vaccination campaigns and the relaxation of non-pharmacological treatments. Overall, vaccination remains the most effective method of containing the disease and resuming normal life. Additionally, we evaluate several vaccination prioritisation schemes based on age group, behavioural responses, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination rollout speed. We applied our model to four Arab Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman), which were chosen for their low mortality rate compared to other countries in the region or worldwide, as well as their demographic and economic settings. We fitted the model using actual pandemic data in these countries. Our results suggest that vaccinations focused on the elderly and rapid vaccine distribution are critical for reducing disease resurgence. Our result also reinforces the cautious note that early relaxation of safety measures may compromise the vaccine's short-term advantages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yehya Althobaity
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom
- Department of Mathematics, Taif University, Taif, P. O. Box 11099, Saudi Arabia
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Michael J. Tildesley
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom
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14
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Dergiades T, Milas C, Panagiotidis T. Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S. Econ Model 2022; 113:105891. [PMID: 35578632 PMCID: PMC9094650 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2021] [Revised: 04/24/2022] [Accepted: 05/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Governments want to know how effective COVID-19 anti-contagion policies and implemented economic stimulus measures have been to plan their short-run interventions. We condition on the state of the pandemic to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic stimulus policies on the excess unemployment insurance claims in the United States. We focus on weekly data between February 2020 and January 2021 and motivate our analysis by the theoretical framework of the second-wave SIR-macro type models to build a panel Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) specification. Non-pharmaceutical interventions become effective immediately and impact the labor market negatively. Economic stimulus takes about a month to turn effective and only partially eases the economic welfare losses. Health-related restrictive measures are primarily driven by the state of the pandemic. Economic support policies depend predominantly on the reaction of the labor market rather than the severity of the pandemic itself.
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15
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Garrett AD. The cross-over of statistical thinking and practices: A pandemic catalyst. Pharm Stat 2022; 21:778-789. [PMID: 35819112 PMCID: PMC9349759 DOI: 10.1002/pst.2221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2022] [Revised: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 03/23/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Written during the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic, and in recognition of Andy Grieve, the polymath, this article looks at an eclectic mix of topics where statistical thinking and practices should transcend typical dividing lines—with a particular focus on the areas of drug development, public health and social science. The case is made for embedding an experimental (or quasi‐experimental) framework within clinical practice for vaccines and treatments following their marketing authorisation. A similar case is made for public health interventions—facilitated by pre‐specification of effect size and by the greater use of data standards. A number of recommendations are made whilst noting that progress is being made in some areas.
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16
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Wagatsuma K, Koolhof IS, Saito R. Was the Reduction in Seasonal Influenza Transmission during 2020 Attributable to Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Contain Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan? Viruses 2022; 14:v14071417. [PMID: 35891397 PMCID: PMC9320739 DOI: 10.3390/v14071417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Revised: 06/04/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
We quantified the effects of adherence to various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the seasonal influenza epidemic dynamics in Japan during 2020. The total monthly number of seasonal influenza cases per sentinel site (seasonal influenza activity) reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases and alternative NPI indicators (retail sales of hand hygiene products and number of airline passenger arrivals) from 2014−2020 were collected. The average number of monthly seasonal influenza cases in 2020 had decreased by approximately 66.0% (p < 0.001) compared to those in the preceding six years. An increase in retail sales of hand hygiene products of ¥1 billion over a 3-month period led to a 15.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.9−20.0%; p < 0.001) reduction in seasonal influenza activity. An increase in the average of one million domestic and international airline passenger arrivals had a significant association with seasonal influenza activity by 11.6% at lag 0−2 months (95% CI: 6.70−16.5%; p < 0.001) and 30.9% at lag 0−2 months (95% CI: 20.9−40.9%; p < 0.001). NPI adherence was associated with decreased seasonal influenza activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, which has crucial implications for planning public health interventions to minimize the health consequences of adverse seasonal influenza epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keita Wagatsuma
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan;
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-0083, Japan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +81-25-227-2129
| | - Iain S. Koolhof
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia;
| | - Reiko Saito
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan;
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17
