Democratizing wildfire strategies. Do you realize what it means? Insights from a participatory process in the Montseny region (Catalonia, Spain)

Social valuation of biodiversity relative to other types of assets at risk in wildfire

Environmental crises, such as wildfires, can cause major losses of human life, infrastructure, biodiversity, and cultural values. In many such situations, incident controllers must make fateful choices about what to protect-and hence what to abandon. With an online representative survey of >2000 adult Australians, we investigated social attitudes to this dilemma. We used best-worst scaling to assess preferences across a set of 11 assets representing human life, infrastructure, biodiversity, and cultural values. Survey respondents overwhelmingly prioritized a single human life (best-worst score of 6647 out of possible score ranging from -10695 to 10695), even if that choice resulted in extinction of other species. Inanimate (replaceable) objects were accorded lowest priority (best-worst scores of -4655 for a shed and -3242 for a house). Among biodiversity assets, respondents prioritized protecting a population of the iconic koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) (best-worst score of 1913) ahead of preventing the extinction of a snail (score -329) and a plant species (-226). These results variably support current policy in that they emphasize the importance the community places on protection of human life, but results diverged from conventional practice in rating some biodiversity assets ahead of infrastructure. The preference for protecting a population of koalas ahead of action taken to prevent the extinction of an invertebrate and plant species corroborates previous research reporting biases in the way people value nature. If noncharismatic species are not to be treated as expendable, then the case for preventing their extinction needs to be better made to the community. Given the increasing global incidence of high-severity wildfires, further sampling of societal preferences among diverse asset types is needed to inform planning, policy, and practice relating to wildfire. Other preemptive targeted management actions (such as translocations) are needed to conserve biodiversity, especially noniconic species, likely to be imperiled by catastrophic events.

Uplifting local ecological knowledge as part of adaptation pathways to wildfire risk reduction: A case study in Montseny, Catalonia (Spain)

Living with wildfires in an era of climate change requires adaptation and weaving together many forms of knowledge. Empirical evidence of knowledge co-production in wildfire management is lacking in Mediterranean European areas. We explored how local ecological knowledge can be leveraged to reduce wildfire risk through an adaptation pathways process in the Montseny massif and wider Tordera River watershed of Catalonia, Spain: an area stewarded through forestry and agriculture, tourism, nature conservation, and fire management. We combined different methods (e.g., a timeline and Three Horizons framework) throughout three workshops with agents of change to co-create adaptation pathways to reduce wildfire risk, integrating a historical perspective of the landscape while envisioning desirable futures. Our results showed that local ecological knowledge and other soft adaptation strategies contribute to innovative sustainable development initiatives that can also mitigate wildfire risk. The adaptation pathways approach holds much potential to inform local policies and support wildfire-based community initiatives in diverse contexts.

An unusually robust specimen attributed to Buriolestes schultzi (Dinosauria: Sauropodomorpha) from the Late Triassic of southern Brazil

Buriolestes schultzi is a small sauropodomorph dinosaur from Carnian beds (ca., 233 Ma) of southern Brazil. It is one of the earliest members of that lineage and is a key taxon to investigate the initial evolution of Sauropodomorpha. Here, we attribute a new specimen to B. schultzi from Late Triassic of southern Brazil, which represents the first occurrence of the taxon outside the type locality. The new specimen comprises a disarticulated and partial skeleton, including cranial and postcranial elements. It is tentatively regarded as an additional specimen of B. schultzi according to a unique combination of traits (including autapomorphies). Conversely, the new specimen is stouter than the other specimens of B. schultzi, as shown by femoral Robustness Index. Based on femoral circumference, the estimated body mass of the new specimen is approximately 15 kg, which is far higher than the previous estimations for other specimens of B. schultzi (i.e., approximately 7 kg). In fact, the new specimen and some specimens of Eoraptor lunensis and Saturnalia tupiniquim were found to be significantly stouter than coeval sauropodomorphs. Therefore, instead of all being constructed as gracile, the earliest sauropodomorphs experienced an unappreciated intraspecific variation in robustness. This is interesting because more precise data on species body mass are crucial in order to better understand the complex terrestrial ecosystems in which dinosaurs originated.

Mapping opportunities for the use of land management strategies to address fire risk in Europe

