Geographic weighted regression analysis of hot spots of anemia and its associated factors among children aged 6-59 months in Ethiopia: A geographic weighted regression analysis and multilevel robust Poisson regression analysis

Determinants of aggregate anthropometric failure among children under-five years in Ethiopia: Application of multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial regression modeling

Undernutrition significantly contributes to failure to thrive in children under five, with those experiencing multiple forms of malnutrition facing the highest risks of morbidity and mortality. Conventional markers such as stunting, wasting, and underweight have received much attention but are insufficient to identify multiple types of malnutrition, prompting the development of the Composite Index of Anthropometric Failure (CIAF) and the Composite Index of Severe Anthropometric Failure (CISAF) as an aggregate indicators. This study aimed to identify factors associated with CIAF and CISAF among Ethiopian children aged 0-59 months using data from the 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey. The study included a weighted sample of 5,259 children and used multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial regression modeling to identify determinants of CIAF and CISAF. The result showed higher incidence-rate ratio (IRR) of CIAF in male children (adjusted IRR = 1.27; 95% CI = 1.13-1.42), children aged 12-24 months (aIRR = 2.01, 95%CI: 1.63-2.48), and 24-59 months (aIRR = 2.36, 95%CI: 1.91-2.92), those from households with multiple under-five children (aIRR = 1.16, 95%CI: 1.01-1.33), poorer households (aIRR = 1.48; 95%CI: 1.02-2.15), and those who lived in houses with an earthen floor (aIRR = 1.37, 95%CI: 1.03-1.82). Similarly, the factors positively associated with CISAF among children aged 0-59 months were male children (aIRR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.21-1.79), age group 6-11 months (aIRR = 2.30, 95%CI: 1.40-3.78), age group 12-24 months (aIRR = 3.76, 95%CI: 2.40-5.88), age group 25-59 months (aIRR = 4.23, 95%CI: 2.79-6.39), children from households living with two and more under-five children (aIRR = 1.27, 95%CI:1.01-1.59), and children from poorer households (aIRR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.02-3.67). Children were more likely to suffer from multiple anthropometric failures if they were: aged 6-23 months, aged 24-59 months, male sex, living in households with multiple under-five children, and living in households with poor environments. These findings underscore the need to employ a wide range of strategies to effectively intervene in multiple anthropometric failures in under-five children.

Geographically weighted regression analysis to assess hotspots of early sexual initiation and associated factors in Ethiopia

Background

Early sexual initiation (ESI) causes unintended pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections (STI), high risk of depression and anxiety, developmental delays, lack of emotional maturity, and difficulty in pursuing education. This study aims to analyze the geographically weighted regression and associated factors of ESI of women in Ethiopia.

Methods

The study utilized data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, 2016. It included a weighted sample of 11,775 women. Spatial regression was carried out to determine which factors are related to hotspots of ESI of women. To identify the factors associated with ESI, a multilevel Poisson regression model with robust variance was conducted. An adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) with its 95 % confidence interval was presented.

Results

The prevalence of ESI was 75.3 % (95%CI: 74.6 %, 76.1 %), showing notable spatial variation across different regions of Ethiopia. Areas of significant hotspots of ESI were identified in Western and Southern Tigray, most parts of Amhara, Southern, Central and Western Afar, Eastern Gambella, and North Western SNNPR. The significant variables for the spatial variation of ESI were; being single, rural residence, and having no formal education of the women. Factors including; wealth index, marital status, khat chewing, education level, residence, and region were associated significantly with ESI in the multilevel robust Poisson analysis.

Conclusion

A higher proportion of ESI in women was found. Public health interventions must be made by targeting hotspot areas of ESI through increasing health care access and education (specifically among rural residents), developing a comprehensive sexual education, implementing policies and laws that outlaw early marriage, and mass community-based programs to increase awareness about the importance of delaying sexual activity.

Spatial mapping and predictors of ever-tested for HIV in adolescent girls and young women in Ethiopia

Background

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are expected to be healthy in life. However, the unique health challenges faced by AGYW include unsafe sex practices and substance abuse. Only 46.3% of AGYW in Africa are aware of their HIV status, and difficulties are underlined in HIV testing among adolescents and young people. To demarcate the areas with low and high HIV testing, this study aimed to map predictors of ever-tested for HIV among adolescent girls and young women in Ethiopia.

Methods

Secondary data analysis was conducted using the dataset from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EHDS). We conducted spatial autocorrelation and Moran's I statistics to investigate the regional variance of HIV being ever-tested in AGYW. In addition, spatial regression analyses such as ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were carried out to determine the predictors of being ever-tested for HIV among AGYW.