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Huy LD, Shih CL, Chang YM, Nguyen NTH, Phuc PT, Ou TY, Huang CC. Comparison of COVID-19 Resilience Index and Its Associated Factors across 29 Countries during the Delta and Omicron Variant Periods. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10060940. [PMID: 35746548 PMCID: PMC9228202 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10060940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Revised: 05/21/2022] [Accepted: 06/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Our study aims to compare the pandemic resilience index and explore the associated factors during the Delta and Omicron variant periods. In addition, the study aims to identify the characteristics of countries that had good performances. We analyzed observation data among 29 countries over the first eight weeks during the two periods of Delta and Omicron variant dominance. Data were extracted from open public databases. The Omicron variant caused a lowered mortality rate per 100,000 COVID-19 patients; however, it is still imposing a colossal burden on health care systems. We found the percentage of the population fully vaccinated and high government indices were significantly associated with a better resilience index in both the Delta and Omicron periods. In contrast, the higher death rate of cancers and greater years lived with disability (YLD) caused by low bone density were linked with poor resilience index in the Omicron periods. Over two periods of Delta and Omicron, countries with good performance had a lower death rate from chronic diseases and lower YLD caused by nutrition deficiency and PM2.5. Our findings suggest that governments need to keep enhancing the vaccine coverage rates, developing interventions for populations with chronic diseases and nutrition deficiency to mitigate COVID-19 impacts on these targeted vulnerable cohorts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Le Duc Huy
- Health Personnel Training Institute, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue University, Hue 49120, Vietnam; (L.D.H.); (N.T.H.N.)
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 10675, Taiwan; (Y.-M.C.); (P.T.P.)
| | | | - Yao-Mao Chang
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 10675, Taiwan; (Y.-M.C.); (P.T.P.)
- Research Center of Health and Welfare Policy, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 11031, Taiwan
| | - Nhi Thi Hong Nguyen
- Health Personnel Training Institute, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue University, Hue 49120, Vietnam; (L.D.H.); (N.T.H.N.)
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 10675, Taiwan; (Y.-M.C.); (P.T.P.)
| | - Phan Thanh Phuc
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 10675, Taiwan; (Y.-M.C.); (P.T.P.)
- International Ph.D. Program in Biotech and Healthcare Management, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 10675, Taiwan
- Department of Social Work, University Medical Center, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam
| | - Tsong-Yih Ou
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 11696, Taiwan;
- Department of Nursing, Cardinal Tien Junior College of Healthcare and Management, New Taipei 23143, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Chien Huang
- School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 10675, Taiwan; (Y.-M.C.); (P.T.P.)
- International Ph.D. Program in Biotech and Healthcare Management, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 10675, Taiwan
- Department of Long-Term Care and School of Gerontology Health Management, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 11031, Taiwan
- Department and School of Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 11031, Taiwan
- Department of Medical Quality, Taipei Municipal Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei 11696, Taiwan
- Correspondence:
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18
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Toffolutti V, Plach S, Maksimovic T, Piccitto G, Mascherini M, Mencarini L, Aassve A. The association between COVID-19 policy responses and mental well-being: Evidence from 28 European countries. Soc Sci Med 2022; 301:114906. [PMID: 35313221 PMCID: PMC8920116 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2021] [Revised: 02/27/2022] [Accepted: 03/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
This study assesses how the implementation and lifting of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), deployed by most governments, to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, were associated with individuals' mental well-being (MWB) across 28 European countries. This is done both for the general population and across key-groups. We analyze longitudinal data for 15,147 respondents from three waves of the Eurofound-"Living, Working and COVID-19" survey, covering the period April 2020-March 2021. MWB is measured by the WHO-5 index. Our evidence suggests that restriction on international travel, private gatherings, and contact tracing (workplace closures) were negatively (positively) associated with MWB by about, respectively, -0.63 [95% CI: -0.79 to -0.47], -0.24 [95% CI: -0.38 to -0.10], and -0.22 [95% CI: -0.36 to -0.08] (0.29 [95% CI: 0.11 to 0.48]) points. These results correspond to -3.9%, -1.5%, and -1.4% (+1.8%) changes compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, these findings mask important group-differences. Women compared to men fared worse under stay-at-home requirements, internal movement restrictions, private gatherings restrictions, public events cancellation, school closures, and workplace closures. Those residing with children below 12, compared to those who do not, fared worse under public events cancellation, school closures and workplace closures. Conversely, those living with children 12-17, compared to those who do not, fared better under internal movement restrictions and public events cancelling. Western-Europeans vis-à-vis Eastern-Europeans fared better under NPIs limiting their mobility and easing their debts, whereas they fared worse under health-related NPIs. This study provides timely evidence of the rise in inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic and offers strategies for mitigating them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veronica Toffolutti
- Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation, Department of Economics & Public Policy, Imperial College London - Business School, Exhibition Road, South Kensington, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy.
