Personal response to immune checkpoint inhibitors of patients with advanced melanoma explained by a computational model of cellular immunity, tumor growth, and drug

Global stability and parameter analysis reinforce therapeutic targets of PD-L1-PD-1 and MDSCs for glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive primary brain cancer that currently has minimally effective treatments. Like other cancers, immunosuppression by the PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint complex is a prominent axis by which glioma cells evade the immune system. Myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), which are recruited to the glioma microenviroment, also contribute to the immunosuppressed GBM microenvironment by suppressing T cell functions. In this paper, we propose a GBM-specific tumor-immune ordinary differential equations model of glioma cells, T cells, and MDSCs to provide theoretical insights into the interactions between these cells. Equilibrium and stability analysis indicates that there are unique tumorous and tumor-free equilibria which are locally stable under certain conditions. Further, the tumor-free equilibrium is globally stable when T cell activation and the tumor kill rate by T cells overcome tumor growth, T cell inhibition by PD-L1-PD-1 and MDSCs, and the T cell death rate. Bifurcation analysis suggests that a treatment plan that includes surgical resection and therapeutics targeting immune suppression caused by the PD-L1-PD1 complex and MDSCs results in the system tending to the tumor-free equilibrium. Using a set of preclinical experimental data, we implement the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) rejection method to construct probability density distributions that estimate model parameters. These distributions inform an appropriate search curve for global sensitivity analysis using the extended fourier amplitude sensitivity test. Sensitivity results combined with the ABC method suggest that parameter interaction is occurring between the drivers of tumor burden, which are the tumor growth rate and carrying capacity as well as the tumor kill rate by T cells, and the two modeled forms of immunosuppression, PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint and MDSC suppression of T cells. Thus, treatment with an immune checkpoint inhibitor in combination with a therapeutic targeting the inhibitory mechanisms of MDSCs should be explored.

Melanoma 2.0. Skin cancer as a paradigm for emerging diagnostic technologies, computational modelling and artificial intelligence

We live in an unprecedented time in oncology. We have accumulated samples and cases in cohorts larger and more complex than ever before. New technologies are available for quantifying solid or liquid samples at the molecular level. At the same time, we are now equipped with the computational power necessary to handle this enormous amount of quantitative data. Computational models are widely used helping us to substantiate and interpret data. Under the label of systems and precision medicine, we are putting all these developments together to improve and personalize the therapy of cancer. In this review, we use melanoma as a paradigm to present the successful application of these technologies but also to discuss possible future developments in patient care linked to them. Melanoma is a paradigmatic case for disruptive improvements in therapies, with a considerable number of metastatic melanoma patients benefiting from novel therapies. Nevertheless, a large proportion of patients does not respond to therapy or suffers from adverse events. Melanoma is an ideal case study to deploy advanced technologies not only due to the medical need but also to some intrinsic features of melanoma as a disease and the skin as an organ. From the perspective of data acquisition, the skin is the ideal organ due to its accessibility and suitability for many kinds of advanced imaging techniques. We put special emphasis on the necessity of computational strategies to integrate multiple sources of quantitative data describing the tumour at different scales and levels.

The Role of Mathematical Models in Immuno-Oncology: Challenges and Future Perspectives

Immuno-oncology (IO) focuses on the ability of the immune system to detect and eliminate cancer cells. Since the approval of the first immune checkpoint inhibitor, immunotherapies have become a major player in oncology treatment and, in 2021, represented the highest number of approved drugs in the field. In spite of this, there is still a fraction of patients that do not respond to these therapies and develop resistance mechanisms. In this sense, mathematical models offer an opportunity to identify predictive biomarkers, optimal dosing schedules and rational combinations to maximize clinical response. This work aims to outline the main therapeutic targets in IO and to provide a description of the different mathematical approaches (top-down, middle-out, and bottom-up) integrating the cancer immunity cycle with immunotherapeutic agents in clinical scenarios. Among the different strategies, middle-out models, which combine both theoretical and evidence-based description of tumor growth and immunological cell-type dynamics, represent an optimal framework to evaluate new IO strategies.

Efficacy and safety of anti-PD-1 inhibitor combined with nab-paclitaxel in Chinese patients with refractory melanoma

PURPOSE

This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the combined effect of anti-PD-1 inhibitor and nanoparticle albumin-bound (nab)-paclitaxel for refractory melanoma among Chinese patients.