Results

Addis Ababa, some parts of Amhara, Dire Dawa, Gambela, and Tigray were the primary regions and city administrations for being ever-tested for HIV among AGYW. A lesser proportion of AGYW being ever-tested for HIV was found in Somalia, Afar, Benshangul Gumuz, and southern nations. Spatial regression analyses identified an age range of 15-19 years, being Muslim, having no formal education, having no knowledge about HIV, and experiencing severe stigma as predictors of being ever-tested for HIV among AGYW.

Conclusion

The proportion of AGYW being ever-tested for HIV was high in Addis Ababa, some parts of Amhara, Dire Dawa, Gambela, and Tigray. Spatial regression analyses identified that AGYW aged 15-19 years, having no formal education, having no knowledge about HIV, and experiencing severe community stigma as predictors negatively affecting the proportion of being ever-tested for HIV, while being Muslim was a predictor that positively affected the proportion of being ever-tested for HIV. The governments and other stakeholders should focus on increasing HIV testing among these special groups of the population.

Spatiotemporal modeling of under-five mortality and associated risk factors in Ethiopia using 2000-2016 EDHS data

BACKGROUND

The under-five mortality rate serves as a key indicator of the performance of a country's healthcare system. Despite a minor decline, Ethiopia continues to face a persistently high under-five mortality rate across different zones. Thus, this study aimed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality and the spatiotemporal variation in Ethiopian administrative zones.

METHOD

This study used the 2000-2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data which were collected using a two-stage sampling method. A total of 43,029 (10,873 in 2000, 9,861 in 2005, 11,654 in 2011, and 10,641 in 2016) weighted sample under-five child mortality were used. The space-time dynamic model was employed to account for spatial and time effects in 65 administrative zones in Ethiopia.

RESULTS

From the result of a general nesting spatial-temporal dynamic model, there was a significant space-time interaction effect [γ = -0.1444, 95% CI(-0.6680, -0.1355)] for under-five mortality. The increase in the percentages of mothers illiteracy [β = 0.4501, 95% CI (0.2442, 0.6559)], not vaccinated[β= 0.7681, 95% CI (0.5683, 0.9678)], unimproved water[β= 0.5801, CI (0.3793, 0.7808)] were increased death rates for under five children while increased percentage of contraceptive use [β= -0.6609, 95% CI (-0.8636, -0.4582)] and antenatal care unit visit > 4 times [β= -0.1585, 95% CI(-0.1812, -0.1357)] were contributed to the decreased under-five mortality rate at the zone in Ethiopia.

CONCLUSIONS

Even though the mortality rate for children under five has decreased over time, still there is higher in different zones of Ethiopia. There exists spatial and temporal variation in under-five mortality among zones. Therefore, it is very important to consider spatial neighborhood's and temporal context when aiming to avoid under-five mortality.

Household environment associated with anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis of Ethiopia demographic and health survey (2005-2016)

BACKGROUND

Anaemia continues to be a major public health challenge globally, including in Ethiopia. Previous studies have suggested that improved household environmental conditions may reduce anaemia prevalence; however, population-level evidence of this link is lacking in low-income countries. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the association between environmental factors and childhood anaemia in Ethiopia.

METHODS

In this study, we conducted an analysis of the data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), a nationally representative population-based survey conducted in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2016. The study included a total of 21,918 children aged 6-59 months. Children were considered anemic if their hemoglobin (Hb) concentration was less than 11.0 g/dl. To examine the association between environmental factors and anemia, we used multilevel mixed-effect models. These models allowed us to control for various confounding factors including: child, maternal, household and community-level variables. The study findings have been reported as adjusted odds ratios (AORs) along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) at a significance level of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The study found the overall prevalence of childhood anaemia to be 49.3% (95%CI: 48.7-49.9) between 2005 and 2016 in Ethiopia. The prevalence was 47.6% (95%CI: 46.1-49.1) in 2005, 42.8% (95%CI: 41.8-43.8) in 2011, and increased to 57.4% (95%CI: 56.3-58.4) in 2016. The pooled data showed that children from households practising open defecation were more likely to be anaemic (AOR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05-1.36). In our survey specify analysis, the odds of anaemia were higher among children from households practising open defecation (AOR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.12-1.58) in the EDHS-2011 and EDHS-2016 (AOR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.13-1.90). In contrast, neither household water sources nor the time to obtain water was associated with anaemia after controlling for potential confounders. The other variables significantly associated with childhood anaemia include: the child's age (6-35 months), not fully vaccinated (AOR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.05-1.24), children not dewormed in the last 6 months (AOR: 1.11, 95%CI: 1.01-1.24), children born to mothers not working (AOR: 1.10, 95%CI: 1.02-1.19), children from poor households (AOR: 1.18: 95%CI: 1.06-1.31), and rural residence (AOR: 1.23, 95%CI: 1.06-1.42).

