Predictive value of clinical and laboratory features for the main febrile diseases in children living in Tanzania: A prospective observational study

ePOCT+ and the medAL-suite: Development of an electronic clinical decision support algorithm and digital platform for pediatric outpatients in low- and middle-income countries

Electronic clinical decision support algorithms (CDSAs) have been developed to address high childhood mortality and inappropriate antibiotic prescription by helping clinicians adhere to guidelines. Previously identified challenges of CDSAs include their limited scope, usability, and outdated clinical content. To address these challenges we developed ePOCT+, a CDSA for the care of pediatric outpatients in low- and middle-income settings, and the medical algorithm suite (medAL-suite), a software for the creation and execution of CDSAs. Following the principles of digital development, we aim to describe the process and lessons learnt from the development of ePOCT+ and the medAL-suite. In particular, this work outlines the systematic integrative development process in the design and implementation of these tools required to meet the needs of clinicians to improve uptake and quality of care. We considered the feasibility, acceptability and reliability of clinical signs and symptoms, as well as the diagnostic and prognostic performance of predictors. To assure clinical validity, and appropriateness for the country of implementation the algorithm underwent numerous reviews by clinical experts and health authorities from the implementing countries. The digitalization process involved the creation of medAL-creator, a digital platform which allows clinicians without IT programming skills to easily create the algorithms, and medAL-reader the mobile health (mHealth) application used by clinicians during the consultation. Extensive feasibility tests were done with feedback from end-users of multiple countries to improve the clinical algorithm and medAL-reader software. We hope that the development framework used for developing ePOCT+ will help support the development of other CDSAs, and that the open-source medAL-suite will enable others to easily and independently implement them. Further clinical validation studies are underway in Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya, Senegal, and India.

Characterisation of Malaria Diagnosis Data in High and Low Endemic Areas of Tanzania

Background

Malaria remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in the sub-Saharan African region. Malaria is considered preventable and treatable, but in recent years, it has increased outpatient visits, hospitalisation, and deaths worldwide, reaching a 9% prevalence in Tanzania. With the massive number of patient records in the health facilities, this study aims to understand the key characteristics and trends of malaria diagnostic symptoms, testing and treatment data in Tanzania's high and low endemic regions.

Methods

This study had retrospective and cross-sectional designs. The data were collected from four facilities in two regions in Tanzania, i.e., Morogoro Region (high endemicity) and Kilimanjaro Region (low endemicity). Firstly, malaria patient records were extracted from malaria patients' files from 2015 to 2018. Data collected include (i) the patient's demographic information, (ii) the symptoms presented by the patient when consulting a doctor, (iii) the tests taken and results, (iv) diagnosis based on the laboratory results and (v) the treatment provided. Apart from that, we surveyed patients who visited the health facility with malaria-related symptoms to collect extra information such as travel history and the use of malaria control initiatives such as insecticide-treated nets. A descriptive analysis was generated to identify the frequency of responses. Correlation analysis random effects logistic regression was performed to determine the association between malaria-related symptoms and positivity. Significant differences of p < 0.05 (i.e., a Confidence Interval of 95%) were accepted.

Results

Of the 2556 records collected, 1527(60%) were from the high endemic area, while 1029(40%) were from the low endemic area. The most observed symptoms were the following: for facilities in high endemic regions was fever followed by headache, vomiting and body pain; for facilities in the low endemic region was high fever, sweating, fatigue and headache. The results showed that males with malaria symptoms had a higher chance of being diagnosed with malaria than females. Most patients with fever had a high probability of being diagnosed with malaria. From the interview, 68% of patients with malaria-related symptoms treated themselves without proper diagnosis.

Conclusions

Our data indicate that proper malaria diagnosis is a significant concern. The majority still self-medicate with anti-malaria drugs once they experience any malaria-related symptoms. Therefore, future studies should explore this challenge and investigate the potentiality of using malaria diagnosis records to diagnose the disease.

Acute Febrile Illness Among Children in Butajira, South-Central Ethiopia During the Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa Program

Background

Clearly differentiating causes of fever is challenging where diagnostic capacities are limited, resulting in poor patient management. We investigated acute febrile illness in children aged ≤15 years enrolled at healthcare facilities in Butajira, Ethiopia, during January 2012 to January 2014 for the Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa Program.

Methods

Blood culture, malaria microscopy, and blood analyses followed by microbiological, biochemical, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing of isolates were performed. We applied a retrospectively developed scheme to classify children as malaria or acute respiratory, gastrointestinal or urinary tract infection, or other febrile infections and syndromes. Incidence rates per 100 000 population derived from the classification scheme and multivariate logistic regression to determine fever predictors were performed.

Results

We rarely observed stunting (4/513, 0.8%), underweight (1/513, 0.2%), wasting (1/513, 0.2%), and hospitalization (21/513, 4.1%) among 513 children with mild transient fever and a mean disease severity score of 12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 11–13). Blood cultures yielded 1.6% (8/513) growth of pathogenic agents; microscopy detected 13.5% (69/513) malaria with 20 611/µL blood (95% CI, 15 352–25 870) mean parasite density. Incidences were generally higher in children aged ≤5 years than >5 to ≤15 years; annual incidences in young children were 301.3 (95% CI, 269.2–337.2) for malaria and 1860.1 (95% CI, 1778.0–1946.0) for acute respiratory and 379.9 (95% CI, 343.6–420.0) for gastrointestinal tract infections.