| | - Samuel Plach
- "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy.
| | - Teodora Maksimovic
- "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy.
| | - Giorgio Piccitto
- "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy.
| | - Massimiliano Mascherini
- European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, Wyattville Road, Loughlinstown, Co. Dublin, D18 KP65, Ireland.
| | - Letizia Mencarini
- "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy; Department of Social and Political Science, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy.
| | - Arnstein Aassve
- "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy; Department of Social and Political Science, Bocconi University, Via G. Roentgen, 1, 20136, Milano, Italy.
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Zhao Z, Zheng C, Qi H, Chen Y, Ward MP, Liu F, Hong J, Su Q, Huang J, Chen X, Le J, Liu X, Ren M, Ba J, Zhang Z, Chang Z, Li Z. Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in mainland China. Lancet Reg Health West Pac 2022; 20:100362. [PMID: 35005671 PMCID: PMC8720138 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Background In early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented in China to reduce and contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. These NPIs might have also reduced the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). Methods The weekly numbers of HFMD cases and meteorological factors in 31 provincial capital cities and municipalities in mainland China were obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) and National Meteorological Information Center of China from 2016 to 2020. The NPI data were collected from local CDCs. The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for the entire year of 2020, and for January-July 2020 and August-December 2020. The expected case numbers were estimated using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. The relationships between kindergarten closures and incidence of HFMD were quantified using a generalized additive model. The estimated associations from all cities were pooled using a multivariate meta-regression model. Findings Stringent NPIs were widely implemented for COVID-19 control from January to July 2020, and the IRRs for HFMD were less than 1 in all 31 cities, and less than 0·1 for 23 cities. Overall, the proportion of HFMD cases reduced by 52·9% (95% CI: 49·3-55·5%) after the implementation of kindergarten closures in 2020, and this effect was generally consistent across subgroups. Interpretation The decrease in HFMD incidence was strongly associated with the NPIs for COVID-19. HFMD epidemic peaks were either absent or delayed, and the final epidemic size was reduced. Kindergarten closure is an intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Funding This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81973102 & 81773487), Public Health Talents Training Program of Shanghai Municipality (GWV-10.2-XD21), the Shanghai New Three-year Action Plan for Public Health (GWV-10.1-XK16), the Major Project of Scientific and Technical Winter Olympics from National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFF0306000), 13th Five-Year National Science and Technology Major Project for Infectious Diseases (2018ZX10725-509) and Key projects of the PLA logistics Scientific research Program (BHJ17J013).
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Affiliation(s)
- Zheng Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Canjun Zheng
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hongchao Qi
- Department of Biostatistics, Erasmus University Medical Center, The Netherlands
| | - Yue Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, 451 Smyth Rd, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Michael P Ward
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden NSW, Australia
| | - Fengfeng Liu
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Hong
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Qing Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jiaqi Huang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xi Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jiaxu Le
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiuliang Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Minrui Ren
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jianbo Ba
- Naval Medical Center of PLA, 880 Xiangyin Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhijie Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhaorui Chang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Zhongjie Li
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.,National Health Commission of China
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20
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Davis WW, Mott JA, Olsen SJ. The role of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in nine tropical Asian countries. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2022; 16:568-576. [PMID: 34997697 PMCID: PMC8983905 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2021] [Accepted: 12/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Low global influenza circulation was reported during the coronavirus‐19 pandemic. We explored relationships between non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and influenza in tropical Asian countries. Methods Using World Health Organization (WHO) surveillance data from 2015 to 2019 and the WHO shiny app, we constructed expected seasonal influenza epidemic curves from March 2020 to June 2021 and compared the timing, and average percent positivity with observed data. We used multivariate regression to test associations between ordinal NPI data (from the Oxford Stringency Index) 4 weeks before the expected 2020/21 epidemics and present adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) or relative proportion ratio (RPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Data from nine countries predicted 18 seasonal epidemics; seven were observed. Five started 6–24 weeks later, and all were 4–21 weeks shorter than expected. Five epidemics had lower maximum peak values (percent positivity), and all but one had lower average percent positivity than expected. All countries implemented NPIs. Each increased level of school closure reduced risk of an epidemic by 43% (IRR = 0.57, CI: 0.34, 0.95). Each increased level of canceling public events reduced the average percent positivity across the season by 44% (RPR = 0.56, CI: 0.39, 0.82) and each increased level in restricting internal movements reduced it by 41% (RPR = 0.59, CI: 0.36, 0.96). Other NPIs were not associated with changes. Conclusions Among nine countries, the 2020/21 seasonal epidemics were delayed, shorter, and less intense than expected. Although layered NPIs were difficult to tease apart, school closings, canceling public events, and restricting internal movements before influenza circulation seemed to reduce transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- William W Davis
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.,Thailand MOPH-US CDC Collaboration, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Joshua A Mott
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.,Thailand MOPH-US CDC Collaboration, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Sonja J Olsen
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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21
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Alfano V, Ercolano S, Pinto M. Fighting the COVID pandemic: National policy choices in non-pharmaceutical interventions. J Policy Model 2022; 44:22-40. [PMID: 35034999 PMCID: PMC8750834 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.11.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2021] [Revised: 09/24/2021] [Accepted: 11/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic pushed countries to adopt various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Due to the features of the pandemic, which spread over time and space, governments could decide whether or not to follow policy choices made by leaders of countries affected by the virus before them. In this study, we aim to empirically model the adoption of NPIs during the first wave of COVID-19 in the 14 European countries with more than 10 million inhabitants, in order to detect whether a policy diffusion mechanism occurred. By means of a multivariate approach based on Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis, we manage to derive three clusters representing different behaviour models to which the different European countries belong in the different periods of the first wave: pre-pandemic, summer relaxation and deep-lockdown scenarios. These results bring a two-fold contribution: on the one hand, they may help us to understand differences and similarities among European countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak and guide future quantitative or qualitative studies; on the other, our findings suggest that with minor exceptions (such as Sweden and Poland), different countries adopted very similar policy strategies, which are likely to be due more to the unfolding of the pandemic than to specific governmental strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincenzo Alfano
- Department of Economics, University of Messina, Messina, Italy
| | - Salvatore Ercolano
- Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Economics, University of Basilicata, Italy
| | - Mauro Pinto
- Department of Political Sciences "Jean Monnet", University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Italy
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22
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Juutinen A, Sarvikivi E, Laukkanen-Nevala P, Helve O. Closing lower secondary schools had no impact on COVID-19 incidence in 13-15-year-olds in Finland. Epidemiol Infect 2021; 149:e233. [PMID: 34698006 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268821002351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
School lockdowns have been widely used to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these lockdowns may have a significant negative impact on the lives of young people. In this study, we have evaluated the impact of closing lower secondary schools for COVID-19 incidence in 13–15-year-olds in Finland, in a situation where restrictions and recommendation of social distancing were implemented uniformly in the entire country. COVID-19 case numbers were obtained from the National Infectious Disease Registry (NIDR) of the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, in which clinical microbiology laboratories report all positive SARS-CoV-2 tests with unique identifiers in a timely manner. The NIDR is linked to population data registry, enabling calculation of incidences. We estimated the differences in trends between areas with both restaurant and lower secondary school closures and areas with only restaurant closures in different age groups by using joinpoint regression. We also estimated the differences in trends between age groups. Based on our analysis, closing lower secondary schools had no impact on COVID-19 incidence among 13–15-year-olds. No significant changes on COVID-19 incidence were observed in other age groups either.