CONCLUSION

In Ethiopia, about fifty percent of children suffer from childhood anemia, making it a serious public health issue. Open defecation is a major contributing factor to this scourge. To address this issue effectively, it is recommended to strengthen initiatives aimed at eliminating open defecation that involve various approaches, including sanitation infrastructure development, behavior change campaigns, and policy interventions. In addition, to reduce the burden of anemia in children, a multi-faceted approach is necessary, involving both prevention and treatment strategies.

Gender-specific disaggregated analysis of childhood undernutrition in Ethiopia: evidence from 2000-2016 nationwide survey

INTRODUCTION

Childhood undernutrition has been investigated extensively in previous literature but gender inequality detailing the burden of undernutrition has not been adequately addressed in scientific papers, especially in Ethiopia, where undernutrition is known to be a public health problem of high significance, necessitating increased efforts to address it and reduce this inequality. This study was carried out to: (1) explore gender differences in the prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight, and (2) compare the factors associated with childhood undernutrition between boys and girls in Ethiopia.

METHODS

The study used a dataset of more than 33,564 children aged under 5 years (boys: 17,078 and girls: 16,486) who were included in the nationally representative Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) from 2000 to 2016. The outcome variables were anthropometric indices: stunting (height-for-age < -2 standard deviations), wasting (weight-for-height < -2 standard deviations), and underweight (weight-for-age < -2 standard deviations). Gender-specific multilevel analyses were used to examine and compare the factors associated with child undernutrition.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of stunting (49.1% for boys vs 45.3% for girls, p < 0.001), wasting (11.9% for boys vs 9.9% for girls, p < 0.001), and underweight (33.1% for boys vs 29.8% for girls, p < 0.001) higher among boys compared to girls. Boys significantly had higher odds of stunting (aOR: 1.31, 95%CI: 1.21-1.42), wasting (aOR: 1.35, 1.23-1.48), and underweight (aOR: 1.38, 95%CI: 1.26-1.50) than girls. The common factors associated with childhood undernutrition for male and female children were the child's age, perceived size of the child at birth, breastfeeding status, maternal stature, maternal education, toilet facility, wealth index, and place of residence. Boys who were perceived by their mothers to be average sized at birth and were born to uneducated mothers had a higher likelihood of experiencing wasting, in contrast to girls. Among boys, birth order (firstborn), household size (1-4), and place of residence (urban) were associated with lower odds of being underweight. Boys living in cities had lower odds of being stunted. While girls born to mothers with no education and worked in agriculture were at a higher odd of being stunted.

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed that boys were more likely to be malnourished than girls, regardless of their age category, and there were variations in the factors determining undernutrition among boys and girls. The differences in the burden of undernutrition were significant and alarming, positioning Ethiopia to be questioned whether it will meet the set Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 of zero hunger by 2030. These findings call for more effort to address malnutrition as a significant public health issue in Ethiopia, and to urgently recognise the need for enhanced interventions that address the gender gap in childhood undernutrition.

Urban-rural inequalities and spatial arrangement of informed choice of family planning in Ethiopia: Further analysis of 2016 Ethiopian demographic health survey

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia has made satisfactory progress in improving maternal and child health over the past two decades. The introduction of family planning through informed choice is one of the main strategies to improve maternal and child health. However, this positive progress may have masked the significant urban-rural disparities in informed choice for family planning.

OBJECTIVE

To identify factor contributing to observed urban-rural disparities and to determine the spatial distribution of informed family planning choices in Ethiopia.

METHODS

The study used information from 3,511 women currently using contraceptives (rural-2685 and urban-826) as per recent Ethiopian demographic health survey cross-sectional data. Spatial and descriptive, bivariable, and multivariable logit-based decomposition analysis methods were used.

RESULTS

The spatial configuration of uninformed choice was clustered. The primary cluster (LLR = 34.8, p-value<0.001) was located at the southern portion of Amhara region that covers east & west Gojjam, south Gondar and south Wollo administrative zones. The magnitude of informed choice was 12 percent higher in urban residents compared to rural residents. Urban-rural gap was attributed to variations in characteristics (74%). Place of family planning offer i.e., private health facility, being aged between 35 and 49 years, and having visited to health facility in the last 1 year are found decrease the urban-rural gap of informed family planning choice by 15%, 9% and 5% respectively. Conversely, being aged between 25 and 34 years, being a listener to radio has increased the gap by 9% and 12% respectively.

