Setting ambitious targets for surveillance and treatment rates among patients with hepatitis C related cirrhosis impacts the cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular cancer surveillance and substantially increases life expectancy: A modeling study

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance based on the Australian Consensus Guidelines: a health economic modelling study

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fastest increasing cause of cancer death in Australia. A recent Australian consensus guidelines recommended HCC surveillance for cirrhotic patients and non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients at gender and age specific cut-offs. A cost-effectiveness model was then developed to assess surveillance strategies in Australia.

METHODS

A microsimulation model was used to evaluate three strategies: biannual ultrasound, biannual ultrasound with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and no formal surveillance for patients having one of the conditions: non-cirrhotic CHB, compensated cirrhosis or decompensated cirrhosis. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses as well as scenario and threshold analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties: including exclusive surveillance of CHB, compensated cirrhosis or decompensated cirrhosis populations; impact of obesity on ultrasound sensitivity; real-world adherence rate; and different cohort's ranges of ages.

RESULTS

Sixty HCC surveillance scenarios were considered for the baseline population. The ultrasound + AFP strategy was the most cost-effective with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) compared to no surveillance falling below the willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) at all age ranges. Ultrasound alone was also cost-effective, but the strategy was dominated by ultrasound + AFP. Surveillance was cost-effective in the compensated and decompensated cirrhosis populations alone (ICERs < $30,000), but not cost-effective in the CHB population (ICERs > $100,000). Obesity could decrease the diagnostic performance of ultrasound, which in turn, reduce the cost-effectiveness of ultrasound ± AFP, but the strategies remained cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC surveillance based on Australian recommendations using biannual ultrasound ± AFP was cost-effective.

Factors associated with nonadherence to surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with hepatic C virus cirrhosis, 2000-2015

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance can detect the early stage of tumors and lead to improved survival. Adherence to guideline-concordant HCC surveillance is crucial in at-risk populations, including patients with hepatic C virus (HCV) cirrhosis. This study was conducted to identify patient and provider factors associated with nonadherence to HCC surveillance in patients with HCV cirrhosis. Data were primarily obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for the 2000 to 2015 period. Adult patients newly diagnosed as having HCV cirrhosis between 2003 and 2012 were enrolled. Each patient was followed up for 3 years and until the end of 2015. Annual HCC surveillance was defined as the uptake of an abdominal ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) test annually during the 3-years follow-up. Nonannual surveillance was defined as the lack of an annual abdominal ultrasound and AFP test during the same 3-years period. Multinomial logistic regression models were applied to determine factors influencing adherence or nonadherence to annual HCC surveillance. We included a total of 4641 patients with HCV cirrhosis for analysis. Of these patients, only 14% adhered to annual HCC surveillance. HCC surveillance improved in later years, compared with the earlier phases of the study period. Patients with HCV cirrhosis comorbid with coronary artery disease (CAD) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or those with a relatively high number of comorbidities had a significantly higher likelihood of nonadherence. Patients who primarily received care from internists were significantly less likely to exhibit nonadherence to annual HCC surveillance compared with patients receiving care from physicians of other specialties. Patients who primarily received care from physicians practicing in larger hospitals were significantly less likely to exhibit nonadherence. HCC surveillance rates remain unacceptably low among high-risk patients, and our findings may be helpful in the development of effective interventions to increase HCC surveillance. The effective incorporation of HCC surveillance into routine visits for other chronic comorbidities, particularly for CAD or COPD, may be crucial for increasing HCC surveillance.

Universal Hepatitis B Antibody Screening and Vaccination in Pregnancy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of universal screening for hepatitis B immunity and vaccination among pregnant women in the United States.