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23
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de Pedraza P, Vicente MR. Are Spaniards Happier When the Bars Are Open? Using Life Satisfaction to Evaluate COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions ( NPIs). Int J Environ Res Public Health 2021; 18:10056. [PMID: 34639358 PMCID: PMC8507622 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph181910056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2021] [Revised: 09/12/2021] [Accepted: 09/16/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged governments worldwide with the design of appropriate policies that maximize health outcomes while minimizing economic and mental health consequences. This paper explores sources of individuals' life satisfaction during the COVID-19 pandemic, paying special attention to the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We studied the specific case of Spanish regions and focused on bar and restaurant closures using data from a continuous voluntary web survey that we merged with information about region-specific policies that identified when and where bars and restaurants were closed. We estimated an endogenous binary-treatment-regression model and found that closing bars and restaurants had a significant negative impact on happiness. The results were statistically significant after controlling for the pandemic context, health, income, work, and other personal characteristics and circumstances. We interpreted the results in terms of the positive effect of socialization, individuals' feelings of freedom, and the comparative nature of life satisfaction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo de Pedraza
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 21027 Ispra, Italy
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24
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León TM, Vargo J, Pan ES, Jain S, Shete PB. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Remain Essential to Reducing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Burden Even in a Well-Vaccinated Society: A Modeling Study. Open Forum Infect Dis 2021; 8:ofab415. [PMID: 34514021 PMCID: PMC8419741 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, but their effectiveness depends on coverage and adherence levels. We used scenario modeling to evaluate their effects on cases and deaths averted and herd immunity. NPIs and vaccines worked synergistically in different parts of the pandemic to reduce disease burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomás M León
- Division of Communicable Diseases, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA
| | - Jason Vargo
- Division of Communicable Diseases, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA
- Office of Health Equity, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA
| | - Erica S Pan
- Division of Communicable Diseases, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA
| | - Seema Jain
- Division of Communicable Diseases, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA
| | - Priya B Shete
- Division of Communicable Diseases, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, San Francisco General Hospital, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
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25
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Xylogiannopoulos KF, Karampelas P, Alhajj R. COVID-19 pandemic spread against countries' non-pharmaceutical interventions responses: a data-mining driven comparative study. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1607. [PMID: 34470630 PMCID: PMC8409702 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11251-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2020] [Accepted: 06/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The first half of 2020 has been marked as the era of COVID-19 pandemic which affected the world globally in almost every aspect of the daily life from societal to economical. To prevent the spread of COVID-19, countries have implemented diverse policies regarding Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention (NPI) measures. This is because in the first stage countries had limited knowledge about the virus and its contagiousness. Also, there was no effective medication or vaccines. This paper studies the effectiveness of the implemented policies and measures against the deaths attributed to the virus between January and May 2020. Methods Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control regarding the identified cases and deaths of COVID-19 from 48 countries have been used. Additionally, data concerning the NPI measures related policies implemented by the 48 countries and the capacity of their health care systems was collected manually from their national gazettes and official institutes. Data mining, time series analysis, pattern detection, machine learning, clustering methods and visual analytics techniques have been applied to analyze the collected data and discover possible relationships between the implemented NPIs and COVID-19 spread and mortality. Further, we recorded and analyzed the responses of the countries against COVID-19 pandemic, mainly in urban areas which are over-populated and accordingly COVID-19 has the potential to spread easier among humans. Results The data mining and clustering analysis of the collected data showed that the implementation of the NPI measures before the first death case seems to be very effective in controlling the spread of the disease. In other words, delaying the implementation of the NPI measures to after the first death case has practically little effect on limiting the spread of the disease. The success of implementing the NPI measures further depends on the way each government monitored their application. Countries with stricter policing of the measures seems to be more effective in controlling the transmission of the disease. Conclusions The conducted comparative data mining study provides insights regarding the correlation between the early implementation of the NPI measures and controlling COVID-19 contagiousness and mortality. We reported a number of useful observations that could be very helpful to the decision makers or epidemiologists regarding the rapid implementation and monitoring of the NPI measures in case of a future wave of COVID-19 or to deal with other unknown infectious pandemics. Regardless, after the first wave of COVID-19, most countries have decided to lift the restrictions and return to normal. This has resulted in a severe second wave in some countries, a situation which requires re-evaluating the whole process and inspiring lessons for the future. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11251-4.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Reda Alhajj
