Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment

Multi-model projections of tree species performance in Quebec, Canada under future climate change

Many modelling approaches have been developed to project climate change impacts on forests. By analysing 'comparable' yet distinct variables (e.g. productivity, growth, dominance, biomass, etc.) through different structures, parameterizations and assumptions, models can yield different outcomes to rather similar initial questions. This variability can lead to some confusion for forest managers when developing strategies to adapt forest management to climate change. In this study, we standardized results from seven different models (Habitat suitability, trGam, StandLEAP, Quebec Landscape Dynamics, PICUS, LANDIS-II and LPJ-LMfire) to provide a simple and comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty and consensus in future performance (decline, status quo, improvement) for six tree species in Quebec under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Despite a large diversity of model types, we found a high level of agreement (73.1%) in projected species' performance across species, regions, scenarios and time periods. Low agreements in model outcomes resulted from small dissensions among models. Model agreement was much higher for cold-tolerant species (up to 99.9%), especially in southernmost forest regions and under RCP 8.5, indicating that these species are especially sensitive to increased climate forcing in the southern part of their distribution range. Lower agreement was found for thermophilous species (sugar maple, yellow birch) in boreal regions under RCP 8.5 mostly as a result of the way the different models are handling natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires) and lags in the response of populations (forest inertia or migration capability) to climate change. Agreement was slightly higher under high anthropogenic climate forcing, suggesting that important thresholds in species-specific performance might be crossed if radiative forcing reach values as high as those projected under RCP 8.5. We expect that strong agreement among models despite their different assumptions, predictors and structure should inspire the development of forest management strategies to be better adapted to climate change.

Beliefs about Climate Change and Their Relationship with Environmental Beliefs and Sustainable Behavior: A View from Rural Communities

The study of beliefs and environmental behavior is of special interest, given the implications of climate change as a social phenomenon and the disagreements about what is socially believed about this phenomenon. This research was aimed at determining the associations between environmental beliefs and sustainable behavior in a group of inhabitants of southern Colombia. The methodology was exploratory and cross-sectional, with descriptive and correlational analyses. The sample was made up of 368 people from two regions in southern Colombia (57.5% female and 42.5% male); their ages ranged between 18 and 69 years (X = 19.36; SD = 8.59). Information was collected with questionnaires that measured climate change risk perception, environmental beliefs, and sustainable behavior. The results show higher scores for equitable behavior and environmental beliefs. Environmental beliefs—egobiocentrism—and risk perception of climate change predict both sustainable and pro-ecological behavior, as well as altruistic, frugal, and equitable behavior. It is concluded that the presence of environmental beliefs, along with information regarding a sense of environmental deterioration, climate change and the consequences for the future, can predict the implementation of actions for sustainable development.

Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures

The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents' sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change.