Thermal stress jeopardizes carbonate production of coral reefs across the western and central Pacific Ocean

Coastal seawater turbidity and thermal stress control growth of reef-building Porites spp. corals in Fiji

Nearshore reefs, at the interface of land-sea interactions, provide essential ecosystem services, but are susceptible to multiple global and local stressors. These stressors can detrimentally impact coral growth and the continuity of the reef framework. Here, we analyse coral growth records (1998 - 2016) of massive Porites spp. colonies from nearshore reefs in Fiji. Our aim is to assess the role of thermal stress and turbidity on coral growth across a range of environments. Our findings reveal a negative linear relationship between linear extension and seawater turbidity across locations (GLM, R2 = 0.42, p < 0.001), indicating that average coral growth is significantly influenced by local environmental conditions. On interannual timescales, all locations experienced a 14% to 30% decrease in linear extension in response to acute thermal stress during the 2013 - 2016 period. This finding highlights the existence of compounding effects between water quality and thermal stress. We suggest that inshore, long-lived massive hard corals in areas of high turbidity are more vulnerable to increasing SSTs due to an already reduced mean growth. Integrated management strategies in these regions that considers managing for multiple, interacting local stressors are warranted to enhance resilience.

Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development

The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000 years. Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC); however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth. We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC. With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5 mm year^-1, reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO₂ emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories. With an estimated RAP of just 0.3 mm year^-1, reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm year^-1). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases.

Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km² ) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.