METHODS

Data from January 2018 to March 2021 were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Sixty-four patients were eligible for analysis from a single Chinese cancer center.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 16.0 months at data cutoff. The objective response rate (ORR) was 29.7%, and the disease control rate (DCR) was 67.2% in all patients. Treatment-naïve patients had significantly higher ORR than pretreated patients (42.9% vs 13.8%, p = 0.011). Cutaneous melanoma patients with NRAS gene mutation benefited more than non-mutated patients (DCR of 100% vs. 54.5%) (p = 0.030). The median progression-free survival (mPFS) of all patients was 5.2 months and the duration of response was 10.8 months. Median duration of disease control was 7.7 months. Prior treatment-naïve patients had significantly longer PFS than those who accepted prior treatments (7.2 vs. 5.1 months, p = 0.024). Patients with abnormally high LDH level had shorter mPFS (3.6 months vs. 6.6 months, p = 0.020). Median overall survival was not reached in this study. Most patients experienced adverse events (AEs), but only 17.2% of patients experienced grade 3 severe AEs. The most common AEs were alopecia (89.1%), neutropenia (18.8%), pruritus (15.6%), and arthralgia (14.1%). Some patients had immune related AEs (irAEs). No grade 4 or 5 AEs were observed. Patients with ≥ 3 AEs or with irAEs had longer mPFS (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Nab-paclitaxel combined with PD-1 antibody is a well-tolerated and effective regimen for Chinese patients with refractory melanoma.

A New Method for Optimizing Sepsis Therapy by Nivolumab and Meropenem Combination: Importance of Early Intervention and CTL Reinvigoration Rate as a Response Marker

Background: Recently, there has been a growing interest in applying immune checkpoint blockers (ICBs), so far used to treat cancer, to patients with bacterial sepsis. We aimed to develop a method for predicting the personal benefit of potential treatments for sepsis, and to apply it to therapy by meropenem, an antibiotic drug, and nivolumab, a programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) pathway inhibitor.

Methods: We defined an optimization problem as a concise framework of treatment aims and formulated a fitness function for grading sepsis treatments according to their success in accomplishing the pre-defined aims. We developed a mathematical model for the interactions between the pathogen, the cellular immune system and the drugs, whose simulations under diverse combined meropenem and nivolumab schedules, and calculation of the fitness function for each schedule served to plot the fitness landscapes for each set of treatments and personal patient parameters.

Results: Results show that treatment by meropenem and nivolumab has maximum benefit if the interval between the onset of the two drugs does not exceed a dose-dependent threshold, beyond which the benefit drops sharply. However, a second nivolumab application, within 7–10 days after the first, can extinguish a pathogen which the first nivolumab application failed to remove. The utility of increasing nivolumab total dose above 6 mg/kg is contingent on the patient's personal immune attributes, notably, the reinvigoration rate of exhausted CTLs and the overall suppression rates of functional CTLs. A baseline pathogen load, higher than 5,000 CFU/μL, precludes successful nivolumab and meropenem combination therapy, whereas when the initial load is lower than 3,000 CFU/μL, meropenem monotherapy suffices for removing the pathogen.

Discussion: Our study shows that early administration of nivolumab, 6 mg/kg, in combination with antibiotics, can alleviate bacterial sepsis in cases where antibiotics alone are insufficient and the initial pathogen load is not too high. The study pinpoints the role of precision medicine in sepsis, suggesting that personalized therapy by ICBs can improve pathogen elimination and dampen immunosuppression. Our results highlight the importance in using reliable markers for classifying patients according to their predicted response and provides a valuable tool in personalizing the drug regimens for patients with sepsis.

Computational modelling of modern cancer immunotherapy

Modern cancer immunotherapy has revolutionised oncology and carries the potential to radically change the approach to cancer treatment. However, numerous questions remain to be answered to understand immunotherapy response better and further improve the benefit for future cancer patients. Computational models are promising tools that can contribute to accelerated immunotherapy research by providing new clues and hypotheses that could be tested in future trials, based on preceding simulations in addition to the empirical rationale. In this topical review, we briefly summarise the history of cancer immunotherapy, including computational modelling of traditional cancer immunotherapy, and comprehensively review computational models of modern cancer immunotherapy, such as immune checkpoint inhibitors (as monotherapy and combination treatment), co-stimulatory agonistic antibodies, bispecific antibodies, and chimeric antigen receptor T cells. The modelling approaches are classified into one of the following categories: data-driven top-down vs mechanistic bottom-up, simplistic vs detailed, continuous vs discrete, and hybrid. Several common modelling approaches are summarised, such as pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models, Lotka-Volterra models, evolutionary game theory models, quantitative systems pharmacology models, spatio-temporal models, agent-based models, and logic-based models. Pros and cons of each modelling approach are critically discussed, particularly with the focus on the potential for successful translation into immuno-oncology research and routine clinical practice. Specific attention is paid to calibration and validation of each model, which is a necessary prerequisite for any successful model, and at the same time, one of the main obstacles. Lastly, we provide guidelines and suggestions for the future development of the field.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Approaches for Immuno-Oncology: Adding Virtual Patients to the Development Paradigm