Many parts of Europe face increasing challenges managing wildfires. Although wildfire is an integral part of certain ecosystems, fires in many places are becoming larger and more intense, driven largely by climate change, land abandonment, and changes in fuel management with important socioeconomic, environmental, and ecosystem services consequences for Europe. In order to envision a comprehensive fire risk mitigation strategy for Europe, a spatial assessment of opportunities to manage fuels at the landscape-scale is needed. Our study explored the suitability of three land management strategies (LMS)-herbivory, mechanical fuel removal, and prescribed burn-which can create more heterogenous fuelscapes, thereby reducing an element of fire risk. We created suitability maps for each of the LMS using adoption factors identified in a systematic literature review (n = 123). We compared these maps with areas of historical fire occurrence as a proxy for fire risk to prioritize key areas for intervention. We found that over a quarter of Europe was suitable for multiple LMS within areas of greater fire risk, creating opportunities for concurrent and synergistic use of the strategies. Options were more limited in areas of southern Europe, where prescribed burn was found to be uniquely viable amongst the LMS evaluated. Opportunities were also restricted in some areas of high fire risk in northern Europe, where herbivory was found to be the only suitable LMS. Our findings take a wide-view of fuel management to target landscape-scale decision making focused on reducing fire risk. However, many other factors must be taken into account to successfully manage fuels at local scales, including the socio-cultural appropriateness of the LMS, the viability of incentive schemes, and possible trade-offs with other management goals, such as carbon storage and biodiversity.

Participatory multi-criteria evaluation of landscape values to inform wildfire management

Climate change is expected to increase the number of days with meteorological conditions conducive to uncontrollable wildfires. Thus, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of wildfire-prone regions to minimize the adverse impacts of these wildfires by creating resilient landscapes. In this paper we develop a participatory multi-criteria evaluation to identify and map landscape values and prioritize areas according to these values in the Montseny Biophere Reserve (Catalonia, NE Spain). Then, we draft a wildfire management strategy to protect the areas that have been prioritized through selected fuel reduction sectors that would reduce wildfire intensity. Finally, we emphasize the added value of a participatory multi-criteria evaluation in the adaptation to and management of expected megafires. We find that the integration of landscape values through participatory multi-criteria evaluation has the potential to alter wildfire management strategies by adding fuel reduction sectors and changing their implementation order. However, the implementation of the planned fuel reduction treatments faces socioeconomic and institutional barriers that call for a deeper engagement with transdisciplinary project design and transformative science.

Collaborative agroforestry to mitigate wildfires in Extremadura, Spain: land manager motivations and perceptions of outcomes, benefits, and policy needs

Wildfires are increasing in severity, and magnitude in the Mediterranean Basin in recent years, reaching a yearly average of 450 000 ha over the last decade. Drivers include climate change, land-use change, and land abandonment. Wildfire mitigation requires landscape-level action as impact to each parcel is affected by the conditions of the others. We conducted a case study of a regional-level initiative that develops community efforts to mitigate wildfires through silvo-pastoral agroforestry systems, using an integrated landscape management approach. This approach involves collaboration among stakeholders to achieve multiple objectives. In order to derive insights into its potential, we asked participating land managers: (1) What motivates their participation?, (2) How do they perceive initiative outcomes?, and as urban outmigrants with non-traditional goals are increasing in rural areas, (3) Do responses differ between rural and neo-rural participants? Our results show that managers feel highly affected by wildfires and are strongly motivated to reduce wildfire risk. Land abandonment and inappropriate policy were major concerns. The initiative was seen to have positive outcomes for individual participants as well as the region, and to stimulate community connectedness. We conclude that fit to local contexts, integrated landscape management can be a well-received approach to reducing wildfire risk. Agroforestry systems in Extremadura can act as "productive fuelbreaks" that reduce fire risk over extensive areas, while restoring traditional landscapes. We suggest that programs to reduce wildfire risk can also be used as a leverage point for financing rural revival and provision of multiple ecosystem services.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10457-022-00771-6.

Blazing the trail: Social innovation supporting wildfire-resilient territories in Catalonia (Spain)

Mediterranean territories have co-evolved and been shaped by fire throughout history. However, global environmental change conditions are increasing the size, intensity and severity of wildfires, which have gone from a regular natural disturbance to a serious threat for civil protection, surpassing firefighting capacities. Therefore, building resilience in fire-prone territories is an increasingly relevant policy and management objective. However, the notion of resilience has been criticized for paying insufficient attention to key social issues such as socio-political dynamics, power imbalances and societal change. At the same time, social science contributions to wildfire research are still rather limited. In this paper, we bridge social innovation theory to resilience theory in order to create a territorially embedded and socially sensitive framework for assessing socio-ecological resilience. From this perspective, we then examine how Forest Defence Groups (ADFs, by their Catalan acronym) have evolved from grassroots, bottom-up initiatives to well-established bottom-linked institutions and we evaluate their contributions to socio-ecological resilience in the territories where they operate. Our results show that ADFs contribute in several aspects to socio-ecological resilience and that the pave the way for opening up spaces of dialogue and collaboration through which local communities can engage with the issues that directly affect them, such as wildfires.

