Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree

Population Genetics Provides Insights Into the Impact of Future Climate Change on the Genetic Structure and Distribution of Asian Warty Newts (Genus Paramesotriton)

Assessing population vulnerability to climate change is essential for informing management and conservation strategies, particularly for amphibians. We integrated population genetics and ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the effect of climate change on the distribution and genetic structure of two species of Asian warty newts (Paramesotriton deloustali and P. guangxiensis) in northern Vietnam. We analyzed population genetics using a genome-wide SNP dataset generated with the MIG-seq method. Additionally, we applied ensemble ecological niche modeling (ENM) to predict the potential distribution of warty newts under two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2050 and 2090. Population genetics revealed three primary groups: West, East + Cao Bang (CB), and Quang Ninh (QN). CB exhibited discordance between mitochondrial DNA and single-nucleotide nuclear DNA polymorphism data. Furthermore, gene flow within populations was restricted, particularly within West and QN. Spatial distribution analyses of genetic clusters conditioned by environmental variables predicted that the East + CB genetic cluster would expand, whereas those of West and QN would decrease. The introgression of genetic structures probably reduces the vulnerability of East + CB to climate change. ENM analysis revealed that these newts are susceptible to climate change, resulting in a reduction in their suitable habitat areas across all scenarios. We also observed a shift in the suitable distribution toward higher elevations. Our results suggest that the mountainous areas of northern Vietnam could serve as potential refugia for these newts as the effects of climate change intensify.

Assessment of future habitat suitability and ecological vulnerability of Collichthys at population and species level

BACKGROUND

Global warming and extreme weather events driven by greenhouse gas emissions are significantly impacting fish survival and reproduction, leading to dramatic consequences for marine biodiversity and ecosystem stability. Comparative analysis of closely related species from a phylogenetic perspective provides valuable insights for biodiversity conservation efforts. The study investigates the effects of climate change on the suitability of habitat and ecological vulnerability of two important sibling fishes, Collichthys lucidus and Collichthys niveatus, in the western Pacific.

RESULTS

This study found that the main driver of ecological niche differences between the two species is the niche contraction of C. niveatus. Predictions from species distribution models indicate that C. lucidus has a wider distribution and greater adaptability under future climate scenarios. Both species will experience significant habitat loss and heightened ecological vulnerability in the southern Yellow Sea. Additionally, the two populations of C. lucidus in the Yangtze River estuary display different levels of ecological vulnerability. These two species also exhibit distinct responses to environmental factors such as temperature and chlorophyll concentration.

CONCLUSION

The study's findings indicate that climate change will accelerate the population differentiation of C. lucidus and the habitat loss of C. niveatus. These results underscore the importance of prioritizing the southern Yellow Sea in future research and emphasize the necessity of developing adaptive conservation strategies for both species.

Large-scale sampling of beetle communities in Laos shows that conversion of natural forests into plantations leads to a decline in family richness and abundance

Rapid economic development can pose a threat to the biodiversity of tropical countries. In Laos, this is manifested by the conversion of natural forests into plantations, even though this area is one of the biodiversity hotspots of Southeast Asia. Beetle communities can be good indicators of the impact of anthropogenic pressure on natural ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed for the first time a large-scale inventory of Coleoptera to assess the ecological and anthropogenic drivers of beetle communities in Laos. We examined beetle communities (described at the family level) across the country, located in distinct habitat types, in order to understand the impact of the conversion of natural forest into plantations. We found that beetle abundance had declined in plantations compared to natural forests. At the same time, we observed fewer beetle families in plantations overall, but at the scale of sampling sites there was no difference in local richness compared to natural forests, suggesting a homogenization of beetle communities in anthropogenic habitats. Although results are certainly sensitive to our coarse classification of beetle specimens into families, the negative impact of the conversion of natural tropical forests into agriculture area can still be clearly demonstrated. Our findings highlight that it is possible to make use of unstructured large-scale inventories to explore how beetle communities responds to landscape changes induced by human activities. We suggest that sampling beetle communities can be used as an ecological indicator to monitor anthropogenic impacts on tropical ecosystems.

Stacked distribution models predict climate-driven loss of variation in leaf phenology at continental scales

Climate change is having profound effects on species distributions and is likely altering the distribution of genetic variation across landscapes. Maintaining population genetic diversity is essential for the survival of species facing rapid environmental change, and variation loss will further ecological and evolutionary change. We used trait values of spring foliar leaf-out phenology of 400 genotypes from three geographically isolated populations of Populus angustifolia grown under common conditions, in concert with stacked species distribution modeling, to ask: (a) How will climate change alter phenological variation across the P. angustifolia species-range, and within populations; and (b) will the distribution of phenological variation among and within populations converge (become more similar) in future climatic conditions? Models predicted a net loss of phenological variation in future climate scenarios on 20-25% of the landscape across the species' range, with the trailing edge population losing variation on as much as 47% of the landscape. Our models also predicted that population's phenological trait distributions will become more similar over time. This stacked distribution model approach allows for the identification of areas expected to experience the greatest loss of genetically based functional trait variation and areas that may be priorities to conserve as future genetic climate refugia.