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Espinoza T, Burke CL, Carpenter-Bundhoo L, Marshall SM, McDougall AJ, Roberts DT, Campbell HA, Kennard MJ. Quantifying movement of multiple threatened species to inform adaptive management of environmental flows. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2021; 295:113067. [PMID: 34171782 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2020] [Revised: 06/08/2021] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
There is a growing need for water managers to refine and optimise environmental flow strategies (e-flows) to balance water requirements for humans and nature. With increasing demands for freshwater and consequent declines in biodiversity, managers are faced with the problem of how to adaptively manage e-flows for multiple stakeholders and species whose flow requirements may overlap or vary. This study assessed the effectiveness of a regulated e-flow release strategy from a dam, aimed at providing movement opportunities and facilitating reproductive processes for multiple threatened species. Movements of 24 Mary River cod (Maccullochella mariensis), 20 Australian lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri) and 13 Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) were quantified using acoustic telemetry over a three-year period. The influence of regulated e-flow releases, season, river depth, water temperature and rainfall on animal movements was assessed using Generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs). Models showed that hydraulic connectivity provided by both natural flows and regulated e-flow releases facilitated movement of all three species between pool habitats, throughout the year. Mary River turtles made extensive use of regulated e-flow releases when moving between habitats, whereas Mary River cod and Australian lungfish required additional natural rises in river height above the regulated e-flows to trigger movements. Significant movement activity was also recorded for cod and turtles during the dry season (winter and spring), broadly coinciding with breeding periods for these species. The effectiveness of, and potential improvements to, current e-flow strategies to sustain key life-history requirements of these species is discussed. Findings suggest a revised e-flow strategy with relatively minor increases in the magnitude of e-flow releases throughout winter and spring, would be effective in providing movement opportunities and supporting reproductive success for all three species. This study demonstrates that by quantifying movement behaviour in an e-flow context, ecological risk assessment frameworks can then be used to assess and provide for critical life-history requirements of multiple species within the context of a highly regulated system under increasing water use demands.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Espinoza
- Department of Regional Development, Manufacturing and Water, Bundaberg, QLD, 4670, Australia.
| | - C L Burke
- Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia
| | - L Carpenter-Bundhoo
- Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia
| | - S M Marshall
- Department of Regional Development, Manufacturing and Water, Bundaberg, QLD, 4670, Australia
| | - A J McDougall
- Department of Regional Development, Manufacturing and Water, Bundaberg, QLD, 4670, Australia
| | - D T Roberts
- Seqwater, Ipswich, Queensland, 4305, Australia
| | - H A Campbell
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, School of Environment, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, 0909, Australia
| | - M J Kennard
- Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia
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Miller AD, Nitschke C, Weeks AR, Weatherly WL, Heyes SD, Sinclair SJ, Holland OJ, Stevenson A, Broadhurst L, Hoebee SE, Sherman CDH, Morgan JW. Genetic data and climate niche suitability models highlight the vulnerability of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia. Evol Appl 2020; 13:2014-2029. [PMID: 32908601 PMCID: PMC7463319 DOI: 10.1111/eva.12958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2019] [Revised: 02/23/2020] [Accepted: 03/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Habitat fragmentation imperils the persistence of many functionally important species, with climate change a new threat to local persistence due to climate niche mismatching. Predicting the evolutionary trajectory of species essential to ecosystem function under future climates is challenging but necessary for prioritizing conservation investments. We use a combination of population genetics and niche suitability models to assess the trajectory of a functionally important, but highly fragmented, plant species from south-eastern Australia (Banksia marginata, Proteaceae). We demonstrate significant genetic structuring among, and high level of relatedness within, fragmented remnant populations, highlighting imminent risks of inbreeding. Population simulations, controlling for effective population size (N e), suggest that many remnant populations will suffer rapid declines in genetic diversity due to drift in the absence of intervention. Simulations were used to demonstrate how inbreeding and drift processes might be suppressed by assisted migration and population mixing approaches that enhance the size and connectivity of remnant populations. These analyses were complemented by niche suitability models that predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitat by 2080; ~30% of the current distribution of the species climate niche overlaps with the projected distribution of the species climate niche in the geographic region by the 2080s. Our study highlights the importance of conserving remnant populations and establishing new populations in areas likely to support B. marginata in the future, and adopting seed sourcing strategies that can help populations overcome the risks of inbreeding and maladaptation. We also argue that ecological replacement of B. marginata using climatically suited plant species might be needed in the future to maintain ecosystem processes where B. marginata cannot persist. We recommend the need for progressive revegetation policies and practices to prevent further deterioration of species such as B. marginata and the ecosystems they support.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam D. Miller