METHODS

We designed a decision-analytic model to evaluate the outcomes, costs, and cost effectiveness associated with universal hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunity screening in pregnancy with vaccination of susceptible individuals compared with no screening. A theoretical cohort of 3.6 million women, the approximate number of annual live births in the United States, was used. Outcomes included cases of HBV, hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, liver transplant and death, in addition to cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Model inputs were derived from the literature, and the willingness-to-pay threshold was $50,000 per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation models were performed to evaluate the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

In a theoretical cohort of 3.6 million women, universal HBV immunity screening and vaccination resulted in 1,702 fewer cases of HBV, seven fewer cases of decompensated cirrhosis, four fewer liver transplants, and 11 fewer deaths over the life expectancy of a woman after pregnancy. Universal screening and vaccination were found to be cost effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1,890 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the model was robust even when the prevalence of HBV immunity was high and the annual risk of HBV acquisition low.

CONCLUSION

Among pregnant women in the United States, universal HBV immunity screening and vaccination of susceptible persons is cost effective compared with not routinely screening and vaccinating.

A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Health Economic Evaluations of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening Strategies

OBJECTIVES

Many economic evaluations of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screenings have been conducted; however, these vary substantially with regards to screening strategies, patient group, and setting. This review aims to report the current knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of screening and describe the published data.

METHODS

We conducted a search of biomedical and health economic databases up to July 2020. We included full and partial health economic studies if they evaluated the costs or outcomes of HCC screening strategies.

RESULTS

The review included 43 studies. Due to significant heterogeneity in key aspects across the studies, a narrative synthesis was conducted. Most studies reported using ultrasound or alpha fetoprotein as screening strategies. Screening intervals were mostly annual or biannual. Incidence, diagnostic performance, and health state utility values were the most critical parameters affecting the cost-effectiveness of screening. The majority of studies reported HCC screening to be cost-effective, with the biannual ultrasound + alpha fetoprotein standing out as the most cost-effective strategy. However, few studies considered the utilization rate, and none considered the diagnostic performance of ultrasound in the context of central adiposity. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging were also evaluated, but its cost-effectiveness was still controversial.

CONCLUSIONS

Although many studies suggested HCC screening was cost-effective, substantial limitations of the quality of these studies means the results should be interpreted with caution. Future modeling studies should consider the impact of central adiposity on the precision of ultrasound, real-world utilization rates and projections of increased HCC incidence.

Cost-effectiveness of Direct Antiviral Agents for Hepatitis C Virus Infection and a Combined Intervention of Syringe Access and Medication-assisted Therapy for Opioid Use Disorders in an Injection Drug Use Population

BACKGROUND

There are too many plausible permutations and scale-up scenarios of combination hepatitis C virus (HCV) interventions for exhaustive testing in experimental trials. Therefore, we used a computer simulation to project the health and economic impacts of alternative combination intervention scenarios for people who inject drugs (PWID), focusing on direct antiviral agents (DAA) and medication-assisted treatment combined with syringe access programs (MAT+).

METHODS

We performed an allocative efficiency study, using a mathematical model to simulate the progression of HCV in PWID and its related consequences. We combined 2 previously validated simulations to estimate the cost-effectiveness of intervention strategies that included a range of coverage levels. Analyses were performed from a health-sector and societal perspective, with a 15-year time horizon and a discount rate of 3%.

RESULTS

From a health-sector perspective (excluding criminal justice system-related costs), 4 potential strategies fell on the cost-efficiency frontier. At 20% coverage, DAAs had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $27 251/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Combinations of DAA at 20% with MAT+ at 20%, 40%, and 80% coverage had ICERs of $165 985/QALY, $325 860/QALY, and $399 189/QALY, respectively. When analyzed from a societal perspective (including criminal justice system-related costs), DAA at 20% with MAT+ at 80% was the most effective intervention and was cost saving. While DAA at 20% with MAT+ at 80% was more expensive (eg, less cost saving) than MAT+ at 80% alone without DAA, it offered a favorable value compared to MAT+ at 80% alone ($23 932/QALY).

CONCLUSIONS

When considering health-sector costs alone, DAA alone was the most cost-effective intervention. However, with criminal justice system-related costs, DAA and MAT+ implemented together became the most cost-effective intervention.