CONCLUSION

The variables being private health facility visitors, being aged between 35 and 49 years and having visited health facilities in the last one year are found to increase the gap of informed family planning choices between urban and rural residents Besides, the spatial distribution of uninformed family planning choices is non-random.

Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of child anemia in Ethiopia using conditional autoregressive model

Anemia is a common health problem for women and under five children in low income countries. According to the WHO, anemia is considered a serious public health problem when the prevalence is greater than 40%. The prevalence of anemia among children under five in Ethiopia changes over time, and is spatially correlated because it is influenced by environmental, socio-economic and other related factors. However, to our knowledge, there is no small area level estimates of anemia among children under five in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess zonal level estimates of anemia using a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive modeling approach. The data for the study was extracted from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) from 2005 to 2016. A sample of 18,939 children aged 6-59 months were considered for this study. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was implemented to identify the risk of child anemia. Smoothed relative risks along with the 95% credible interval were reported. The queen's adjacency matrix method was used in spatial smoothing and in estimating the relative risk. The prevalence of anemia among children aged 6-59 months in Ethiopia was 54% in 2005, 44% in 2011 and 57% in 2016. This study showed that low maternal education, low socio-economic status of women, and maternal anemia at zone level were strongly associated with child anemia in Ethiopia. Therefore, enhancing education for women, improving women's socioeconomic status, and mitigating maternal anemia are crucial to reduce the prevalence of childhood anemia in Ethiopia.

Geographical weighted regression analysis of delayed antenatal care initiation and its factors among all reproductive-aged women in Ethiopia, 2016

Background

Delayed antenatal care is when the first visit is carried out after 12 gestational weeks. Despite the fact that many studies have been conducted on antenatal care initiation, little attention has been paid to its spatial pattern. Therefore, this study examine geographical weighted regression analysis of delayed antenatal care initiation and its factors among all reproductive-aged women in Ethiopia.

Objective

To assess geographical weighted regression analysis of delayed antenatal care initiation and its factors among all reproductive-aged women in Ethiopia, 2016.

Methods

This study was grounded on the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey. It incorporated extracted sample size of 4740 (weighted) reproductive-aged women. ArcGIS version 10.8 and SaTScan™ version 9.7 software were employed to investigate geographic information. To distinguish factors associated with hotspot areas, local and global models were fitted.

Result

the geographic pattern of Delayed antenatal care initiation was clustered (Moran’s I = 0.38, p < 0.001). Kuldorff’s spatial scan statistics discovered three significant clusters. The most likely cluster (LLR = 66.13, p < 0.001) was situated at the zones of SNNP and Oromia regions. In the local model, being uneducated, being poor wealth, having an unwanted pregnancy, and having higher birth order were factors associated with spatial variation of delayed antenatal care.

Conclusion

The spatial pattern of delayed antenatal care in Ethiopia is clustered. Maternal education, wealth status, pregnancy desirability, and birth order were predictor variables of spatial variation of delayed antenatal care. Therefore, designing a hotspot area-based interventional plan could help to improve early ANC initiation.

A Predictive Model of Regional Dementia Prevalence Using Geographic Weighted Regression Analysis

Globally, dementia is one of the highest priority public health policy issues. This study was conducted to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of dementia prevalence using geographic weighted regression analysis and to identify preventable risk factors at the regional level of dementia prevalence. For the data to be analyzed, this work used the 2020 regional dementia prevalence index of the Korea Central Dementia Center and the regional health statistics of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). Spatial autocorrelation analysis, hot spot analysis, and geographic weighted regression analysis were performed to identify regional associations of dementia prevalence, cluster regions with high dementia prevalence, and risk factors for regional dementia prevalence. As a result of the hot spot analysis, the regions corresponding to the hot spots with the high prevalence of dementia were found to be adjacent to each other, such as in Jeonnam, Jeonbuk, and Gyeongbuk, and the regions corresponding to the cold spots with the low prevalence of dementia were adjacent to each other, such as Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon, Busan, and Ulsan. The results of geographic weighted regression analysis showed that educational level, walking practice rate, hypertension prevalence, and a low-sodium diet preference were found to be risk factors for the prevalence of dementia. These results suggest that there is a need for a dementia prevalence management strategy to increase the walking practice rate and low-sodium diet preference rate, and decrease the hypertension prevalence, centering on the hot spot area, which is a cluster area with high dementia prevalence. This study is expected to be useful as basic data that can help in prioritizing health policies considering spatial characteristics for community health promotion.