Managing Wildfire Risk in Mosaic Landscapes: A Case Study of the Upper Gata River Catchment in Sierra de Gata, Spain

Fire prevention and suppression approaches that exclusively rely on silvicultural measures and containment infrastructure have become increasingly ineffective in stopping the spread of wildfires. As agroforestry landscape mosaics consisting of a mix of different land cover and use types are considered less prone to fire than forests, approaches that support the involvement of rural people in agriculture and forestry activities have been proposed. However, it is unknown whether, in the current socio-economic context, these land-use interventions will nudge fire-prone landscapes towards more fire-resistant ones. We report on a case study of the Gata river catchment in Sierra de Gata, Spain, which is a fire-prone area that has been a pilot site for Mosaico-Extremadura, an innovative participatory fire-risk-mitigation strategy. Our purpose is to assess the efficacy of project interventions as “productive fuel breaks” and their potential for protecting high-risk areas. Interventions were effective in reducing the flame length and the rate of spread, and almost 40% of the intervention area was in sub-catchments with high risk. Therefore, they can function as productive fuel breaks and, if located strategically, contribute to mitigating wildfire risk. For these reasons, and in view of other economic and social benefits, collaborative approaches for land management are highly recommended.

Combining Participatory Mapping and Geospatial Analysis Techniques to Assess Wildfire Risk in Rural North Vietnam

Participatory mapping (PM) is a valuable research tool for assessing fire risk, especially in regions where data are difficult to collect or inconsistent; in such areas, the integration between crowdsourced data and geospatial techniques plays a fundamental role in gathering more consistent and reliable information. This study combines a participatory (community-based) mapping approach with geospatial techniques to assess fire risk in Van Chan district, northern Vietnam, an area where the economy relies mainly on forestry activities. Local stakeholders designed a map of wildfires, which was modelled as a function of a set of physical and socio-economic variables. A fire-probability map of the district was obtained and compared with MODIS data (2000-2020). The results suggest that higher fire probability occurs in areas with lower human pressure, and they provide information on related socio-economic drivers that affect this phenomenon. This study highlights the importance of combining participatory approaches and geospatial techniques to assess fire dynamics and prevent wildfires in terms of understanding and predicting the risks. The involvement of local communities is fundamental to this innovative participatory approach with regard to better supporting decision-making and prevention actions and to developing fire control management guidelines.

Has COVID-19 halted winter-spring wildfires in the Mediterranean? Insights for wildfire science under a pandemic context

Wildfires in the Mediterranean are strongly tied to human activities. Given their particular link with humans, which act as both initiators and suppressors, wildfire hazard is highly sensitive to socioeconomic changes and patterns. Many researchers have prompted the perils of sustaining the current management policy, the so-called 'total fire exclusion'. This policy, coupled to increasingly fire-prone weather conditions, may lead to more hazardous fires in the mid-long run. Under this framework, the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic adds to the ongoing situation. Facing the lack of an effective treatment, the only alternative was the implementation of strict lockdown strategies. The virtual halt of the system undoubtedly affected economic and social behavior, triggering cascading effects such as the drop in winter-spring wildfire activity. In this work, we discuss the main impacts, challenges and consequences that wildfire science may experience due to the pandemic situation, and identify potential opportunities for wildfire management. We investigate the recent evolution of burned area (retrieved from the MCD64A1 v006 MODIS product) in the EU Mediterranean region (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece) to ascertain to what extent the 2020 winter-spring season was impacted by the public health response to COVID-19 (curfews and lockdowns). We accounted for weather conditions (characterized using the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI6) to disregard possible weather effects mediating fire activity. Our results suggest that, under similar drought-related circumstances (SPEI6 ≈ -0.7), the expected burned area in 2020 during the lockdown period in the EU (March-May) would lay somewhere within the range of 38,800 ha ± 18,379 ha. Instead, the affected area stands one order of magnitude below average (3325 ha). This stresses the need of considering the social dimension in the analysis of current and future wildfire impacts in the Mediterranean region.

Geospatial Modeling of Containment Probability for Escaped Wildfires in a Mediterranean Region

Despite escalating expenditures in firefighting, extreme fire events continue to pose a major threat to ecosystem services and human communities in Mediterranean areas. Developing a safe and effective fire response is paramount to efficiently restrict fire spread, reduce negative effects to natural values, prevent residential housing losses, and avoid causalties. Though current fire policies in most countries demand full suppression, few studies have attempted to identify the strategic locations where firefighting efforts would likely contain catastrophic fire events. The success in containing those fires that escape initial attack is determined by diverse structural factors such as ground accessibility, airborne support, barriers to surface fire spread, and vegetation impedance. In this study, we predicted the success in fire containment across Catalonia (northeastern Spain) using a model generated with random forest from detailed geospatial data and a set of 73 fire perimeters for the period 2008-2016. The model attained a high predictive performance (AUC = 0.88), and the results were provided at fine resolution (25 m) for the entire study area (32,108 km² ). The highest success rates were found in agricultural plains along the nonburnable barriers such as major road corridors and largest rivers. Low levels of containment likelihood were predicted for dense forest lands and steep-relief mountainous areas. The results can assist in suppression resource pre-positioning and extended attack decision making, but also in strategic fuels management oriented at creating defensive locations and fragmenting the landscape in operational firefighting areas. Our modeling workflow and methods may serve as a baseline to generate locally adapted models in fire-prone areas elsewhere.