Conclusions

We could not detect the etiological agents in all febrile children. Our findings may prompt further investigations and the reconsideration of policies and frameworks for the management of acute febrile illness.

Bacteremic Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Ethiopian Children: Etiology, Antibiotic Resistance, Risk Factors, and Clinical Outcome

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. We sought to determine the magnitude, etiology, and risk factors of CAP in children 5 years after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) 10 in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study on the bacterial etiology and risk factors of CAP among children aged 0-15 years in 2 pediatric emergency departments in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Blood culture, antibiotic susceptibility testing, and amplification of pneumococcal lytA and cpsB genes were performed. Serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae were determined by Quellung reaction and sequencing the cpsB gene.

RESULTS

Out of 643 eligible children, 549 were enrolled. The prevalence of bacteremic pneumonia was 5.6%. Staphylococcus aureus (26.5%) was the predominant pathogenic species, followed by Enterococcus faecium (11.8%), Escherichia coli (11.8%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (11.8%). In univariate analysis, parental smoking and nonvaccination with PCV10 were associated with bacteremic CAP. In multivariable analysis, female sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-4.9), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) <-2 SDs (aOR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.8), and lower chest indrawing (aOR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.2-0.95) were independently associated with bacteremic CAP. The overall in-hospital case fatality rate was 2.37% (13/549), and WAZ <-3 SDs (OR, 13.5; 95% CI, 3.95-46.12) was associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Five years after the introduction of PCV10 in Ethiopia, S. aureus was the main cause of bacteremic CAP in children, the contribution of S. pneumoniae was low, and there was a high level of antibiotic resistance among isolates.

Universal versus conditional day 3 follow-up for children with non-severe unclassified fever at the community level in Ethiopia: A cluster-randomised non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

With declining malaria prevalence and improved use of malaria diagnostic tests, an increasing proportion of children seen by community health workers (CHWs) have unclassified fever. Current community management guidelines by WHO advise that children seen with non-severe unclassified fever (on day 1) should return to CHWs on day 3 for reassessment. We compared the safety of conditional follow-up reassessment only in cases where symptoms do not resolve with universal follow-up on day 3.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We undertook a 2-arm cluster-randomised controlled non-inferiority trial among children aged 2-59 months presenting with fever and without malaria, pneumonia, diarrhoea, or danger signs to 284 CHWs affiliated with 25 health centres (clusters) in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region, Ethiopia. The primary outcome was treatment failure (persistent fever, development of danger signs, hospital admission, death, malaria, pneumonia, or diarrhoea) at 1 week (day 8) of follow-up. Non-inferiority was defined as a 4% or smaller difference in the proportion of treatment failures with conditional follow-up compared to universal follow-up. Secondary outcomes included the percentage of children brought for reassessment, antimicrobial prescription, and severe adverse events (hospitalisations and deaths) after 4 weeks (day 29). From December 1, 2015, to November 30, 2016, we enrolled 4,595 children, of whom 3,946 (1,953 universal follow-up arm; 1,993 conditional follow-up arm) adhered to the CHW's follow-up advice and also completed a day 8 study visit within ±1 days. Overall, 2.7% had treatment failure on day 8: 0.8% (16/1,993) in the conditional follow-up arm and 4.6% (90/1,953) in the universal follow-up arm (risk difference of treatment failure -3.81%, 95% CI -∞, 0.65%), meeting the prespecified criterion for non-inferiority. There were no deaths recorded by day 29. In the universal follow-up arm, 94.6% of caregivers reported returning for reassessment on day 3, in contrast to 7.5% in the conditional follow-up arm (risk ratio 22.0, 95% CI 17.9, 27.2, p < 0.001). Few children sought care from another provider after their initial visit to the CHW: 3.0% (59/1,993) in the conditional follow-up arm and 1.1% (22/1,953) in the universal follow-up arm, on average 3.2 and 3.4 days later, respectively, with no significant difference between arms (risk difference 1.79%, 95% CI -1.23%, 4.82%, p = 0.244). The mean travel time to another provider was 2.2 hours (95% CI 0.01, 5.3) in the conditional follow-up arm and 2.6 hours (95% CI 0.02, 4.5) in the universal follow-up arm (p = 0.82); the mean cost for seeking care after visiting the CHW was 26.5 birr (95% CI 7.8, 45.2) and 22.8 birr (95% CI 15.6, 30.0), respectively (p = 0.69). Though this study was an important step to evaluate the safety of conditional follow-up, the high adherence seen may have resulted from knowledge of the 1-week follow-up visit and may therefore not transfer to routine practice; hence, in an implementation setting it is crucial that CHWs are well trained in counselling skills to advise caregivers on when to come back for follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Conditional follow-up of children with non-severe unclassified fever in a low malaria endemic setting in Ethiopia was non-inferior to universal follow-up through day 8. Allowing CHWs to advise caregivers to bring children back only in case of continued symptoms might be a more efficient use of resources in similar settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT02926625.