Drug development in oncology commonly exploits the tools of molecular biology to gain therapeutic benefit through reprograming of cellular responses. In immuno‐oncology (IO) the aim is to direct the patient’s own immune system to fight cancer. After remarkable successes of antibodies targeting PD1/PD‐L1 and CTLA4 receptors in targeted patient populations, the focus of further development has shifted toward combination therapies. However, the current drug‐development approach of exploiting a vast number of possible combination targets and dosing regimens has proven to be challenging and is arguably inefficient. In particular, the unprecedented number of clinical trials testing different combinations may no longer be sustainable by the population of available patients. Further development in IO requires a step change in selection and validation of candidate therapies to decrease development attrition rate and limit the number of clinical trials. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) proposes to tackle this challenge through mechanistic modeling and simulation. Compounds’ pharmacokinetics, target binding, and mechanisms of action as well as existing knowledge on the underlying tumor and immune system biology are described by quantitative, dynamic models aiming to predict clinical results for novel combinations. Here, we review the current QSP approaches, the legacy of mathematical models available to quantitative clinical pharmacologists describing interaction between tumor and immune system, and the recent development of IO QSP platform models. We argue that QSP and virtual patients can be integrated as a new tool in existing IO drug development approaches to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the search for novel combination therapies.

Accelerating the Development of Personalized Cancer Immunotherapy by Integrating Molecular Patients' Profiles with Dynamic Mathematical Models

We review the evolution, achievements, and limitations of the current paradigm shift in medicine, from the "one-size-fits-all" model to "Precision Medicine." Precision, or personalized, medicine-tailoring the medical treatment to the personal characteristics of each patient-engages advanced statistical methods to evaluate the relationships between static patient profiling (e.g., genomic and proteomic), and a simple clinically motivated output (e.g., yes/no responder). Today, precision medicine technologies that have facilitated groundbreaking advances in oncology, notably in cancer immunotherapy, are approaching the limits of their potential, mainly due to the scarcity of methods for integrating genomic, proteomic and clinical patient information. A different approach to treatment personalization involves methodologies focusing on the dynamic interactions in the patient-disease-drug system, as portrayed in mathematical modeling. Achievements of this scientific approach, in the form of algorithms for predicting personal disease dynamics in individual patients under immunotherapeutic drugs, are reviewed as well. The contribution of the dynamic approaches to precision medicine is limited, at present, due to insufficient applicability and validation. Yet, the time is ripe for amalgamating together these two approaches, for maximizing their joint potential to personalize and improve cancer immunotherapy. We suggest the roadmap toward achieving this goal, technologically, and urge clinicians, pharmacologists, and computational biologists to join forces along the pharmaco-clinical track of this development.

Toward Systems Biomarkers of Response to Immune Checkpoint Blockers

Immunotherapy with checkpoint blockers (ICBs), aimed at unleashing the immune response toward tumor cells, has shown a great improvement in overall patient survival compared to standard therapy, but only in a subset of patients. While a number of recent studies have significantly improved our understanding of mechanisms playing an important role in the tumor microenvironment (TME), we still have an incomplete view of how the TME works as a whole. This hampers our ability to effectively predict the large heterogeneity of patients' response to ICBs. Systems approaches could overcome this limitation by adopting a holistic perspective to analyze the complexity of tumors. In this Mini Review, we focus on how an integrative view of the increasingly available multi-omics experimental data and computational approaches enables the definition of new systems-based predictive biomarkers. In particular, we will focus on three facets of the TME toward the definition of new systems biomarkers. First, we will review how different types of immune cells influence the efficacy of ICBs, not only in terms of their quantification, but also considering their localization and functional state. Second, we will focus on how different cells in the TME interact, analyzing how inter- and intra-cellular networks play an important role in shaping the immune response and are responsible for resistance to immunotherapy. Finally, we will describe the potential of looking at these networks as dynamic systems and how mathematical models can be used to study the rewiring of the complex interactions taking place in the TME.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model of T Cell Engager Applied to Solid Tumor

Cancer immunotherapy has recently drawn remarkable attention as promising results in the clinic have shown its ability to improve the overall survival, and T cells are considered to be one of the primary effectors for cancer immunotherapy. Enhanced and restored T cell tumoricidal activity has shown great potential for killing cancer cells. Bispecific T cell engagers (TCEs) are a growing class of molecules that are designed to bind two different antigens on the surface of T cells and cancer cells to bring them in close proximity and selectively activate effector T cells to kill target cancer cells. New T cell engagers are being investigated for the treatment of solid tumors. The activity of newly developed T cell engagers showed a strong correlation with tumor target antigen expression. However, the correlation between tumor-associated antigen expression and overall response of cancer patients is poorly understood. In this study, we used a well-calibrated quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model extended to bispecific T cell engagers to explore their efficacy and identify potential biomarkers. In principle, patient-specific response can be predicted through this model according to each patient's individual characteristics. This extended QSP model has been calibrated with available experimental data and provides predictions of patients' response to TCE treatment.