- Department of Computer Science, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. .,Department of Health Informatics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
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26
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Wagatsuma K, Koolhof IS, Shobugawa Y, Saito R. Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:734. [PMID: 34344351 PMCID: PMC8329631 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06461-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as sanitary measures and travel restrictions, aimed at controlling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may affect the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV). We aimed to quantify the contribution of the sales of hand hygiene products and the number of international and domestic airline passenger arrivals on HRSV epidemic in Japan. METHODS The monthly number of HRSV cases per sentinel site (HRSV activity) in 2020 was compared with the average of the corresponding period in the previous 6 years (from January 2014 to December 2020) using a monthly paired t-test. A generalized linear gamma regression model was used to regress the time-series of the monthly HRSV activity against NPI indicators, including sale of hand hygiene products and the number of domestic and international airline passengers, while controlling for meteorological conditions (monthly average temperature and relative humidity) and seasonal variations between years (2014-2020). RESULTS The average number of monthly HRSV case notifications in 2020 decreased by approximately 85% (p < 0.001) compared to those in the preceding 6 years (2014-2019). For every average ¥1 billion (approximately £680,000/$9,000,000) spent on hand hygiene products during the current month and 1 month before there was a 0.29% (p = 0.003) decrease in HRSV infections. An increase of average 1000 domestic and international airline passenger arrivals during the previous 1-2 months was associated with a 3.8 × 10- 4% (p < 0.001) and 1.2 × 10- 3% (p < 0.001) increase in the monthly number of HRSV infections, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that there is an association between the decrease in the monthly number of HRSV cases and improved hygiene and sanitary measures and travel restrictions for COVID-19 in Japan, indicating that these public health interventions can contribute to the suppression of HRSV activity. These findings may help in public health policy and decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keita Wagatsuma
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, 1-757 Asahimachi dori, Chuo-ku, Niigata City, 951-8510, Japan.
| | - Iain S Koolhof
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Yugo Shobugawa
- Department of Active Ageing (donated by Tokamachi city, Niigata, Japan), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan
| | - Reiko Saito
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, 1-757 Asahimachi dori, Chuo-ku, Niigata City, 951-8510, Japan
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Abstract
The globe has witnessed the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and emerging variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs) that have broadly impacted the transmissibility, antigenicity, morbidity, and mortality of the virus. Although around 2.5 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide, vaccine coverage remains far behind the minimum threshold needed to achieve herd immunity overall and it varies substantially by country. Many countries, and especially low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), are struggling with access to COVID-19 vaccines and a lack of personnel to perform mass vaccination. Effective nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are also not unanimously accepted and strictly complied with by the public and local communities. Moreover, the global fight against COVID-19 is and continues to face geopolitical, social, economic, and human rights concerns. Taken together, these circumstances call for a unified public health response with well-organized individual, local, national, and global efforts and actions to achieve success in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and achieving sustainable health and development goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Na He
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Diseases and Biosafety; Shanghai, China
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28
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Xue L, Jing S, Sun W, Liu M, Peng Z, Zhu H. Evaluating the impact of the travel ban within mainland China on the epidemic of the COVID-19. Int J Infect Dis 2021; 107:278-283. [PMID: 33838344 PMCID: PMC8024219 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.03.088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Revised: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 03/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic expanded its geographic distribution through the movement of humans and caused subsequent local outbreaks. Hence, it is essential to investigate how human mobility and travel ban affect the transmission and spatial spread while minimizing the impact on social activities and national economics. METHODS We developed a mobility network model for spatial epidemics, explicitly taking into account time-varying inter-province and inner-province population flows, spatial heterogeneity in terms of disease transmission, as well as the impact of media reports. The model is applied to study the epidemic of the dynamic network of 30 provinces of mainland China. The model was calibrated using the publicly available incidence and movement data. RESULTS We estimated that the second outbreak occurred approximately on February 24, 2020, and the cumulative number of cases as of March 15, 2020, increased by 290.1% (95% CI: (255.3%, 324.9%)) without a travel ban in mainland China (excluding Hubei and Tibet). We found that intra-province travel contributes more to the increase of cumulative number of cases than inter-province travel. CONCLUSION Our quantitative and qualitative research results suggest that the strict travel ban has successfully prevented a severe secondary outbreak in mainland China, which provides solutions for many countries and regions experiencing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ling Xue
- College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China
| | - Shuanglin Jing
- College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China
| | - Wei Sun
- College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China
| | - Maoxing Liu
- School of Sciences, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030051, China