- Centre for Integrative EcologySchool of Life and Environmental SciencesDeakin UniversityGeelongVicAustralia
- Deakin Genomics CentreDeakin UniversityGeelongVicAustralia
| | - Craig Nitschke
- School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesThe University of MelbourneRichmondVicAustralia
| | - Andrew R. Weeks
- School of BioSciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVicAustralia
| | | | - Simon D. Heyes
- Department of Ecology, Environment and EvolutionLa Trobe UniversityBundooraVicAustralia
| | - Steve J. Sinclair
- Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningArthur Rylah InstituteHeidelbergVicAustralia
| | - Owen J. Holland
- Centre for Integrative EcologySchool of Life and Environmental SciencesDeakin UniversityGeelongVicAustralia
- Deakin Genomics CentreDeakin UniversityGeelongVicAustralia
| | - Aggie Stevenson
- Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management AuthorityHamiltonVicAustralia
| | - Linda Broadhurst
- Centre for Australian National Biodiversity ResearchCSIRO National Research CollectionsCanberraACTAustralia
| | - Susan E. Hoebee
- Department of Ecology, Environment and EvolutionLa Trobe UniversityBundooraVicAustralia
| | - Craig D. H. Sherman
- Centre for Integrative EcologySchool of Life and Environmental SciencesDeakin UniversityGeelongVicAustralia
- Deakin Genomics CentreDeakin UniversityGeelongVicAustralia
| | - John W. Morgan
- Department of Ecology, Environment and EvolutionLa Trobe UniversityBundooraVicAustralia
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Williams SH, Scriven SA, Burslem DFRP, Hill JK, Reynolds G, Agama AL, Kugan F, Maycock CR, Khoo E, Hastie AYL, Sugau JB, Nilus R, Pereira JT, Tsen SLT, Lee LY, Juiling S, Hodgson JA, Cole LES, Asner GP, Evans LJ, Brodie JF. Incorporating connectivity into conservation planning for the optimal representation of multiple species and ecosystem services. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:934-942. [PMID: 31840279 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2019] [Revised: 12/04/2019] [Accepted: 12/06/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Conservation planning tends to focus on protecting species' ranges or landscape connectivity but seldom both-particularly in the case of diverse taxonomic assemblages and multiple planning goals. Therefore, information on potential trade-offs between maintaining landscape connectivity and achieving other conservation objectives is lacking. We developed an optimization approach to prioritize the maximal protection of species' ranges, ecosystem types, and forest carbon stocks, while also including habitat connectivity for range-shifting species and dispersal corridors to link protected area. We applied our approach to Sabah, Malaysia, where the state government mandated an increase in protected-area coverage of approximately 305,000 ha but did not specify where new protected areas should be. Compared with a conservation planning approach that did not incorporate the 2 connectivity features, our approach increased the protection of dispersal corridors and elevational connectivity by 13% and 21%, respectively. Coverage of vertebrate and plant species' ranges and forest types were the same whether connectivity was included or excluded. Our approach protected 2% less forest carbon and 3% less butterfly range than when connectivity features were not included. Hence, the inclusion of connectivity into conservation planning can generate large increases in the protection of landscape connectivity with minimal loss of representation of other conservation targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara H Williams
- Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, U.S.A
| | - Sarah A Scriven
- Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, U.K
| | - David F R P Burslem
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, U.K
| | - Jane K Hill
- Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, U.K
| | - Glen Reynolds
- South East Asia Rainforest Research Partnership, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Agnes L Agama
- South East Asia Rainforest Research Partnership, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Frederick Kugan
- Sabah Forestry Department, P.O. Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Colin R Maycock
- International Tropical Forestry, Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, Universiti Malaysia, Sabah, Jalan UMS, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Eyen Khoo
- Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, P.O. Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Alexander Y L Hastie
- Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, P.O. Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - John B Sugau
- Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, P.O. Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Reuben Nilus
- Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, P.O. Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Joan T Pereira
- Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, P.O. Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Sandy L T Tsen
- International Tropical Forestry, Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, Universiti Malaysia, Sabah, Jalan UMS, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Leung Y Lee
- International Tropical Forestry, Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, Universiti Malaysia, Sabah, Jalan UMS, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Suzika Juiling
- International Tropical Forestry, Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, Universiti Malaysia, Sabah, Jalan UMS, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Jenny A Hodgson
- Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool, L69 7ZB, U.K
| | - Lydia E S Cole
- Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool, L69 7ZB, U.K
| | - Gregory P Asner
- Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science, The Biodesign Institute C, Arizona State University, 1001 S. McAllister Ave., P.O. Box 878001, Tempe, AZ, 85287, U.S.A
| | - Luke J Evans
- Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science, The Biodesign Institute C, Arizona State University, 1001 S. McAllister Ave., P.O. Box 878001, Tempe, AZ, 85287, U.S.A
| | - Jedediah F Brodie
- Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, U.S.A
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Reside AE, Critchell K, Crayn DM, Goosem M, Goosem S, Hoskin CJ, Sydes T, Vanderduys EP, Pressey RL. Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01824. [PMID: 30390399 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2018] [Revised: 08/16/2018] [Accepted: 09/10/2018] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under- or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- April E Reside
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia
| | - Kay Critchell
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia
| | - Darren M Crayn
- Centre for Tropical Environmental Sustainability Science, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, 4878, Australia
- Australian Tropical Herbarium, James Cook University, McGregor Road, Smithfield, Queensland, 4878, Australia
| | - Miriam Goosem
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Stephen Goosem
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
- Wet Tropics Management Authority, P.O. Box 2050, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
| | - Conrad J Hoskin
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Travis Sydes
- Far North Queensland Regional Organisation of Councils, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
| | - Eric P Vanderduys
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, ATSIP PMB PO, Aitkenvale, Queensland, 4814, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
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Qu H, Wang CJ, Zhang ZX. Planning priority conservation areas under climate change for six plant species with extremely small populations in China. NATURE CONSERVATION 2018. [DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.25.20063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
The concept of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations (PSESP) has been employed to guide conservation of threatened plant species in China. Climate change has a high potential to threaten PSESP. As a result, it is necessary to integrate climate change effects on PSESP into conservation planning in China. Here, ecological niche modelling is used to project current and future habitat distributions of six PSESP in China under climate change scenarios and conservation planning software is applied to identify priority conservation areas (PCAs) for these PSESP based on habitat distributions. These results were used to provide proposals for in-situ and ex-situ conservation measures directed at PSESP. It was found that annual precipitation was important for habitat distributions for all six PSESP (with the percentage contribution to habitat distributions ranging from 18.1 % to 74.9 %) and non-climatic variables including soil and altitude have a large effect on habitat suitability of PSESP. Large quantities of PCAs occurred within some provincial regions for these six PSESP (e.g. Sichuan and Jilin for the PSESP Cathaya argyrophylla, Taxus cuspidata, Annamocarya sinensis and Madhuca pasquieri), indicating that these are likely to be appropriate areas for in-situ and ex-situ conservation measures directed at these PSESP. Those nature reserves with large quantities of PCAs were identified as promising sites for in-situ conservation measures of PSESP; such reserves include Yangzie and Dongdongtinghu for C. argyrophylla, Songhuajiangsanhu and Changbaishan for T. cuspidata and Shiwandashanshuiyuanlian for Tsoongiodendron odorum. These results suggest that existing seed banks and botanical gardens occurring within identified PCAs should allocate more resources and space to ex-situ conservation of PSESP. In addition, there should be additional botanical gardens established for ex-situ conservation of PSESP in PCAs outside existing nature reserves. To address the risk of negative effects of climate change on PSESP, it is necessary to integrate in-situ and ex-situ conservation as well as climate change monitoring in PSESP conservation planning.
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