| | - Zhihang Peng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029, China
| | - Huaiping Zhu
- Lamps and Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling (CCDM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
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29
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Alzu’bi A, Abu Alasal S, Kheirallah KA, Watzlaf V. COVID-19 simulation study-the effect of strict non-pharmaceutical interventions ( NPIs) on controlling the spread of COVID-19. PeerJ 2021; 9:e11172. [PMID: 33850666 PMCID: PMC8018247 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.11172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2020] [Accepted: 03/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND From the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 infection has changed our lives in many aspects and introduced limitations in the way people interact and communicate. In this paper, we are evaluating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in limiting the spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 pandemic during a wedding ceremony from Irbid, Northern Jordan. Agent-based modeling was used in a real wedding event that occurred at the beginning of the spread of the pandemic in Jordan. Two infected nationals of Jordan, who arrived in Jordan about a week before the event, initiated the spread of the pandemic within the contact community. METHODS In this work, a strict national NPI that the government implemented is developed by using an abstract model with certain characteristics similar to the Jordanian community. Thus, the Jordanian community is represented in terms of ages, occupations, and population movements. After that, the extent of the impact of the NPI measures on the local community is measured. RESULTS We observed the deterioration of the state of society while the epidemic is spreading among individuals in the absence of preventive measures. Also, the results show that the herd immunity case was an epidemic, with a high level of spread among the community with 918 cases during a short interval of time. On the other hand, the preventive measures scenario shows a totally controlled spread with only 74 cases applied on the same interval of time. Furthermore, a convergence in the actual results of the real system with the hypothetical system were detected in the case of applying the strict NPI measures. Finally, strict NPI at the community level following social gatherings seem to be effective measures to control the spread of the COVID- 19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amal Alzu’bi
- Department of Computer Information Systems, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Sanaa Abu Alasal
- Department of Computer Science, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Khalid A. Kheirallah
- Department of Public Health, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Valerie Watzlaf
- Department of Health Information Management, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
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Moss R, Wood J, Brown D, Shearer FM, Black AJ, Glass K, Cheng AC, McCaw JM, McVernon J. Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia. Emerg Infect Dis 2020; 26:2844-2853. [PMID: 32985971 PMCID: PMC7706956 DOI: 10.3201/eid2612.202530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.
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31
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Uchida M, Kaneko M, Hidaka Y, Yamamoto H, Honda T, Takeuchi S, Saito M, Kawa S. Effectiveness of vaccination and wearing masks on seasonal influenza in Matsumoto City, Japan, in the 2014/2015 season: An observational study among all elementary schoolchildren. Prev Med Rep 2017; 5:86-91. [PMID: 27981021 PMCID: PMC5153448 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2016.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2016] [Revised: 11/28/2016] [Accepted: 12/04/2016] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Measures of seasonal influenza control are generally divided into two categories: pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The effectiveness of these measures remains unclear, because of insufficient study sample size and/or differences in study settings. This observational epidemiological study involved all elementary schoolchildren in Matsumoto City, Japan, with seasonal influenza during the 2014/2015 season. Questionnaires, including experiences with influenza diagnosis and socio-demographic factors, were distributed to all 29 public elementary schools, involving 13,217 children, at the end of February 2015. Data were obtained from 10,524 children and analyzed with multivariate logistic regression analysis. The result showed that vaccination (odds ratio 0.866, 95% confidence interval 0.786-0.954) and wearing masks (0.859, 0.778-0.949) had significant protective association. Hand washing (1.447, 1.274-1.644) and gargling (1.319, 1.183-1.471), however, were not associated with protection. In the natural setting, hand washing and gargling showed a negative association, which may have been due to inappropriate infection control measures or aggregating infected and non-infected children to conduct those measures. These results may indicate a pathway for influenza transmission and explain why seasonal influenza control remains difficult in school settings. The overall effectiveness of vaccination and mask wearing was 9.9% and 8.6%, respectively. After dividing children into higher (grades 4-6) and lower (grade 1-3) grade groups, the effectiveness of vaccination became greater in the lower grade group, and the effectiveness of wearing masks became greater in the higher grade group. These results may provide valuable information about designing infection control measures that allocate resources among children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mitsuo Uchida
- Center for Health, Safety and Environment Management, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan
| | - Minoru Kaneko
- Center for Health, Safety and Environment Management, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan
| | - Yoshihiko Hidaka
- Department of Pediatrics, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Yamamoto
- The First Department of Internal Medicine, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan
| | - Takayuki Honda
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan
| | - Shouhei Takeuchi
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Japan
| | - Masaya Saito
- Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shigeyuki Kawa
- Center for Health, Safety and Environment Management, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan
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